scholarly journals A nomogram to predict stricture after endoscopic submucosal dissection for early esophageal cancer

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xue Li ◽  
Jie Xing ◽  
Peng Li ◽  
Shengtao Zhu ◽  
Qian Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Esophageal Cancer ◽  
Esophageal Stricture ◽  
Operation Time ◽  
Roc Curves ◽  
Proportional Hazard ◽  
Early Esophageal Cancer ◽  
Postoperative Fever ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard Regression

Abstract Background: Risk factors of esophageal stricture after ESD are inconsistent and incomprehensive, the present study aimed to identify a robust model to predict postoperative stricture.Methods: This retrospective study included 273 individuals underwent ESD for early esophageal cancer from January 1, 2014 to October 30, 2020 in Beijing Friendship Hospital. Univariate Cox proportional hazard regression was used to estimate potential factors of stricture after ESD, followed by multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression to identify significant independent predictors after adjusting for covariates. Nomogram building based on multivariate Cox regression model was used to evaluate accuracy and discrimination by ROC curves and calibration curves respectively.Results: Stricture was identified in 28 patients (10%). The other patients were enrolled in non-stricture group (n=243). Multivariate Cox proportional hazard model demonstrated that operation time (HR 1.01, 95%CI: 1.00-1.01, P<0.01), upper segment of esophagus (HR 6.48, 95%CI: 2.07-20.33, P<0.01), middle segment of esophagus (HR 3.42, 95%CI: 1.36-8.64, P<0.01), >3/4 circumferential lumen of esophagus (HR 6.32, 95%CI: 2.20-18.13, P<0.01), postoperative fever (HR 6.17, 95%CI: 1.75-21.77, P<0.01), were independent predictive factors for postoperative stricture. The predictive accuracy of the nomogram was estimated by the AUC of ROC curves was 0.93, 0.87, 0.87 at 1 year, 2 years, and 3 years respectively.Conclusion: Longer operation time, >3/4 of the circumferential lumen of esophagus, located at upper and middle esophageal segment, and postoperative fever were independent risk factors of esophageal stricture after ESD.

P0411PREDICTORS OF RENAL AND PATIENT OUTCOME IN PATIENTS WITH IDIOPATHIC MEMBRANOUS NEPHROPATHY: FROM KOGNET DATA

2020 ◽  
Vol 35 (Supplement_3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ji-Young Choi ◽  
Ji Hye Kim ◽  
Ga Young Lee ◽  
Hee Won Noh ◽  
Soojee Jeon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Patient Outcome ◽  
Serum Albumin ◽  
Serum Albumin Level ◽  
Patient Survival ◽  
Albumin Level ◽  
Proportional Hazard ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard Regression

