scholarly journals Development and Validation of a Predictive Score and Application of Ultrasound for Difficult Caudal Epidural Blockade in Adult Patients：A Prospective Study

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jialian Zhao ◽  
Guohao Xie ◽  
Lihua Chu ◽  
Shengwen Song ◽  
Ya Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Predictive Ability ◽  
Predictive Score ◽  
Ultrasound Scan ◽  
Epidural Blockade ◽  
History Of ◽  
Sacral Hiatus ◽  
Development And Validation ◽  
Caudal Epidural

Abstract Background: We aimed to develop a predictive difficult caudal epidural blockade (pDCEB) model when ultrasound was not available and verify the role of ultrasound in difficult caudal epidural blockade(CEB).Methods: This study consisted of three phases. First, we prospectively enrolled 202 patients and assessed risk factors to develop the predictive scoring system. Second, we enrolled 87 patients to validate it. Third, we enrolled 68 patients with a high risk of difficult CEB (pDCEB score ≥ 3) and randomized them into ultrasound and landmark groups to verify the role of ultrasound. Result: The rate of difficult CEB was 14.98% overall 289 patients. We found a correlation of unclear palpation of the sacral hiatus (OR 9.688) and cornua (OR 4.725), number of the sacral hiatus by palpation ≥ 1 (OR 4.451), and history of difficult CEB (OR 39.282) with higher possibility of difficult CEB. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the pDCEB model involving the aforementioned factors was 0.889 (95% CI, 0.827-0.952) in the development cohort and 0.862 (95% CI, 0.747-0.977) in the validation cohort. For patients with a pDCEB score ≥ 3, pre-procedure ultrasound scan could reduce the incidence of difficult CEB. Conclusion: This novel pDCEB score, which takes into account palpation of the sacral hiatus/cornua, number of the sacral hiatus by palpation ≥ 1, and history of difficult CEB, showed a good predictive ability of difficult CEB. The findings suggested that performing an ultrasound scan is essential for patients with a pDCEB score ≥ 3. 4 Trial registration: No: ChiCTR1800018871, Site url: https://www.chictr.org.cn/edit.aspx?pid=31875&htm=4

scholarly journals Evaluation of factors that predict the success rate of trial of labor after the cesarean section

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yang Mi ◽  
Pengfei Qu ◽  
Na Guo ◽  
Ruimiao Bai ◽  
Jiayi Gao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Cesarean Section ◽  
Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve ◽  
Success Rate ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Predictive Ability ◽  
Training Set ◽  
History Of ◽  
Operating Characteristic Curve

Abstract Background For most women who have had a previous cesarean section, vaginal birth after cesarean section (VBAC) is a reasonable and safe choice, but which will increase the risk of adverse outcomes such as uterine rupture. In order to reduce the risk, we evaluated the factors that may affect VBAC and and established a model for predicting the success rate of trial of the labor after cesarean section (TOLAC). Methods All patients who gave birth at Northwest Women’s and Children’s Hospital from January 2016 to December 2018, had a history of cesarean section and voluntarily chose the TOLAC were recruited. Among them, 80% of the population was randomly assigned to the training set, while the remaining 20% were assigned to the external validation set. In the training set, univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were used to identify indicators related to successful TOLAC. A nomogram was constructed based on the results of multiple logistic regression analysis, and the selected variables included in the nomogram were used to predict the probability of successfully obtaining TOLAC. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was used to judge the predictive ability of the model. Results A total of 778 pregnant women were included in this study. Among them, 595 (76.48%) successfully underwent TOLAC, whereas 183 (23.52%) failed and switched to cesarean section. In multi-factor logistic regression, parity = 1, pre-pregnancy BMI < 24 kg/m2, cervical score ≥ 5, a history of previous vaginal delivery and neonatal birthweight < 3300 g were associated with the success of TOLAC. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve in the prediction and validation models was 0.815 (95% CI: 0.762–0.854) and 0.730 (95% CI: 0.652–0.808), respectively, indicating that the nomogram prediction model had medium discriminative power. Conclusion The TOLAC was useful to reducing the cesarean section rate. Being primiparous, not overweight or obese, having a cervical score ≥ 5, a history of previous vaginal delivery or neonatal birthweight < 3300 g were protective indicators. In this study, the validated model had an approving predictive ability.

