scholarly journals Mortality Rate and Case Fatality Rate of COVID-19 Around The World: An Adjusted Estimation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Moslem Taheri Soodejani ◽  
Ali Akbar Haghdoost ◽  
Mohammad Hassan Lotfi ◽  
Marzieh Mahmudimanesh ◽  
Seyyed Mohammad Tabatabaei
Keyword(s):  
Diabetes Mellitus ◽  
Health Status ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Total Expenditure ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
The World ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Prevalence Of Diabetes Mellitus

Abstract Background: The present study is designed to predict the global adjusted values for mortality rate and case fatality rate of COVID-19 around the world. Methods: This research was conducted at the ecological level using data from 100 countries which were chosen randomly. The adjusted values were predicted using beta regression considering predictive factors such as total expenditure on health per capita, expenditure on health as a percentage of GDP, life expectancy and the percentage of the population aged over 65 years, hospital beds (per 1000 population), physicians (per 1000 population), nurses (per 1000 population), prevalence of smoking, prevalence of diabetes mellitus, and number of confirmed tests in each country. In the end, applying Monte Carlo simulation, the adjusted values of mortality rate and case fatality rate for the whole world were estimated.Results: The results of this study showed that two factors including percentage of population ages 65 and above (P=0.03) and Total expenditure on health as % of GDP (P = 0.04) had a statistically significant relationship with the case fatality rate. Moreover, there was a statistically significant relationship between the mortality rate and life expectancy (P = 0.02), total expenditure on health per capita (P < 0.001), nurses (Per 1000 Population) (P=0.04), and the prevalence of Diabetes Mellitus (P=0.04). The mortality rate and case fatality rate for the whole world were estimated to be 0.000001 and 0.026, respectively.Conclusion: It seems that what can cause global concern is not the case fatality rate of the disease, but its mortality rate, which is directly related to the health status of a community. The worse the health status of a community, the greater the number of infected people likely to be there, that ultimately increases the mortality rate of the disease in the community.

scholarly journals Global Pandemic Trends of COVID-19 in 2020

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hai-Zhen Chen ◽  
Bo Cai ◽  
Jian-Guo Chen
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
United States ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Incidence Rate ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
The United States ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
The World

Abstract Background: The novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) has been global threaten to public health. This paper provides perspective to the decision-making for public health control of the pandemic or the spread of epidemic.Methods: According to the WHO global reported database, we developed and used the number of cumulative cases, and the number of cumulative deaths to calculate and analyze rates of incidence, mortality, and fatality by country, with respect to the 30 highest outbreak (Top 30) countries.Results： As of December 31, 2020, of the global population of 7.585 billion, the cumulative number of reported cases was 81,475,053, and the cumulative number of deaths was 1,798,050. The incidence rate of COVID-19 was 1074.13 per 100,000 population, the mortality rate was 23.70 per 100,000, and the case fatality rate was 2.21%. Among the Top 30 countries, the five countries with the highest number of reported cumulative cases were, in rank, the United States (19,346,790 cases), India (10,266,674), Brazil (7,563,551), Russia (3,159,297) and France (2,556,708), and the five countries with the highest number of cumulative deaths were the United States (335,789 cases), Brazil (192,681), India (148,738), Mexico (123,845) and Italy (73,604). Globally, the countries with the highest incidence rate were, in rank, Andorra, Luxembourg, Montenegro, San Marino, and Czechia; the countries with the highest mortality rate were, in rank, San Marino, Belgium, Slovenia, Italy, and North Macedonia. The highest fatality rate was found in Yemen, Mexico, Montserrat, Isle of Man, and Ecuador, respectively. In China, 96,673 cases of COVID-19 and 4788 deaths were reported in 2020, ranking the 78th and the 43rd, respectively, in the world. The incidence rate and mortality rate were 6.90/105 and 0.34/105, respectively, ranking 207th and 188th in the world. The case fatality rate was 4.95%, ranking 11th in the world.Conclusions： The COVID-19 prevalence is still on the rise, and the turning points of incidence and mortality are not yet forecasted. Personal protection, anti-epidemic measures and efforts from public health personnel, medical professionals, biotechnology R&D personnel, effectiveness of the vaccination programs and the governments, are the important factors to determine the future prevalence of this coronavirus disease.

scholarly journals Early trends of socio-economic and health indicators influencing case fatality rate of COVID-19 pandemic

2020 ◽  
Vol 90 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shahir Asfahan ◽  
Aneesa Shahul ◽  
Gopal Chawla ◽  
Naveen Dutt ◽  
Ram Niwas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Health Indicators ◽  
World Health ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Medical Doctors ◽  
Selection Of Variables ◽  
The World ◽  
Per Capita

