scholarly journals CRITICAL FACTORS OF THE NATURAL RUBBER PRICE INSTABILITY IN THE WORLD MARKET

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 199-208
Author(s):  
Aye Aye Khin ◽  
Raymond Ling Leh Bin ◽  
Ooi Chee Keong ◽  
Foo Win Yie ◽  
Ng Jye Liang
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Natural Rubber ◽  
World Market ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Rank Test ◽  
Critical Factors ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
The World ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Price Instability

Purpose:  Natural rubber (NR) production has a long history and has been contributing as one of the most important economic sectors in Malaysia recently. In enhancing the Malaysian rubber economy, it is crucial to find a balance between supply-side and demand-side considerations in order to stabilize the NR price in the worldwide market.  This has raised the motivation and objectives of this research is to investigate the critical factors affecting the NR price instability in the world market, and to estimate and predict the NR price instability and to examine the most related factors that influence the price model by using ex-post and ex-ante forecast analysis.  Methodology:  Number of profound research methods Vector Error Correction Method (VECM) by Gujarati and Porter; cointegration rank test by Dwyer; and ex-post forecast method by Pindyck and Rubinfeld have been utilized in this study. The data used from 2008 January to 2016 December: monthly time series data.  Results: The results show that the explanatory variables of NR production, total NR consumption, crude oil price, and Shanghai NR price indicate a significant relationship with Malaysian NR price (SMR20), on the contrary, the exchange rate is not significant.  Implications: The outcome of the study is closely related to the current situation of the exchange rate appreciation in the late of 2017 that may benefit the decision-making process of economic planning for the NR production stability, and price in the worldwide NR market as well.

scholarly journals MOVEMENT OF INTRA-INDUSTRY TRADE INDEX IN TERMS OF EXCHANGE RATE CHANGE: THEORETICAL ANALYSIS BASED ON A TWO-STAGE PRODUCTION MODEL

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 36-48
Author(s):  
Nobuhiro Takahashi ◽  
◽  
Mita Takahashi ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Home Country ◽  
World Market ◽  
Production Model ◽  
Two Stage ◽  
Industry Trade ◽  
World Price ◽  
The World ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Index

This paper analyzes the movement of intra-industry trade index when the exchange rate or the world price changes. In our two-stage production model, firms construct factories in a foreign country by foreign direct investment (FDI). The firms export components from the home country to the foreign factories, and import final products from the foreign factories. The foreign factories also sell the final products in the world market. Under this knockdown system, we research the movement of the intra-industry trade index of the home country. This paper shows that appreciation of the exchange rate does not always raise the intra-industry trade index. We also show that changes in the world price have the similar effect on the movement of the intra-industry trade index.

scholarly journals Application of SARIMA model to forecasting the natural rubber price in the world market

2018 ◽  
Vol 17 (06) ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
Nhien T. Pham
Keyword(s):  
Natural Rubber ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Information Criterion ◽  
World Market ◽  
Production Costs ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
P Value ◽  
Rubber Plantation ◽  
The World

This study was conducted to develop a forecasting model to predict the price natural rubber in the world market by using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA). The dataset for model development was collected from series data of average monthly closing average prices in the natural rubber - Ribbed Smoked Sheet No.3 (RSS3) on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM) for the period of January 2007 - September 2018. The RSS3 price on the TOCOM provided the reference price for natural rubber in the world market. It resulted SARIMA(2,1,2)(1,1,1)12 model was selected as the best-fit model. The model achieved 0.000 for Probability value (P-value). 8.86 for Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and 9.01 for Schwarz Information Criterion (SIC); 6.68% for Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and 21.43 for Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). This model was used to forecast the world's natural rubber price during October 2018 - December 2020. This study may be helpful to the farmers, traders, and the governments of the world's important natural rubber producing countries to plan policies to reduce natural rubber production costs and stabilize the natural rubber price in the future, such as by setting suitable areas for natural rubber plantation in each country and defining appropriate and sustainable alternative crop areas in each country

Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Nilai Tukar Dollar Amerika Serikat Terhadap Rupiah Tahun 2000–2013

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 177-191
Author(s):  
Rizki Rahma Kusumadewi ◽  
Wahyu Widayat
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Arch Model ◽  
United States Dollar ◽  
The Exchange Rate

Exchange rate is one tool to measure a country’s economic conditions. The growth of a stable currency value indicates that the country has a relatively good economic conditions or stable. This study has the purpose to analyze the factors that affect the exchange rate of the Indonesian Rupiah against the United States Dollar in the period of 2000-2013. The data used in this study is a secondary data which are time series data, made up of exports, imports, inflation, the BI rate, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and the money supply (M1) in the quarter base, from first quarter on 2000 to fourth quarter on 2013. Regression model time series data used the ARCH-GARCH with ARCH model selection indicates that the variables that significantly influence the exchange rate are exports, inflation, the central bank rate and the money supply (M1). Whereas import and GDP did not give any influence.

