scholarly journals A machine learning based forecast model for the COVID-19 pandemic and investigation of the impact of government intervention on COVID-19 transmission in China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xingcheng Lu ◽  
Dehao Yuan ◽  
Wanying Chen ◽  
Jimmy Fung
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Back Propagation ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Back Propagation Neural Network ◽  
Flow Index ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Government Interventions ◽  
Migration Index ◽  
Machine Learning Model ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has killed over 0.3 million people, disrupted people’s normal lives, and severely restricted economic activities globally. In this work, a model for the next-day COVID-19 prediction in China was built based on the ensemble back-propagation neural network machine learning technique, Baidu migration index, internal travel flow index, and confirmed cases from the previous days. The 10-fold cross-validation results showed that the model performs well in estimating the next-day confirmed cases with a correlation coefficient of 0.97. To investigate the impacts of government interventions on the spread of this new coronavirus infection, the Baidu migration index and internal travel flow index multiplied by a factor of two were input into the trained machine learning model, and the results showed that the confirmed cases in the analyzed cities would increase dramatically. The correlation between the daily new confirmed cases and some meteorological factors were also analyzed, and the results revealed that these factors are not dominant in influencing the spread of this disease. Overall, the results of this work suggest that besides early diagnosis and medical treatment, a city lockdown policy is one of the most effective methods in suppressing the rapid spread of COVID-19.

scholarly journals Machine Learning Model for GSM BSC Control Plane Units

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (6S) ◽  
pp. 219-223
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Back Propagation ◽  
Back Propagation Neural Network ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Large Set ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Wide Acceptance ◽  
Machine Learning Model ◽  
Machine Learning Approach ◽  
Accuracy Of Prediction

At maximum traffic intensity i.e. during the busy hour, the GSM BSC signalling units (BSU) measured CPU load will be at its peak. The BSUs CPU load is a function of the number of transceivers (TRXs) mapped to it and hence the volume of offered traffic being handled by the unit. The unit CPU load is also a function of the nature of the offered load, i.e. with the same volume of offered load, the CPU load with the nominal traffic profile would be different as compared to some other arbitrary traffic profile. To manage future traffic growth, a model to estimate the BSU unit CPU load is an essential need. In recent times, using Machine Learning (ML) to develop such a model is an approach that has gained wide acceptance. Since, the estimation of CPU load is difficult as it depends on large set of parameters, machine learning approach is more scalable. In this paper, we describe a back-propagation neural network model that was developed to estimate the BSU unit CPU load. We describe the model parameters and choices and implementation architecture, and estimate its accuracy of prediction, based on an evaluation data set. We also discuss alternative ML architectures and compare their relative prediction accuracies, to the primary ML model

Forecasting US movies box office performances in Turkey using machine learning algorithms

2020 ◽  
Vol 39 (5) ◽  
pp. 6579-6590
Author(s):  
Sandy Çağlıyor ◽  
Başar Öztayşi ◽  
Selime Sezgin
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Learning Algorithms ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
High Stakes ◽  
Box Office ◽  
Industry Forecast ◽  
The Impact

The motion picture industry is one of the largest industries worldwide and has significant importance in the global economy. Considering the high stakes and high risks in the industry, forecast models and decision support systems are gaining importance. Several attempts have been made to estimate the theatrical performance of a movie before or at the early stages of its release. Nevertheless, these models are mostly used for predicting domestic performances and the industry still struggles to predict box office performances in overseas markets. In this study, the aim is to design a forecast model using different machine learning algorithms to estimate the theatrical success of US movies in Turkey. From various sources, a dataset of 1559 movies is constructed. Firstly, independent variables are grouped as pre-release, distributor type, and international distribution based on their characteristic. The number of attendances is discretized into three classes. Four popular machine learning algorithms, artificial neural networks, decision tree regression and gradient boosting tree and random forest are employed, and the impact of each group is observed by compared by the performance models. Then the number of target classes is increased into five and eight and results are compared with the previously developed models in the literature.

scholarly journals Airbnb Short-term Housing Rental Status Prediction Model Under the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 251 ◽  
pp. 01017
Author(s):  
Zhixiang Lu
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
New York ◽  
Regional Differences ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Visual Analysis ◽  
Sharing Economy ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Emerging Industries ◽  
Machine Learning Model ◽  
The Impact

With the vigorous development of the sharing economy, the short-term rental industry has also spawned many emerging industries that belong to the sharing economy. However, due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, many sharing economy industries, including the short-term housing leasing industry, have been affected. This study takes the rental information of 1,004 short-term rental houses in New York in April 2020 as an example, through machine learning and quantitative analysis, we conducted statistical and visual analysis on the impact of different factors on the housing rental status. This project is based on the machine learning model to predict the changes in the rental status of the house on the time series. The results show that the prediction accuracy of the random forest model has reached more than 94%, and the prediction accuracy of the logistic model has reached more than 74%. At the same time, we have further explored the impact of time span differences and regional differences on the housing rental status.

scholarly journals Author Correction: Machine learning model to project the impact of COVID-19 on US motor gasoline demand

