scholarly journals Development of a Prognostic Model for 1-year Survival of Fragile Hip Fracture in Chinese

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hairui FU ◽  
Bin Liang ◽  
Wei Qin ◽  
Xiaoxiong Qiao ◽  
Qiang Liu
Keyword(s):  
Hip Fracture ◽  
Prognostic Model ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Treatment Plan ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Internal Validity ◽  
Cerebrovascular Diseases ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Internal Validation ◽  
C Statistic

Abstract Background: No prognostic model for survival of fragile hip fracture has been developed for Asians. The goal of this study is to develop a simple and practical prognosis model to predict the survival within 1 year after fragile hip fracture of Asians.Methods: A single Center and retrospective cohort study was designed. Under a multivariable Cox Proportional Hazards Regression Model, we used the preoperative characteristics of patients to predict survival within 1 year after hip fracture. We built a full model, then used the “least absolute shrinkage and selection operator(LASSO)” method to further shrink the model coefficients and achieved variable screening. Finally, we got a LASSO model. The model performance was evaluated with the Nagelkerke’s R2 and the concordance (c) statistic. We assessed internal validity with a bootstrapping procedure of 1 000 repetitions.RESULTS: 735 eligible patients were admitted to our department for hip fracture from January 2015 to December 2020. 11(1.5%) patients lost follow-up. Among the rest, 68(9.3%) died within 1 year after hip fracture. We finally identified 12 candidate predictors from preoperative characteristics of patients. The last model contains 9 predictors; that are surgery, age, albumin, sex, serum creatinine, malignancy, hypertension, the ability of living independence, and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases. Among them, surgery, age and albumin are the effective predictors of survival. The discrimination c statistic of the model is 0.814 (95% confidence interval 0.762-0.865); the corrected value through internal validation is 0.795. CONCLUSIONS: This prognostic model can provide a 1-year survival rate for patients with fragile hip fractures. This information can help clinicians develop a reasonable and personalized treatment plan.

scholarly journals Development of a prognostic model for 1-year survival after fragile hip fracture in Chinese

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hairui FU ◽  
Bin Liang ◽  
Wei Qin ◽  
Xiaoxiong Qiao ◽  
Qiang Liu
Keyword(s):  
Hip Fracture ◽  
Prognostic Model ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Treatment Plan ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Internal Validity ◽  
Cerebrovascular Diseases ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Internal Validation ◽  
C Statistic

Abstract BackgroundNo prognostic model for the survival of fragile hip fracture has been developed for Asians. The goal of this study was to develop a simple and practical prognostic model to predict survival within 1 year after fragile hip fracture in Asians.MethodsA single-center retrospective cohort study was designed. Under a multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression model, we used the preoperative characteristics of patients to predict survival within 1 year after hip fracture. We built a full model and then used the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) method to further shrink the model coefficients and achieved variable screening. Finally, we obtained a LASSO model. The model performance was evaluated with Nagelkerke’s R2 and the concordance (c) statistic. We assessed the internal validity with a bootstrapping procedure of 1 000 repetitions.ResultsA total of 735 eligible patients were admitted to our department for hip fracture from January 2015 to December 2020, but 11 (1.5%) patients were lost to follow-up. Among the remaining patients, 68 (9.3%) died within 1 year after hip fracture. We identified 12 candidate predictors from the preoperative characteristics of the patients. The last model contained 9 predictors: surgery, age, albumin, sex, serum creatinine, malignancy, hypertension, ability to live independently, and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases. Among them, surgery, age and albumin are effective predictors of survival. The discrimination c statistic of the model is 0.814 (95% confidence interval 0.762–0.865); the corrected value through internal validation is 0.795.ConclusionsThis prognostic model can accurately predict a 1-year survival rate for patients with fragile hip fractures. This information can help clinicians develop a reasonable and personalized treatment plan.

scholarly journals Development of a prognostic model for 1-year survival after fragile hip fracture in Chinese

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hairui Fu ◽  
Bin Liang ◽  
Wei Qin ◽  
Xiaoxiong Qiao ◽  
Qiang Liu
Keyword(s):  
Hip Fracture ◽  
Prognostic Model ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Treatment Plan ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Internal Validity ◽  
Cerebrovascular Diseases ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Internal Validation ◽  
C Statistic

