scholarly journals Homogeneous and heterogeneous propagation of COVID-19 from super-spreading to super-isolation

Author(s):  
Jack Sutton ◽  
Golnaz Shahtahmassebi ◽  
Haroldo V. Ribeiro ◽  
Quentin S. Hanley

Abstract We investigated daily COVID-19 cases and death in the 337 lower tier local authority regions in England and Wales to better understand how the disease propagated over a 10-month period. Population density scaling models revealed residual variance and skewness to be sensitive indicators of the dynamics of propagation. Lockdowns and schools reopening triggered increased variance indicative of outbreaks with local impact and country scale heterogeneity. University reopening and December holidays triggered reduced variance indicative of country scale homogenisation which reached a minimum after New Year. Homogeneous propagation was associated with better correspondence with normally distributed residuals while heterogeneous propagation was more consistent with skewed models. Skewness varied from strongly negative to strongly positive revealing an unappreciated feature of community propagation. Hot spots and super-spreading events are well understood descriptors of regional disease dynamics that would be expected to be associated with positively skewed distributions. Positively skewed behaviour was observed; however, negative skewness indicative of “cold-spots” and “super-isolation” dominated for approximately 4 months during the period of study. In contrast, death metrics showed near constant behaviour in scaling, variance, and skewness metrics over the full period with rural regions preferentially affected, an observation consistent with regional age demographics in England and Wales.

Sociology ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 003803852110155
Author(s):  
Daniela Pirani ◽  
Vicki Harman ◽  
Benedetta Cappellini

Drawing on 34 semi-structured interviews, this study investigates the temporality of family practices taking place in the hot spot. It does so by looking at how breakfast is inserted in the economy of family time in Italy. Our data show that breakfast, contrary to other meals, allows the adoption of more individualised and asynchronous practices, hinged on the consumption of convenience products. These time-saving strategies are normalised as part of doing family. Although the existing literature suggests that convenience and care are in opposition, and consumers of convenience products can experience anxiety and a lack of personal integrity, such features were not a dominant feature of our participants’ accounts. These findings suggest that the dichotomies of hot/cold spots and care/convenience are not always experienced in opposition when embedded within family practices. Hence, this study furthers understandings of family meals, temporality and the distinction between hot and cold spots.


Cancers ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 1143
Author(s):  
Gustav Stålhammar ◽  
Hans E. Grossniklaus

Malignant tumors are rarely homogenous on the morphological, genome, transcriptome or proteome level. In this study, we investigate the intratumor heterogeneity of BAP-1 expression in uveal melanoma with digital image analysis of 40 tumors. The proportion of BAP-1 positive cells was measured in full tumor sections, hot spots, cold spots and in scleral margins. The mean difference between hot spots and cold spots was 41 percentage points (pp, SD 29). Tumors with gene expression class 1 (associated with low metastatic risk) and 2 (high metastatic risk) had similar intratumor heterogeneity. Similarly, the level of intratumor heterogeneity was comparable in tumors from patients that later developed metastases as in patients that did not. BAP-1 measured in any tumor region added significant prognostic information to both American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) tumor size category (p ≤ 0.001) and gene expression class (p ≤ 0.04). We conclude that there is substantial intratumor heterogeneity in uveal melanoma BAP-1 expression. However, it is of limited prognostic importance. Regardless of region, analysis of BAP-1 expression adds significant prognostic information beyond tumor size and gene expression class.


2009 ◽  
Vol 587 (7) ◽  
pp. 1439-1459 ◽  
Author(s):  
John S. Fitzpatrick ◽  
Anna M. Hagenston ◽  
Daniel N. Hertle ◽  
Keith E. Gipson ◽  
Lisa Bertetto-D'Angelo ◽  
...  

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (23) ◽  
pp. 9953
Author(s):  
Sally J. Medland ◽  
Richard R. Shaker ◽  
K. Wayne Forsythe ◽  
Brian R. Mackay ◽  
Greg Rybarczyk

Significant wetland loss (~72%; 1.4 million hectares) in the Province of Ontario, Canada, has resulted in damage to important ecosystem services that mitigate the effects of global change. In response, major agencies have set goals to halt this loss and work to restore wetlands to varying degrees of function and area. To aid those agencies, this study was guided by four research questions: (i) Which physical and ecological landscape criteria represent high suitability for wetland reconstruction? (ii) Of common wetland suitability metrics, which are most important? (iii) Can a multi-criteria wetland suitability index (WSI) effectively locate high and low wetland suitability across the Ontario Mixedwood Plains Ecozone? (iv) How do best sites from the WSI compare and contrast to both inventories of presettlement wetlands and current existing wetlands? The WSI was created based on seven criteria, normalized from 0 (low suitability) to 10 (high suitability), and illustrated through a weighted composite raster. Using an Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and importance determined from a scoping review of relevant literature, soil drainage had the greatest meaning and weight within the WSI (48.2%). The Getis-Ord Gi* index charted statistically significant “hot spots” and “cold spots” of wetland suitability. Last, the overlay analysis revealed greater similarity between high suitability sites and presettlement wetlands supporting the severity of historic wetland cannibalization. In sum, this transferable modeling approach to regional wetland restoration provides a prioritization tool for improving ecological connectivity, services, and resilience.


