scholarly journals Application of SARIMA model to forecasting the natural rubber price in the world market

2018 ◽  
Vol 17 (06) ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
Nhien T. Pham
Keyword(s):  
Natural Rubber ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Information Criterion ◽  
World Market ◽  
Production Costs ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
P Value ◽  
Rubber Plantation ◽  
The World

This study was conducted to develop a forecasting model to predict the price natural rubber in the world market by using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA). The dataset for model development was collected from series data of average monthly closing average prices in the natural rubber - Ribbed Smoked Sheet No.3 (RSS3) on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM) for the period of January 2007 - September 2018. The RSS3 price on the TOCOM provided the reference price for natural rubber in the world market. It resulted SARIMA(2,1,2)(1,1,1)12 model was selected as the best-fit model. The model achieved 0.000 for Probability value (P-value). 8.86 for Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and 9.01 for Schwarz Information Criterion (SIC); 6.68% for Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and 21.43 for Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). This model was used to forecast the world's natural rubber price during October 2018 - December 2020. This study may be helpful to the farmers, traders, and the governments of the world's important natural rubber producing countries to plan policies to reduce natural rubber production costs and stabilize the natural rubber price in the future, such as by setting suitable areas for natural rubber plantation in each country and defining appropriate and sustainable alternative crop areas in each country

scholarly journals CRITICAL FACTORS OF THE NATURAL RUBBER PRICE INSTABILITY IN THE WORLD MARKET

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 199-208
Author(s):  
Aye Aye Khin ◽  
Raymond Ling Leh Bin ◽  
Ooi Chee Keong ◽  
Foo Win Yie ◽  
Ng Jye Liang
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Natural Rubber ◽  
World Market ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Rank Test ◽  
Critical Factors ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
The World ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Price Instability

Purpose:  Natural rubber (NR) production has a long history and has been contributing as one of the most important economic sectors in Malaysia recently. In enhancing the Malaysian rubber economy, it is crucial to find a balance between supply-side and demand-side considerations in order to stabilize the NR price in the worldwide market.  This has raised the motivation and objectives of this research is to investigate the critical factors affecting the NR price instability in the world market, and to estimate and predict the NR price instability and to examine the most related factors that influence the price model by using ex-post and ex-ante forecast analysis.  Methodology:  Number of profound research methods Vector Error Correction Method (VECM) by Gujarati and Porter; cointegration rank test by Dwyer; and ex-post forecast method by Pindyck and Rubinfeld have been utilized in this study. The data used from 2008 January to 2016 December: monthly time series data.  Results: The results show that the explanatory variables of NR production, total NR consumption, crude oil price, and Shanghai NR price indicate a significant relationship with Malaysian NR price (SMR20), on the contrary, the exchange rate is not significant.  Implications: The outcome of the study is closely related to the current situation of the exchange rate appreciation in the late of 2017 that may benefit the decision-making process of economic planning for the NR production stability, and price in the worldwide NR market as well.

DAYA SAING EKSPOR KARET ALAM TIGA NEGARA ITRC (INDONESIA, THAILAND, MALAYSIA) DI PASAR INTERNASIONAL PERIODE 1994-2018

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 81-87
Author(s):  
Shinta Dwi Ardanari ◽  
Rynalto Mukiwihando
Keyword(s):  
Natural Rubber ◽  
Analytical Method ◽  
International Market ◽  
World Market ◽  
Competitive Advantages ◽  
Market Demand ◽  
Export Share ◽  
Intense Competition ◽  
Time Period ◽  
The World

ABSTRACTShare of Indonesia's export value of natural rubber in the international market is almost always below Thailand, which is one of the competiting countries. The others countries began to become a threat to Indonesia because their exports share of natural rubber showed an increasing. This indicates that there is intense competition in the international market. As a country with the largest plantation area in the world, Indonesia should be superior. But this can be an opportunity to be able to compete in the world market so it is important to be managed more deeply so that it can create competitive advantages that can increase competitiveness. This study aims to determine the position of the competitiveness of natural rubber exports for the three countries of ITRC in the international market. The analytical method used is dynamic RCA. The results showed that all products of natural rubber coded HS 400110, 400121, 400122, 400129 and 400130 were experiencing a decline in growth in the export share of the three countries of ITRC : Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia, but the market demand conditions for these products were declining in that time period.

