scholarly journals Key Rate and Loan Market in Russia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. M. Borodachev
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Kalman Filter ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Average Rate ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Loan Market ◽  
State Of The Economy ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Impact

The paper proposes a mechanism for the impact of changes in the key rate on the volume of newly issued loans. The volume depends on the price (interest rates on loans), and the price depends on the key rate and the actual consumption of loans in the previous period (generalized cobweb cycle). The model was estimated by a Kalman filter, adequacy was confirmed by simulation. It is possible to forecast the average rate on loans for a month in advance according to the information published by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (CB). By playing various scenarios for changing the key rate, it was found that in quiet periods of economic development, the usual laws of supply and demand operate in the loan market and by raising the key rate, you can reduce inflation. In the turbulent (overheated) state of the economy, an increase in the key rate can, on the contrary, provoke an increase in the issuance of loans and unconventional manipulations with the key rate are required.

scholarly journals Key Rate and Loan Market in Russia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. M. Borodachev
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Kalman Filter ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Average Rate ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Loan Market ◽  
State Of The Economy ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Impact

The paper proposes a mechanism for the impact of changes in the key rate on the volume of newly issued loans. The volume depends on the price (interest rates on loans), and the price depends on the key rate and the actual consumption of loans in the previous period (generalized cobweb cycle). The model was estimated by a Kalman filter, adequacy was confirmed by simulation. It is possible to forecast the average rate on loans for a month in advance according to the information published by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (CB). By playing various scenarios for changing the key rate, it was found that in quiet periods of economic development, the usual laws of supply and demand operate in the loan market and by raising the key rate, you can reduce inflation. In the turbulent (overheated) state of the economy, an increase in the key rate can, on the contrary, provoke an increase in the issuance of loans and unconventional manipulations with the key rate are required.

scholarly journals International Migration as a Factor of Social and Economic Development of Russia

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 37-46
Author(s):  
I. I. Glebkova ◽  
T. A. Dolbik-Vorobey
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Migration Policy ◽  
The State ◽  
Economic Indicators ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Impact ◽  
External Migration ◽  
Demographic Policy

Purpose of research. The article examines the human potential of the Russian Federation in the context of the established second wave of the demographic crisis. The article analyzes the state of the number, composition and structure of the population of the Russian Federation during the first (1992–2012) and second demographic crisis (2016 and up to the present), taking into account the factors of population reproduction (birth rate and mortality) and migration inflows to the country. Factors and causes of external migration with the CIS countries are identified, as they have been and remain the main donors for replenishing the population of the Russian Federation. On the basis of analytical indicators of dynamics and methods of statistical relationships, an assessment of external migration growth and its impact on the country's economy is carried out. Special attention is paid to measures taken at the state level to stabilize and improve migration problems.Materials and methods. The information base of the study is statistical data and analytical information on external migration flows, based on statistical surveys conducted in the country. The methodological basis of the research is represented by statistical methods of information analysis: comparative analysis, structural and dynamic analysis, analysis of the interrelationships of migration and economic indicators.Results. The article analyzes in detail the results of current events in the country during periods of demographic decline and population growth since 1992. Due to the demographic policy implemented in the country, as well as the peculiarities of the age and gender structure of the population, it is proved that the main component for population growth is still the migration inflow. Special attention is paid to external labor migration in recent years. The impact of migration growth on economic indicators (unemployment rate, real wages, index of physical volume of GDP) and the development of the economy as a whole are estimated. Also, on the scale of the State National Policy Strategy being implemented until 2025, state measures to stabilize and improve the situation in the field of migration policy are presented and analyzed.Conclusion. Due to the fact that migration policy is a defining component of demographic policy, which is currently one of the priorities of the state's development, it is advisable to regularly study external migration as one of the most important sources of replenishment of human capital and hence the development of the country's economy. Therefore, the government of the Russian Federation should pay special attention to measures to attract foreign highly qualified labor force in active working age; providing foreign students who have successfully completed their studies and defended their diplomas in Russian universities with the opportunity to find a job in our country in order to obtain Russian citizenship and create a family in Russia. As well as carrying out regular monitoring studies on adaptation of foreign citizens, taking into account regional peculiarities of development of economy of our country, because today in the conditions of demographic decline of the Russian population it is one of the main sources of economic development on the geopolitical level, as labor potential – a basis for national economic growth.

