DETERMINANT OF INDONESIAN MANUFACTURING OUTPUT

The role of manufacture in Indonesia influence the economic growth. This research aims to observe and analyze influencing factors of manufacturing sector output in Indonesia. The research method used Error Correction Model (ECM) at period 2005 in 1stquartal – 2017 in 4thquartal. This research used secondary data from Statistik Ekonomi dan Keuangan Indonesia (SEKI) and Federal Reserves. The results of the study show that in long term estimation lend interest rate and inflation have negative and significant impact, whereas FDI has positive and significant impact towards manufacturing sector output. Otherwise, in short term estimation show that lend interest rate has negative and significant impact, while inflation and FDI have no significant impact towards manufacturing sector output.

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PENGARUH E-COMMERCE, INFLASI, DAN NILAI TUKAR TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI INDONESIA

Jurnal Kajian Ekonomi dan Pembangunan ◽

10.24036/jkep.v2i1.8902 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 2 (1) ◽

pp. 151

Author(s):

Widya Ayu Lastri ◽

Ali Anis

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Exchange Rate ◽

Error Correction ◽

Secondary Data ◽

Term Effect ◽

Short Term ◽

Correction Model ◽

Descriptive Research ◽

Long Term Effect

This Study aims to examine and to analisys the influencing factors on economic growth in Indonesia, which the variables are e-commerce, inflation and exchange rate. This study is associative descriptive research, which using secondary data from 2011Q1-2018Q4 that obtained from relevant institutions and agencies. Analisys using Error Correction Model (ECM) method. This study using Ordinary Lest Square (OLS) method to know the long term effect and ECM to know the short term effect at one blow.The study found that in the long term, e-commerce and exchange rate have a significant effect and inflation have not a significant effect. And in the short term, e-commerce have a positive and significant effect, while inflation and exchange rate have a negative and not significant.

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ANALISIS FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI UTANG LUAR NEGERI DI INDONESIA

Jurnal Ecogen ◽

10.24036/jmpe.v1i3.4989 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 1 (3) ◽

pp. 482

Author(s):

Defrizal Saputra ◽

Hasdi Aimon ◽

Melti Roza Adry

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Interest Rates ◽

Error Correction ◽

Foreign Debt ◽

Secondary Data ◽

Error Correction Model ◽

Short Term ◽

Correction Model ◽

Descriptive Research ◽

Long Run

This study aims to determine and analyze the factors that influence foreign debt in Indonesia with variables that effect economic growth, inflation, and foreign interest rates. This type of research is associative descriptive research, where the data used is secondary data from 1970 to 2017 obtained from institutions and related institutions, which are analyzed using the Error Correction Model (ECM) method. This study initially used the Ordinary Lest Square (OLS) method to see long-term, and used ECM because it wanted to see short-term at the same time. The findings of this study indicate that economic growth and inflation have a significant effect in the long run, but the interest rates have no significant effect, and in the short term all have a significant effect on foreign debt in Indonesia. Keywords: foreign debt, economic growth, inflation, interest rates and error correction model (ECM)

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Credit Risk Determinants in Indonesia

EFFICIENT Indonesian Journal of Development Economics ◽

10.15294/efficient.v1i2.30153 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 1 (2) ◽

pp. 106-115

Author(s):

