scholarly journals Potential distribution and habitat suitability of Picea crassifolia with climate change scenarios

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuan Gao ◽  
Zhibin He ◽  
Xi Zhu ◽  
Longfei Chen ◽  
Jun Du ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Environmental Variables ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Yellow River ◽  
Tibet Plateau ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Helan Mountains ◽  
Qinghai Tibet Plateau

The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in China is a region strongly impacted by climate change, yet its effects are unknown on the keystone endemic forest species, P. crassifolia. Understanding changes in potential distribution and habitat suitability of P. crassifolia forest with the climate change will contribute to water conservation, forest management, and ecological protection in the upper reaches of the Yellow River. A total of 129 records of species distribution data and 19 environmental variables were chosen for modeling. The MaxEnt model was used to analyze the main environmental factors affecting the potential distribution of P. crassifolia in two periods (2050s and 2070s) and four representative emission pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP 8.5). The main results are follows: (1) the most important environmental variables affecting distribution of P. crassifolia and percentage variance explained were: altitude (41.85%), precipitation of driest month (19.76%), slope (12.35%), annual precipitation (6.56%), precipitation of wettest month (5.73%), and precipitation of warmest quarter (5.12%), (2) habitat suitability of P. crassifolia shifted to the northwest and into high-altitude areas under climate change scenarios, but its core distribution areas were concentrated in northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Qilian Mountains, southern Ningxia, and Helan Mountains, (3) total area of potential suitable habitat of P. crassifolia will change significantly in the future, and change of habitat area of not suitable, low, moderate, and high suitability exceed 60%.

scholarly journals Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Potential Distribution of Meconopsis punicea and Its Influence on Ecosystem Services Supply in the Southeastern Margin of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

2022 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ning Shi ◽  
Niyati Naudiyal ◽  
Jinniu Wang ◽  
Narayan Prasad Gaire ◽  
Yan Wu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Tibet Plateau ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Model Output ◽  
Southeastern Margin ◽  
Qinghai Tibet Plateau

Meconopsis punicea is an iconic ornamental and medicinal plant whose natural habitat has degraded under global climate change, posing a serious threat to the future survival of the species. Therefore, it is critical to analyze the influence of climate change on possible distribution of M. punicea for conservation and sustainable utilization of this species. In this study, we used MaxEnt ecological niche modeling to predict the potential distribution of M. punicea under current and future climate scenarios in the southeastern margin region of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Model projections under current climate show that 16.8% of the study area is suitable habitat for Meconopsis. However, future projections indicate a sharp decline in potential habitat for 2050 and 2070 climate change scenarios. Soil type was the most important environmental variable in determining the habitat suitability of M. punicea, with 27.75% contribution to model output. Temperature seasonality (16.41%), precipitation of warmest quarter (14.01%), and precipitation of wettest month (13.02%), precipitation seasonality (9.41%) and annual temperature range (9.24%) also made significant contributions to model output. The mean elevation of suitable habitat for distribution of M. punicea is also likely to shift upward in most future climate change scenarios. This study provides vital information for the protection and sustainable use of medicinal species like M. punicea in the context of global environmental change. Our findings can aid in developing rational, broad-scale adaptation strategies for conservation and management for ecosystem services, in light of future climate changes.

scholarly journals Mapping current and potential future distributions of the oak tree (Quercus aegilops) in the Kurdistan Region, Iraq

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nabaz R. Khwarahm
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Environmental Variables ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Kurdistan Region ◽  
Oak Tree