AIDS ◽  
2009 ◽  
Vol 23 (18) ◽  
pp. 2535-2537 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frank A Giordano ◽  
Jens Uwe Appelt ◽  
Manuela Zucknick ◽  
Mohammed Abba ◽  
W Jens Zeller ◽  
...  

Blood ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 122 (21) ◽  
pp. 1683-1683
Author(s):  
Catherine Bulka ◽  
Loretta J. Nastoupil ◽  
Jeffrey Switchenko ◽  
Kevin Ward ◽  
Rana Bayakly ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Exploring spatial patterns of disease incidence allows for the identification of areas of elevated or decreased risk. For chronic lymphocytic leukemia and small lymphocytic leukemia (CLL/SLL), which have poorly understood etiologies, identifying spatial patterns through cluster analysis may provide insight about potential environmental and socio-demographic risk factors. Methods In order to investigate the spatial patterns of CLL/SLL incidence among adults (≥ 20 years), we linked cancer incidence data for the period 1999-2008 from the Georgia Comprehensive Cancer Registry (a CDC-supported a statewide population-based cancer registry collecting all cancer cases diagnosed among Georgia residents since 1995) with population data from the 2000 U.S. Census. CLL/SLL cases were aggregated to the census tract level. CLL/SLL incidence in Georgia was standardized indirectly by age, sex, and race to national rates obtained from SEER*Stat software. Choropleth maps were created to depict the ratio of observed to expected incidence (standardized incidence ratios [SIR]) by census tract using ArcGIS. Spatial Empirical Bayes smoothing was performed on the SIR values using GeoDa 1.01. To assess spatial correlation of SIRs, we conducted global and local cluster analyses by calculating global Moran’s I and local Moran’s I (also known as Local Indicators of Spatial Autocorrelation [LISA]) values. Cluster analyses were repeated, stratifying by age (20-59 years, 60+ years), sex, and race (Caucasian and African American). P-values less than 0.01 were considered statistically significant. Results 765 incident CLL/SLL cases occurred among adults residing in Georgia between 1999 and 2008 (Table 1). There was a positive spatial autocorrelation for cases of CLL/SLL age 60 and older indicating these cases were geographically clustered (p = 0.0010) (Table 2). The LISA cluster map of the smoothed standardized incidence ratios shows the locations of “hot-spots” (high-high clusters) and “cold-spots” (low-low clusters) with clustering of high smoothed SIRs was found in the metro-Atlanta area, Albany, Macon, and outside of Augusta while cold-spots were mostly in the southern region of the state. Conclusions Despite the low number of cases of CLL/SLL in Georgia during the 10-year period studied, we found evidence of spatial clustering among adults 60 years and above. Hot-spots of smoothed SIRs were located in the metro-Atlanta area, Albany, Macon, and near Augusta, but these varied when stratified by age, sex, and race, suggesting confounding or effect modification that warrants further investigation. Disclosures: Flowers: Spectrum: Research Funding; Celgene: Consultancy, Research Funding; Millennium/Takeda: Consultancy, Research Funding; Genentech BioOncology: Consultancy; Sanofi: Research Funding; Janssen: Research Funding; Abbott: Research Funding.


1988 ◽  
Vol 8 (8) ◽  
pp. 3364-3372 ◽  
Author(s):  
J L Yang ◽  
V M Maher ◽  
J J McCormick