Coronavirus disease 2019, i.e. COVID-19, started as an outbreak in a district of China and has engulfed the world in a matter of 3 months. It is posing a serious health and economic challenge worldwide. However, case fatality rates (CFRs) have varied amongst various countries ranging from 0 to 8.91%. We have evaluated the effect of selected socio-economic and health indicators to explain this variation in CFR. Countries reporting a minimum of 50 cases as on 14th March 2020, were selected for this analysis. Data about the socio-economic indicators of each country was accessed from the World bank database and data about the health indicators were accessed from the World Health Organisation (WHO) database. Various socioeconomic indicators and health indicators were selected for this analysis. After selecting from univariate analysis, the indicators with the maximum correlation were used to build a model using multiple variable linear regression with a forward selection of variables and using adjusted R-squared score as the metric. We found univariate regression results were significant for GDP (Gross Domestic Product) per capita, POD 30/70 (Probability Of Dying Between Age 30 And Exact Age 70 From Any of Cardiovascular Disease, Cancer, Diabetes or Chronic Respiratory Disease), HCI (Human Capital Index), GNI(Gross National Income) per capita, life expectancy, medical doctors per 10000 population, as these parameters negatively corelated with CFR (rho = -0.48 to -0.38 , p<0.05). Case fatality rate was regressed using ordinary least squares (OLS) against the socio-economic and health indicators. The indicators in the final model were GDP per capita, POD 30/70, HCI, life expectancy, medical doctors per 10,000, median age, current health expenditure per capita, number of confirmed cases and population in millions. The adjusted R-squared score was 0.306. Developing countries with a poor economy are especially vulnerable in terms of COVID-19 mortality and underscore the need to have a global policy to deal with this on-going pandemic. These trends largely confirm that the toll from COVID-19 will be worse in countries ill-equipped to deal with it. These analyses of epidemiological data are need of time as apart from increasing situational awareness, it guides us in taking informed interventions and helps policy-making to tackle this pandemic.

Impact of hydroxychloroquin/azithromycin protocol on COVID-19 case-fatality rate reduction in Algeria. (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmed Youssef Kada
Keyword(s):  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Doubling Time ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
World Health ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Therapeutic Protocol ◽  
First Case ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact ◽  
At Home

BACKGROUND Covid-19 is an emerging infectious disease like viral zoonosis caused by new coronavirus SARS CoV 2. On December 31, 2019, Wuhan Municipal Health Commission in Hubei province (China) reported cases of pneumonia, the origin of which is a new coronavirus. Rapidly extendable around the world, the World Health Organization (WHO) declares it pandemic on March 11, 2020. This pandemic reaches Algeria on February 25, 2020, date on which the Algerian minister of health, announced the first case of Covid-19, a foreign citizen. From March 1, a cluster is formed in Blida and becomes the epicentre of the coronavirus epidemic in Algeria, its total quarantine is established on March 24, 2020, it will be smoothly alleviated on April 24. A therapeutic protocol based on hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin was put in place on March 23, for complicated cases, it was extended to all the cases confirmed on April 06. OBJECTIVE This study aimed to demonstrate the effectiveness of hydroxychloroquin/azithromycin protocol in Algeria, in particular after its extension to all patients diagnosed COVID-19 positive on RT-PCR test. We were able to illustrate this fact graphically, but not to prove it statistically because the design of our study, indeed in the 7 days which followed generalization of therapeutic protocol, case fatality rate decrease and doubling time increase, thus confirming the impact of wide and early prescription of hydroxychloroquin/azithromycin protocol. METHODS We have analyzed the data collected from press releases and follow-ups published daily by the Ministry of Health, we have studied the possible correlations of these data with certain events or decisions having a possible impact on their development, such as confinement at home and its reduction, the prescription of hydroxychloroquine/azithromycin combination for serious patients and its extension to all positive COVID subjects. Results are presented in graphics, the data collection was closed on 31/05/2020. RESULTS Covid-19 pandemic spreads from February 25, 2020, when a foreign citizen is tested positive, on March 1 a cluster is formed in the city of Blida where sixteen members of the same family are infected during a wedding party. Wilaya of Blida becomes the epicentre of coronavirus epidemic in Algeria and lockdown measures taken, while the number of national cases diagnosed begins to increases In any event, the association of early containment measures combined with a generalized initial treatment for all positive cases, whatever their degree of severity, will have contributed to a reduction in the fatality rate of COVID 19 and a slowing down of its doubling time. CONCLUSIONS In Algeria, the rapid combination of rigorous containment measure at home and early generalized treatment with hydroxychloroquin have demonstrated their effectiveness in terms of morbidity and mortality, the classic measures of social distancing and hygiene will make it possible to perpetuate these results by reducing viral transmission, the only unknown, the reopening procedure which can only be started after being surrounded by precautions aimed at ensuring the understanding of the population. CLINICALTRIAL Algeria, Covid-19, pandemic, hydroxychloroquin, azithromycin, case fatality rate

