Prediction of biological age and all-cause mortality by 12-lead electrocardiogram in patients without structural heart disease

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Naomi Hirota ◽  
Shinya Suzuki ◽  
Takuto Arita ◽  
Naoharu Yagi ◽  
Takayuki Otsuka ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Principal Component Analysis ◽  
Heart Disease ◽  
Ventricular Tachyarrhythmia ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Structural Heart Disease ◽  
Biological Age ◽  
Chronological Age ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
All Cause Mortality ◽  
Electrocardiogram Ecg

Abstract Background: The 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) is affected by not only the cardiovascular but also the non-cardiovascular status. Whether ECG can be the determinant of biological age (BA) and the gap between chronological age (CA) and ECG-predicted BA reflect differences in prognosis are unclear. Methods: In the Shinken Database 2010 – 2017 (n = 19170), 12-lead ECG was analyzed in 13005 patients excluding those with structural heart disease or having pacing beats, atrial or ventricular tachyarrhythmia, and indeterminate axis (R axis > 180˚) on index ECG. The prediction model of BA was developed by principal component analysis with 438 ECG parameters. The gap between ECG-predicted BA and CA was calculated (AgeDiff = ECG-predicted BA − CA). Results: The ECG-predicted BA was significantly correlated with CA (r = 0.967). Patients with a positively wide AgeDiff had a higher incidence of all-cause mortality compared to those with a narrow AgeDiff or those with negative AgeDiff. The risk of AgeDiff > 0 for all-cause mortality compared with AgeDiff ≤ 0 was 1.78 (95%CI: 1.00 − 3.16), which increased according to the aging and became the highest in patients with CA of 71 − 80 years. Conclusion: Our data suggested that 12-lead ECG can be a tool to estimate BA. The gap between ECG-predicted BA and CA allowed estimation of increased risk of all-cause mortality in patients without structural heart disease.

scholarly journals Prediction of biological age and all-cause mortality by 12-lead electrocardiogram in patients without structural heart disease

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Naomi Hirota ◽  
Shinya Suzuki ◽  
Takuto Arita ◽  
Naoharu Yagi ◽  
Takayuki Otsuka ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heart Disease ◽  
Ventricular Tachyarrhythmia ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Structural Heart Disease ◽  
Cardiovascular Death ◽  
Biological Age ◽  
Predictive Capability ◽  
Characteristic Analysis ◽  
Specialized Hospital ◽  
Established Relationship

Abstract Background There is a well-established relationship between 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) and age and mortality. Furthermore, there is increasing evidence that ECG can be used to predict biological age. However, the utility of biological age from ECG for predicting mortality remains unclear. Methods This was a single-center cohort study from a cardiology specialized hospital. A total of 19,170 patients registered in this study from February 2010 to March 2018. ECG was analyzed in a final 12,837 patients after excluding those with structural heart disease or with pacing beats, atrial or ventricular tachyarrhythmia, or an indeterminate axis (R axis > 180°) on index ECG. The models for biological age were developed by principal component analysis (BA) and the Klemera and Doubal’s method (not adjusted for age [BAE] and adjusted for age [BAEC]) using 438 ECG parameters. The predictive capability for all-cause death and cardiovascular death by chronological age (CA) and biological age using the three algorithms were evaluated by receiver operating characteristic analysis. Results During the mean follow-up period of 320.4 days, there were 55 all-cause deaths and 23 cardiovascular deaths. The predictive capabilities for all-cause death by BA, BAE, and BAEC using area under the curves were 0.731, 0.657, and 0.685, respectively, which were comparable to 0.725 for CA (p = 0.760, 0.141, and 0.308, respectively). The predictive capabilities for cardiovascular death by BA, BAE, and BAEC were 0.682, 0.685, and 0.692, respectively, which were also comparable to 0.674 for CA (p = 0.775, 0.839, and 0.706, respectively). In patients aged 60–74 years old, the area under the curves for all-cause death by BA, BAE, and BAEC were 0.619, 0.702, and 0.697, respectively, which tended to be or were significantly higher than 0.482 for CA (p = 0.064, 0.006, and 0.005, respectively). Conclusion Biological age by 12-lead ECG showed a similar predictive capability for mortality compared to CA among total patients, but partially showed a significant increase in predictive capability among patients aged 60–74 years old.