Abstract Background and Aims Idiopathic membranous nephropathy (iMN) is a leading cause of nephrotic syndrome and one of the major causes of end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Various factors can affect renal and patient outcome in patients with iMN. In this study, we analyzed the predictors of renal and patient survival in patients with iMN. Method We analyzed 1,776 patients diagnosed with iMN in Korean GlomeruloNEphritis STudy (KoGNET), a retrospective database of patients with renal biopsy from 1979 to 2018 from 18 centers in Korea. Student t-test for continuous variables and Chi-square test for categorical variables were performed for analyses. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to determine risk factors affecting renal and patient survival. Results The mean age of patients was 53.0 ± 14.7 years old and 1,075 (60.5%) were male. At the time of renal biopsy, 755 (46.0%) and 266 (16.2%) had hypertension and diabetes, respectively. Serum albumin level was 2.7 ± 0.8 g/dL and 871 (49.0%) had nephrotic range of proteinuria. When analyzed by dividing over 65 and under, the hemoglobin and serum albumin level were lower, more patients showed nephrotic ranged proteinuria, and higher prevalence of comorbidities such as hypertension, diabetes, coronary heart disease and cerebrovascular disease in the group over 65 than in the group under 65. Median duration of follow-up was 88.0 (38.0 – 115.1) months. Complete or partial remission rates were 48.5%, 63.8%, and 68.0% at 6 months, 12months after biopsy, and last follow-up, respectively. In Cox proportional hazard regression, high hemoglobin [HR 0.66 (0.47 – 0.93), p=0.017], high serum albumin level [HR 0.41 (0.18 – 0.94), p=0.034], and high estimated GFR by CKD-EPI equation [HR 0.94 (0.91 – 0.96), p&lt;0.001] at biopsy were good predictors for renal outcome, whereas presence of cerebrovascular disease at biopsy [HR 6.45 (1.16 – 35.71), p=0.033] were poor prognostic factors for ESRD. Age 65 and older [HR 3.26 (1.53 – 6.95), p=0.002] and presence of hypertension at biopsy [HR 2.45 (1.09 – 5.54), p=0.031] were significant risk factors for patient survival in multivariate Cox proportional regression analysis. Conclusion High hemoglobin and serum albumin, and good renal function at biopsy were good predictors for renal survival. Older age and hypertension at biopsy were poor prognostic factors for patient survival in iMN patients. Prognostic information of outcomes in this study might be helpful to optimize management in iMN patients.

scholarly journals Clinical Characteristics, Prognosis, and Nomogram for Esophageal Cancer Based on Adenosquamous Carcinoma: A SEER Database Analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haisheng Qian ◽  
Xiaofeng Ji ◽  
Chang Liu ◽  
Yini Dang ◽  
Xuan Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Esophageal Cancer ◽  
Clinical Characteristics ◽  
Adenosquamous Carcinoma ◽  
Hazard Model ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard Model ◽  
Proportional Hazard ◽  
Seer Database ◽  
Proportional Hazard Model ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard

Objective: Esophageal adenosquamous carcinoma (ASC) is a rare pathological type of cancer. Its clinical features and prognosis is poorly understood. The purpose of this study was to identify the characteristics of ASC patients and analyze the risk factors of esophageal carcinoma.Methods: Patients with esophageal cancer in the SEER database diagnosed from 1975–2016 were obtained. The epidemiology, clinical characteristics, and outcomes between these three groups were compared. The nomogram and online dynamic nomogram were constructed according to the Cox proportional hazard model.Results: The age-adjusted incidences of AC (1975–1999), AC (1999–2016), and ASC (1975–1989) increased over time (p &lt; 0.05). Age-adjusted incidences of SqCC (1986–2012) and ASC (1989–2016) decreased (p &lt; 0.05). Survival of patients with ASC was significantly worse when compared to AC and SqCC (ASC vs. AC, p &lt; 0.001, ASC vs. SqCC, p = 0.01). ASC, older age, black race, male, overlapping site, higher tumor grade, lymph node metastasis, and a higher summary stage or AJCC stage were considered to be risk factors for a poor survival in the multivariate Cox analysis. The ROC curves and AUC indicated that the model has a good discrimination ability (AUC were 0.774 for a 3-year OS and 0.782 for a 5-year OS). An online dynamic nomogram was built based on the Cox proportional hazard model for convenient clinical use.Conclusions: ASC is somewhat closer to AC rather than SqCC in terms of the demographics and tumor site, but has a worse OS than both AC and SqCC.

scholarly journals Turbinate Submucosal Reduction Operation Reduced Migraine Admission among Patients with Chronic Hypertrophic Rhinitis

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (15) ◽  
pp. 5455
Author(s):  
Chun-An Cheng ◽  
Yin-Han Chang ◽  
Chun-Gu Cheng ◽  
Hung-Che Lin ◽  
Chi-Hsiang Chung ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Proportional Hazard ◽  
Comorbid Conditions ◽  
Reduction Operation ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard ◽  
Chronic Hypertrophic Rhinitis ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard Regression ◽  
The Relationship