Abstract Background No prognostic model for the survival of fragile hip fracture has been developed for Asians. The goal of this study was to develop a simple and practical prognostic model to predict survival within 1 year after fragile hip fracture in Asians. Methods A single-center retrospective cohort study was designed. Under a multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression model, we used the preoperative characteristics of patients to predict survival within 1 year after hip fracture. We built a full model and then used the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) method to further shrink the model coefficients and achieved variable screening. Finally, we obtained a LASSO model. The model performance was evaluated with Nagelkerke’s R2 and the concordance (c) statistic. We assessed the internal validity with a bootstrapping procedure of 1 000 repetitions. Results A total of 735 eligible patients were admitted to our department for hip fracture from January 2015 to December 2020, but 11 (1.5%) patients were lost to follow-up. Among the remaining patients, 68 (9.3%) died within 1 year after hip fracture. We identified 12 candidate predictors from the preoperative characteristics of the patients. The last model contained nine predictors: surgery, age, albumin, sex, serum creatinine, malignancy, hypertension, ability to live independently, and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases. Among them, surgery, age, and albumin are effective predictors of survival. The discrimination c statistic of the model is 0.814 (95% confidence interval 0.762–0.865); the corrected value through internal validation is 0.795. Conclusions This prognostic model can accurately predict a 1-year survival rate for patients with fragile hip fractures. This information can help clinicians develop a reasonable and personalized treatment plan.

scholarly journals The incidence of mental disorder increases after hip fracture in older people: a nationwide cohort study

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ling-Yin Kuo ◽  
Po-Ting Hsu ◽  
Wen-Tien Wu ◽  
Ru-Ping Lee ◽  
Jen-Hung Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cohort Study ◽  
Hip Fracture ◽  
Geriatric Patients ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Research Database ◽  
Fracture Group ◽  
Related Risk ◽  
And Control

Abstract Background People living with dementia seem to be more likely to experience delirium following hip fracture. The association between mental disorders (MD) and hip fracture remains controversial. We conducted a nationwide study to examine the prevalence of MD in geriatric patients with hip fractures undergoing surgery and conducted a related risk factor analysis. Material and methods This retrospective cohort study used data from Taiwan’s National Health Insurance Research Database between 2000 and 2012 and focused on people who were older than 60 years. Patients with hip fracture undergoing surgical intervention and without hip fracture were matched at a ratio of 1:1 for age, sex, comorbidities, and index year. The incidence and hazard ratios of age, sex, and multiple comorbidities related to MD and its subgroups were calculated using Cox proportional hazards regression models. Results A total of 1408 patients in the hip fracture group and a total of 1408 patients in the control group (no fracture) were included. The overall incidence of MD for the hip fracture and control groups per 100 person-years were 0.8 and 0.5, respectively. Among MD, the incidences of transient MD, depression, and dementia were significantly higher in the hip fracture group than in the control group. Conclusions The prevalence of newly developed MD, especially transient MD, depression, and dementia, was higher in the geriatric patients with hip fracture undergoing surgery than that in the control group. Prompt and aggressive prevention protocols and persistent follow-up of MD development is highly necessary in this aged society.

scholarly journals The association between triglyceride-glucose index, cardio-cerebrovascular diseases, and death in Korean adults: A retrospective study based on the NHIS-HEALS cohort

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (11) ◽  
pp. e0259212
Author(s):  
Joungyoun Kim ◽  
Sang-Jun Shin ◽  
Hee-Taik Kang
Keyword(s):  
Retrospective Study ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Smoking Status ◽  
Economic Status ◽  
Low Density Lipoprotein ◽  
Density Lipoprotein ◽  
Cerebrovascular Diseases ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Tyg Index ◽  
All Cause Mortality