scholarly journals Biological age in UK Biobank: biomarker composition and prediction of mortality, coronary heart disease and hospital admissions

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mei Sum Chan ◽  
Matthew Arnold ◽  
Alison Offer ◽  
Imen Hammami ◽  
Marion Mafham ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Coronary Heart Disease ◽  
Risk Factor ◽  
Heart Disease ◽  
Principal Components ◽  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Age Effects ◽  
Biological Age ◽  
Chronological Age ◽  
Uk Biobank

AbstractBackgroundAge is the strongest risk factor for most chronic diseases, and yet individuals may age at different rates biologically. A biological age formed from biomarkers may be a stronger risk factor than chronological age and understanding what factors contribute to it could provide insight into new opportunities for disease prevention.Methods and findingsAmong 480,019 UK Biobank participants aged 40-70 recruited in 2006-2010 and followed up for 6-12 years via linked death registry and secondary care records, a subpopulation of 141,254 (29.4%) non-smoking adults in good health and with no medication use or disease history at baseline were identified. Independent components of 72 biomarkers measured at baseline were characterised by principal component analysis. The Klemera Doubal method (KDM), which derived a weighted sum of biomarker principal components based on the strengths of their linear associations with chronological age, was used to derive sex-specific biological ages in this healthy subpopulation. The proportions of the overall biological and chronological age effects on mortality, coronary heart disease and age-related non-fatal hospital admissions (based on a hospital frailty index) that were explained by biological age were assessed using log-likelihoods of proportional hazards models.Reduced lung function, reduced kidney function, slower reaction time, lower insulin-like-growth factor 1, lower hand grip strength and higher blood pressure were key contributors to biological age (explaining the highest percentages of its variance) in both men and women, while lower albumin, higher sex hormone-binding globulin and lower muscle mass in men, and higher liver enzymes, blood lipids and HbA1c in women were also important. Across both sexes, a 51-principal component biological age explained 66%, 80% and 63% of the age effects on mortality, coronary heart disease and hospital admissions, respectively. Restricting the biological age to the 12-13 key biomarkers corresponding to the 10 most importantly contributing principal components resulted in little change in these proportions for women, but a reduction to 53%, 63% and 50%, respectively, for men.ConclusionsThis study identified that markers of impaired function in a range of organs account for a substantial proportion of the apparent effect of age on disease and hospital admissions. It supports a broader, multi-system approach to research and prevention of diseases of ageing.

scholarly journals Dietary patterns related to total mortality and cancer mortality in the United States

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcela R. Entwistle ◽  
Donald Schweizer ◽  
Ricardo Cisneros
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Dietary Patterns ◽  
Cancer Mortality ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Total Mortality ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
The United States ◽  
Red Meat ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
All Cause Mortality