Rhinitis increases migraine risk. Chronic hypertrophic rhinitis can be treated with turbinate submucosal reduction operation. The relationship between migraine and chronic hypertrophic rhinitis after turbinate submucosal reduction operation is still unclear. The goal of this study was to evaluate the correlation between turbinate submucosal reduction operation and subsequent migraine admission in Asian chronic hypertrophic rhinitis patients. We identified patients suffering from chronic hypertrophic rhinitis and receiving turbinate submucosal reduction operation. The control group was selected from patients with chronic hypertrophic rhinitis without operation. The event was migraine admission. The risk factors of migraine admission were established using multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression. The risk of migraine admission after turbinate submucosal reduction operation is represented by a hazard ratio (HR) of 0.858 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.633–0.962). The higher risk of migraine included depression with HR 4.348 (95% CI: 2.826–6.69), anxiety with HR 3.75 (95% CI: 2.267–6.203), fibromyalgia with HR of 7.326 (95% CI: 3.427–15.661), and asthma with HR 1.969 (95% CI: 1.11–3.491). Our study revealed that turbinate submucosal reduction operation led to a 14.2% reduction in migraine admission. Clinicians should understand the benefit of turbinate submucosal reduction operation and provide suitable treatments for comorbid conditions. Further prospective studies are required to confirm our findings.

scholarly journals Low serum parathyroid hormone is a risk factor for peritonitis episodes in incident peritoneal dialysis patients: a retrospective study

2021 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuqi Yang ◽  
Jingjing Da ◽  
Yi Jiang ◽  
Jing Yuan ◽  
Yan Zha
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factor ◽  
Peritoneal Dialysis ◽  
Parathyroid Hormone ◽  
Proportional Hazard ◽  
Serum Parathyroid Hormone ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard Regression ◽  
Gram Negative Organisms ◽  
Serum Pth

Abstract Background Serum parathyroid hormone (PTH) levels have been reported to be associated with infectious mortality in peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients. Peritonitis is the most common and fatal infectious complication, resulting in technique failure, hospital admission and mortality. Whether PTH is associated with peritonitis episodes remains unclear. Methods We examined the association of PTH levels and peritonitis incidence in a 7-year cohort of 270 incident PD patients who were maintained on dialysis between January 2012 and December 2018 using Cox proportional hazard regression analyses. Patients were categorized into three groups by serum PTH levels as follows: low-PTH group, PTH < 150 pg/mL; middle-PTH group, PTH 150-300 pg/mL; high-PTH group, PTH > 300 pg/mL. Results During a median follow-up of 29.5 (interquartile range 16–49) months, the incidence rate of peritonitis was 0.10 episodes per patient-year. Gram-positive organisms were the most common causative microorganisms (36.2%), and higher percentage of Gram-negative organisms was noted in patients with low PTH levels. Low PTH levels were associated with older age, higher eGFR, higher hemoglobin, calcium levels and lower phosphate, alkaline phosphatase levels. After multivariate adjustment, lower PTH levels were identified as an independent risk factor for peritonitis episodes [hazard ratio 1.643, 95% confidence interval 1.014–2.663, P = 0.044]. Conclusions Low PTH levels are independently associated with peritonitis in incident PD patients.

Factors affecting progression to permanent atrial fibrillation in an unselected population of patients with non-permanent form of atrial fibrillation

2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
V.L Malavasi ◽  
E Fantecchi ◽  
V Tordoni ◽  
L Melara ◽  
A Barbieri ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Roc Curves ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
History Of ◽  
Unselected Population ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard Regression

