scholarly journals Fiscal Rule and Public Investment in Chile

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Rodrigo Fuentes ◽  
Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel ◽  
Raimundo Soto
Keyword(s):  
Public Debt ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Two Dimensions ◽  
The Public ◽  
Fiscal Rule ◽  
Substantial Progress ◽  
Escape Clauses ◽  
Empirical Approaches

This paper reviews the design and operation of the Chilean fiscal rule in the past 30 years. Using different empirical approaches, we assess its impact on fiscal procyclicality, public debt, and public investment. While there has been substantial progress in building a modern institutional framework for fiscal policy, we find that the rule is incomplete in two dimensions: it lacks an escape clause, and it needs to supplement the budget balance rule with a debt rule. The former is seen in the pervasive inability of the authorities to steer fiscal accounts back to their long-term sustainable path after the rule was breached the rule in 2009. The latter issue is illustrated by the speedy build-up of the public debt as a result of the need to finance fiscal deficits. We do not find, nevertheless, a negative impact of the rule on public investment. We propose reforms to improve on transparency and accountability, as well as to supplement the rule with escape clauses and a debt anchor.

scholarly journals The Risk of Long-Term Financing of Public Investments

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 42
Author(s):  
Krzysztof Jarosiński ◽  
Benedykt Opałka
Keyword(s):  
Public Debt ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Capital Expenditure ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Risk Category ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
The Public ◽  
Public Investments ◽  
The Impact

The risk of financing of public investments is a phenomenon that accompanies development processes in a permanent manner. Investments in the public sector are generally characterized by relatively long implementation cycles and involve significant capital expenditure and the necessity of often parallel running a large number of investment projects. In the processes of this type of investment a specific risk category of financing of this type of investment is quite often taken into account, given that such projects are financed mainly from budgetary resources: the state budget and self-government budgets. Economic practice indicates an importance of the proper selection of the method of the financing of new investments and taking into account new funds from various sources. This situation is often the result of a shortage of budgetary resources from which public investments could be financed. There may be difficulties in financing investments resulting from the emergence of a risk of budgetary deficit and the public debt. This risk may have a negative impact on investment decisions and may adversely affect the future course of ongoing investment projects. The purpose of the paper is to undertake studies on the conditions of financing investments from the point of view of the possibility of budget deficit and public debt and the impact of changes in the financial situation on the overall level of risk of public investment. The text is an invitation to undertake a broader discussion on financing public investments in conditions of limited public financial resources.

scholarly journals Fiscal maneuver and restructuring the Russian economy

2017 ◽  
pp. 5-27 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Kudrin ◽  
I. Sokolov
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Economic Growth ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Physical Capital ◽  
The Public ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
General Government ◽  
Fiscal Rule

The paper discusses fiscal policy parameters for the period through 2024. The suggested way to ensure long-term fiscal stability is stabilization of both the general government revenues and expenditure in percent of GDP at levels differing by the public debt service payments, and then applying a new version of the fiscal rule. Redistribution of fiscal spending from “unproductive” to “productive” areas (primarily investment in human and physical capital) is considered as a way to boost economic growth. Possible use of additional spending on education, public health, and transport system is presented, as well as optimization of expenditures in “nonproductive” areas.

scholarly journals Role of Governance in Debt-Growth Relationship: Evidence from Panel Data Estimations

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 5954
Author(s):  
Qamar Abbas ◽  
Li Junqing ◽  
Muhammad Ramzan ◽  
Sumbal Fatima
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Linear Pattern ◽  
The Public ◽  
Mediating Role ◽  
National Output ◽  
State Governance

This paper provides an empirical analysis of the relationship between debt and national output mediated by a measure of the quality of state governance. Using WGIs dataset of 106 countries for the period 1996–2015, the paper analyzes the mediated effect of governance on debt-growth relationship. For this purpose, we use the fixed effect (LSDV) and system GMM estimation technique in order to overcome the possible problem of endogeneity. Results show the non-linear pattern between public debt and economic growth via governance. Although, public debt has negative impact on economic growth, but the results are statistically positive and significant when public debt is interacted with governance, which confirms that governance is a channel by which public debt influences economic growth. Moreover, we calculate the threshold of governance which shows that the public debt has positive impact on economic growth when the governance level is higher than the threshold and adversely affects the economic growth in the case of low level of governance than threshold. Evidence from this study reveals the fact that governance plays a mediating role in debt-growth relationship as there is a pattern of complementarity between public debt and governance: the higher the level of governance, the lesser the adverse effect of public debt on economic growth.