scholarly journals Intubated COVID-19 predictive (ICOP) score for early mortality after intubation in patients with COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mitsuaki Nishikimi ◽  
Rehana Rasul ◽  
Cristina P. Sison ◽  
Daniel Jafari ◽  
Muhammad Shoaib ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Early Mortality ◽  
Predictive Score ◽  
Derivation Cohort ◽  
Risk Of Mortality ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Failure Assessment ◽  
History Of

AbstractPatients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) can have increased risk of mortality shortly after intubation. The aim of this study is to develop a model using predictors of early mortality after intubation from COVID-19. A retrospective study of 1945 intubated patients with COVID-19 admitted to 12 Northwell hospitals in the greater New York City area was performed. Logistic regression model using backward selection was applied. This study evaluated predictors of 14-day mortality after intubation for COVID-19 patients. The predictors of mortality within 14 days after intubation included older age, history of chronic kidney disease, lower mean arterial pressure or increased dose of required vasopressors, higher urea nitrogen level, higher ferritin, higher oxygen index, and abnormal pH levels. We developed and externally validated an intubated COVID-19 predictive score (ICOP). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.75 (95% CI 0.73–0.78) in the derivation cohort and 0.71 (95% CI 0.67–0.75) in the validation cohort; both were significantly greater than corresponding values for sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) or CURB-65 scores. The externally validated predictive score may help clinicians estimate early mortality risk after intubation and provide guidance for deciding the most effective patient therapies.

scholarly journals OC112: The natural history of monochorionic twins and the role of prenatal ultrasound scan

2007 ◽  
Vol 30 (4) ◽  
pp. 401-402 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Lewi ◽  
J. Jani ◽  
A. S. Boes ◽  
E. Donne ◽  
T. Van Mieghem ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Natural History ◽  
Prenatal Ultrasound ◽  
Ultrasound Scan ◽  
Monochorionic Twins ◽  
History Of

scholarly journals Role of CHA2DS2-VASc score in predicting new-onset atrial fibrillation in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus with and without hyperosmolar hyperglycaemic state: real-world data from a nationwide cohort

BMJ Open ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. e020065 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei-Syun Hu ◽  
Cheng-Li Lin
Keyword(s):  
Diabetes Mellitus ◽  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Type 2 Diabetes ◽  
Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus ◽  
Predictive Ability ◽  
Type 2 Dm ◽  
History Of ◽  
New Onset

PurposeThe objective of the current study was to explore the role of CHA2DS2-VASc score in predicting incidence of atrial fibrillation (AF) in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM). Furthermore, the use of the CHA2DS2-VASc score for stratifying new-onset AF risk in patients with DM and with/without hyperosmolar hyperglycaemic state (HHS) was also compared.MethodsThe study subjects were identified from Longitudinal Health Insurance Database provided by the National Health Research Institutes. The patients with DM were divided into two groups based on a history of HHS or not. The predictive ability of CHA2DS2-VASc score for stratifying new-onset AF risk in the two groups was calculated using the area under the curve of receiver-operating characteristic (AUROC).ResultsThe present study involved a total of 69 530 patients with type 2 DM. Among them, 1558 patients had a history of HHS, whereas 67 972 patients did not. The AUROC of the CHA2DS2-VASc score as a predictor of incident AF in patients with DM and with/without HHS was 0.67 (95% CI 0.59 to 0.75) and 0.71 (95% CI 0.70 to 0.72), respectively.ConclusionsTo conclude, we reported for the first time on the assessment of CHA2DS2-VASc score for incident AF risk discrimination in patients with type 2 DM. We further found that the predictive ability of the CHA2DS2-VASc score was attenuated in patients with type 2 DM and with HHS in comparison with those without HHS.

scholarly journals Development and validation of a predictive score for ICU delirium in critically ill patients

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Huijuan Zhang ◽  
Jing Yuan ◽  
Qun Chen ◽  
Yingya Cao ◽  
Zhen Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Validation Cohort ◽  
Multivariate Logistic Regression Analysis ◽  
Predictive Score ◽  
Clinical Indicators ◽  
Derivation Cohort ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
History Of ◽  
Icu Delirium ◽  
Risk Predictors ◽  
Development And Validation

