scholarly journals DISCUSSION QUESTIONS OF ESSENCE OFTHE PUBLIC DEBT RISKS AND PROBLEMS OF THEIR EVALUATION IN UKRAINE

2017 ◽  
pp. 121-131
Author(s):  
Nadiia LUBKEY

Introduction. The significant and constantly increasing volume of public debt of Ukraine, its irrational structure, inefficient use of borrowed government loans lead to growth of debt risks and decrease of the state debt sustainability. For a successful debt management we need to apply effective risk management ofpublic debt. Purpose. The aim of this research is to clarify the essence of the public debt risk; to analyze the methodological approaches to their evaluation; to determine the main directions for the risk management of public debt, as well as the ways to improve the current methodology forassessing public debt risk in Ukraine. Results. Based on studies of different approaches to interpreting the essence ofthe public debt risk we have established that risk of public debt caused by the presence ofthe probability the formation of such debt parameters that may have significant negative impact on the socio-economic development ofthe country. Analysis ofthe main approaches to assessing of public debt risks revealed a number of shortcomings in current Ukrainian methodology. The main directions ofpublic debt risk management are: managing the risks associated with large amounts of public debt; debt management risks caused by irrational structure of public debt; managing the risks associated with the rapid growth of the public debt; risk management related to the inefficient use ofgovernment loans. Conclusion. The current methodology for assessing the risks associated with debt management used in Ukraine needs to be improved. In our opinion such methodologies must necessarily contain the indicators of effectiveness of government borrowing.

Author(s):  
Sergii Stepanenko

Introduction. Solving the problem of public debt management is one of the key factors of economic stability in the country. The budget capacity of the state and the stability of its national currency largely depend on the nature of the debt problem settlement. The need to address these issues requires finding ways to improve the mechanism of public debt management and servicing in Ukraine. The purpose of the article is to study the public debt dynamics of Ukraine and model the nature of its impact on key socio-economic indicators in modern conditions. Results. The dynamics and structure of the state and state-guaranteed debt of Ukraine for the period 2013-2019 are analyzed. The negative dynamics of the growth of the total amount of debt during 2014-2018 is determined. In 2019, the total amount of debt in hryvnia decreased due to the reduction of external and guaranteed debt, but in dollar terms increased, which threatens the financial stability of the country. Using the software product EViews 10 based on the Granger causality test, the system of causal relationships between the dynamics of public debt (index) and indicators of socio-economic development: GDP growth rate, industrial production index, real income index, employment index, the index of exports of goods and services, the index of imports of goods and services has been researched. On the basis of the established causal relations the autoregressive influence models of the public debt dynamics on indicators of social and economic development are constructed, on which the error does not exceed 5%. Conclusions. According to the results of the constructed models, the negative impact of public debt on the main socio-economic indicators is determined, which is confirmed by the negative values of the elasticity indexes of socio-economic indicators. The built models serve as a preventive tool of public debt management, with the help of which it is possible to promptly respond to threats to socio-economic development by monitoring the level of public debt dynamics. Key words: public debt, public debt management, socio-economic development, financial security of the state.


