scholarly journals Hierarchical Forecasting of the Zimbabwe International Tourist Arrivals

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 137-156
Author(s):  
Tendai Makoni ◽  
Delson Chikobvu ◽  
Caston Sigauke
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Combination ◽  
Top Down ◽  
General Increase ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Bottom Up ◽  
International Tourist ◽  
The Government ◽  
Resource Mobilisation ◽  
Insight Into ◽  
Modelling And Forecasting

The objectives of the paper is to: (1) adopt the hierarchical forecasting methods in modelling and forecasting international tourist arrivals in Zimbabwe; and (2) coming up with Zimbabwe international tourist arrivals Prediction Intervals (PIs) in Quantile Regression Averaging (QRA) to hierarchical tourism forecasts. Zimbabwe’s monthly international tourist arrivals data from January 2002 to December 2018 was used. The dataset used was before the COVID-19 period and were disaggregated according to the purpose of the visit (POV). Three hierarchical forecasting approaches, namely top-down, bottom-up and optimal combination approaches were applied to the data. The results showed the superiority of the bottom-up approach over both the top-down and optimal combination approaches. Forecasts indicate a general increase in aggregate series. The combined methods provide a new insight into modelling tourist arrivals. The approach is useful to the government, tourism stakeholders, and investors among others, for decision-making, resource mobilisation and allocation. The Zimbabwe Tourism Authority (ZTA) could adopt the forecasting techniques to produce informative and precise tourism forecasts. The data set used is before the COVID-19 pandemic and the models indicate what could happen outside the pandemic. During the pandemic the country was under lockdown with no tourist arrivals to report on. The models are useful for planning purposes beyond the COVID-19 pandemic.

scholarly journals THE REVITALIZATION MODEL OF WAN ABDURRAHMAN FOREST PARK AS A COMMUNAL FORESTRY CONSERVATION AREA

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (6) ◽  
pp. 1147-1153
Author(s):  
Erlina Bachri ◽  
Bambang Hartono ◽  
Zainab Ompu Jainah ◽  
Anggalana ◽  
Melisa Safitri
Keyword(s):  
Swot Analysis ◽  
Planning Model ◽  
Social Planning ◽  
Top Down ◽  
Conservation Programs ◽  
Conservation Area ◽  
Bottom Up ◽  
Forest Park ◽  
The Government ◽  
Member Of Parliament

Purpose of study: This study aimed to develop a model of social planning and legal perspectives on forest park revitalization program. Which in this study forest park that will be examined is Abdurahman Wan forest park in Lampung province, Indonesia as communal-based nature conservation programs are guided by the principles of participation, utilization, harmonization, and sustainability? Methodology: This study is a qualitative study using juridical and sociological perspectives by evaluating and comparing the Top-down and Bottom-up plans that have been done before. The SWOT analysis has been done for analyzing the data. Result: The results of the study show that the "Top-down Planning" that has been done so far is not sufficient. This is because the legislature is not only limited to a basic concept but must also play a role in developing all strategic arrangements. Therefore, in this case, the government is not merely a member of parliament but oversees the course of the program. Also, the community must have broad access to fight for its communal values. In short, the study found that the "Bottom-Up Planning" model was more suitable for implementation because through this approach the community could participate and exchange ideas together in all policies. Implications: This research is very useful for stakeholders because it can provide academic illustrations in the form of policy analysis and is able to force public participation and ensure that all policies are shared values ​​and collaborative in nature that provide so many assets related to the form of public policy in implementing activities in the park communal forest. Applications of this study: This research can be used for the universities, managers, and policymakers. Novelty/Originality of this study: In this research, the model of forest park conservation programs using communal-based based on participation, utilization, harmonization, and sustainability.

scholarly journals Efektivitas E-Musrenbang di Kota Surabaya dalam Sistem Perencanaan Pembangunan Berparadigma Masyarakat