Abstract Purpose This study investigated the association between dietary patterns, total mortality, and cancer mortality in the United States. Methods We identified the four major dietary patterns at baseline from 13,466 participants of the NHANES III cohort using principal component analysis (PCA). Dietary patterns were categorized into ‘prudent’ (fruits and vegetables), ‘western’ (red meat, sweets, pastries, oils), ‘traditional’ (red meat, legumes, potatoes, bread), and ‘fish and alcohol’. We estimated hazard ratios for total mortality, and cancer mortality using Cox regression models. Results A total of 4,963 deaths were documented after a mean follow-up of 19.59 years. Higher adherence to the ‘prudent’ pattern was associated with the lowest risk of total mortality (5th vs. 1st quintile HR 0.90, 95% CI 0.82–0.98), with evidence that all-cause mortality decreased as consumption of the pattern increased. No evidence was found that the ‘prudent’ pattern reduced cancer mortality. The ‘western’ and the ‘traditional’ patterns were associated with up to 22% and 16% increased risk for total mortality (5th vs. 1st quintile HR 1.22, 95% CI 1.11–1.34; and 5th vs. 1st quintile HR 1.16, 95% CI 1.06–1.27, respectively), and up to 33% and 15% increased risk for cancer mortality (5th vs. 1st quintile HR 1.33, 95% CI 1.10–1.62; and 5th vs. 1st quintile HR 1.15, 95% CI 1.06–1.24, respectively). The associations between adherence to the ‘fish and alcohol’ pattern and total mortality, and cancer mortality were not statistically significant. Conclusion Higher adherence to the ‘prudent’ diet decreased the risk of all-cause mortality but did not affect cancer mortality. Greater adherence to the ‘western’ and ‘traditional’ diet increased the risk of total mortality and mortality due to cancer.

scholarly journals Role of depressive symptoms in cardiometabolic diseases and subsequent transitions to all-cause mortality: an application of multistate models in a prospective cohort study

2021 ◽  
pp. svn-2020-000693
Author(s):  
Yanan Qiao ◽  
Siyuan Liu ◽  
Guochen Li ◽  
Yanqiang Lu ◽  
Ying Wu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heart Disease ◽  
Depressive Symptoms ◽  
Depression Scale ◽  
European Population ◽  
Multistate Models ◽  
Cardiometabolic Diseases ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
All Cause Mortality ◽  
Patients With Diabetes

Background and purposeThe role of depression in the development and outcome of cardiometabolic diseases remains to be clarified. We aimed to examine the extent to which depressive symptoms affect the transitions from healthy to diabetes, stroke, heart disease and subsequent all-cause mortality in a middle-aged and elderly European population.MethodsA total of 78 212 individuals aged ≥50 years from the Survey of Health Ageing and Retirement in Europe were included. Participants with any baseline cardiometabolic diseases including diabetes, stroke and heart disease were excluded. Depressive symptoms were measured by the Euro-Depression scale at baseline. Participants were followed up to determine the occurrence of cardiometabolic diseases and all-cause mortality. We used multistate models to estimate the transition-specific HRs and 95% CIs after adjustment of confounders.ResultsDuring 500 711 person-years of follow-up, 4742 participants developed diabetes, 2173 had stroke, 5487 developed heart disease and 7182 died. Depressive symptoms were significantly associated with transitions from healthy to diabetes (HR: 1.12, 95% CI: 1.05 to 1.20), stroke (HR: 1.31, 95% CI: 1.18 to 1.44), heart disease (HR: 1.26, 95% CI: 1.18 to 1.34) and all-cause mortality (HR: 1.41, 95% CI: 1.34 to 1.49). After cardiometabolic diseases, depressive symptoms were associated with the increased risk of all-cause mortality in patients with diabetes (HR: 1.54, 95% CI: 1.25 to 1.89), patients who had stroke (HR: 1.29, 95% CI: 1.03 to 1.61) and patients with heart disease (HR: 1.21, 95% CI: 1.02 to 1.44).ConclusionsDepressive symptoms increase the risk of diabetes, stroke and heart disease, and affect the risk of mortality after the onset of these cardiometabolic conditions. Screening and treatment of depressive symptoms may have profound implications for the prevention and prognosis of cardiometabolic diseases.

scholarly journals Increased Remnant Cholesterol Explains Part of Residual Risk of All-Cause Mortality in 5414 Patients with Ischemic Heart Disease