Amin Yusuf Efendi

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Interest Rate ◽

Credit Risk ◽

Error Correction ◽

Error Correction Model ◽

Series Data ◽

Short Term ◽

Correction Model ◽

Spurious Regression

Credit is the main business of the banking industry, therefore, in running the business, the bank is always overshadowed by the credit risk the which can be determined by the ratio of non-performing loans (NPL). The development of technology, finance digital brings the outside could impact on the financial industry both positive and negative. The purpose of this study was to analyze the interest rate, inflation, exchange rates, gross domestic product (GDP), a dummy finance digitalization policies in the long term and the short term of the non-performing loan (NPL) of conventional commercial banks in Indonesia The analytical method used in this research is-EG Error Correction Model (ECM), The Data used in this research is secondary quarterly time series data from the 2008 quarter 1-2017 4. The time series of data are not stationar Often that can cause spurious regression results, the exact models used is-EG Error Correction Model (ECM), This models may explain the behavior of short-term and long-term. The results Showed in the short-term variable interest rates significanly to non-performing loans, while in the long-term variable interest rate, exchange rate, and GDP Significantly, non-performing loans. Kredit merupakan bisnis utama dari industri perbankan, oleh karena itu dalam menjalankan bisnisnya, bank selalu dibayangi oleh risiko kredit yang dapat diketahui melalui rasio non-performing loans (NPL). Perkembangan teknologi, menghadirkan digital finance yang membawa dampak luar bisa terhadap industri keuangan baik positif dan negatif. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk menganalisis suku bunga, inflasi, kurs, produk domestik bruto (PDB) dummy kebijakan digitalisasi keuangan dalam jangka panjang dan jangka pendek terhadap non-performing loan (NPL) bank umum konvensional di Indonesia Metode analisis yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah Error Correction Model-EG (ECM). Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data sekunder runtut waktu kuartalan dari 2008 kuartal 1 – 2017 kuartal 4. Data runtun waktu sering tidak stationar sehingga bisa menyebabkan hasil regresi palsu (spurious regression), Model yang tepat digunakan adalah Error Correction Model-EG (ECM), model ini dapat menjelaskan perilaku jangka pendek dan jangka panjang. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan dalam jangka pendek variabel suku bunga berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap non performing loan, sedangkan dalam jangka panjang variabel suku bunga, kurs, dan PDB berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap non perfoming loan.

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THE EFFECT OF MUDHARABAH, MUSHARAKA, AND IJARAH FINANCING TO RETURN ON EQUITY IN BANK BRI SHARIA PERIOD 2016-2020

Niqosiya: Journal of Economics and Business Research ◽

10.21154/niqosiya.v1i2.413 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 1 (2) ◽

pp. 268-285

Author(s):

Filia Fransiska ◽

Asmak Ab Rahman ◽

Shinta Maharani

Keyword(s):

Error Correction ◽

Quantitative Methods ◽

Secondary Data ◽

Financial Statements ◽

Significant Positive Effect ◽

Short Term ◽

Correction Model ◽

Return On Equity ◽

Positive Effect

Aim of this research is the phenomenon on the 2016-2020 financial statements of BRI Syariah Bank. It shows that the increase in income is not always followed by an increase in Return On Equity (ROE) at BRI Syariah Bank, vice versa. The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of mudharabah, musyaraka, and ijarah both in the long and short term on Return On Equity (ROE). The method of this study used quantitative methods, and used secondary data. The population and sample used in this study are BRI Syariah Bank monthly reports, including mudharabah, musyaraka, and ijarah in the 2016-2020 period. The analytical method used is the Error Correction Model (ECM) with the Eviews program. The results in this study indicate that in the short term and long term, mudharabah has a significant positive effect on return on equity (ROE), the short term results show that the t-statistic (t-count) is greater than the t-critical (2.833045>2.002247). . Meanwhile, the results of the long-term test show that the t-statistic (t-count) is more significant than t-critical (2.467613>2.002247). Musharaka in the short term and long term affects the return on equity (ROE). The short-term results show that the t-statistic (t-count) is greater than the t-critical (2.909601>2.002247). Meanwhile, the results of the long-term test show that the t-statistic (t-count) is more significant than t-critical (2.733504>2.002247). While ijarah in the short term and the long term does not affect the return on equity (ROE), the short term results show that the t-statistic (t-count) is greater than the t-critical (1.330407<2.002247). Meanwhile, the results of the long-term test show that the t-statistic (t-count) is more significant than t-critical (1.256261<2.002247). Simultaneously, in the short term, mudharabah, Musharaka, and ijarah have a significant and positive effect on the return on equity (ROE) of 23.8249%. While in the long term, it has a significant effect of 28.3164%.

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Pengaruh Nilai Tukar dan Suku Bunga Acuan Terhadap Neraca Transaksi Berjalan di Indonesia Periode 2005:1 – 2015: 1 (Pendekatan Error Correction Model)

MODUS ◽

10.24002/modus.v28i1.668 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 28 (1) ◽

pp. 105

Author(s):

Toni Saputra ◽

R Maryatmo

Keyword(s):