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 19
Author(s):  
Novy Setia Yunas
Keyword(s):  
Regional Development ◽  
Development Planning ◽  
Planning System ◽  
Top Down ◽  
Important Lesson ◽  
Social Contacts ◽  
Bottom Up ◽  
The Subject ◽  
The Government

The success of the development in a region will be greatly determined by the quality of development planning. As planning became the sign posts are clear about what the needs of the citizens with has clear and measurable targets. Development Planning System emphasizes a combination of approaches between top-down and bottom up, which emphasizes the ways aspirational and participatory, so it is realized through the process of development planning or deliberation Musrenbang neighborhood start at various levels up to nationwide. This paper is the result of research that are descriptive studies library which describes the process of implementing E-Musrenbang in Surabaya with a variety of problems. E-Musrenbang successfully applied in Surabaya at least be innovations in development  planning system in which during this society wants a forum or social contacts among citizens with the Government in regional development planning. The application of the system of E-Musrenbang in Surabaya became an important lesson for the construction paradigm of society, where society is not only made of the objects but rather the subject of development. Keberhasilan pembangunan di suatu wilayah ditentukan oleh kualitas perencanaan pembangunannya. Sebagaimana perencanaan menjadi penunjuk arah yang jelas tentang apa yang menjadi kebutuhan warga dengan target yang jelas dan terukur. Sistem perencanaan menekankan kombinasi pendekatan antara top-down dan bottom-up, yang lebih menekankan cara-cara aspiratif dan partisipatif, sehingga hal tersebut diwujudkan melalui proses musyawarah perencanaan pembangunan atau Musrenbang di berbagai tingkatan mulai kelurahan hingga Nasional. Tulisan ini merupakan hasil penelitian yang bersifat deskriptif dengan studi kepustakaan yang menjelaskan proses pelaksanaan E- Musrenbang di Surabaya dengan berbagai permasalahannya. Sistem E- Musrenbang yang berhasil diterapkan di Kota Surabaya setidaknya menjadi inovasi dalam sistem perencanaan pembangunan dimana selama ini masyarakat menginginkan sebuah forum atau kontak sosial antara warga dengan pemerintah dalam perencanaan pembangunan daerah. Penerapan sistem E- Musrenbang di Kota Surabaya menjadi sebuah pelajaran penting bagi perencanaan pembangunan berparadigma masyarakat, dimana masyarakat tidak hanya dijadikan objek melainkan subjek pembangunan. 

scholarly journals PARSING TWITTER MENGGUNAKAN METODE LEFT-CORNER PARSING DENGAN MEMANFAATKAN POS TAGGER

Repositor ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (7) ◽  
pp. 897
Author(s):  
Dyah Anitia ◽  
Yuda Munarko ◽  
Yufis Azhar
Keyword(s):  
Noun Phrase ◽  
Word Class ◽  
Sentence Structure ◽  
Top Down ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Bottom Up ◽  
Part Of Speech ◽  
Left Corner ◽  
Pos Tagger ◽  
Bahasa Indonesia