Saudi Aramco signals fresh momentum behind IPO plans

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Investment Fund ◽  
Minority Shareholders ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
Original Plan ◽  
Dominant State ◽  
Market Capitalisation

Significance Reports last month that Aramco had selected Lazard for a contract to work as adviser on the IPO breathed new life into a deal that has been marking time since mid-2018. Prospective investors have also been encouraged by Aramco’s recent announcement of interim results, marking a further development in public disclosure following the successful 12-billion-dollar bond issue in April. The original plan was to offer a 5% stake to generate 100 billion dollars for the Public Investment Fund (PIF), based on a 2-trillion-dollar valuation. Impacts The new advisory team may recommend modifying the planned IPO terms, especially given Aramco’s acquisition of 70% of SABIC. The IPO will give Aramco an opportunity to elaborate further its long-term strategy to adapt to the global shift away from fossil fuels. A listing of Aramco’s shares would boost Saudi market capitalisation and attract additional investment inflows. The interests of new minority shareholders and the dominant state shareholder could diverge, including over dividend policy.

scholarly journals Public Investment in Bolivia

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 (151) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yehenew Endegnanew ◽  
Dawit Tessema
Keyword(s):  
Public Debt ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Structural Model ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
External Current ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
The Public ◽  
Current Account Deficits ◽  
Social And Economic Development ◽  
The Face

Bolivia’s “Patriotic Agenda 2025” sets targets for social and economic development propelled by state-led industrialization under a five-year development plan (2016–2020). Large-scale public investment has aimed to fill infrastructure gaps and raise productivity to ensure sustained medium-term growth. Pursuit of these goals in a period of lower hydrocarbon revenues has, however, contributed to widening fiscal and external current account deficits. The paper uses a structural model to outline different scenarios for the level of public investment in the face of declining hydrocarbon revenues. It finds that if public investment is sustained at current levels as a share of GDP while hydrocarbon revenues continue to decline, the sustainability of the public debt could be called into question.

scholarly journals DISCUSSION QUESTIONS OF ESSENCE OFTHE PUBLIC DEBT RISKS AND PROBLEMS OF THEIR EVALUATION IN UKRAINE

2017 ◽  
pp. 121-131
Author(s):  
Nadiia LUBKEY
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Debt Management ◽  
The Public ◽  
Socio Economic Development ◽  
Significant Negative Impact ◽  
Country Analysis ◽  
Methodological Approaches

Introduction. The significant and constantly increasing volume of public debt of Ukraine, its irrational structure, inefficient use of borrowed government loans lead to growth of debt risks and decrease of the state debt sustainability. For a successful debt management we need to apply effective risk management ofpublic debt. Purpose. The aim of this research is to clarify the essence of the public debt risk; to analyze the methodological approaches to their evaluation; to determine the main directions for the risk management of public debt, as well as the ways to improve the current methodology forassessing public debt risk in Ukraine. Results. Based on studies of different approaches to interpreting the essence ofthe public debt risk we have established that risk of public debt caused by the presence ofthe probability the formation of such debt parameters that may have significant negative impact on the socio-economic development ofthe country. Analysis ofthe main approaches to assessing of public debt risks revealed a number of shortcomings in current Ukrainian methodology. The main directions ofpublic debt risk management are: managing the risks associated with large amounts of public debt; debt management risks caused by irrational structure of public debt; managing the risks associated with the rapid growth of the public debt; risk management related to the inefficient use ofgovernment loans. Conclusion. The current methodology for assessing the risks associated with debt management used in Ukraine needs to be improved. In our opinion such methodologies must necessarily contain the indicators of effectiveness of government borrowing.

scholarly journals Imbalance of the public finance in the context of Keynesian and Non-Keynesian effects of fiscal policy limitation