Abstract Background Natural history of atrial fibrillation (AF) shows a progression of arrhythmia from non-permanent to permanent AF. Permanent AF was found associated with a worse prognosis than non-permanent one. Aim To assess the factors associated with progression to permanent AF in an unselected population of AF patients with non-permanent AF. Methods In this prospective study we enrolled in- as well as out-patients with non-permanent AF and age ≥18 years, with at least one episode of ECG-documented AF within 1 year. The patients were followed-up at 1 month and every 6 months thereafter. Results Out of 523 patients, 314 (60%) were in non-permanent AF (80 [25.5%] paroxysmal AF, 165 [52.5%] persistent AF, 69 [2%] first diagnosed AF), mostly male (188, 59.9%), median age 71 years (IQ range 62–77), median CHA2DS2VASc 3 (1–4), median HATCH score 1 (1–2). After a median follow-up of 701 (IQ range 437–902) days, 66 patients (21%) showed permanent AF. CHA2DS2VASc and HATCH scores were incrementally associated to progression to permanent AF (CHA2DS2VASc χ2 p=0.001; HATCH χ2 p=0.017; p for trend CHA2DS2VASc &lt;0.001, HATCH p=0.001). At multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression the following variables were significantly associated with AF progression: age (hazard ratio [HR] 1.041; 95% CI: 1.004–1.079; p=0.028), at least moderate left atrial (LA) enlargement (&gt;42 ml/m2) (HR 2.092; 95% CI: 1.132–3.866; p=0.018), antiarrhythmics drugs after the enrollment (HR 0.087; 95% CI: 0.011–0.662; p=0.018), EHRA score &gt;2 (HR 0.351; 95% CI: 0.158–0.779; p=0.010) and Valvular HD (HR 2.161; 95% CI: 1.057–4.420; p=0.035). Adding LA dilation to HATCH score (HATCH-LA) and assigning 2 points based on multivariable Cox regression, HATCH-LA was statistically better in ROC curves in prediction of AF progression vs HATCH score (area under the curve 0.695 vs 0.636; DeLong p=0.0225). Survival-free curves on freedom from permanent AF using as discriminator HATCH-LA score ≤2 vs &gt;2 led to a statistically significant difference (χ2=16.080 p&lt;0.001), but the same was not found for HATCH score (χ2 =3.099; p=0.078). Conclusions In patients without permanent AF, progression of AF was independentely related to age, LA dilation, AF symptoms severity, antiarrhythmic drugs and Valvular HD. HATCH score predicted AF progression and adding to it LA dilation (at least moderate) improved patients stratification for the risk of evolution to permanent AF. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: None

scholarly journals AB0292 EFFICACY AND SAFETY OF TWO BIOSIMILAR ETANERCEPT AFTER THE SWITCH FROM THEIR CORRESPONDING ORIGINATOR IN THE TREATMENT OF PATIENTS WITH AUTOIMMUNE ARTHRITIS; A RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS IN A REAL LIFE SETTING

2020 ◽  
Vol 79 (Suppl 1) ◽  
pp. 1445.1-1445
Author(s):  
F. Girelli ◽  
A. Ariani ◽  
M. Bruschi ◽  
A. Becciolini ◽  
L. Gardelli ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Disease Duration ◽  
Retention Rate ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Autoimmune Arthritis ◽  
Proportional Hazard ◽  
Hazard Regression ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard ◽  
Real Life Setting ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard Regression