Author(s):  
Valentyna Makogon

Relevance of research topic. In the context of institutional reforms, the issue of the limited state financial resources for the implementation of the tasks and functions entrusted to them by state authorities and local self-government is being updated, which predetermines the development of a system of public debt management, which is a powerful instrument of macroeconomic policy. At the same time, the growth of the level of public debt in both developed and transformational economies is conditioned by a number of factors, the most important of which are: the formation of a budget deficit that is of a permanent nature; the need for public expenditures aimed at ensuring macroeconomic stability and accelerating the pace of economic growth, the development of the social sphere. Formulation of the problem. In the context of institutional reforms, the important task is to develop a debt strategy that will ensure the concentration of limited investment resources in those sectors of the economy that will accelerate the pace of economic growth, which requires further scientific research of the theoretical and applied aspects of the formation and implementation of budgetary and debt policies, their coherence, improvement the mechanism of public debt management. At the same time, the choice of tools for managing public debt can both negatively and positively affect macroeconomic stability in the country. Analysis of recent research and publications. The problem of public debt management is rather widespread in scientific research. These are works by well-known domestic and foreign scholars: J. Buchanan, U. Mitchell, J. M. Keynes, T. Bogolib, I. Zapatrina, L. Lisyak, I. Chugunov and others. Identification of unexplored parts of the general problem. The above issues are actualized in connection with the intensification of globalization processes, the adverse external and internal economic environment, which requires the solution of a number of specific tasks related to the formation of public debt at an economically sound level. Setting the task, the purpose of the study. The objectives of the study are: to reveal the role of the system of public debt management in the regulation of socio-economic processes, to justify the relationship between debt and budget policy; carry out an analysis and assessment of Ukraine's state debt; to identify the main factors influencing the level of public debt; to clarify the provision for improving the efficiency of the mechanism of public debt management. The purpose of the study is to substantiate the priority tasks of debt policy in the context of institutional transformations. Method or methodology of conducting research. The article uses a set of methods of scientific research: system approach, statistical analysis, structuring, analysis, synthesis, and others. Presentation of the main material (results of work). The role of public debt in state regulation of social and economic development of the country is determined. The analysis and evaluation of public debt has been carried out. The priority tasks of the debt policy in the context of institutional transformations are substantiated. The field of application of results. The results of this study can be applied in the process of formation and implementation of Ukraine's debt policy, reforming the system of public finances. Conclusions according to the article. Ensuring macroeconomic stability in the country involves the development of an effective strategy for managing the public debt, justifying the strategic priorities of debt policy, based on realistic forecast indicators of the country's economic development. The improvement of the mechanism for managing public debt should be based on a clear combination of legally defined budgetary and debt policy instruments. The use of indicators of a structured, cyclically-adjusted balance can increase the validity of fiscal and debt policies. The high level of government debt and significant budget deficits create risks for financial and macroeconomic stability, their potential negative impact on economic development is far more devastating than the pro-cyclical nature of fiscal policies that only affect the economic dynamics in the short term. Accordingly, the important task of fiscal policy is to prevent the growth of public debt and budget deficit while limiting the negative impact of further fiscal consolidation on aggregate demand. The article defines the strategic priorities of debt policy in the context of institutional transformations.


2021 ◽  
Vol 25 (6) ◽  
pp. 68-84
Author(s):  
I. V. Naumov ◽  
N. L. Nikulina

The subject of this research is public debt and its impact on the dynamics of the gross regional product (GRP) of Russian regions. The aim of the paper is to study and scenario forecast the dynamics of changes in the internal public debt of Russian regions and model its impact on the gross regional product. The relevance of the study is due to the fact that most regions in Russia are forced to increase their internal public debt to cover the budget deficit and attract additional resources to solve important problems of socio-economic development and implement strategic projects and programs. The scientific novelty of the research consists in the development of a methodological approach to modelling and scenario forecasting of the level of GRP of different groups of regions, taking into account the dynamics of changes in their public debt using ARIMA modelling methods and panel regression analysis. The authors apply the methods of panel regression analysis and ARIMA modelling. The authors theoretically substantiated that public debt has a different effect on the GRP of Russian regions, grouped the regions according to the identified trends in the dynamics of public debt (the first group — regions with the dynamics of debt reduction over the period from 2005 to 2019, the second group — with the all-Russian trend of debt reduction since 2017, and the third group — with the dynamics of increasing debt over the period under review); developed a methodological approach to modelling and scenario forecasting of the GRP level of the Russian regions, taking into account the dynamics of changes in their public debt; carried out ARIMA forecasting of the dynamics of the public debt of different groups of regions and built regression models of the influence of the dynamics of the public debt on the GRP of Russian regions within the selected groups; formed forecast scenarios for changes of the GRP level of regions, taking into account the identified dynamics of transformation of their internal public debt. Conclusions: public debt has a negative impact on the dynamics of the GRP of Moscow and the Moscow region and a positive effect on the dynamics of the GRP of the regions of the second and third groups. The findings of the study may be used by the federal and regional executive authorities to find ways to reduce public debt and increase the level of socio-economic development of territories.