AbstrakPada penelitian ini dilakukan investigasi parser dengan pendekatan left-corner untuk data tweet bahasa Indonesia. Total koleksi tweet sebanyak 850 tweet yang dibagi menjadi tiga kumpulan data, yakni data train POS Tagger, data train dan data uji. Left-corner menggabungkan dua metode yakni top-down dan bottom-up. Dimana top-down digunakan pada proses pengenalan kelas kata dan bottom-up digunakan pada proses pengenalan struktur kalimat. Adapun jenis tag yang digunakan dalam proses top-down berjumlah 23 tagset dan frasa  yang digunakan untuk menentukan struktur kalimat frasa yakni frasa nomina, frasa verbal, frasa adjektiva, frasa adverbia dan frasa preposisional. Hasilnya adalah untuk pendekatan left corner mencapai nilai precision 88,29%, nilai recall 68,3% dan F1 measure 77,02%. Nilai yang diperoleh dengan pendekatan left-corner lebih besar dibandingkan nilai dengan pendekatan bottom-up. Hasil dari nilai yang diperoleh dengan bottom up mencapai nilai precision 68,79%, nilai recall 47,12% dan F1 measure 55,9%. Hal ini disebabkan penggunaan kelas kata pada proses top-down berpengaruh pada sturuktur kalimat pada proses bottom up.AbstractIn this research, we investigated parser with left-corner parser approach for data tweet in Indonesian language. The data used was consisted of 850 tweets which divided for into three data set, that is data train for POS Tagger, data train for parser and data test. The left-corner combines two methods, top-down and bottom-up methods. Top-down  used for processes a sequence of words, and attaches a part of speech tag to each and bottom-up used for processes a sentence structure. We used 41 tags and the pharse used to define the sentence structure is noun phrase, verbal phrase, adjective pharse, adverd phrase and prepositional pharse. The result was that precision 88,29%,  recall 68,3% and F1 measure 77,02% of left-corner approach. The value obtained by the left-corner approach is greater than the value with the bottom-up approach. The result was that precision 68,29%,  recall 47,12% and F1 measure 55,9% of bottom-up approach. This is because the use of word class in top-down process affect the sentence structure in the bottom up process. that is because the use of word class in top-down process affect the sentence structure in the bottom up process.

Uneven implementation of human trafficking policies

2020 ◽  
pp. 121-148
Author(s):  
Laura A. Dean
Keyword(s):  
Policy Implementation ◽  
Interest Groups ◽  
Human Trafficking ◽  
Top Down ◽  
Internal Factors ◽  
Bottom Up ◽  
Country Size ◽  
Implementation Processes ◽  
Grass Roots ◽  
The Government

This chapter discusses how anti-trafficking institutions and networks combine to diffuse policy implementation from the top-down and bottom-up. It shows that when no one in the government is held accountable for the implementation of the policies uneven policy implementation occurs as some countries (i.e. Latvia) are more effective at implementing policy than others (i.e. Ukraine and Russia). The results demonstrate that top-down implementation (from the national government) was apparent in all three countries as the government entities attempted to guide implementation. Only Latvia was able to balance this top-down approach with a grass roots bottom-up implementation processes facilitated by their working group and the strength of the interest groups in that country. This could also demonstrate that country size and/or decentralization reforms from the federal level help facilitate human trafficking policy implementation. The influence of internal factors including law enforcement measures to combat trafficking and interest group strength are the most significant facilitators of policy implementation. While state capacity and commitment, bureaucracy, and corruption were the biggest impediments to successful policy implementation. Interest groups also provide feedback loops, policy evaluations, and guide implementation when the government fell short.

Regency grouping in East Java based on Variable Type of Agriculture uses Hybrid Hierarchical Clustering Via Mutual Cluster Method

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 51-58
Author(s):  
Sulthan Fikri Mu'afa ◽  
Nurissaidah Ulinnuha
Keyword(s):  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Hierarchical Clustering ◽  
Analysis Of Variance ◽  
Euclidean Distance ◽  
Cluster Method ◽  
Top Down ◽  
Bottom Up ◽  
Distance Analysis ◽  
Shortest Distance ◽  
The Government