2016 ◽  
Vol 62 (4) ◽  
pp. 593-604 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anne-Marie K Jepsen ◽  
Anne Langsted ◽  
Anette Varbo ◽  
Lia E Bang ◽  
Pia R Kamstrup ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heart Disease ◽  
Ischemic Heart Disease ◽  
Ldl Cholesterol ◽  
Hdl Cholesterol ◽  
Hazard Ratio ◽  
Residual Risk ◽  
Ischemic Heart ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
All Cause Mortality ◽  
Remnant Cholesterol

Abstract BACKGROUND Increased concentrations of remnant cholesterol are causally associated with increased risk of ischemic heart disease. We tested the hypothesis that increased remnant cholesterol is a risk factor for all-cause mortality in patients with ischemic heart disease. METHODS We included 5414 Danish patients diagnosed with ischemic heart disease. Patients on statins were not excluded. Calculated remnant cholesterol was nonfasting total cholesterol minus LDL and HDL cholesterol. During 35836 person-years of follow-up, 1319 patients died. RESULTS We examined both calculated and directly measured remnant cholesterol; importantly, however, measured remnant cholesterol made up only 9% of calculated remnant cholesterol at nonfasting triglyceride concentrations <1 mmol/L (89 mg/dL) and only 43% at triglycerides >5 mmol/L (443 mg/dL). Multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios for all-cause mortality compared with patients with calculated remnant cholesterol concentrations in the 0 to 60th percentiles were 1.2 (95% CI, 1.1–1.4) for patients in the 61st to 80th percentiles, 1.3 (1.1–1.5) for the 81st to 90th percentiles, 1.5 (1.1–1.8) for the 91st to 95th percentiles, and 1.6 (1.2–2.0) for patients in the 96th to 100th percentiles (trend, P < 0.001). Corresponding values for measured remnant cholesterol were 1.0 (0.8–1.1), 1.2 (1.0–1.4), 1.1 (0.9–1.5), and 1.3 (1.1–1.7) (trend, P = 0.006), and for measured LDL cholesterol 1.0 (0.9–1.1), 1.0 (0.8–1.2), 1.0 (0.8–1.3), and 1.1 (0.8–1.4) (trend, P = 0.88). Cumulative survival was reduced in patients with calculated remnant cholesterol ≥1 mmol/L (39 mg/dL) vs <1 mmol/L [log-rank, P = 9 × 10−6; hazard ratio 1.3 (1.2–1.5)], but not in patients with measured LDL cholesterol ≥3 mmol/L (116 mg/dL) vs <3 mmol/L [P = 0.76; hazard ratio 1.0 (0.9–1.1)]. CONCLUSIONS Increased concentrations of both calculated and measured remnant cholesterol were associated with increased all-cause mortality in patients with ischemic heart disease, which was not the case for increased concentrations of measured LDL cholesterol. This suggests that increased concentrations of remnant cholesterol explain part of the residual risk of all-cause mortality in patients with ischemic heart disease.

The Heartbeat Classification Based on PCA

2012 ◽  
Vol 195-196 ◽  
pp. 402-406
Author(s):  
Xue Qin Chen ◽  
Rui Ping Wang
Keyword(s):  
Principal Component Analysis ◽  
Pattern Recognition ◽  
Recognition Task ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
True Positive Rate ◽  
True Positive ◽  
Heartbeat Classification ◽  
Positive Rate ◽  
Electrocardiogram Ecg ◽  
Pattern Recognition Task

Classify the electrocardiogram (ECG) into different pathophysiological categories is a complex pattern recognition task which has been tried in lots of methods. This paper will discuss a method of principal component analysis (PCA) in exacting the heartbeat features, and a new method of classification that is to calculate the error between the testing heartbeat and reconstructed heartbeat. Training and testing heartbeat is taken from the MIT-BIH Arrhythmia Database, in which 8 types of arrhythmia signals are selected in this paper. The true positive rate (TPR) is 83%.

scholarly journals Fragmented QRS Predicts Cardiovascular Death of Patients With Structural Heart Disease and Inducible Ventricular Tachyarrhythmia