Author(s):  
O. Bilyk ◽  
◽  
Y. Blynda ◽  
N. Krokhmalna ◽  
◽  
...  

The road network is one of the most important branches of the economy, which performs the function of a kind of circulatory system in the complex organism of the country. It not only helps to meet the needs of the economy and the population in transportation, but together with the cities forms a "framework" of the territory, has a significant impact on the dynamism and efficiency of socio-economic development of individual regions and the country as a whole. World experience shows that without a developed transport, automotive network can not create an efficient market economy. Ensuring the development of the road network and improvement their transport and operational condition is a necessary condition for further socio-economic development of the state and society. Unsatisfactory condition of the road network has a negative impact on the social and economic situation of the country, international image and key indicators such as gross domestic product, development of productive forces, state budget revenues, employment, performance of road and other modes of transport and more. The level of financing the road networks for the last 10 years makes 14-34 percent of the minimum necessary need for repair and maintenance of a network of highways defined by scientists. Due to insufficient funding, the pace of implementation of new technologies, machines, mechanisms, modern materials and structures is slow and does not meet current needs. The process of business investment in the road industry in Ukraine in modern conditions is risky due to imperfect legislation, low development of technology, which can be eliminated through the introduction of concession approaches in the development of the industry. The impact of public-private partnership on social risks is considered and ways to minimize them are suggested. Solving the problems of financial support for the repair, reconstruction and maintenance of roads requires the integration of State efforts, regional and local authorities, research and practice of their application, legal framework, as well as financial and material resources in international and Euroregional cooperation . It should be noted that the most problematic in terms of effective provision of transportation by state roads are sections of roads on international transport corridors. On the one hand, the financial and economic capabilities of the state and the region are still insufficient for their reconstruction, and on the other - the postponement of these problems has a negative impact on the national economy and contradicts international trends, prospects for the transport network. The object of the article is the process of applying the concession to improve the financing of costs for repair, reconstruction and maintenance of roads in terms of social risks. The subject of the article is the socio-economic relations between the subjects of the concession and the public. The main purpose of the article is to substantiate the need for the introduction of a road concession, taking into account developed recommendations for social risk management. In accordance with the purpose of the article, the authors set the following goals: - definition and analysis of the conditions of public-private partnership in Ukraine; - identification of the causes and consequences of the development of social risks in terms of road concessions based on the analysis of international experience in the application of tolls on highways; - substantiation of the main directions of social risk management in the conditions of the road concession and formation of the corresponding conclusions. The result of research is the authors' proposed ways to minimize social risks in terms of road concessions.