Exchange Rate ◽

Interest Rate ◽

Current Account ◽

Secondary Data ◽

Analysis Tool ◽

Short Term ◽

Correction Model ◽

The Exchange Rate ◽

The Current Account

AbstrakPenelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui dan menganalisis pengaruh nilai tukar dan suku bunga acuan terhadap neraca transaksi berjalan di Indonesia periode 2005:1- 2015:1. Data yang digunakan merupakan data sekunder. Data sekunder bersumber dari website Bank Indonesia. Alat analisis yang digunakan adalah Errror Correction Model (ECM). Selanjutnya analisis deskriptif digunakan untuk menjelaskan hasil penelitian.Penelitian ini menghasilkan dua hal. Pertama, dalam jangka pendek nilai tukar tidak berpengaruh terhadap neraca transaksi berjalan Indonesia. Dalam jangka panjang nilai tukar memiliki pengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap neraca transaksi berjalan. Kedua, dalam jangka pendek suku bunga acuan tidak berpengaruh terhadap neraca transaksi berjalan Indonesia. Dalam jangka panjang suku bunga acuan memiliki pengaruh negatif terhadap neraca transaksi berjalan. Kata Kunci: neraca transaksi berjalan Indonesia, nilai tukar, suku bunga acuan, Errror Correction Model AbstractThis study aims to determine and analyze the effect of exchange rates and interest rates on current account in Indonesia from 2005: 1 to 2015: 1. The data used is secondary data. Secondary data is sourced from the website of Bank Indonesia. The analysis tool used is Errror Correction Model (ECM). Further descriptive analysis is used to explain the study results.This research resulted in two things. First, in the short term exchange rate has no effect on the current account in Indonesia. In the long term the exchange rate has a positive and significant impact on the current account. Second, in the short-term benchmark interest rate has no effect on the current account in Indonesia. In the long-term benchmark interest rate has a negative effect on the current account. Keywords: current account in Indonesia, the exchange rate, the benchmark interest rate, errror Correction Model

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INTERAKSI ASPEK PERMODALAN, RISIKO PEMBIAYAAN, DAN INDIKATOR MAKROEKONOMI DALAM MEMPENGARUHI PROFITABILITAS BPRS DI INDONESIA PERIODE 2014-2018

Jurnal Benefita ◽

10.22216/jbe.v5i3.5623 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 5 (3) ◽

pp. 401

Author(s):

Feri Irawan

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Time Series ◽

Error Correction ◽

Error Correction Model ◽

Series Data ◽

Short Term ◽

Correction Model ◽

Long Run ◽

Short And Long Term

ABSTRACTThis study aims to analyze the effect of capital aspects (CAR), financing risk (NPF) and macroeconomic variables including economic growth, inflation and the BI Rate on profitability (ROE) in the short and long term. By using time series data for the monthly period from 2013-2018 and the Error-Correction Model (ECM) and cointegration approach, it is found that CAR and NPF do not have a significant effect on ROE in the short and long term. Economic growth, inflation and the BI Rate in the short term do not have a significant effect on ROE, in the long run economic growth, inflation and the BI Rate have a significant effect on ROE. In the short term, economic growth, inflation and the BI Rate disturb the balance of profitability, but in the long run it returns to its equilibrium level. It is necessary to integrate the BPRS policy strategy in managing capital and risk with government policies related to economic growth and inflation. ABSTRACTPenelitian bertujuan menganalisis pengaruh aspek permodalan (CAR), risiko pembiayaan (NPF) dan variabel makroekonomi yang meliputi pertumbuhan ekonomi, inflasi dam BI Rate terhadap profitabilitas (ROE) dalam jangka pendek dan jangka panjang. Dengan menggunakan data time series periode bulanan dari tahun 2013-2018 dan pendekatan Error-Correction Model (ECM) dan kointegrasi, ditemukan bahwa CAR dan NPF tidak berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap ROE dalam jangka pendek dan jangka panjang. Pertumbuhan ekonomi, inflasi dan BI Rate dalam jangka pendek tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap ROE, dalam jangka panjang pertumbuhan ekonomi, inflasi dan BI Rate berpengaruh signfikan terhadap ROE. Pada jangka pendek, pertumbuhan ekonomi, inflasi dan BI Rate menggangu keseimbangan profitabilitas namun dalam jangka panjang kembali pada tingkat keseimbangannya. Diperlukan pengintegrasi strategi kebijakan BPRS dalam mengelola permodalan dan risiko dengan kebijakan pemerintah terkait dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi dan inflasi.