DAYA SAING EKSPOR KARET ALAM TIGA NEGARA ITRC (INDONESIA, THAILAND, MALAYSIA) DI PASAR INTERNASIONAL PERIODE 1994-2018

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 81-87
Author(s):  
Shinta Dwi Ardanari ◽  
Rynalto Mukiwihando
Keyword(s):  
Natural Rubber ◽  
Analytical Method ◽  
International Market ◽  
World Market ◽  
Competitive Advantages ◽  
Market Demand ◽  
Export Share ◽  
Intense Competition ◽  
Time Period ◽  
The World

ABSTRACTShare of Indonesia's export value of natural rubber in the international market is almost always below Thailand, which is one of the competiting countries. The others countries began to become a threat to Indonesia because their exports share of natural rubber showed an increasing. This indicates that there is intense competition in the international market. As a country with the largest plantation area in the world, Indonesia should be superior. But this can be an opportunity to be able to compete in the world market so it is important to be managed more deeply so that it can create competitive advantages that can increase competitiveness. This study aims to determine the position of the competitiveness of natural rubber exports for the three countries of ITRC in the international market. The analytical method used is dynamic RCA. The results showed that all products of natural rubber coded HS 400110, 400121, 400122, 400129 and 400130 were experiencing a decline in growth in the export share of the three countries of ITRC : Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia, but the market demand conditions for these products were declining in that time period.

An Analysis of the Dynamic Relationships between Inflation Volatility, Exchange Rate and Output Gap Volatility in Turkey

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 4772-4787
Author(s):  
Sevilay Küçüksakarya ◽  
Mustafa Özer
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Inflation Volatility ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
The Exchange Rate

This study investigates the short and long-run relationships between Inflation volatility, exchange rate, and output gap volatility using the ARDL bounds testing approach in Turkey. Also, we repeat the estimates by using the output gap as well. Moreover, we examine the causal relationship among these variables by using Toda-Yamamoto and frequency domain causality tests. For this purpose, the study uses quarterly time series data between 2005 Q1 and 2020 Q4. Both short and long-run results of the ARDL estimates indicate that there are statistically significant relationships between exchange rate and inflation volatility, between output gap volatility and inflation volatility, and between the output gap and inflation volatility. As expected long-run effect of the exchange rate on inflation, volatility is negative, and the effects of both output volatility and output gap on inflation volatility are positive. Also, causality tests results indicate that changes in the exchange rate, output gap volatility, and output gap will have permanent and temporary causal effects on inflation volatility. Therefore, the study results provide new evidence about the exchange rate, output gap volatility, and output gap. The policymakers should carefully consider these results to implement appropriate policies to reduce inflation volatility.

Pengaruh Nilai Tukar (Kurs) dan Inflasi terhadap Tingkat  Non Performing  Financing (NPF) Pada Bank Syariah

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 214-224
Author(s):  
Muhammad Arfan Harahap ◽  
Anjur Perkasa Alam ◽  
Muspita Pradila
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Sampling Technique ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Islamic Banks ◽  
Exogenous Variables ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
Analysis Technique ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Conventional Banks

The level of Non-Performing Financing at Islamic Banks is higher than conventional banks, while in terms of total assets, Islamic Banks are smaller. This study aims to analyze the effect of exogenous variables consisting of the level of inflation and the exchange rate of the rupiah against non Performing Financing in Islamic banks. This study uses time series data from 2016-2018. The population in this study consisted of Islamic Commercial Banks. The sampling technique used in this research is purposive sampling technique. The data analysis technique used is Multiple Linear Regression. The results showed that the inflation variable had a positive and significant effect on Non Performing Financing. While the Exchange Rate has no effect on Non Performing Finance. Meanwhile, simultaneously the two independent variables affect the independent variables.

Switching to Floating Exchange Rate in Russia under the Strategy of Price Stability

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 (4) ◽  
pp. 11-29
Author(s):  
Sergey Dubinin ◽  
Nina Miklashevskaya
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Main Part ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
World Market ◽  
Emerging Countries ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Policy Issues ◽  
The World ◽  
Floating Exchange Rate ◽  
Rate Policy

The article focuses on the implementation of the exchange rate policy of the Bank of Russia aimed to switch from the managed arrangement to floating under inflation targeting. It provides a theoretical framework of such policy with special regard to emerging countries. The main part of the article deals with the policy issues, which Russia has been facing within the western sanctions and oil price falling at the world market. It contains the analysis of risks, which countries implementing the switching to floating may be exposed to and which should be taken into account by government authorities. Special attention is paid to the measures of economic policy to minimize the risks. It is concluded that the switching to floating may be appropriate only in case of availability of a set of required conditions.

