scholarly journals Potential suitable habitat of Eleusine coracana (L) Gaertn (Finger millet) under the climate change scenarios in Nepal

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dol Raj Luitel ◽  
Mohan Siwakoti ◽  
Mohan D. Joshi ◽  
Muniappan Rangaswami ◽  
Pramod K. Jha
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Finger Millet ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Policy Framing ◽  
Maxent Model ◽  
Predictive Variables ◽  
Key Words Climate Change ◽  
The Future

Abstract Background: Finger millet is the fourth major crop in Nepal and is cultivated in a traditional integrated subsistence system. Timely rain and appropriate temperature predominately affects crop distribution and yield. Climate change is evident in Nepal and it is imperative to understand how it affects habitat suitability of finger millet. Mapping the current suitable habitat and predicting the potential changes in the future is important for maximizing production and minimizing the loss of local landraces. Results: Maxent model was used in this study to quantify the current suitable habitat and changes in the future habitat suitability of finger millet under different climate scenarios, based on representative concentration pathways (RCP)(RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5) in two different time periods (2050 and 2070AD) using climatic predictive variables and species localities. The model shows that 39.7% (58512.71km 2 ) area of Nepal is highly suitable for finger millet, with cultivation mostly between 96-2300m above sea level. Eastern and central parts of Nepal have more suitable areas than western parts. Our research clearly shows that the future climatic suitable area of finger millet would shrink by 4.3 to 8.9% in 2050 and 8.9-10.5%under different RCPs by 2070. Conclusion: Finger millet is mostly cultivated in mid-hill terraces. The substantial increase in temperature due to climate change may be one reason for decrease in habitat suitability of finger millet. This situation would further threat loss of local landraces of finger millet in the future. The findings can help in planning and policy framing for climate resilient smart agriculture practice. Key words : Climate change, finger millet, habitat suitability, Maxent model

scholarly journals Potential suitable habitat of Eleusine coracana (L) Gaertn (Finger millet) under the climate change scenarios in Nepal

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dol Raj Luitel ◽  
Mohan Siwakoti ◽  
Mohan D. Joshi ◽  
Muniappan Rangaswami ◽  
Pramod K. Jha
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Finger Millet ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Policy Framing ◽  
Maxent Model ◽  
Predictive Variables ◽  
Key Words Climate Change ◽  
The Future

Abstract Abstract Background: Finger millet is the fourth major crop in Nepal and is cultivated in a traditional integrated subsistence system. Timely rain and appropriate temperature predominately affects crop distribution and yield. Climate change is evident in Nepal and it is imperative to understand how it affects habitat suitability of finger millet. Main objective of this study was to map the current suitable habitat and predicting the potential changes in the future under different climate scenarios in Nepal. Habitat mapping is important for maximizing production and minimizing the loss of local landraces. Results: Maxent model was used in this study to quantify the current suitable habitat and changes in the future habitat suitability of finger millet, based on representative concentration pathways (RCP)(RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5) in two different time periods (2050 and 2070AD) using climatic predictive variables and species localities. The model shows that 39.7% (58512.71km2) area of Nepal is highly suitable for finger millet, with cultivation mostly between 96-2300m above sea level. Eastern and central parts of Nepal have more suitable areas than western parts. Our research clearly shows that the future climatic suitable area of finger millet would shrink by 4.3 to 8.9% in 2050 and 8.9-10.5% under different RCPs by 2070. Conclusion: Finger millet is mostly cultivated in mid-hill terraces. The substantial increase in temperature due to climate change may be one reason for decrease in habitat suitability of finger millet. This situation would further threat loss of local landraces of finger millet in the future. The findings can help in planning and policy framing for climate resilient smart agriculture practice. Key words: Climate change, finger millet, habitat suitability, Maxent model

scholarly journals Potential suitable habitat of Eleusine coracana (L) gaertn (Finger millet) under the climate change scenarios in Nepal

BMC Ecology ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dol Raj Luitel ◽  
Mohan Siwakoti ◽  
Mohan D. Joshi ◽  
Muniappan Rangaswami ◽  
Pramod K. Jha
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Finger Millet ◽  
Eleusine Coracana ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios

scholarly journals Predicting the Bioclimatic Habitat Suitability of Ginkgo biloba L. in China with Field-Test Validations

Forests ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 705 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ying Guo ◽  
Jing Guo ◽  
Xin Shen ◽  
Guibin Wang ◽  
Tongli Wang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Field Test ◽  
Ginkgo Biloba ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Leaf Traits ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Living Fossil ◽  
Model Predictions ◽  
The Impact