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PENGARUH EKSPOR HASIL MINYAK DAN IMPOR MINYAK BUMI TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI INDONESIA

JURNAL EKONOMIKA INDONESIA ◽

10.29103/ekonomika.v10i1.4506 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 10 (1) ◽

pp. 23

Author(s):

Fadila Arza ◽

Murtala Murtala

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Secondary Data ◽

Vector Error Correction Model ◽

Short Term ◽

Correction Model ◽

Vector Error Correction ◽

Vector Error ◽

The Relationship ◽

Positive Effect

This study aims to analyze the effect of oil product exports and petroleum imports on the economic growth of Indonesia. This study uses secondary data. The method used to analyze the relationship between endogenous and exogenous variables is a dynamic model with the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach. The results in the long-term and short-term show that Oil Products Exports have a positive effect on the Economic Growth of Indonesia. In the long-term and short-term, petroleum imports negatively influence the economic growth of Indonesia.Keywords:Oil Product Exports, Crude Oil Imports, Economic Growth

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Analisis Pengaruh Jangka Pendek dan Jangka Panjang Nilai Tukar dan Tingkat Imbalan SBIS Terhadap Inflasi di Indonesia Periode Januari 2009-Desember 2015

Jurnal Ekonomi Syariah Teori dan Terapan ◽

10.20473/vol4iss201711pp928-936 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 4 (11) ◽

pp. 928

Author(s):

Tania Megasari ◽

Tika Widiastuti

Keyword(s):

Exchange Rate ◽

Error Correction ◽

Quantitative Research ◽

Secondary Data ◽

Error Correction Model ◽

Return Rate ◽

Short Term ◽

Correction Model ◽

The Exchange Rate

The purpose of this research is to examine the effect of the exchange rate, and the return rate of Bank Indonesia Sharia Certificate (SBIS) on inflation in Indonesia during the period January 2009 to December 2015. The approach used in this research is quantitative research using Error Correction Model (ECM) by Eviews program 8. The data used are secondary data from the official website of Bank Indonesia. The results showed that the Exchange rate and the rate of SBIS have a significant and positive correlation against inflation in the short term and long term during the period January 2009 to December 2015.

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DETERMINAN TINGKAT SUKU BUNGA PINJAMAN DI INDONESIA TAHUN 1983 – 2002

Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan ◽

10.21098/bemp.v7i3.118 ◽

2005 ◽

Vol 7 (3) ◽

Author(s):

Taufik Kurniawan

Keyword(s):

Interest Rate ◽

Error Correction ◽

Money Supply ◽

Error Correction Model ◽

Correction Model ◽

Explanatory Variables ◽

Short And Long Term ◽

Yearly Data

This paper analyzes the role of international interest rate, money supply, inflation, SBI rate (Sertifikat Bank Indonesia) and GDP on the lending rate. We use the Error Correction Model on Indonesian yearly data from 1983 – 2002 and confirm the significant of these explanatory variables as the determinant of short and long term credit lending rates.These findings conforms the necessity for Bank Indonesia as monetary authority to take into account the external factors and support the integration of domestic and foreign financial market.Keyword: Error Correction Model, Interest rate, Financial market, Money Supply, Lending rate.JEL: C22, E44, E51

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Analysis of Soybean Availability in Indonesia

Ilmu Pertanian (Agricultural Science) ◽

10.22146/ipas.13613 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 2 (1) ◽

pp. 042

Author(s):

Grace Natalia ◽

Dwidjono Hadi Darwanto ◽

Slamet Hartono

Keyword(s):

Exchange Rate ◽

Error Correction ◽

World Bank ◽

Secondary Data ◽

Short Term ◽

Correction Model ◽

Food And Agriculture ◽

Food And Agriculture Organization ◽

Ministry Of Finance

This study aimed to determine the factors affected the soybean availability in Indonesia. This study used secondary data obtained from FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization), World Bank, and the Ministry of Finance. In this study, the data from 1964 to 2013 used to determine the factors affected soybean availability in Indonesia . The Error Correction Model (ECM) was used to determine the factors affected soybean availability. The results showed that (1) the data were stationary at first difference; (2) the data used co-integrated means long-term parameters; (3) ECT coefficient was 0.846 (significant at α = 5%) indicated the model used was valid. Soybean availability in Indonesia in the short term was positively influenced by the total planted area, total soybean consumption, and soybean import tariffs. In the long term, soybean availability in Indonesia was positively influenced by the total planted area, productivity of soybean, domestic soybean prices, soybean consumption, and rupiah exchange rate to dollar. In the long-term, availability of soybeans was negatively affected by the price of imported soybean.

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