AbstractEast Java Province is one of the provinces that has the largest agricultural resources in Indonesia. The Government of East Java needs to produce superior commodities in each region. This study aims to group districts in East Java Province based on variable types of agriculture with the hybrid hierarchical clustering via mutual cluster method that combines the merging of bottom-up clustering advantages and top-down clustering advantages. Mutual cluster is a grouping with the largest distance between small groups of the shortest distance for each point outside the group. In this research, the calculation uses Euclidean distance. The data used in this study are from the East Java Central Statistics Agency (BPS) in 2017. The division calculation is obtained by finding the minimum  (standard deviation of intra cluster) value and the maximum  (standard deviation of inter clusters) value and using the analysis of variance calculation. The grouping results obtained were nine groups with  value of 725.934,  value of 1.475.978 and  value of 7,908.Keywords: agriculture; Hybrid Hierarchical Clustering; mutual cluster; Euclidean distance; analysis of variance. AbstrakProvinsi Jawa Timur merupakan salah satu provinsi yang memiliki sumber daya pertanian terbesar di Indonesia. Pemerintah Jawa Timur perlu mengembangkan komoditi unggulan di tiap daerah di Jawa Timur. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengelompokkan kabupaten di Provinsi Jawa Timur berdasarkan variabel jenis pertanian dengan metode hybrid hierarchical clustering via mutual cluster yaitu menggabungkan kelebihan bottom-up clustering dan kelebihan top-down clustering. Mutual cluster yakni pengelompokkan dengan jarak terbesar antara bagian dalam kelompok yang kecil dari jarak yang terpendek kepada tiap titik di luar kelompok. Dalam penelitian ini, perhitungan jarak menggunakan jarak Euclidean. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini dari Badan Pusat Statistik Jawa Timur tahun 2017. Perhitungan pembagian didapat dengan mencari nilai (simpangan baku dalam klaster) yang minimal dan nilai  (simpangan baku antar klaster) yang maksimal, serta digunakan perhitungan analyze of varians. Hasil pengelompokkan yang diperoleh didapatkan sebanyak sembilan kelompok dengan nilai  sebesar 725.934, nilai sebesar 1.475.978 dan nilai  sebesar 7,908.Kata Kunci: pertanian; Hybrid Hierarchical Clustering; mutual cluster; jarak Euclid; analisis variansi.

Top-Down vs Bottom-Up Approaches to User Segmentation: The Best of Both Worlds

2017 ◽  
Vol 61 (1) ◽  
pp. 515-519
Author(s):  
Stefania Mereu ◽  
Matt Newman ◽  
Michelle Peterson ◽  
Eric Taylor ◽  
Jessica White-Sustaita ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cluster Analysis ◽  
Data Gathering ◽  
Design Teams ◽  
Top Down ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Bottom Up ◽  
User Behaviors ◽  
Statistical Cluster ◽  
Rich Data ◽  
Agile Software

Within the fast-paced world of Lean and Agile software development, researchers are always on the lookout for methods that allow for rapid data gathering and analysis, while still yielding robust design recommendations. This paper considers the use cases for “top-down” hypothesis testing and “bottom-up” statistical cluster analysis, within survey research on user behaviors and needs. Comparing the application of each method on the same data set shows that statistical cluster analysis can create rich data-driven personas that inform user needs and preferences and provide design teams with insightful recommendations in a short amount of time. This method also increases the potential for gaining unexpected information from quantitative data—an achievement typically viewed as within the purview of qualitative research alone. Using both approaches to the same dataset allowed us to both answer specific questions for the design team, and learn new insights from the bottom up.

scholarly journals Kebijakan Pembangunan Dalam Konsep Kepemimpinan Partisipatif

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 91-104
Author(s):  
Wimmy Haliim
Keyword(s):  
Development Policy ◽  
Policy Making ◽  
Top Down ◽  
Bottom Up ◽  
The Public ◽  
Participatory Leadership ◽  
Development Policies ◽  
Policy Making Process ◽  
Writing Models ◽  
The Government