Background:The available biosimilars of etanercept are as effective and well tolerated as their bio originator molecule in the naive treatment of chronic autoimmune arthritis. More data about the switching from the bio originator are needed.Objectives:To compare the clinical outcomes of the treatment with etanercept biosimilars (SB4 and GP2015) naïve and after the switch from their corresponding originator in patients affected by autoimmune arthritis in a real life settingMethods:We retrospectively analyzed the baseline characteristics and the retention rate in a cohort of patients who received at least a course of etanercept (originator or biosimilar) in our Rheumatology Units from January 2000 to January 2020. We stratified the study population according to biosimilar use. Descriptive data are presented by medians (interquartile range [IQR]) for continuous data or as numbers (percentages) for categorical data. Drug survival distribution curves were computed by the Kaplan-Meier method and compared by a stratified log-rank test. A Cox proportional hazards regression analysis stratified by indication, drug, age, disease duration, sex, treatment line, biosimilar use and prescription year was performed. P values≤0.05 were considered statistically significant.Results:477 patients (65% female, median age 56 [46-75] years, median disease duration 97 [40.25-178.75] months) treated with etanercept were included in the analysis. 257 (53.9%) were affect by rheumatoid arthritis, 139 (29.1%) by psoriatic arthritis, and 81 (17%) by axial spondylarthritis. 298 (62.5%) were treated with etanercept originator, 97 (20.3%) with SB4, and 82 (17.2%) with GP2015. Among the biosimilars 90/179 (50.3%) patients were naïve to etanercept treatment. Among the 89 switchers we observed 8 treatment discontinuations: one due to surgical infection complication, three due to disease flare, two due to subjective worsening and one due to remission. The overall 6- and 12-month retentions rate were 92.8% and 80.2%. The 6- and 12-month retention rate for etanercept, SB4 and GP2015 were 92.7%, 93.4% and 90.2%, and 82%, 74.5% and 88.1% respectively, without significant differences among the three groups (p=0.374). Patients switching from originator to biosimilars showed and overall higher treatment survival when compared to naive (12-month retention rate 81.2% vs 70.8%, p=0.036). The Cox proportional hazard regression analysis highlighted that the only predictor significantly associated with an overall higher risk of treatment discontinuation was the year of prescription (HR 1.08, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.13; p<0.0001).Conclusion:In our retrospective study etanercept originator and its biosimilars (SB4 and GP2015) showed the same effectiveness. Patients switching from originator to biosimilar showed an significant higher retention rate when compared to naive. The only predictor of treatment discontinuation highlighted by the Cox proportional hazard regression analysis was the year of treatment prescription.Disclosure of Interests:Francesco Girelli: None declared, Alarico Ariani: None declared, Marco Bruschi: None declared, Andrea Becciolini Speakers bureau: Sanofi-Genzyme, UCB and AbbVie, Lucia Gardelli: None declared, Maurizio Nizzoli: None declared

Manual occupations with high all-cause mortality: The contribution of socioeconomic and occupational characteristics

2020 ◽  
pp. 140349482096065
Author(s):  
Hanna Rinne ◽  
Mikko Laaksonen
Keyword(s):  
High Mortality ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Proportional Hazard ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard ◽  
Occupational Characteristics ◽  
Study Population ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard Regression ◽  
Year 2000

Aims: Most high mortality-risk occupations are manual occupations. We examined to what extent high mortality of such occupations could be explained by education, income, unemployment or industry and whether there were differences in these effects among different manual occupations. Methods: We used longitudinal individual-level register-based data, the study population consisting of employees aged 30–64 at the end of the year 2000 with the follow-up period 2001–2015. We used Cox proportional hazard regression models in 31 male and 11 female occupations with high mortality. Results: There were considerable differences between manual occupations in how much adjusting for education, income, unemployment and industry explained the excess mortality. The variation was especially large among men: controlling for these variables explained over 50% of the excess mortality in 23 occupations. However, in some occupations the excess mortality even increased in relation to unadjusted mortality. Among women, these variables explained a varying proportion of the excess mortality in every occupation. After adjustment of all variables, mortality was no more statistically significantly higher than average in 14 occupations among men and 2 occupations among women. Conclusions: The high mortality in manual occupations was mainly explained by education, income, unemployment and industry. However, the degree of explanation varied widely between occupations, and considerable variation in mortality existed between manual occupations after controlling for these variables. More research is needed on other determinants of mortality in specific high-risk occupations.