2017 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 27-32
Author(s):  
Joanna Stawska
Keyword(s):  
Public Finance ◽  
Economic Growth ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
The Public ◽  
Methods Of Analysis ◽  
Restrictive Policy

The purpose of this article is to point out the importance of the size of public debt and deficit in the context of Keynesian and non-Keynesian effects of fiscal policy limitation. To achieve this objective primarily were used methods of analysis of the available literature and presentation of statistical data. Considerations include, among others, the presentation of public debt and deficit in the context of economic growth. Expansionary fiscal policy often caused by economic fluctuations contributes to the deepening of public finance imbalance with frequent decline in GDP growth. The restrictive policy has an influence on improving the situation of the public finance sector in the long-term with at least moderate economic growth.

scholarly journals Deuda pública en México: dinámica e implicaciones de política

2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (71) ◽  
pp. 22-43
Author(s):  
Oshiel Martínez Chapa ◽  
Jorge Eduardo Salazar Castillo ◽  
Saul Roberto Quispe Aruquipa
Keyword(s):  
Public Debt ◽  
Research Question ◽  
Social Spending ◽  
World Population ◽  
The Public ◽  
Oil Resources ◽  
Public Credit ◽  
Public Resources ◽  
The Cost

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the factors that have driven the public debt in Mexico and its consequences on the economy. The hypothesis proposed is that the increase in debt is related to factors such as discretion in the management of public resources, the guarantee of oil resources, the cost of financial bailouts and the growing social spending exercised. The research question is: How has public debt evolved in the medium and long term, and what are the consequences? The methodology used is qualitative in that it analyzes the facts and documents, and the second is quantitative in that it uses a regression model in which a growth rate of the variable in question is used. The data come from institutions such as the Bank of Mexico, the World Bank, the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP), as well as World Population Review. The paper concludes by highlighting the need for governments to adopt responsible policies in order to influence growth and economic development, and not that austerity policies cause low investment and unemployment in the country.

scholarly journals The Public Debt of Latvia: Short-Term and Long-Terms Aspects

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Staņislavs Keišs ◽  
Alla Seregina
Keyword(s):  
Public Debt ◽  
Debt Management ◽  
Annual Reports ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Debt Overhang ◽  
The Public ◽  
High Level ◽  
Criteria For Evaluation ◽  
The Eu

The article investigates the structure and dynamics of public debt of Latvia for the period from 2006–2016 year. The relevance of the study long-term effects of public debt on the economy of Latvia is predetermined by a significant increase in its volume of low GDP growth rates in recent years. This article discusses conceptual approaches and criteria for evaluation of the public debt. An analysis of the main reasons for the growth of public debt of Latvia after joining the EU, considers its specific characteristics and consequences as compared with the more developed EU countries on the basis of these annual reports of Latvia Treasury over the past ten years. Analysis of the structure of the debt of Latvia on maturity shows that an effective public debt management necessarily involves consideration of the long-term effects of the growth of public debt to the public. High level of the external indebtedness in the structure of Latvian public debt is a factor of the growth of “debt overhang” even following Maastricht criterions of public debt. As a result of the research is justification of differentiated approach necessity to the evaluation of public debt with considering of intertemporal effects.

scholarly journals Fiscal Rules, Automatic Stabilizers and Discretionary Fiscal Actions: Analyzing an Emerging Economy

2015 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 25
Author(s):  
Ricardo Ramalhete Moreira
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Emerging Economy ◽  
Fiscal Rules ◽  
The Public ◽  
Vec Model ◽  
Fiscal Rule ◽  
Automatic Stabilizers

This article analyzes the nature of the fiscal rule in Brazil, over the period from January 2005 to July 2012, using a VEC model. The initial findings identify a (weak) fiscal rule, as nominal deficits react counter-cyclically to domestic public debt and inflation changes. However, when we isolate the discretionary component of the fiscal policy its pro-cyclical bias can be highlighted. The estimates contribute to understand the preliminary findings and why such a policy is not enough to impose a sustainable downturn movement on the public debt / GDP ratio in Brazil over the last years.

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