Features of economic development of entrepreneurship in suburban areas of the region

2020 ◽  
pp. 22-25
Author(s):  
Viktoriya Bondarenko
Keyword(s):  
Economic Theory ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
National Economy ◽  
Geographic Area ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
World Market ◽  
Production Costs ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Suburban Areas ◽  
The World

The level of economic development of entrepreneurship in any country in the world is crucial in increasing the competitiveness of the national economy in the world market of goods and services. The activities of economic entities are the driving force for the sustainable development of regions and their suburban areas, and they also impact the welfare of population. The article dwells on the analysis of scientific approaches to the regulation of economic development of enterprises in suburban areas of the region. The article analyzes the scientific approaches to the regulation of economic development of enterprises in suburban areas of the region. According to the well-known classics of the fundamental economic theory of entrepreneurship development (A. Smith, D. Ricardo, V. Laungard, A. Loria) the peculiarities of economic development of entrepreneurship in suburban territories of the region are determined by the possibility of distribution of surplus production, minimum production costs per unit of production, availability of labor resources. In modern economic theory (M. Weber, A. Pre, S.M. Kimelberg, E. Williams, C. Vlachou, O. Iakovidou, J. van Dijk, P. Pellenbarg) the development of entrepreneurship in suburban areas of the region can be determined by institutional, innovation, technological, social, ecological and other features of the economy at the regional, state or world levels. The complex and comprehensive generalization of the features of economic development of entrepreneurship in suburban areas is proposed. There are (1) the type of decision taken by an enterprise to carry out business activities in the relevant suburban area of the region, and (2) the influence of internal and external factors on economic activity. The article argues that large enterprises are guided by more objective decision-making reasons, attaching the most importance to the physical and innovative environment. Medium and small enterprises are mainly focused on getting benefits for the entrepreneur in the short-term time period and location in the nearest geographic area. The attention was paid to the tools of ensuring economic development of entrepreneurship in suburban areas of the region, taking into account institutional changes in the national economy and the experience of developed countries of the world.

How Economic Dependency Was Created Through the WTO: A Case Study of South Korea

2017 ◽  
Vol 33 (4) ◽  
pp. 469-487 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ka Yi Fung
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
World Market ◽  
Production Costs ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Economic Dependency ◽  
The World

Adapting the framework of dependency theory, the article asks how the economic dependency of less developed countries (LDCs) on developed countries (DCs) is created through free trade. This article uses South Korea’s entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO) as a case study to illustrate this economic dependency creation process. Based on second-hand data from existing studies, the European Union, and the WTO, this article finds: (i) due to limited farmland size and high production costs, South Korean agricultural products cannot win a seat in the world market; (ii) the local agricultural sector was destroyed in South Korea because small farmers cannot earn a living by farming; and (iii) since the local agricultural sector cannot support the food demand in South Korea, South Korea now has to import a large amount of food. This article concludes that free trade actually destroys the local agricultural industry and the food security of South Korea, and consequently makes South Korea have to rely heavily on DCs for food import.

scholarly journals Detection of Tea Export Potentiality from Bangladesh in the World Market: An Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Approach

2020 ◽  
pp. 21-29
Author(s):  
A. U. Noman ◽  
S. Majumder ◽  
M. F. Imam ◽  
M. J. Hossain ◽  
F. Elahi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mean Absolute Error ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
World Market ◽  
Information Criteria ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ◽  
The World