Abstract Background The oak tree (Quercus aegilops) comprises ~ 70% of the oak forests in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI). Besides its ecological importance as the residence for various endemic and migratory species, Q. aegilops forest also has socio-economic values—for example, as fodder for livestock, building material, medicine, charcoal, and firewood. In the KRI, Q. aegilops has been degrading due to anthropogenic threats (e.g., shifting cultivation, land use/land cover changes, civil war, and inadequate forest management policy) and these threats could increase as climate changes. In the KRI and Iraq as a whole, information on current and potential future geographical distributions of Q. aegilops is minimal or not existent. The objectives of this study were to (i) predict the current and future habitat suitability distributions of the species in relation to environmental variables and future climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 2070 and RCP8.5 2070); and (ii) determine the most important environmental variables controlling the distribution of the species in the KRI. The objectives were achieved by using the MaxEnt (maximum entropy) algorithm, available records of Q. aegilops, and environmental variables. Results The model demonstrated that, under the RCP2.6 2070 and RCP8.5 2070 climate change scenarios, the distribution ranges of Q. aegilops would be reduced by 3.6% (1849.7 km2) and 3.16% (1627.1 km2), respectively. By contrast, the species ranges would expand by 1.5% (777.0 km2) and 1.7% (848.0 km2), respectively. The distribution of the species was mainly controlled by annual precipitation. Under future climate change scenarios, the centroid of the distribution would shift toward higher altitudes. Conclusions The results suggest (i) a significant suitable habitat range of the species will be lost in the KRI due to climate change by 2070 and (ii) the preference of the species for cooler areas (high altitude) with high annual precipitation. Conservation actions should focus on the mountainous areas (e.g., by establishment of national parks and protected areas) of the KRI as climate changes. These findings provide useful benchmarking guidance for the future investigation of the ecology of the oak forest, and the categorical current and potential habitat suitability maps can effectively be used to improve biodiversity conservation plans and management actions in the KRI and Iraq as a whole.

scholarly journals Current and future suitable habitat areas for Nasuella olivacea (Gray, 1865) in Colombia and Ecuador and analysis of its distribution across different land uses

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pablo Medrano-Vizcaíno ◽  
Patricia Gutiérrez-Salazar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Wildlife Conservation ◽  
Distribution Patterns ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Ecological Niche Models

Nasuella olivacea is an endemic mammal from the Andes of Ecuador and Colombia. Due to its rarity, aspects about its natural history, ecology and distribution patterns are not well known, therefore, research is needed to generate knowledge about this carnivore and a first step is studying suitable habitat areas. We performed Ecological Niche Models and applied future climate change scenarios (2.6 and 8.5 RCP) to determine the potential distribution of this mammal in Colombia and Ecuador, with current and future climate change conditions; furthermore, we analysed its distribution along several land covers. We found that N. olivacea is likely to be found in areas where no records have been reported previously; likewise, climate change conditions would increase suitable distribution areas. Concerning land cover, 73.4% of N. olivacea potential distribution was located outside Protected Areas (PA), 46.1% in Forests and 40.3% in Agricultural Lands. These findings highlight the need to further research understudied species, furthering our understanding about distribution trends and responses to changing climatic conditions, as well as informig future PA designing. These are essential tools for supporting wildlife conservation plans, being applicable for rare species whose biology and ecology remain unknown.

scholarly journals Current and Future Potential Distribution of the Xerophytic Shrub Candelilla (Euphorbia antisyphilitica) under Two Climate Change Scenarios

Forests ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 530 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gonzalo Vargas-Piedra ◽  
Ricardo David Valdez-Cepeda ◽  
Armando López-Santos ◽  
Arnoldo Flores-Hernández ◽  
Nathalie S. Hernández-Quiroz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North America ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Importance ◽  
Distribution Area ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios

Candelilla (Euphorbia antisyphilitica Zucc.) is a shrub species distributed throughout the Chihuahuan Desert in northern Mexico and southern of the United States of America. Candelilla has an economic importance due to natural wax it produces. The economic importance and the intense harvest of the wax from candelilla seems to gradually reduce the natural populations of this species. The essence of this research was to project the potential distribution of candelilla populations under different climate change scenarios in its natural distribution area in North America. We created a spatial database with points of candelilla presence, according to the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF). A spatial analysis to predict the potential distribution of the species using Maxent software was performed. Thirteen of 19 variables from the WorldClim database were used for two scenarios of representative concentration pathways (RCPs) (4.5 as a conservative and 8.5 as extreme). We used climate projections from three global climate models (GCMs) (Max Planck institute, the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and the Met Office Hadley), each simulating the two scenarios. The final predicted distribution areas were classified in five on-site possible candelilla habitat suitability categories: none (< 19%), low (20–38%), medium (39–57%), high (58–76%) and very high (> 77%). According to the area under the curve (0.970), the models and scenarios used showed an adequate fit to project the current and future distribution of candelilla. The variable that contributed the most in the three GCMs and the two RCPs was the mean temperature of the coldest quarter with an influence of 45.7% (Jackknife test). The candelilla’s distribution area for North America was predicted as approximately 19.1 million hectares under the current conditions for the high habitat suitability; however, the projection for the next fifty years is not promising because the GCMs projected a reduction of more than 6.9 million hectares using either the conservative or extreme scenarios. The results are useful for conservation of the species in the area with vulnerable wild populations, as well as for the selection of new sites suitable for the species growth and cultivation while facing climate change.