Abstract Background The incidence of delirium in intensive care unit (ICU) patients is high and associated with a poor prognosis. We validated the risk factors of delirium to identify relevant early and predictive clinical indicators and developed an optimized model. Methods In the derivation cohort, 223 patients were assigned to two groups (with or without delirium) based on the CAM-ICU results. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was conducted to identify independent risk predictors, and the accuracy of the predictors was then validated in a prospective cohort of 81 patients. Results A total of 304 patients were included: 223 in the derivation group and 81 in the validation group, 64(21.1%)developed delirium. The model consisted of six predictors assessed at ICU admission: history of hypertension (RR = 4.367; P = 0.020), hypoxaemia (RR = 3.382; P = 0.018), use of benzodiazepines (RR = 5.503; P = 0.013), deep sedation (RR = 3.339; P = 0.048), sepsis (RR = 3.480; P = 0.018) and mechanical ventilation (RR = 3.547; P = 0.037). The mathematical model predicted ICU delirium with an accuracy of 0.862 (P < 0.001) in the derivation cohort and 0.739 (P < 0.001) in the validation cohort. No significant difference was found between the predicted and observed cases of ICU delirium in the validation cohort (P > 0.05). Conclusions Patients’ risk of delirium can be predicted at admission using the early prediction score, allowing the implementation of early preventive interventions aimed to reduce the incidence and severity of ICU delirium.

Serum Cardiac Biomarkers in Asymptomatic Hemodialysis Patients: Role of Soluble Suppression of Tumorigenicity-2

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Nicoletta Mancianti ◽  
Barbara Maresca ◽  
Marco Palladino ◽  
Gerardo Salerno ◽  
Patrizia Cardelli ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Troponin I ◽  
Predictive Ability ◽  
Small Variation ◽  
Left Ventricular ◽  
Cardiac Biomarkers ◽  
Normal Range ◽  
Coronary Syndrome ◽  
Before And After ◽  
History Of

<b><i>Introduction:</i></b> Cardiovascular events (CVE) remain the leading cause of mortality in hemodialysis (HD) patients. The ability to assess the risk of short-term CVE is of great importance. Soluble suppression of tumorogenicity-2 (sST2) is a novel biomarker that better stratifies risk of CVE than troponins in patients with heart failure. Few studies have investigated the role of sST2 in the HD population. The aim of this single-center study was to assess the predictive ability of sST2 on CVE in comparison to high-sensitive cardiac troponin I (hs-cTnI) and B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) in HD patients. <b><i>Methods:</i></b> This study used a prospective, observational cohort design. We enrolled 40 chronic HD patients asymptomatic for chest pain and without recent history of acute coronary syndrome. We tested sST2 pre-/post-HD, hs-cTnI, and BNP. Demographic/dialytic/echocardiographic data were evaluated. We recorded the number of CVE for 12 months. The patients were classified into 2 groups: those who developed CVE and those who did not. <b><i>Results:</i></b> Ten of the 40 patients (25%) developed CVE during a 12-month follow-up. Increased sST2 levels (<i>p</i> &#x3c; 0.0001) as well as hs-cTnI and BNP are predictive of CVE. When analyzing biomarkers as binary variables for values above or below the normal range, the correlation remained significant only for sST2 (<i>p</i> = 0.001). A small variation in sST2 levels before and after HD sessions was found (−2.1 ng/mL). sST2 was correlated with left ventricular (LV) echocardiographic data: LV mass index (<i>p</i> = 0.0001), LV ejection fraction (<i>p</i> = 0.01), and diastolic bulging of septum (<i>p</i> = 0.015). BNP and sST2 combination increased the prediction of CVE in a statistical model. <b><i>Conclusion:</i></b> Our study confirms that sST2 is useful for stratifying CV risk in the HD population. sST2 can be evaluated simply as a dichotomous value higher or lower than the normal range, making it easily interpretable. Dialysis and residual diuresis did not affect significantly sST2. A multimarker approach that incorporates sST2 and BNP may improve the prediction of CVE.

scholarly journals Development and Validation of Predictive Assessment of Complicated Diverticulitis Score

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 80
Author(s):  
Marcello Covino ◽  
Valerio Papa ◽  
Antonio Tursi ◽  
Benedetta Simeoni ◽  
Loris Riccardo Lopetuso ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Acute Diverticulitis ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
External Validation ◽  
Predictive Score ◽  
Clinical Tool ◽  
Reactive Protein ◽  
Prospective Cohorts ◽  
Predictive Assessment ◽  
Clinical Records ◽  
Development And Validation