Export plays an important role in promoting economic growth and development. The study is conducted to make an efficient forecasting of tea export from Bangladesh for mitigating the risk of export in the world market. Forecasting has been done by fitting Box-Jenkins type autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. The best ARIMA model is selected by comparing the criteria- coefficient of determination (R2), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), mean absolute error (MAE) and Bayesian information criteria (BIC). Among the Box-Jenkins ARIMA type models for tea export the ARIMA (1,1,3) model is the most appropriate one for forecasting and the forecast values in thousand kilogram for the year 2017-18, 2018-19, 2019-20, 2020-21 and 2021-22, are 1096.48, 812.83, 1122.02, 776.25 and 794.33 with upper limit 1819.70, 1348.96, 1862.09, 1288.25, 1318.26 and lower limit 660.69, 489.78, 676.08, 467.74, 478.63, respectively. So, the result of this model may be helpful for the policymaker to make an export development plan for the country.

scholarly journals A Comparison of World and Domestic Price Volatilities of Oilseeds: The Ethiopian Case

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (2(J)) ◽  
pp. 145-161
Author(s):  
Zerihun G. Kelbore
Keyword(s):  
Poverty Reduction ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Market Price ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
World Market ◽  
Domestic Market ◽  
Series Data ◽  
The World ◽  
Price Risks ◽  
The Government

This study investigates and compares oilseeds price volatilities in the world market and the Ethiopian market. It uses a monthly time series data on oilseeds from February 1999 to December 2012; and analyses price volatilities using unconditional method (standard deviation) and conditional method (GARCH). The results indicate that oilseeds prices are more volatile, but not persistent, in the domestic market than the world market. The magnitude of the influence of the news about past volatility (innovations) is higher in the domestic market for Rapeseed and in the World market for Linseed. However, in both markets there is a problem of volatility clustering. The study also identified that due to the financial crisis the world market price volatilities surpassed and/or paralleled the higher domestic oilseeds price volatilities. The higher domestic oilseeds price volatility may imply that the price risks are high in the domestic oilseeds market. As extreme price volatility influences farmers` production decision, they may opt to other less risky, low-value and less profitable crop varieties. The implications of such retreat is that it may keep the farmers in the traditional farming and impede their transformation to the high value crops, and results in lower income hindering the poverty reduction efforts of the government. This is more important to consider today than was before, because measures undertaken to reduce poverty must bring sustainable change in the lives of the rural poor. For this reason, agricultural policies that enable farmers cope with price risks and enhance their productivity are crucial.

scholarly journals DAYA SAING EKSPOR PALA INDONESIA DI PASAR INTERNASIONAL

2019 ◽  
Vol 33 (2) ◽  
pp. 179-188
Author(s):  
Asrol Asrol ◽  
Heriyanto Heriyanto
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
International Market ◽  
World Market ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Maturity Stage ◽  
Composition Effects ◽  
Average Value ◽  
The World ◽  
Constant Market Share ◽  
Secondary Time

Indonesia is one of the largest producing and exporting countries for nutmeg commodities in the world market. Indonesia as a nutmeg exporting country is a country that imports nutmeg products. Nutmeg is one of Indonesia's leading spice export commodities on the world market. Based on the description in general, this study aims to analyze the competitiveness of Indonesian nutmeg in the world market. Specifically, this study aims to analyze the export position of nutmeg and the competitiveness of Indonesian nutmeg in the international market. The power used in this study is secondary time series data from 2007-2016. To answer the research objectives, it was analyzed using the Trade Specialization Index (ISP), Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) and Constant Market Share (CMS). Based on the results of the study indicate that for the position of Indonesian nutmeg exports on the world market, the average value of Indonesian ISPs on the world market from 2007-2016 was 0.988. This value indicates that the position or stage of Indonesian nutmeg export is at the maturity stage with an indicator value (0.81-1.00). Furthermore, the competitiveness of the results of the average Indonesian nutmeg RCA value on the international market which is calculated from 2007-2016 reached 19,554 because the value of Indonesian nutmeg RCA is greater than one, so Indonesia has a strong competitiveness in the export of nutmeg in the world and tends to be a country exporter rather than importer. For the CMS value of Indonesian nutmegs in the last five years period is negative on the standard growth, composition effects, and market distribution effects but the positive value on the effect of competitiveness.