Ginkgo (Ginkgo biloba L.) is not only considered a ‘living fossil’, but also has important ecological, economic, and medicinal values. However, the impact of climate change on the performance and distribution of this plant is an increasing concern. In this study, we developed a bioclimatic model based on data about the occurrence of ginkgo from 277 locations, and validated model predictions using a wide-ranging field test (12 test sites, located at the areas from 22.49° N to 39.32° N, and 81.11° E to 123.53° E). We found that the degree-days below zero were the most important climate variable determining ginkgo distribution. Based on the model predictions, we classified the habitat suitability for ginkgo into four categories (high, medium, low, and unsuitable), accounting for 9.29%, 6.09%, 8.46%, and 76.16% of China’s land area, respectively. The ANOVA results of the validation test showed significant differences in observed leaf-traits among the four habitat types (p < 0.05), and importantly the rankings of the leaf traits were consistent with our classification of the habitat suitability, suggesting the effectiveness of our classification in terms of biological and economic significance. In addition, we projected that suitable (high and medium) habitats for ginkgo would shrink and shift northward under both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios for three future periods (the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s). However, the area of low-suitable habitat would increase, resulting in a slight decrease in unsuitable habitats. Our findings contribute to a better understanding of climate change impact on this plant and provide a scientific basis for developing adaptive strategies for future climate.

scholarly journals Shifts in habitat suitability and the conservation status of the Endangered Andean cat Leopardus jacobita under climate change scenarios

Oryx ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 53 (2) ◽  
pp. 356-367 ◽  
Author(s):  
Magdalena Bennett ◽  
Pablo A. Marquet ◽  
Claudio Sillero-Zubiri ◽  
Jorgelina Marino
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Protected Areas ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Conservation Status ◽  
Species Distribution Modelling ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Peruvian Andes ◽  
The Future ◽  
Species Specific ◽  
Lagidium Viscacia

AbstractOrganisms adapted to life at high elevations are particularly threatened by climate change, which can cause them to become isolated on mountain tops, yet their responses may vary according to their position in the food chain and their ecological flexibility. Predicting the future distributions of such organisms requires fine-tuned species-specific models. Building on a previous ecological niche model, we explored shifts in the suitability of habitats for the Endangered Andean cat Leopardus jacobita, and assessed how these will be represented within existing protected areas in the future. Using a robust set of presence records and corrected climate surfaces, we applied the Maxent algorithm to model habitat suitability for this carnivore and for its preferred prey, the mountain viscacha Lagidium viscacia. Our predictions indicate that the areas climatically suitable for Andean cats could contract by up to 30% by 2080 under the most pessimistic scenario, with an overall upwards shift of 225 m and a polewards displacement of 98–180 km. The predicted range contraction was more pronounced in the species’ core range, in the Bolivian and Peruvian Andes, whereas suitable conditions may increase in the southern range in Patagonia. Bolivia and Peru are predicted to suffer the most marked decline in habitat representativeness within protected areas. The southern range appears to be less vulnerable to climate change, offering opportunities for the conservation of this genetically distinct population. We discuss the value and limitations of using species distribution modelling to assess changes in the potential distribution and conservation status of this and other Andean species.

scholarly journals Climate Change Can Drive a Significant Loss of Suitable Habitat for Polylepis quadrijuga, a Treeline Species in the Sky Islands of the Northern Andes

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lina Caballero-Villalobos ◽  
Francisco Fajardo-Gutiérrez ◽  
Mariasole Calbi ◽  
Gustavo A. Silva-Arias
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Ex Situ ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Sky Islands ◽  
Future Projections ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Future

It is predicted that climate change will strongly affect plant distributions in high elevation “sky islands” of tropical Andes. Polylepis forests are a dominant element of the treeline throughout the Andes Cordillera in South America. However, little is known about the climatic factors underlying the current distribution of Polylepis trees and the possible effect of global climate change. The species Polylepis quadrijuga is endemic to the Colombian Eastern Cordillera, where it plays a fundamental ecological role in high-altitude páramo-forest ecotones. We sought to evaluate the potential distribution of P. quadrijuga under future climate change scenarios using ensemble modeling approaches. We conducted a comprehensive assessment of future climatic projections deriving from 12 different general circulation models (GCMs), four Representative Concentration Pathways (R) emissions scenarios, and two different time frames (2041–2060 and 2061–2080). Additionally, based on the future projections, we evaluate the effectiveness of the National System of Protected Natural Areas of Colombia (SINAP) and Páramo Complexes of Colombia (PCC) in protecting P. quadrijuga woodlands. Here, we compiled a comprehensive set of observations of P. quadrijuga and study them in connection with climatic and topographic variables to identify environmental predictors of the species distribution, possible habitat differentiation throughout the geographic distribution of the species, and predict the effect of different climate change scenarios on the future distribution of P. quadrijuga. Our results predict a dramatic loss of suitable habitat due to climate change on this key tropical Andean treeline species. The ensemble Habitat Suitability Modeling (HSM) shows differences in suitable scores among north and south regions of the species distribution consistent with differences in topographic features throughout the available habitat of P. quadrijuga. Future projections of the HSM predicted the Páramo complex “Sumapaz-Cruz Verde” as a major area for the long-term conservation of P. quadrijuga because it provides a wide range of suitable habitats for the different evaluated climate change scenarios. We provide the first set of priority areas to perform both in situ and ex situ conservation efforts based on suitable habitat projections.