scholarly journals 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) pneumonia: an unusual lung ultrasound presentation.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Letizia Consoli ◽  
Vittorio Bendotti ◽  
Sara Cicchinelli ◽  
Federico Gaioni ◽  
Paola Prandolini ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Lung Ultrasound ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Ground Glass Opacity ◽  
Public Health Emergency ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Chest Computed Tomography ◽  
Ultrasound Findings ◽  
The World ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Abstract In December 2019, a novel coronavirus (SARS-Cov-2) was first reported in Wuhan, China, and rapidly spread around the world, leading to an international emerging public health emergency. As reported from Chinese experiences, approximately 20% of patients had a severe course, requiring intensive care, with an overall case fatality rate of 2.3%. In diagnosis, chest computed tomography most commonly showed ground-glass opacity with or without consolidative patterns.Herein we report a case of a patient affected by COVID-19 pneumonia referred in the emergency department of our institution on 4 April 2020 with peculiar lung ultrasound findings.

scholarly journals Risk factors for incidence and case-fatality rates of healthcare-associated infections: a 20-year follow-up of a hospital-based cohort

2015 ◽  
Vol 144 (1) ◽  
pp. 198-206 ◽  
Author(s):  
R.-F. WANG ◽  
S.-H. SHEN ◽  
A. M.-F. YEN ◽  
T.-L. WANG ◽  
T.-N. JANG ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Incidence Rate ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Tertiary Care ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Healthcare Associated Infections ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Infection Site ◽  
Healthcare Associated

SUMMARYInformation is lacking on the integrated evaluation of mortality rates in healthcare-associated infections (HAIs). Our aim was to differentiate the risk factors responsible for the incidence from those for the case-fatality rates in association with HAIs. We therefore examined the time trends of both incidence and case-fatality rates over a 20-year period at a tertiary-care teaching medical centre in Taiwan and the mortality rate was expressed as the product of the incidence rate and the case-fatality rate. During the study period the overall mortality rate fell from 0·46 to 0·32 deaths/1000 patient-days and the incidence rate fell from 3·41 to 2·31/1000 patient-days, but the case-fatality rate increased marginally from 13·5% to 14·0%. The independent risk factors associated with incidence of HAIs were age, gender, infection site, admission type, and department of hospitalization. Significant prognostic factors for HAI case-fatality were age, infection site, intensive care, and clinical department. We conclude that the decreasing trend for the HAI mortality rate was accompanied by a significant decline in the incidence rate and this was offset by a slightly increasing trend in the case-fatality rate. This deconstruction approach could provide further insights into the underlying complex causes of mortality for HAIs.

scholarly journals Python Programming in PyPI for Translational Medicine

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 323-331
Author(s):  
Yoshiyasu Takefuji
Keyword(s):  
Translational Medicine ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Lag Time ◽  
The Internet ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Target Values ◽  
The World ◽  
Python Programming ◽  
Python Package

This is the world’s first tutorial article on Python Packaging for beginners and practitioners for translational medicine or medicine in general. This tutorial will allow researchers to demonstrate and showcase their tools on PyPI packages around the world. Nowadays, for translational medicine, researchers need to deal with big data. This paper describes how to build an executable Python Package Index (PyPI) code and package. PyPI is a repository of software for the Python programming language with 5,019,737 files and 544,359 users (programmers) as of 19 October 2021. First, programmers must understand how to scrape a dataset over the Internet; second, they must read the dataset file in csv format; third, build a program to compute the target values; fourth, convert the Python program to the PyPI package.; and fifth, upload the PyPI package. This paper depicts a covidlag executable package as an example for calculating the accurate case fatality rate (CFR) and the lag time from infection to death. You can install the covidlag by pip terminal command and test it. This paper also introduces deathdaily and scorecovid packages on PyPI Stats, which can inform how many users have downloaded the specified PyPI package. The usefulness and applicability of a developed tool can be verified by PyPI Stats with the number of downloaded users.

scholarly journals Urban Air Pollution May Enhance COVID-19 Case-Fatality and Mortality Rates in the United States

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Donghai Liang ◽  
Liuhua Shi ◽  
Jingxuan Zhao ◽  
Pengfei Liu ◽  
Joel Schwartz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Urban Air Pollution ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Ambient Air ◽  
County Level ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
P Values