The prevalence of acute diverticulitis (AD) has progressively increased in recent decades, with correspondingly greater morbidity and mortality. The aim of the study is to develop a predictive score to identify patients with the highest risk of complicated AD. The clinical records of 1089 patients referred to the emergency department (ED) over a five-year period were reviewed. In multivariate analysis, male sex (p < 0.001), constipation (p = 0.002), hemoglobin < 11.9 g/dL (p < 0.001), C reactive protein > 80 mg/L (p < 0.001), severe obesity (p = 0.049), and no proton pump inhibitor treatment (p = 0.003) were independently associated with complicated AD. The predictive assessment of complicated (PACO)-diverticulitis (D) score, including these six variables, was applied to the retrospective cohort and then validated prospectively in a cohort including 282 patients. It categorized patients into three risk classes for complicated AD. The PACO-D score showed fair discrimination for complicated AD with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.674 and 0.648, in the retrospective and prospective cohorts, respectively. The PACO-D score could be a practical clinical tool to identify patients at highest risk for complicated AD referred to the ED so that appropriate diagnostic and therapeutic resources could be appropriately allocated. Further external validation is needed to confirm these results.

Elaborating the role of reflection and individual differences in the study of folk-economic beliefs

2018 ◽  
Vol 41 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin Arceneaux
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Individual Differences ◽  
Cognitive Processes ◽  
Evolutionary History ◽  
Behavioral Responses ◽  
History Of ◽  
Economic Beliefs

AbstractIntuitions guide decision-making, and looking to the evolutionary history of humans illuminates why some behavioral responses are more intuitive than others. Yet a place remains for cognitive processes to second-guess intuitive responses – that is, to be reflective – and individual differences abound in automatic, intuitive processing as well.

The role of a family history of adenocarcinomas in patients with Barrett oesophagus

2001 ◽  
Vol 120 (5) ◽  
pp. A442-A442
Author(s):  
P TSIBOURIS ◽  
M HENDRICKSE ◽  
P ISAACS
Keyword(s):  
Family History ◽  
History Of ◽  
Barrett Oesophagus

Protective Factors and Suicidality in Members of Arab Kindred

Crisis ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 33 (2) ◽  
pp. 80-86 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sami Hamdan ◽  
Nadine Melhem ◽  
Israel Orbach ◽  
Ilana Farbstein ◽  
Mohammad El-Haib ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Protective Factors ◽  
Suicidal Behavior ◽  
Composite International Diagnostic Interview ◽  
Diagnostic Interview ◽  
Suicidal Risk ◽  
Arab Population ◽  
Psychiatric Interview ◽  
History Of

Background: Relatively little is known about the role of protective factors in an Arab population in the presence of suicidal risk factors. Aims: To examine the role of protective factors in a subsample of in large Arab Kindred participants in the presence of suicidal risk factors. Methods: We assessed protective and risk factors in a sample of 64 participants (16 suicidal and 48 nonsuicidal) between 15 and 55 years of age, using a comprehensive structured psychiatric interview, the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI), self-reported depression, anxiety, hopelessness, impulsivity, hostility, and suicidal behavior in first-degree and second-relatives. We also used the Religiosity Questionnaire and suicide attitude (SUIATT) and multidimensional perceived support scale. Results: Suicidal as opposed to nonsuicidal participants were more likely to have a lifetime history of major depressive disorder (MDD) (68.8% vs. 22.9% χ2 = 11.17, p = .001), an anxiety disorder (87.5% vs. 22.9, χ2 = 21.02, p < .001), or posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) (25% vs. 0.0%, Fisher’s, p = .003). Individuals who are otherwise at high risk for suicidality have a much lower risk when they experience higher perceived social support (3.31 ± 1.36 vs. 4.96 ± 1.40, t = 4.10, df = 62, p < .001), and they have the view that suicide is somehow unacceptable (1.83 ± .10 vs. 1.89 ± .07, t = 2.76, df = 60, p = .008). Conclusions: Taken together with other studies, these data suggest that the augmentation of protective factors could play a very important role in the prevention of incidental and recurrent suicidal behavior in Arab populations, where suicidal behavior in increasing rapidly.

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