scholarly journals Predicting Possible Distribution of Tea (Camellia sinensis L.) under Climate Change Scenarios Using MaxEnt Model in China

Agriculture ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 1122
Author(s):  
Yuncheng Zhao ◽  
Mingyue Zhao ◽  
Lei Zhang ◽  
Chunyi Wang ◽  
Yinlong Xu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Camellia Sinensis ◽  
Current Distribution ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Land Area ◽  
Maxent Model ◽  
The Future ◽  
Tea Production ◽  
Suitable Habitats

Climate change has dramatic impacts on the growth and the geographical distribution of tea (Camellia sinensis L.). Assessing the potential distribution of tea will help decision makers to formulate appropriate adaptation measures to use the altered climatic resources and avoid the damage from climate hazards. The objective in this study is to model the current and future distribution of tea species based on the four SSPs scenarios using the MaxEnt model in China. For the modeling procedure, tea growth records in 410 sites and 9 climate variables were used in this paper. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) was used to evaluate the performance of the model. The AUC value was over 0.9 in this study, showing the excellent simulation result of the model. In relation to the current distribution, areas of 82.01 × 104 km2 (8.51% of total land area in China), 115.97 × 104 km2 (12.03% of total land area in China), and 67.14 × 104 km2 (6.97% of total land area in China) were recognized as Marginal, Medium, and Optimal climate suitable habitats for tea over China. Compared to the current distribution, most of the Optimal suitability areas in southeast China would be lost in four scenarios. The area of Marginal and Medium suitable habitats would expand in SSP370 and SSP585, especially in 2041–2061 and 2081–2100. The suitable area of tea would expand northwards and westwards, suggesting that additional new suitable habitats could be created for tea production with the future climate change, especially in Shandong, Henan, Guizhou, and Yunnan Provinces. This research would provide vital scientific understanding for policy making on tea production, tea garden site chosen and adopyion of adaptation methods in the future.

scholarly journals Climate Change Impacts on Atlantic Oceanic Island Tuna Fisheries

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bryony L. Townhill ◽  
Elena Couce ◽  
James Bell ◽  
Stuart Reeves ◽  
Oliver Yates
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
The Other ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Tristan Da Cunha ◽  
Ascension Island ◽  
The Future ◽  
Overseas Territories

Climate change is already affecting the distributions of marine fish, and future change is expected to have a particularly large impact on small islands that are reliant on the sea for much of their income. This study aims to develop an understanding of how climate change may affect the distribution of commercially important tuna in the waters around the United Kingdom’s Overseas Territories in the South Atlantic. The future suitable habitat of southern bluefin, albacore, bigeye, yellowfin and skipjack tunas were modelled under two future climate change scenarios. Of all the tunas, the waters of Tristan da Cunha are the most suitable for southern bluefin, and overall, the environmental conditions will remain so in the future. Tristan da Cunha is not projected to become more suitable for any of the other tuna species in the future. For the other tuna species, Ascension Island and Saint Helena will become more suitable in the future, particularly so for skipjack tuna around Ascension Island, as the temperature and salinity conditions change in these areas. Large marine protected areas have been designated around the territories, with those in Ascension and Tristan da Cunha closed to tuna fishing. Although these areas are small relative to the whole Atlantic, these model projections could be useful in understanding whether this protection will benefit tuna populations into the future, particularly where there is high site fidelity.

scholarly journals Modeling the Impacts of Climate Changes on the Distribution of Aloe vera Species in Ethiopia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdulbasit Hussein ◽  
Sintayehu Workeneh
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Forest Cover ◽  
Aloe Vera ◽  
Distribution Area ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Forest Protection ◽  
The Future ◽  
Global Biodiversity