1-Nitropyrene has been shown in bacterial assays to be the principal mutagenic agent in diesel emission particulates. It has also been shown to be mutagenic in human fibroblasts and carcinogenic in animals. To investigate the kinds of mutations induced by this carcinogen and compare them with those induced by a structurally related carcinogen, (+/-)-7 beta,8 alpha-dihydroxy-9 alpha,10 alpha-epoxy-7,8,9,10-tetra-hydrobenzo [a]pyrene (BPDE) (J.-L. Yang, V. M. Maher, and J. J. McCormick, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 84:3787-3791, 1987), we treated a shuttle vector with tritiated 1-nitrosopyrene (1-NOP), a carcinogenic mutagenic intermediate metabolite of 1-nitropyrene which forms the same DNA adduct as the parent compound, and introduced the plasmids into a human embryonic kidney cell line, 293, for DNA replication to take place. The treated plasmid, pZ189, carrying a bacterial suppressor tRNA target gene, supF, was allowed 48 h to replicate in the human cells. Progeny plasmids were then rescued, purified, and introduced into bacteria carrying an amber mutation in the beta-galactosidase gene in order to detect those carrying mutations in the supF gene. The frequency of mutants increased in direct proportion to the number of DNA-1-NOP adducts formed per plasmid. At the highest level of adduct formation tested, the frequency of supF mutants was 26 times higher than the background frequency of 1.4 X 10(-4). DNA sequencing of 60 unequivocally independent mutant derived from 1-NOP-treated plasmids indicated that 80% contained a single base substitution, 5% had two base substitutions, 4% had small insertions or deletions (1 or 2 base pairs), and 11% showed a deletion or insertion of 4 or more base pairs. Sequence data from 25 supF mutants derived from untreated plasmids showed that 64% contained deletions of 4 or more base pairs. The majority (83%) of the base substitution in mutants from 1-NOP-treated plasmids were transversions, with 73% of these being G . C --> T . A. This is very similar to what we found previously in this system, using BPDE, but each carcinogen produced its own spectrum of mutations. Of the five hot spots for base substitution mutations produced in the supF gene with 1-NOP, two were the same as seen with BPDE-treated plasmids. However, the three other hot spots were cold spots for BPDE-treated plasmids. Conversely, four of the other five hot spots seen with BPDE-treated plasmids were cold spots for 1-NOP-treated plasmids. Comparison of the two carcinogens for the frequency of supF mutants induced per DNA adduct showed that 1-NOP-induced adducts were 3.8 times less than BPDE adducts. However, the 293 cell excised 1-NOP-induced adducts faster than BPDE adducts.


2013 ◽  
Vol 734-737 ◽  
pp. 1752-1756
Author(s):  
Kai Yong She ◽  
Wen Jun Chen

Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis was used to analyze the evolvement of spatia1 pattern on coal consumption in China since 2002. General spatial autocorrelation of coal consumption in 31 provinces of China was analyzed by Morans I and Getis-Ord General G. Getis-0rd Gi* was used to test the local spatial dependence, identifying the spatial distribution of hot spots and cold spots. The results show that coal consumption per capita of 31 provinces in China exhibits an enhanced trend of spatial autocorrelation. The areas with similar level of coal consumption are clustered in space. The coal consumption activity can be affected by the neighborhoods and their own regions. Hotspot areas are mainly concentrated in North and Northeast China and continuously increase with time, coldspot areas are mainly concentrated in South China and constantly decrease by time. So government needs to consider the spatial interaction mechanism of coal consumption when establishing the energy management policy.


Dela ◽  
2019 ◽  
pp. 111-134
Author(s):  
Miroslav Vysoudil ◽  
Karolina Kácovská ◽  
Darko Ogrin

This paper presents the results of a study of thermal behaviour of different land cover types in the Czech Republic and Slovenia. A hand-held thermal camera, Fluke Ti55, was used for data collection. Variation in the values of the surface temperature characteristics reflects the geographically dissimilar spaces. The investigation demonstrated impact of dense green vegetation and water bodies on the balanced thermal behaviour of landscapes in both countries. Thus, they appear to be cold spots with the lowest values. The most obvious variation in surface temperature is associated with artificial areas and bare surfaces. They usually represent hot spots in the landscape. In both countries similar thermal behaviour was found in artificial land cover types as opposed to agricultural land cover types.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ma Zhiyang ◽  
Xiong Wang ◽  
Meifang Li ◽  
Da Zhou ◽  
Jianjian Zhang ◽  
...  

Abstract Background and PurposeThe importance of environmental factors (especially leptospirosis) in moyamoya disease (MMD) has not been clarified. Here we investigated the epidemiological characteristics of MMD under perspective of ecology in Hubei province, China.MethodsWe conducted a population-based study to describe the epidemiologic characteristics of MMD in Hubei province between 2017 and 2019. The regional clusters of the hot spots (high incidence) and cold spots (low incidence) of MMD were identified using the spatial statistical method. To evaluate the role of leptospirosis in MMD, we performed an ecological comparison study to evaluate whether the socioeconomic and environmental variables of hot spots are more suitable for leptospirosis spread. Results The average annual age-adjusted incidence of MMD was 2.85 per 100 000 person-years from 2017 to 2019. The middle-aged had higher incidence of MMD than the children. There existed an obvious geographic distribution of MMD at county level that the average annual age-adjusted incidence of hot spots was about 8 times than the cold spots. The hot spots were identified mainly in the low mountainous and hilly terrain, while cold spots were located in the Jianghan Plains. Compared to cold spots, the hot spots had larger cattle density (28.9 vs 7.7, P=0.002), higher percentages of rice field (80.3% vs 35.7%, P=0.002), and lower elevation (33.6 vs 157.4, P=0.001)Conclusions We identified the obvious geographic distribution of MMD in the province, which initially strengthened the importance of environmental factors of this disease. Moreover, we preliminarily identified that people who lived in the low elevation regions with close contact to the cattle and rice field has a high risk of MMD. Future studies are needed to explore the potential environmental factors in MMD, especially for early-life exposure to leptospirosis.


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