scholarly journals Predicting the Pandemic COVID-19 Using ARIMA Model

2020 ◽  
Vol 36 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nguyen Quoc Duong ◽  
Le Phuong Thao ◽  
Dinh Thi Nhu Quynh ◽  
Le Thanh Binh ◽  
Cao Thi Ai Loan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Moving Average ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Information Criterion ◽  
World Health ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
The World ◽  
Validation Set ◽  
Short Term Forecasting ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Global Threat

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been recognized as a global threat, and several studies are being conducted using various mathematical models to predict the probable evolution of this epidemic. The main objective of this study is to apply AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model with the objective of monitoring and short-term forecasting the total confirmed new cases per day all over the world. The data are extracted from daily report of World Health Organization from 21st January 2020 to 16th March 2020. Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) and Ljung-Box test were used to evaluate the constructed models. To assess the validity of the proposed model, the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) between the observed and fitted of COVID-19 total confirmed new cases was calculated. Finally, we applied “forecast” package in R software and the fitted ARIMA model to predict the infections of COVID-19. We found that the ARIMA (1, 2, 1) model was able to describe and predict the epidemiological trend of the disease of COVID-19. The MAPE and RMSE for the training set and validation set respectively, which we found was reasonable for use in the forecast. Furthermore, the model also provided forecast total confirmed new cases for the following days. ARIMA model applied to COVID-19 confirmed cases data are an important tool for COVID-19 surveillance all over the world. This study shows that accurate forecasting of the COVID-19 trend is possible using an ARIMA model. Unless strict infection management and control are taken, our findings indicate the potential of COVID-19 to cause greater outbreak all over the world.

scholarly journals FORECASTING MODEL OF AGRICULTURE COMMODITY OF VALUE EXPORT OF COFFEE; APPLICATION OF ARIMA MODEL

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 257
Author(s):  
RR Erlina ◽  
Rialdi Azhar
Keyword(s):  
Arima Model ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
P Value ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
The World ◽  
Q Model ◽  
Mean And Variance

Indonesia is currently one of the largest coffee producers in the world, and involved in exporting coffee countries. The financial series data such export value of coffee is highly volatile in both mean and variance. Thereby, the model of ARIMA with order p,d,q is one way to deal with this error. The aim of this study is to determine the best-fitted ARIMA(p,d,q) model to forecast the monthly series of export of coffee from January 2005 to April 2020. The findings suggest that ARIMA(1,3,1) is the best-selected model due to its very significant p-value (less than 0.0001), which showed that the model is applicable for forecasting.  The model is then used to establish the prediction of ExCof monthly data for the next 12 months.

scholarly journals MODEL PENAWARAN DAN PERMINTAAN MINYAK KELAPA SAWIT INDONESIA DI PASAR INTERNASIONAL

2020 ◽  
Vol 35 (3) ◽  
pp. 119-128
Author(s):  
Tia Sofiani Napitupulu ◽  
Djaimi B Akce ◽  
Almasdi Syahza ◽  
Brilliant Asmit ◽  
Syaiful Hadi
Keyword(s):  
Palm Oil ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Coconut Oil ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
World Market ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Series Data ◽  
The World

ABSTRACT   Indonesia is the leading producer of palm oil in the world. In 2016 Indonesia and Malaysia produced 81% of the world's palm oil. This study aims to analyze the response of the supply and demand for Indonesian palm oil in the world market. This study used time-series data from 1980-2016. The model built is an econometric model, simultaneous equations. To answer the research objectives, the data were analyzed using the Two Stages Least Square (2SLS) method. The main finding of this study is that in the short term, there are no responsive variables. In the long term, the variable that is responsive to the supply of Indonesian palm oil is the lag area of Indonesian palm oil. In the Malaysian palm oil supply equation, the response variable is the lag area of Malaysian palm oil. In terms of domestic demand for Indonesian palm oil, there are no responsive variables both in the short and long term. In the equation of demand for Malaysian palm oil, the responsive variables are the price of Malaysian palm oil and the price of Malaysian coconut oil. In the international demand for palm oil, the responsive variables are the increase in world palm oil prices, world palm oil prices, 2-year lag in world palm oil prices, and GDP per capita Pakistan. In terms of price, the responsive variable affecting the price of Indonesian palm oil is the world price of palm oil.

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