scholarly journals Predicting the Bioclimatic Habitat Suitability of Ginkgo biloba L. in China with Field-Test Validations

Forests ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 705 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ying Guo ◽  
Jing Guo ◽  
Xin Shen ◽  
Guibin Wang ◽  
Tongli Wang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Field Test ◽  
Ginkgo Biloba ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Leaf Traits ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Living Fossil ◽  
Model Predictions ◽  
The Impact

Ginkgo (Ginkgo biloba L.) is not only considered a ‘living fossil’, but also has important ecological, economic, and medicinal values. However, the impact of climate change on the performance and distribution of this plant is an increasing concern. In this study, we developed a bioclimatic model based on data about the occurrence of ginkgo from 277 locations, and validated model predictions using a wide-ranging field test (12 test sites, located at the areas from 22.49° N to 39.32° N, and 81.11° E to 123.53° E). We found that the degree-days below zero were the most important climate variable determining ginkgo distribution. Based on the model predictions, we classified the habitat suitability for ginkgo into four categories (high, medium, low, and unsuitable), accounting for 9.29%, 6.09%, 8.46%, and 76.16% of China’s land area, respectively. The ANOVA results of the validation test showed significant differences in observed leaf-traits among the four habitat types (p < 0.05), and importantly the rankings of the leaf traits were consistent with our classification of the habitat suitability, suggesting the effectiveness of our classification in terms of biological and economic significance. In addition, we projected that suitable (high and medium) habitats for ginkgo would shrink and shift northward under both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios for three future periods (the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s). However, the area of low-suitable habitat would increase, resulting in a slight decrease in unsuitable habitats. Our findings contribute to a better understanding of climate change impact on this plant and provide a scientific basis for developing adaptive strategies for future climate.

scholarly journals Role of Maximum Entropy and Citizen Science to Study Habitat Suitability of Jacobin Cuckoo in Different Climate Change Scenarios

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (7) ◽  
pp. 463
Author(s):  
Priyanka Singh ◽  
Sameer Saran ◽  
Sultan Kocaman
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Maximum Entropy ◽  
Citizen Science ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Environmental Variables ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Bird Species ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios

Recent advancements in spatial modelling and mapping methods have opened up new horizons for monitoring the migration of bird species, which have been altered due to the climate change. The rise of citizen science has also aided the spatiotemporal data collection with associated attributes. The biodiversity data from citizen observatories can be employed in machine learning algorithms for predicting suitable environmental conditions for species’ survival and their future migration behaviours. In this study, different environmental variables effective in birds’ migrations were analysed, and their habitat suitability was assessed for future understanding of their responses in different climate change scenarios. The Jacobin cuckoo (Clamator jacobinus) was selected as the subject species, since their arrival to India has been traditionally considered as a sign for the start of the Indian monsoon season. For suitability predictions in current and future scenarios, maximum entropy (Maxent) modelling was carried out with environmental variables and species occurrences observed in India and Africa. For modelling, the correlation test was performed on the environmental variables (bioclimatic, precipitation, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, precipitation, wind and elevation). The results showed that precipitation-related variables played a significant role in suitability, and through reclassified habitat suitability maps, it was observed that the suitable areas of India and Africa might decrease in future climatic scenarios (SSPs 2.6, 4.5, 7.0 and 8.5) of 2030 and 2050. In addition, the suitability and unsuitability areas were calculated (in km2) to observe the subtle changes in the ecosystem. Such climate change studies can support biodiversity research and improve the agricultural economy.

scholarly journals Modelling the Effects of Climate Change on the Distribution of Endangered Cypripedium japonicum in China

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 429
Author(s):  
Yadong Xu ◽  
Yi Huang ◽  
Huiru Zhao ◽  
Meiling Yang ◽  
Yuqi Zhuang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Environmental Variables ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Species Distribution Model ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Mountainous Area ◽  
The Impact