Abstract Climate change is considered to be one of the most significant challenges to global biodiversity in the 21st century and remains the greatest challenge to biodiversity conservation in the future. Consequently, understanding the effects of climate change on biodiversity can enhance conservation efforts. The use of niche modeling to predict changes in the suitable distribution of species under climate change scenarios is becoming a hot topic of biological conservation. Thus, this study investigated the impacts of climate changes on the distribution of Aloe vera species of concern in Ethiopia. Occurrence data were obtained from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF; www.gbif.org/ (1 March 2021)) and specimen collection of the Ethiopian biodiversity institute. Maxent models were used to predict the potential suitable distribution of the Aloe vera species under different climate change scenarios in the present day (the 2020s) 2050s, and 2070s in Ethiopia. In the modeling process, the Akaike information criterion (AIC) was used to choose the best combination of feature type and regularization multiplier. Variables relating to temperature and precipitation were more important variables in predicting Aloe vera species distribution in the optimal model. The predicted suitable distribution areas of Aloe vera were different for the different periods under different climate change scenarios. The suitable distribution area is predicted to become more fragmented in the future. Results reveal the climate conditions suffer the distribution of Aloe vera in Ethiopia and the likely changes to its distribution pattern in the future and Aloe vera are under great threat of extinction from climate changes, providing a scientific basis for the sustainable management, protection, and restoration of the suitable habitat of this economically important vegetation in the context of changing climate condition. Therefore, increased forest protection to prevent further forest cover losses will be key for the Aloe vera species conservation.

scholarly journals Predictions of potential geographical distribution and quality ofSchisandra sphenantheraunder climate change

PeerJ ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
pp. e2554 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yanlong Guo ◽  
Haiyan Wei ◽  
Chunyan Lu ◽  
Bei Gao ◽  
Wei Gu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Medicinal Plants ◽  
Fuzzy Theory ◽  
Plant Distribution ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Entropy Model ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
The Future

Climate change will significantly affect plant distribution as well as the quality of medicinal plants. Although numerous studies have analyzed the effect of climate change on future habitats of plants through species distribution models (SDMs), few of them have incorporated the change of effective content of medicinal plants.Schisandra sphenantheraRehd. et Wils. is an endangered traditional Chinese medical plant which is mainly located in the Qinling Mountains. Combining fuzzy theory and a maximum entropy model, we obtained current spatial distribution of quality assessment forS. spenanthera. Moreover, the future quality and distribution ofS. spenantherawere also projected for the periods 2020s, 2050s and 2080s under three different climate change scenarios (SRES-A1B, SRES-A2 and SRES-B1 emission scenarios) described in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). The results showed that the moderately suitable habitat ofS. sphenantheraunder all climate change scenarios remained relatively stable in the study area. The highly suitable habitat ofS. sphenantherawould gradually decrease in the future and a higher decline rate of the highly suitable habitat area would occur under climate change scenarios SRES-A1B and SRES-A2. The result suggested that in the study area, there would be no more highly suitable habitat areas forS. sphenantherawhen the annual mean temperature exceeds 20 °C or its annual precipitation exceeds 1,200 mm. Our results will be influential in the future ecological conservation and management ofS. sphenantheraand can be taken as a reference for habitat suitability assessment research for other medicinal plants.

scholarly journals Potential distribution and habitat suitability of Picea crassifolia with climate change scenarios

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuan Gao ◽  
Zhibin He ◽  
Xi Zhu ◽  
Longfei Chen ◽  
Jun Du ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Environmental Variables ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Yellow River ◽  
Tibet Plateau ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Helan Mountains ◽  
Qinghai Tibet Plateau

The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in China is a region strongly impacted by climate change, yet its effects are unknown on the keystone endemic forest species, P. crassifolia. Understanding changes in potential distribution and habitat suitability of P. crassifolia forest with the climate change will contribute to water conservation, forest management, and ecological protection in the upper reaches of the Yellow River. A total of 129 records of species distribution data and 19 environmental variables were chosen for modeling. The MaxEnt model was used to analyze the main environmental factors affecting the potential distribution of P. crassifolia in two periods (2050s and 2070s) and four representative emission pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP 8.5). The main results are follows: (1) the most important environmental variables affecting distribution of P. crassifolia and percentage variance explained were: altitude (41.85%), precipitation of driest month (19.76%), slope (12.35%), annual precipitation (6.56%), precipitation of wettest month (5.73%), and precipitation of warmest quarter (5.12%), (2) habitat suitability of P. crassifolia shifted to the northwest and into high-altitude areas under climate change scenarios, but its core distribution areas were concentrated in northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Qilian Mountains, southern Ningxia, and Helan Mountains, (3) total area of potential suitable habitat of P. crassifolia will change significantly in the future, and change of habitat area of not suitable, low, moderate, and high suitability exceed 60%.

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