Russian Labour Market: Trends and Transformations

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (10) ◽  
pp. 120-126
Author(s):  
A. Tomskikh ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Labour Market ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
World Market ◽  
Market Development ◽  
Global Trends ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Government

he article deals with the multifactorial aspects of the labour market development as a special economic category: stages of development, impact of the economic crisis, trends during the pandemic, movement of employment and unemployment, etc. The analysis of the situation on the labour market, both in the whole world, and in the context of Russia and its subjects, is carried out. Trends in the development of the labour market are shown through the prism of global trends in economic development and the specifics of decision-making at the level of the Russian Federation since 1989, the period of transformation of its socio-economic development and entry into the world market. Much attention is paid to the situational response of the labour market to the global coronavirus pandemic in terms of analyzing the supply and demand of vacancies, salaries and their dynamics over the past year of the largest recruitment portal in the country. The risk sectors of the labour market development are shown for the territory of Russia as a whole, federal districts and subjects of the federation. The conclusion is made about sufficient decisions of the government of the Russian Federation in the pre-crisis period and forced anti-crisis actions during the pandemic in the conditions of long-term sanctions by key world actors. The measures necessary for the adoption of federal decisions to reduce the strain on the labour market in the long term, taking into account the reduction in the economy’s income, are outlined: closing more territories or sectors of the labor market to foreign labour, organizing jobs at real enterprises, optimizing the flow of domestic labour migration and new technological solutions in the economy

Does the investment climate rating influence the economic development of the region?

2019 ◽  
pp. 90-102
Author(s):  
Philipp S. Kartaev ◽  
Konstantin E. Polunin
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Skilled Labor ◽  
Investment Climate ◽  
Highly Skilled ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
National Investment ◽  
The Impact

The paper examines the impact of improving the characteristics of the national investment climate rating of a subject of the Russian Federation on economic development. Based on the analysis of regional panel data for the period from 2014 to 2018, it was shown that an increase in the rating of a region is associated with an inflow of investments and an increase in GRP. One of the identified channels of this influence is associated with the market of highly skilled labor. It is demonstrated that, given the inaccessibility of detailed information about the results of the regions development to investors, the rating does not fully function as a signal to them. Based on the obtained results, the recommendations for improving the rating methodology were formulated.

scholarly journals The informal sector in the structure of the national economy: Simulation and evaluation

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 292-304
Author(s):  
Olga Lizina ◽  
Dinara Bistyaykina ◽  
Eka Ermakova ◽  
Tatyana Badokina ◽  
Tatiana Solovyeva
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Factor Analysis ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
National Economy ◽  
Shadow Economy ◽  
Mimic Model ◽  
Government Regulations ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Simulation And Evaluation ◽  
The Impact

The research into the shadow economy has scientific and practical value. Any state is interested in evaluating the size of the shadow economy as it affects the goals and priorities of the country’s development. This study presents a model for evaluating the shadow economy in the Russian Federation. The authors developed and analyzed an approach to measuring the shadow economy based on factor analysis and a MIMIC model. The study features the factor analysis of the official statistics for Russia over the period from 1992 to 2019, with more than 150 indicators characterizing different spheres of the life of the country. The authors determined the factors affected by the shadow economy, built a MIMIC model on this basis, and estimated the size of the shadow economy in Russia. Assessing the size of shadow activity is important for analyzing economic development and the impact of government regulations on the shadow sector

scholarly journals Statistical analysis of the driving forces of anthropogenic impact on the environment

2020 ◽  
Vol 208 ◽  
pp. 01017
Author(s):  
Mikhail G. Prokopyev ◽  
Anton D. Vitukhin
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Population Size ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Anthropogenic Impact ◽  
Driving Forces ◽  
Technological Factor ◽  
Level Of Economic Development ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Impact

The aim of the study is to analyze the driving forces of the impact of human activities on the environment. The problem of assessing the influence of the population size, the level of economic development, as well as the technological factor on the volume of emissions of pollutants into the atmospheric air in the regions of the Russian Federation is considered. A retrospective of models for analyzing the main driving forces of anthropogenic impact on the environment is presented. The study is based on the STIRPAT model. The results of the econometric assessment showed that both the population and the level of economic development (GRP per capita) have a decisive influence on the increase in air emissions in the regions of the Russian Federation. A decrease in the energy intensity of GRP, as well as the share of manufacturing and extractive industries in the sectoral structure of GRP, also leads to a significant decrease in the environmental load. However, the values of the corresponding environmental elasticities are significantly lower than the elasticities of emissions of pollutants into the atmosphere with changes in population size and economic growth (GRP per capita).