Nature Energy ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (12) ◽  
pp. 1051-1052
Author(s):  
Shiqi Ou ◽  
Xin He ◽  
Weiqi Ji ◽  
Wei Chen ◽  
Lang Sui ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Learning Model ◽  
Gasoline Demand ◽  
Motor Gasoline ◽  
Machine Learning Model ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals Using a DEA–AutoML Approach to Track SDG Achievements

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (23) ◽  
pp. 10124
Author(s):  
Bodin Singpai ◽  
Desheng Wu
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Back Propagation ◽  
Back Propagation Neural Network ◽  
Correlated Data ◽  
Integrative Approach ◽  
Classification Prediction ◽  
Predicted Values ◽  
Highly Correlated ◽  
Prediction Problems ◽  
Data Result

Each country needs to monitor progress on their Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to develop strategies that meet the expectations of the United Nations. Data envelope analysis (DEA) can help identify best practices for SDGs by setting goals to compete against. Automated machine learning (AutoML) simplifies machine learning for researchers who need less time and manpower to predict future situations. This work introduces an integrative method that integrates DEA and AutoML to assess and predict performance in SDGs. There are two experiments with different data properties in their interval and correlation to demonstrate the approach. Three prediction targets are set to measure performance in the regression, classification, and multi-target regression algorithms. The back-propagation neural network (BPNN) is used to validate the outputs of the AutoML. As a result, AutoML can outperform BPNN for regression and classification prediction problems. Low standard deviation (SD) data result in poor prediction performance for the BPNN, but does not have a significant impact on AutoML. Highly correlated data result in a higher accuracy, but does not significantly affect the R-squared values between the actual and predicted values. This integrative approach can accurately predict the projected outputs, which can be used as national goals to transform an inefficient country into an efficient country.

scholarly journals The impact of data-complexity and team characteristics on performance in the classification model

2022 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 0-0
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Binary Classification ◽  
Class Imbalance ◽  
Predictive Ability ◽  
Predictive Performance ◽  
Classification Model ◽  
Data Complexity ◽  
High Performing ◽  
Machine Learning Model ◽  
The Impact

This article investigates the impact of data-complexity and team-specific characteristics on machine learning competition scores. Data from five real-world binary classification competitions hosted on Kaggle.com were analyzed. The data-complexity characteristics were measured in four aspects including standard measures, sparsity measures, class imbalance measures, and feature-based measures. The results showed that the higher the level of the data-complexity characteristics was, the lower the predictive ability of the machine learning model was as well. Our empirical evidence revealed that the imbalance ratio of the target variable was the most important factor and exhibited a nonlinear relationship with the model’s predictive abilities. The imbalance ratio adversely affected the predictive performance when it reached a certain level. However, mixed results were found for the impact of team-specific characteristics measured by team size, team expertise, and the number of submissions on team performance. For high-performing teams, these factors had no impact on team score.

scholarly journals Improving AdaBoost Classifier to Predict Enterprise Performance after COVID-19

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (18) ◽  
pp. 2215
Author(s):  
Jung-Kai Tsai ◽  
Chih-Hsing Hung
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Back Propagation ◽  
Classification Problem ◽  
Back Propagation Neural Network ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Enterprise Performance ◽  
Classification Problems ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Multi Class Classification

Because COVID-19 occurred in 2019, the behavioxr of humans has been changed and it will influence the business model of enterprise. Enterprise cannot predict its development according to past knowledge and experiment; so, it needs a new machine learning framework to predict enterprise performance. The goal of this research is to modify AdaBoost to reasonably predict the enterprise performance. In order to justify the usefulness of the proposed model, enterprise data will be collected and the proposed model can be used to predict the enterprise performance after COVID-19. The test data correct rate of the proposed model will be compared with some of the traditional machine learning models. Compared with the traditional AdaBoost, back propagation neural network (BPNN), regression classifier, support vector machine (SVM) and support vector regression (SVR), the proposed method possesses the better classification ability (average correct rate of the proposed method is 88.04%) in handling two classification problems. Compared with traditional AdaBoost, one-against-all SVM, one-against-one SVM, one-against-all SVR and one-against-one SVR, the classification ability of the proposed method is also relatively better for coping with the multi-class classification problem. Finally, some conclusions and future research will be discussed at the end.

Predicting Hairiness for Ring and Rotor Spun Yarns and Analyzing the Impact of Fiber Properties

1997 ◽  
Vol 67 (9) ◽  
pp. 694-698 ◽  
Author(s):  
Reiyao Zhu ◽  
M. Dean Ethridge
Keyword(s):  
Back Propagation ◽  
Back Propagation Neural Network ◽  
Fiber Properties ◽  
Fiber Property ◽  
Spun Yarns ◽  
Neural Network Algorithm ◽  
Yarn Hairiness ◽  
Rotor Yarn ◽  
Optimum Model ◽  
The Impact

Models for predicting ring or rotor yarn hairiness are built using a back-propagation neural network algorithm. These models are based on fiber property input measured by three different systems, hvi, afis, and fmt. We compare the prediction results from the different models, which reveal that yarn hairiness measurements from hvi data are superior to other models. The optimum model is based on the availability of all three measurement systems. We also study the impact of each fiber property on yarn hairiness. The dominant effect is fiber length. Each of the remaining properties has a different degree of impact on ring or rotor yarn hairiness.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document