AbstractBackgroundThe novel human coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has claimed more than 240,000 lives worldwide, causing tremendous public health, social, and economic damages. While the risk factors of COVID-19 are still under investigation, environmental factors, such as urban air pollution, may play an important role in increasing population susceptibility to COVID-19 pathogenesis.MethodsWe conducted a cross-sectional nationwide study using zero-inflated negative binomial models to estimate the association between long-term (2010-2016) county-level exposures to NO2, PM2.5 and O3 and county-level COVID-19 case-fatality and mortality rates in the US. We used both single and multipollutant models and controlled for spatial trends and a comprehensive set of potential confounders, including state-level test positive rate, county-level healthcare capacity, phase-of-epidemic, population mobility, sociodemographic, socioeconomic status, behavior risk factors, and meteorological factors.Results1,027,799 COVID-19 cases and 58,489 deaths were reported in 3,122 US counties from January 22, 2020 to April 29, 2020, with an overall observed case-fatality rate of 5.8%. Spatial variations were observed for both COVID-19 death outcomes and long-term ambient air pollutant levels. County-level average NO2 concentrations were positively associated with both COVID-19 case-fatality rate and mortality rate in single-, bi-, and tri-pollutant models (p-values<0.05). Per inter-quartile range (IQR) increase in NO2 (4.6 ppb), COVID-19 case-fatality rate and mortality rate were associated with an increase of 7.1% (95% CI 1.2% to 13.4%) and 11.2% (95% CI 3.4% to 19.5%), respectively. We did not observe significant associations between long-term exposures to PM2.5 or O3 and COVID-19 death outcomes (p-values>0.05), although per IQR increase in PM2.5 (3.4 ug/m3) was marginally associated with 10.8% (95% CI: −1.1% to 24.1%) increase in COVID-19 mortality rate.Discussions and ConclusionsLong-term exposure to NO2, which largely arises from urban combustion sources such as traffic, may enhance susceptibility to severe COVID-19 outcomes, independent of longterm PM2.5 and O3 exposure. The results support targeted public health actions to protect residents from COVID-19 in heavily polluted regions with historically high NO2 levels. Moreover, continuation of current efforts to lower traffic emissions and ambient air pollution levels may be an important component of reducing population-level risk of COVID-19 deaths.

scholarly journals Economic development and road traffic injuries and fatalities in Thailand: an application of spatial panel data analysis, 2012–2016

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rapeepong Suphanchaimat ◽  
Vorasith Sornsrivichai ◽  
Supon Limwattananon ◽  
Panithee Thammawijaya
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Road Traffic ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Incidence Proportion ◽  
Per Capita

Abstract Background Road traffic injuries (RTIs) have been one of the most critical public health problems in Thailand for decades. The objective of this study was to examine to what extent provincial economy was associated with RTIs, road traffic deaths and case fatality rate in Thailand. Methods A secondary data analysis on time-series data was applied. The unit of analysis was a panel of 77 provinces during 2012–2016. Data were obtained from relevant public authorities, including the Ministry of Public Health. Descriptive statistics and econometric models, using negative binomial (NB) regression, negative binomial regression with random-effects (RE) model, and spatial Durbin model (SDM) were employed. The main predictor variable was gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and the outcome variables were incidence proportion of RTIs, traffic deaths and case fatality rate. The analysis was adjusted for key covariates. Results The incidence proportion of RTIs rose from 449.0 to 524.9 cases per 100,000 population from 2012 till 2016, whereas the incidence of traffic fatalities fluctuated between 29.7 and 33.2 deaths per 100,000 population. Case fatality rate steadily stood at 0.06–0.07 deaths per victim. RTIs and traffic deaths appeared to be positively correlated with provincial economy in the NB regression and the RE model. In the SDM, a log-Baht increase in GDP per capita (equivalent to a growth of GDP per capita by about 2.7 times) enlarged the incidence proportion of injuries and deaths by about a quarter (23.8–30.7%) with statistical significance. No statistical significance was found in case fatality rate by the SDM. The SDM also presented the best model fitness relative to other models. Conclusion The incidence proportion of traffic injuries and deaths appeared to rise alongside provincial prosperity. This means that RTIs-preventive measures should be more intensified in economically well-off areas. Furthermore, entrepreneurs and business sectors that gain economic benefit in a particular province should share responsibility in RTIs prevention in the area where their businesses are running. Further studies that explore others determinants of road safety, such as patterns of vehicles used, attitudes and knowledge of motorists, investment in safety measures, and compliance with traffic laws, are recommended.

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