On the asymmetric response of the exchange rate to shocks in the crude oil market

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 839-852 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huthaifa Alqaralleh
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Financial Crises ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Asymmetric Cointegration

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the nonlinear dynamics in the effects of oil price shocks on the exchange rate for a sample from the Group of Twenty (G20) over the period 1994:1-2019:1. Design/methodology/approach Using monthly time series data covering the period1994:1-2019:1, the author first use the non-parametric triples test of Randles et al. (1980) to ascertain the existence of asymmetric properties in the sample of exchange rates. Then the author used the nonlinear ARDL cointegration approach developed by Shin et al. (2014) to examine the reaction of these exchange rates to the oil price shocks. Findings This study has identified significant evidence that the exchange rate is asymmetrically distributed, with the effect that high appreciation of the exchange rate is followed by slower depreciation. The NARDL results support such asymmetry even more strongly because in the test the exchange rate is shown to react differently in the long term to positive and negative shocks in oil prices. Another major finding was that the speed of adjustment differed over the sample, as the cumulative dynamic multipliers effect highlighted. Research limitations/implications This change in direction and the employment of non-linear technique can be to obtain better insight into the model specification, which the author believes, will not only enhance the findings in the literature but also enhance forecasting and decision-making. Practical implications A practical implication of this change is the possibility that policymakers and participants concerned with exchange rate stability should intervene in the market to alleviate the unfavourable impact of oil price shocks on the exchange rate. Originality/value Addressing this nonlinear dynamic in the effects of oil price shocks on the exchange rate have at least the following two important reasons: asymmetry and regime change are types of nonlinearities that affect the market dynamics, especially, over marked sample period with such financial crises as the global financial crises of 2007, thereby violating the linear models. Adopting an asymmetric cointegration technique permits to incorporate cointegrated positive and negative components of the considered series.

Home Bias in International Macroeconomics

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Viktoria Hnatkovska
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Home Bias ◽  
International Macroeconomics ◽  
World Market ◽  
Labor Income ◽  
Income Risk ◽  
Labor Income Risk ◽  
Equity Home Bias ◽  
The World ◽  
Over Time

Home bias in international macroeconomics refers to the fact that investors around the world tend to allocate majority of their portfolios into domestic assets, despite the potential benefits to be had from international diversification. This phenomenon has been occurring across countries, over time, and across equity or bond portfolios. The bias towards domestic assets tends to be larger in developing countries relative to developed economies, with Europe characterized by the lowest equity home bias, while Central and South America—by the highest equity home bias. In addition, despite the secular decline in the level of equity home bias over time in all countries and regions, home bias still remains a robust feature of the data. Whether home bias is a puzzle depends on the portfolio allocation that one uses as a theoretical benchmark. For instance, home bias in equity portfolio is a puzzle when assessed through the lens of a simple international capital asset pricing model (CAPM) with homogeneous investors. This model predicts that investors should hold world market portfolios, namely a portfolio with the share of domestic asset equal to the share of those assets in the world market portfolio. For instance, since the share of US equity in the world capitalization in 2016 was 56%, then US investors should allocate 56% of their equity portfolio into local assets, while investing the remaining 44% into foreign equities. Instead, foreign equity comprised just 23% of US equity portfolio in 2016, hence the equity home bias. Alternative portfolio benchmark comes from the theories that emphasize costs for trading assets in international financial markets. These include transaction and information costs, differential tax treatments, and more broadly, differences in institutional environments. This research, however, has so far been unable to reach a consensus on the explanatory power of such costs. Yet another theory argues that equity home bias can arise due to the hedging properties of local equity. In particular, local equity can provide insurance from real exchange rate risk and non-tradable income risk (such as labor income risk), and thus a preference towards home equities is not a puzzle, but rather an optimal response to such risks. These theories, main advances and results in the macroeconomic literature on home bias are discussed in this article. It starts by presenting some empirical facts on the extent and dynamics of equity home bias in developed and developing countries. It is then shown how home bias can arise as an equilibrium outcome of the hedging demand in the model with real exchange rate and non-tradable labor income risk. Since solving models with portfolio choice is challenging, the recent advances in solving such models are also outlined in this article. Integrating the portfolio dynamics into models that can generate realistic asset price and exchange rate dynamics remains a fruitful avenue for future research. A discussion of additional open questions in this research agenda and suggestions for further readings are also provided.

The Competitiveness of Polish Apples on International Markets

2017 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 31-43 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paweł Jakub Kraciński
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
International Competitiveness ◽  
World Market ◽  
International Markets ◽  
Competitive Position ◽  
Research Hypothesis ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
The World ◽  
Post Measure

The article presents the problem of competitiveness of Polish apples. In the paper the quantity of production and international trade of was analyzed. Major importers and exporters of apples were identified. In order to assess the international competitiveness ex post measure has been used. The study covered 2004-2015. The assumed research hypothesis has been verified positively. The indicators of the ex-post competitive position indicate that Polish apples were competitive in the world market in the years 2004-2015. Their position was increasing until the last study subperiod (2013-2015), during which, as indicated by some adopted indicators, it started decreasing.

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