Cypripedium japonicum is an endangered terrestrial orchid species with high ornamental and medicinal value. As global warming continues to intensify, the survival of C. japonicum will be further challenged. Understanding the impact of climate change on its potential distribution is of great significance to conserve this species. In this study, we established an ensemble species distribution model based on occurrence records of C. japonicum and 13 environmental variables to predict its potential distribution under current and future climatic conditions. The results show that the true skill statistic (TSS), Cohen’s kappa statistic (Kappa), and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values of the ensemble model were 0.968, 0.906, and 0.995, respectively, providing more robust predictions. The key environmental variables affecting the distribution of C. japonicum were the precipitation in the warmest quarter (Bio18) and the mean temperature in the driest quarter (Bio9). Under future climatic conditions, the total suitable habitat of C. japonicum will increase slightly and tend to migrate northwestward, but the highly suitable areas will be severely lost. By 2070, the loss of its highly suitable habitat area will reach 57.69–72.24% under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 respectively, and the highly suitable habitats in Zhejiang and Anhui will almost disappear. It is noteworthy that the highly suitable habitat of C. japonicum has never crossed the Qinba mountainous area during the migration process of the suitable habitat to the northwest. Meanwhile, as the best-preserved area of highly suitable habitat for C. japonicum in the future, the Qinba mountainous area is of great significance to protect the wild germplasm resources of C. japonicum. In addition, we found that most of the changes predicted for 2070 will already be seen in 2050; the problem of climate change may be more urgent than it is believed.

scholarly journals Genetic Diversity Analysis and Potential Distribution Prediction of Sophora moorcroftiana Endemic to Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, China

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 1106
Author(s):  
Lan Yang ◽  
Huie Li ◽  
Qian Li ◽  
Qiqiang Guo ◽  
Jiangrong Li
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Genetic Diversity ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Germplasm Conservation ◽  
Woody Species ◽  
Cold Weather ◽  
Tibet Plateau ◽  
Conservation Strategies ◽  
Qinghai Tibet Plateau ◽  
Sophora Moorcroftiana

Sophora moorcroftiana (Benth.) Baker is an endemic woody species distributed in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP), a part of the world characterized by high altitude and cold weather. In this study, the genetic diversity of S. moorcroftiana was evaluated based on 300 representative samples of 15 populations using 20 polymorphic SSR markers, and its potential distribution was predicted according to 19 bioclimatic factors using MaxEnt modeling. Results showed the population genetic diversity of S. moorcroftiana was generally not high (around 0.5), and the range of variation was small (0.437–0.539). Altitude, rather than other environmental factors, was the key factor affecting the present genetic diversity. Moreover, due to climate change in the QTP, the suitable area is increasing and will continue to increase by 48.35%, 84.44%, 101.98%, and 107.30% in the four future periods of 2030s, 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s, respectively, compared to the present, which is beneficial for S. moorcroftiana. These results will provide a theoretical basis for the development of germplasm conservation strategies for S. moorcroftiana and enrich information on the impacts of climate change on plants in the QTP.

scholarly journals Potential suitable habitat of Eleusine coracana (L) Gaertn (Finger millet) under the climate change scenarios in Nepal

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dol Raj Luitel ◽  
Mohan Siwakoti ◽  
Mohan D. Joshi ◽  
Muniappan Rangaswami ◽  
Pramod K. Jha
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Finger Millet ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Policy Framing ◽  
Maxent Model ◽  
Predictive Variables ◽  
Key Words Climate Change ◽  
The Future

Abstract Abstract Background: Finger millet is the fourth major crop in Nepal and is cultivated in a traditional integrated subsistence system. Timely rain and appropriate temperature predominately affects crop distribution and yield. Climate change is evident in Nepal and it is imperative to understand how it affects habitat suitability of finger millet. Main objective of this study was to map the current suitable habitat and predicting the potential changes in the future under different climate scenarios in Nepal. Habitat mapping is important for maximizing production and minimizing the loss of local landraces. Results: Maxent model was used in this study to quantify the current suitable habitat and changes in the future habitat suitability of finger millet, based on representative concentration pathways (RCP)(RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5) in two different time periods (2050 and 2070AD) using climatic predictive variables and species localities. The model shows that 39.7% (58512.71km2) area of Nepal is highly suitable for finger millet, with cultivation mostly between 96-2300m above sea level. Eastern and central parts of Nepal have more suitable areas than western parts. Our research clearly shows that the future climatic suitable area of finger millet would shrink by 4.3 to 8.9% in 2050 and 8.9-10.5% under different RCPs by 2070. Conclusion: Finger millet is mostly cultivated in mid-hill terraces. The substantial increase in temperature due to climate change may be one reason for decrease in habitat suitability of finger millet. This situation would further threat loss of local landraces of finger millet in the future. The findings can help in planning and policy framing for climate resilient smart agriculture practice. Key words: Climate change, finger millet, habitat suitability, Maxent model

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