Association of Dementia-Related Psychosis With Long-term Care Use and Death

Neurology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 96 (12) ◽  
pp. e1620-e1631
Author(s):  
James B. Wetmore ◽  
Yi Peng ◽  
Heng Yan ◽  
Suying Li ◽  
Muna Irfan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Long Term Care ◽  
Fold Increase ◽  
Proportional Hazard ◽  
Comorbid Conditions ◽  
Term Care ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard Regression

ObjectiveTo determine the association of dementia-related psychosis (DRP) with death and use of long-term care (LTC); we hypothesized that DRP would be associated with increased risk of death and use of LTC in patients with dementia.MethodsA retrospective cohort study was performed. Medicare claims from 2008 to 2016 were used to define cohorts of patients with dementia and DRP. Outcomes were LTC, defined as nursing home stays of >100 consecutive days, and death. Patients with DRP were directly matched to patients with dementia without psychosis by age, sex, race, number of comorbid conditions, and dementia index year. Association of DRP with outcomes was evaluated using a Cox proportional hazard regression model.ResultsWe identified 256,408 patients with dementia. Within 2 years after the dementia index date, 13.9% of patients developed DRP and 31.9% had died. Corresponding estimates at 5 years were 25.5% and 64.0%. Mean age differed little between those who developed DRP (83.8 ± 7.9 years) and those who did not (83.1 ± 8.7 years). Patients with DRP were slightly more likely to be female (71.0% vs 68.3%) and white (85.7% vs 82.0%). Within 2 years of developing DRP, 16.1% entered LTC and 52.0% died; corresponding percentages for patients without DRP were 8.4% and 30.0%, respectively. In the matched cohort, DRP was associated with greater risk of LTC (hazard ratio [HR] 2.36, 2.29–2.44) and death (HR 2.06, 2.02–2.10).ConclusionsDRP was associated with a more than doubling in the risk of death and a nearly 2.5-fold increase in risk of the need for LTC.

Association between Preoperative Monocyte-to-Lymphocyte Ratio and Late Arteriovenous Fistula Dysfunction in Hemodialysis Patients: A Cohort Study

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
Shouliang Hu ◽  
Dan Wang ◽  
Tean Ma ◽  
Fanli Yuan ◽  
Yong Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cohort Study ◽  
Arteriovenous Fistula ◽  
Vessel Diameter ◽  
Transluminal Angioplasty ◽  
Proportional Hazard ◽  
Clinical Value ◽  
Hazard Regression ◽  
Lymphocyte Ratio ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazard Regression

<b><i>Background:</i></b> Inflammation appears to be at the biological core of arteriovenous fistula (AVF) dysfunction, and the occurrence of AVF dysfunction is related to high death and disability in hemodialysis (HD) patients. Despite several studies on the correlations between AVF dysfunction and inflammatory indicators, how AVF dysfunction is related to the monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio (MLR) is much unclear. We hypothesize that preoperative MLR is associated with AVF dysfunction in Chinese HD patients. <b><i>Methods:</i></b> In this single-center retrospective cohort study, totally 769 adult HD patients with a new AVF created between 2011 and 2019 were included. Association of preoperative MLR with AVF dysfunction (thrombosis or decrease of normal vessel diameter by &#x3e;50%, requiring either surgical revision or percutaneous transluminal angioplasty) was assessed by multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression. <b><i>Results:</i></b> The patients were aged 55.8 ± 12.2 years and were mostly males (55%). During the average 32-month follow-up (maximum 119 months), 223 (29.0%) patients had permanent vascular access dysfunction. In adjusted multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression analyses, the risk of AVF dysfunction was 4.32 times higher with 1 unit increase in MLR (hazard ratio [HR]: 5.32; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.1–9.11). Compared with patients with MLR &#x3c;0.28, HRs associated with an MLR of 0.28–0.41 and ≥0.41 are 1.54 (95% CI: 1.02–2.32) and 3.17 (2.18–4.62), respectively. <b><i>Conclusions:</i></b> A higher preoperative MLR is independently connected with a severer risk of AVF dysfunction in HD patients. Its clinical value should be determined in the future.

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