IMPACT OF THE PANDEMIC ON THE STATE AND TRENDS OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE AGRARIAN SECTOR OF RUSSIA

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (12) ◽  
pp. 36-43
Author(s):  
Abrar B. Yarlykapov ◽  
◽  
Vladimir V. Shevtsov ◽  
Galina G. Karpenko ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Quality Of Life ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Financial Sustainability ◽  
Agricultural Economy ◽  
Agrarian Sector ◽  
Socio Economic Development ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Impact

The article analyzes the impact of the pandemic on the socio-economic development of the agricultural economy of the country and its individual regions, levels of quality of life and financial sustainability of the largest agricultural holdings both at the federal, regional levels and at the level of economic entities of the Russian Federation.

scholarly journals 5.8. IMPACT OF BUDGET MONITORING RESULTS ON MACROECONOMIC POLICY

2021 ◽  
pp. 118-122
Author(s):  
Е.А. Посная ◽  
Б.А. Букач ◽  
Д.В. Черемисинова ◽  
А.А. Кургинян
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Monitoring System ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Budget Process ◽  
Effective Activity ◽  
Social And Economic Development ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Practical Recommendations

В статье рассматривается влияние бюджетного мониторинга на политику страны в части наиболее эффективного экономического развития. Анализируются тенденции изменения основных макроэкономических показателей с учетом влияния системы бюджетного мониторинга. Сделаны выводы и даны практические рекомендации относительно эффективного формирования системы бюджетного мониторинга. Бюджетная система страны является фундаментом для эффективной деятельности государственных органов власти, органов местного самоуправления в области социального и экономического развития соответствующих территорий. Современная бюджетная система Российской Федерации неизбежно требует тщательного контроля и непрерывного надзора над соблюдением всех необходимых законодательных норм на всех стадиях бюджетного процесса. Контроль над расходованием бюджетных средств является наиболее актуальной и острой проблемой на сегодняшний день. The article examines the impact of budget monitoring on the country's policy in terms of the most effective economic development. Trends in changes in the main macroeconomic indicators are analyzed, taking into account the impact of the budget monitoring system. Conclusions are made and practical recommendations are given regarding the effective formation of a budget monitoring system. The budgetary system of the country is the foundation for the effective activity of state authorities, local authorities in the field of social and economic development of the respective territories. The modern budgetary system of the Russian Federation inevitably requires careful control and continuous supervision over the observance of all necessary legislative norms at all stages of the budget process. Control over the spending of budget funds is the most pressing and acute problem today.

scholarly journals Assessment of efficiency of language policy as the institutional framework of economic policy in the Russian Federation

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-27
Author(s):  
Andrei Aleksandrovich Linchenko ◽  
Ol'ga Yur'evna Smyslova ◽  
Dar'ya Valentinovna Lakomova
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Language Policy ◽  
Conceptual Model ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Institutional Framework ◽  
Economic Literacy ◽  
Management Tools ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Impact

This article is dedicated to elaboration of the conceptual model and methodology for assessing the efficiency of language policy as the institutional framework of economic policy in the conditions of monolingual region of the Russian Federation. Application of the constructivist approach allowed determining the important role of symbolic space as an environment of the influence of language policy on economic development. The article substantiates the idea of transformation of the basic symbolic metaphor of language, which consists in transition from the metaphor of language as a “mirror"” to the metaphor of language as a “dialogue”. It is underlined that such transformation reorients language policy towards the perception of language as the active means for constructing social reality and socioeconomic relations, as well as forces to constantly clarify and revise its functional role in the economic culture. The novelty of this work consists in elaboration of the conceptual model and methodology for assessing the efficiency of language policy as the institutional framework of economic policy in the conditions of monolingual region. It is proven that there is a dependence, as well as immediate vicarious link between the language policy and the level of economic development of the region. The author establishes that namely the economic literacy is the resulting relevant criterion for assessing efficiency of the impact of language policy upon economic development of the region. It demonstrated that comprehensive assessment of efficiency of the impact of language policy upon economic development of the region is feasible within the framework of administrative, academic, educational, information and cultural management tools.

scholarly journals Impact of Anti-Russian Sanctions on Some Macroeconomic Indicators of Russia’s Development

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 34-40
Author(s):  
S. Kazantsev
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Financial Economic ◽  
Financial Resources ◽  
Capital Investments ◽  
Capital Productivity ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Impact

Measures, imposed on the Russian Federation in 2014 to isolate Russia from the world community, were called sanctions. Their immediate goal is to deprive Russia of resources (financial, economic, technical and technological, information, scientific, cultural) that are needed for its development. The sanctioning countries suppose that the damage caused by their sanctions will weaken the socio-economic, military-political, scientific and technological potential of Russia. Some results of the author’s analysis of the impact of sanctions on the macroeconomic indicators of the Russian Federation i presented in this paper. The following indicators were studied: the volume of financial resources provided to Russian organizations, individuals and credit organizations; the volume and dynamics of capital investments and fixed assets; gross domestic product and industrial output; labour and capital productivity, and some other indicators. The years in which anti-Russian sanctions caused the most considerable damage have been identified. The author also shows that the negative impact of sanctions on the economic development of the country is, in many ways, similar to the damage, caused by the global financial and economic crises. The similarity of their impact is because both crises and sanctions deprive the country of resources for economic development. First of all, we are talking about financial resources.

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