2013 ◽  
Vol 77 (12) ◽  
pp. 2889-2897 ◽  
Author(s):  
Takekuni Hayashi ◽  
Seiji Fukamizu ◽  
Rintaro Hojo ◽  
Kota Komiyama ◽  
Yasuhiro Tanabe ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heart Disease ◽  
Ventricular Tachyarrhythmia ◽  
Structural Heart Disease ◽  
Cardiovascular Death ◽  
Fragmented Qrs

Abstract 031: Diastolic Blood Pressure, Coronary Artery Calcium, and Cardiac Outcomes in the Multi-ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

Hypertension ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 70 (suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
John W McEvoy ◽  
Faisal Rahman ◽  
Mahmoud Al Rifai ◽  
Michael Blaha ◽  
Khurram Nasir ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Blood Pressure ◽  
Coronary Heart Disease ◽  
Heart Disease ◽  
Coronary Artery ◽  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Diastolic Blood Pressure ◽  
Coronary Artery Calcium ◽  
J Curve ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
All Cause Mortality

Diastolic blood pressure (BP) has a J-curve relationship with coronary heart disease and death. Because this association is thought to reflect reduced coronary perfusion at low diastolic BP, our objective was to test whether the J-curve is most pronounced among persons with coronary artery calcium. Among 6,811 participants from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis, we used Cox models to examine if diastolic BP category is associated with coronary heart disease events, stroke, and mortality. Analyses were conducted in the sample overall and after stratification by coronary artery calcium score. In multivariable-adjusted analyses, compared with diastolic BP of 80 to 89 mmHg (reference), persons with diastolic BP <60 mmHg had increased risk of coronary heart disease events (HR 1.69 [95% confidence interval 1.02-2.79]) and all-cause mortality (HR 1.48 [95% confidence interval 1.10-2.00]), but not stroke. After stratification, associations of diastolic BP <60 mmHg with events were present only among participants with coronary artery calcium >0. Diastolic BP <60 mmHg was not associated with events when coronary artery calcium was zero. We also found no interaction in the association between low diastolic BP and events based on race. In conclusion, diastolic blood pressure <60 mmHg was associated with increased risk of coronary heart disease events and all-cause mortality in the sample overall, but this association appeared strongest among individuals with elevated CAC; suggesting that added caution may be needed when pursuing intensive BP treatment targets among persons with subclinical atherosclerosis.

Antithrombotic Therapy in Patients Undergoing Transcatheter Interventions for Structural Heart Disease

Circulation ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 144 (16) ◽  
pp. 1323-1343
Author(s):  
Paolo Calabrò ◽  
Felice Gragnano ◽  
Giampaolo Niccoli ◽  
Rossella Marcucci ◽  
Marco Zimarino ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heart Disease ◽  
Antithrombotic Therapy ◽  
Structural Heart Disease ◽  
Current Evidence ◽  
Bleeding Complications ◽  
Tricuspid Valve Repair ◽  
Left Atrial Appendage Occlusion ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Valve Implantation ◽  
Transcatheter Interventions

Contemporary evidence supports device-based transcatheter interventions for the management of patients with structural heart disease. These procedures, which include aortic valve implantation, mitral or tricuspid valve repair/implantation, left atrial appendage occlusion, and patent foramen ovale closure, profoundly differ with respect to clinical indications and procedural aspects. Yet, patients undergoing transcatheter cardiac interventions require antithrombotic therapy before, during, or after the procedure to prevent thromboembolic events. However, these therapies are associated with an increased risk of bleeding complications. To date, challenges and controversies exist regarding balancing the risk of thrombotic and bleeding complications in these patients such that the optimal antithrombotic regimens to adopt in each specific procedure is still unclear. In this review, we summarize current evidence on antithrombotic therapies for device-based transcatheter interventions targeting structural heart disease and emphasize the importance of a tailored approach in these patients.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document