Author(s):  
Mariia Aleksandrova ◽  
Vita Dovgaliuk ◽  
Klym Fursov

The article reveals the essence of state debt security and examines the threats to state debt security in the context of minimizing their negative impact and increasing the efficiency of the public debt management system. In determining the essence of state debt security and the study of threats to state debt security in the context of minimizing their negative impact and improving the efficiency of public debt management system, it was determined that debt security is the basis of economic sovereignty, resilience of its financial system to internal and external threats and implementation socio-economic strategy of sustainable development. The study is devoted to identifying the features of the current system of debt security in Ukraine and a set of threats to the growth of debt security in the country. One of the financial instruments of the national economy is loans from international financial organizations, which have a targeted strategic direction of innovation. These borrowings contribute to long-term economic growth. It is the inefficient management of such debt that leads to the disruption of the economic system, in particular to its imbalance and increase its vulnerability to factors of negative foreign economic influence. Therefore, the strategic goal of reducing the threat of negative impact on debt security is to determine the optimal policy for managing both external and internal debt of the state. Again, debt management policy is a condition for the stability and efficiency of the state economy. As a result of the study, the main reasons for the deterioration of Ukraine’s debt security can be identified, in particular: a complex political crisis, military conflict, deep economic recession, the existence of obligations to meet the state’s needs in natural gas and pensions, lack of sufficient political will to reform and apply unpopular measures to stabilize the economic situation. Coordinating the public debt management mechanism with Ukraine’s financial stabilization strategy will provide an opportunity to analyze the financial threats facing Ukraine in the global crisis and develop a common framework for all bodies, public authorities, which represent the external debt of Ukraine. When appropriate measures are taken, public debt coverage will be carried out mainly not by increasing the tax burden, but by economic growth. After studying the state of Ukraine’s debt security, conclusions were drawn on its increase by stabilizing the national currency, optimizing the structure of budget expenditures, stimulating the state domestic market, directing external borrowing to implement investment development programs and developing a promising debt strategy.


Author(s):  
Olena Pikaliuk ◽  
◽  
Dmitry Kovalenko ◽  

One of the main criteria for economic development is the size of the public debt and its dynamics. The article considers the impact of public debt on the financial security of Ukraine. The views of scientists on the essence of public debt and financial security of the state are substantiated. An analysis of the dynamics and structure of public debt of Ukraine for 2014-2019. It is proved that one of the main criteria for economic development is the size of public debt and its dynamics. State budget deficit, attracting and using loans to cover it have led to the formation and significant growth of public debt in Ukraine. The volume of public debt indicates an increase in the debt security of the state, which is a component of financial security. Therefore, the issue of the impact of public debt on the financial security of Ukraine is becoming increasingly relevant. The constant growth and large amounts of debt make it necessary to study it, which will have a positive impact on economic processes that will ensure the stability of the financial system and enhance its security.


Author(s):  
E.G. Mukhina ◽  
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A.U. Esembekova ◽  
A.Yu. Anfalova ◽  
◽  
...  

The article discusses methodological approaches to assessing the socio-economic development of the territory. Based on the studied techniques, the author proposed a methodology in the article. For a comprehensive assessment of the level of socio-economic development of the territory, indicators borrowed from the work of R.M. Gazizov: social and economic. The obtained indicators are equated with the coefficient type, generalized indicators are formed and the type of territory is determined according to the ranking.


2019 ◽  
Vol 40 (3) ◽  
pp. 89-95
Author(s):  
V. N. Ostretsov ◽  
T. L. Konanova

The article discusses the factors of social and economic development, which are the basis for the choice of the system of indicators necessary to assess the level of development of the enterprise. The article also presents economic and mathematical models of the levels of economic and social development of the enterprise, on the basis of which the forecast of development of the enterprise is carried out.


2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 5954
Author(s):  
Qamar Abbas ◽  
Li Junqing ◽  
Muhammad Ramzan ◽  
Sumbal Fatima

This paper provides an empirical analysis of the relationship between debt and national output mediated by a measure of the quality of state governance. Using WGIs dataset of 106 countries for the period 1996–2015, the paper analyzes the mediated effect of governance on debt-growth relationship. For this purpose, we use the fixed effect (LSDV) and system GMM estimation technique in order to overcome the possible problem of endogeneity. Results show the non-linear pattern between public debt and economic growth via governance. Although, public debt has negative impact on economic growth, but the results are statistically positive and significant when public debt is interacted with governance, which confirms that governance is a channel by which public debt influences economic growth. Moreover, we calculate the threshold of governance which shows that the public debt has positive impact on economic growth when the governance level is higher than the threshold and adversely affects the economic growth in the case of low level of governance than threshold. Evidence from this study reveals the fact that governance plays a mediating role in debt-growth relationship as there is a pattern of complementarity between public debt and governance: the higher the level of governance, the lesser the adverse effect of public debt on economic growth.


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