People's needs are often considered trivial by bureaucrats who sit in the government of a country. They tend to carry out and make programs or policies with top-down development, but the compatibility between what is needed by the people and what is done by the government is often different. Therefore, a more bottom-up approach must be present in the policy making process that is within the body of government. One of the goals of writing this article is the desire to strengthen the role of the community in the policy-making process that is considered important. The writing of this article uses the use of normative writing models. So that it uses a conceptual approach to explain to readers the importance of the concept of participatory leadership in development policy. Participatory leadership is leadership that bases its policy makers on a mature process of deliberation (deliberation process) by involving the public, so that development policies that are born can answer the needs and improve the socio-economic capabilities of the public. The concept of participatory leadership can be applied to every public official in the central to regional government environment, the government's goal to carry out comprehensive bureaucratic reform can be achieved. Also, the community will be far more independent and strong. The independence and strength of the community, in addition to being used to participate in the planning process, are also very much needed as an external party in monitoring and evaluating development policies. Keywords: Participation, Development Policy, Participatory Leadership Abstrak Kebutuhan rakyat seringkali dianggap hal yang sepele oleh birokrat yang duduk didalam pemerintahan sebuah negara. Mereka memiliki kecenderungan melakukan dan membuat program atau kebijakan dengan pembangunan yang bersifat top-down, namun kesesuaian antara apa yang dibutuhkan rakyat dengan yang dikerjakan oleh pemerintah sering kali berbeda. Maka dari itu, pendekatan yang lebih bottom-up harus hadir didalam proses pembuatan kebijakan yang ada didalam tubuh pemerintah. Salah satu tujuan penulisan artikel ini adalah keinginan untuk memperkuat peran masyarakat dalam proses pembuat kebijakan yang dinilai penting. Penulisan artikel ini menggunakan penggunaan model penulisan normatif. Sehingga didalamnya menggunakan pendekatan konseptual untuk menjelaskan kepada pembaca pentingan konsep kepemimpinan partisipatif dalam kebijakan pembangunan. Kepemimpinan partisipatif adalah kepemimpinan yang mendasarkan pembuat kebijakannya pada proses pertimbangan yang matang (proses deliberasi) dengan mengikutsertakan publik, sehingga kebijakan pembangunan yang lahir bisa menjawab kebutuhan dan meningkatkan kemampuan sosial-ekonomi publik. Konsep kepemimpinan partisipatif ini bisa diaplikasikan pada setiap pejabat publik yang ada dilingkungan pemerintahan pusat hingga daerah, tujuan pemerintah untuk melakukan reformasi birokrasi secara menyeluruh bisa tercapai. Selain itu, masyarakat akan jauh lebih mandiri dan kuat. Kemandirian dan kekuatan masyarakat, selain bisa digunakan untuk ikutserta dalam proses perencanaan, juga sangat dibutuhkan sebagai pihak eksternal dalam pengawasan hingga evaluasi kebijakan pembangunan. Kata Kunci: Partisipasi, Kebijakan Pembangunan, Kepemimpinan Partisipatif.

scholarly journals Inverse modelling of European CH<sub>4</sub> emissions during 2006–2012 using different inverse models and reassessed atmospheric observations

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Bergamaschi ◽  
Ute Karstens ◽  
Alistair J. Manning ◽  
Marielle Saunois ◽  
Aki Tsuruta ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
A Priori ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Inverse Modelling ◽  
Top Down ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Bottom Up ◽  
Ch4 Emissions ◽  
In Situ Data ◽  
Inverse Models ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. We present inverse modelling (top-down) estimates of European methane (CH4) emissions for 2006–2012 based on a new quality-controlled and harmonized in-situ data set from 18 European atmospheric monitoring stations. We applied an ensemble of seven inverse models and performed four inversion experiments, investigating the impact of different sets of stations and the use of a priori information on emissions. The inverse models infer total CH4 emissions of 26.7 (20.2–29.7) Tg CH4 yr−1 (mean, 10th and 90th percentiles from all inversions) for the EU-28 for 2006–2012 from the four inversion experiments. For comparison, total anthropogenic CH4 emissions reported to UNFCCC (bottom-up, based on statistical data and emissions factors) amount to only 21.3 Tg CH4 yr−1 (2006) to 18.8 Tg CH4 yr−1 (2012). A potential explanation for the higher range of top-down estimates compared to bottom-up inventories could be the contribution from natural sources, such as peatlands, wetlands, and wet soils. Based on seven different wetland inventories from the Wetland and Wetland CH4 Inter-comparison of Models Project (WETCHIMP) total wetland emissions of 4.3 (2.3–8.2) CH4 yr−1 from EU-28 are estimated. The hypothesis of significant natural emissions is supported by the finding that several inverse models yield significant seasonal cycles of derived CH4 emissions with maxima in summer, while anthropogenic CH4 emissions are assumed to have much lower seasonal variability. Furthermore, we investigate potential biases in the inverse models by comparison with regular aircraft profiles at four European sites and with vertical profiles obtained during the Infrastructure for Measurement of the European Carbon Cycle (IMECC) aircraft campaign. We present a novel approach to estimate the biases in the derived emissions, based on the comparison of simulated and measured enhancements of CH4 compared to the background, integrated over the entire boundary layer and over the lower troposphere. This analysis identifies regional biases for several models at the aircraft profile sites in France, Hungary and Poland.

scholarly journals The Anxiety of Educational Reform and Innovation: Bridging of Top-Down and Bottom-Up Strategies within Practice Educational Reform of Curriculum in Indonesia

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 87-96 ◽  
Author(s):  
Beni Setiawan
Keyword(s):  
Educational Reform ◽  
National Curriculum ◽  
Field Education ◽  
Top Down ◽  
Bottom Up ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
School Based ◽  
Points Of View ◽  
Reform And Innovation ◽  
The Government

Reform and innovation are important issues in the educational field. Education is dynamic and changing depends on globalization demands. To counterbalance for these changes, there are two strategies to make education change. Top down and bottom up strategies. Top down and bottom up have advantages and disadvantages to the reform and innovation of educational. For instance, the advantage of top-down is the government have the power to make policy, do research about national curriculum and implement that policy in the education area, especially at school but for making policy, regulation, research and implement government have spent more money without significant result. In another hand, the benefit of bottom-up is the innovation of education easily to find and grow up because they have involved directly in the change in school, also understand what they need in education because the teachers and the principle have strong connection with the students and indirectly evaluate the national curriculum which is appropriate or not. Nevertheless, school community as the representative of bottom-up did not have the power to bring that innovation in the top level because there is no connecting purpose between government and school. In addition, the big effect is the top-down, bottom-up has the different points of view to look into education. Furthermore, to solve that problem, there are some approaches could be bond to both strategies such as the collaborative, negotiate, conceptual, and strategic clarification, school-based management and strong site councils. Based on several previous researchers that approach is the best option for bridging the educational purpose between top down and bottom up.

scholarly journals TYPOLOGY OF RESILIENCE STRATEGIES FOR NATURAL DISASTERS IN YOGYAKARTA CITY

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 152
Author(s):  
Guruh Krisnantara ◽  
M. Sani Roychansyah
Keyword(s):  
Natural Disasters ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Regional Government ◽  
Infrastructure Development ◽  
Snowball Sampling ◽  
Top Down ◽  
Bottom Up ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Village

Urban areas in disaster prone require increased capacity in order to reduce the risk level. This study identifies resilience strategies in towards natural disasters in the village unit to obtain detailed data. This study uses field observations to find information about resilience strategies that have been carried out by the government and by the public in general and with snowball sampling techniques in each unit of analysis. Some strategies obtained were then made a typology of strategies found in several villages in the city of Yogyakarta. The results of this study are there are two types of strategies for increasing resilience in Yogyakarta, bottom-up strategy and top-down strategy. Bottom-up strategy is a strategy that was indeed initiated and carried out by the village although in the end it still cannot be separated from the role of main stakeholders, among others, is conducting disaster simulations, training in the use of emergency equipment, disaster socialization, planning, and infrastructure preparation. Top-down strategy is a strategy or policy carried out by the regional government in order to coordinate the level of resilience in the entire region of Yogyakarta, including the addition of the Kampung Tangguh Bencana (KTB), village expansion, organizing volunteers, and infrastructure development.

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