Background The triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index is a reliable indicator of insulin resistance. We aimed to investigate the TyG index in relation to cardio-cerebrovascular diseases (CCVDs and mortality. Methods This retrospective study included 114,603 subjects. The TyG index was categorized into four quartiles by sex: Q1, <8.249 and <8.063; Q2, 8.249‒<8.614 and 8.063‒<8.403; Q3, 8.614‒< 8.998 and 8.403‒<8.752; and Q4, ≥8.998 and ≥8.752, in men and women, respectively. To calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the primary outcomes (CCVDs and all-cause mortality) and secondary outcomes (cardiovascular diseases [CVDs], cerebrovascular diseases [CbVDs], CCVD-related deaths, or all-cause deaths), Cox proportional hazards regression models were adopted. Results Compared to Q1, the HRs (95% CIs) for the primary outcomes of Q2, Q3, and Q4 were 1.062 (0.981‒1.150), 1.110 (1.024−1.204), and 1.151 (1.058−1.252) in men and 1.099 (0.986−1.226), 1.046 (0.938−1.166), and 1.063 (0.954−1.184) in women, respectively, after adjusted for age, smoking status, drinking status, physical activity, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, economic status, and anti-hypertensive medications. Fully adjusted HRs (95% CIs) for CVDs of Q2, Q3, and Q4 were 1.114 (0.969−1.282), 1.185 (1.031−1.363), and 1.232 (1.068−1.422) in men and 1.238 (1.017−1.508), 1.183 (0.971−1.440), and 1.238 (1.018−1.505) in women, respectively. The adjusted HRs (95% CIs) for ischemic CbVDs of Q2, Q3, and Q4 were 1.005 (0.850−1.187), 1.225 (1.041−1.441), and 1.232 (1.039−1.460) in men and 1.040 (0.821−1.316), 1.226 (0.981−1.532), and 1.312 (1.054−1.634) in women, respectively, while the TyG index was negatively associated with hemorrhagic CbVDs in women but not in men. The TyG index was not significantly associated with CCVD-related death or all-cause death in either sex. Conclusions Elevated TyG index was positively associated with the primary outcomes (CCVDs and all-cause mortality) in men and predicted higher risk of CVDs and ischemic CbVDs in both sexes.

scholarly journals Concurrent Use of Hypnotic Drugs and Chinese Herbal Medicine Therapies among Taiwanese Adults with Insomnia Symptoms: A Population-Based Study

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kuei-Hua Lee ◽  
Yueh-Ting Tsai ◽  
Jung-Nien Lai ◽  
Shun-Ku Lin
Keyword(s):  
Hip Fracture ◽  
Drug Interactions ◽  
Drug Users ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Research Database ◽  
Chinese Herbal ◽  
Hypnotic Drug ◽  
Concurrent Use ◽  
Hypnotic Drugs

Background. The increased practice of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) worldwide has raised concerns regarding herb-drug interactions. The purpose of our study is to analyze the concurrent use of Chinese herbal products (CHPs) among Taiwanese insomnia patients taking hypnotic drugs.Methods. The usage, frequency of services, and CHP prescribed among 53,949 insomnia sufferers were evaluated from a random sample of 1 million beneficiaries in the National Health Insurance Research Database. A logistic regression method was used to identify the factors that were associated with the coprescription of a CHP and a hypnotic drug. Cox proportional hazards regressions were performed to calculate the hazard ratios (HRs) of hip fracture between the two groups.Results. More than 1 of every 3 hypnotic users also used a CHP concurrently.Jia-Wei-Xiao-Yao-San(Augmented Rambling Powder) andSuan-Zao-Ren-Tang(Zizyphus Combination) were the 2 most commonly used CHPs that were coadministered with hypnotic drugs. The HR of hip fracture for hypnotic-drug users who used a CHP concurrently was 0.57-fold (95% CI = 0.47–0.69) that of hypnotic-drug users who did not use a CHP.Conclusion. Exploring potential CHP-drug interactions and integrating both healthcare approaches might be beneficial for the overall health and quality of life of insomnia sufferers.

scholarly journals Pre-Existing Disability and Its Risk of Fragility Hip Fracture in Older Adults

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (7) ◽  
pp. 1237
Author(s):  
Jayeun Kim ◽  
Soong-Nang Jang ◽  
Jae-Young Lim
Keyword(s):  
Older Adults ◽  
Hip Fracture ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Hazard Ratio ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Mental Disabilities ◽  
Term Care ◽  
Fragility Hip Fracture

Background: Hip fracture is one of the significant public concerns in terms of long-term care in aging society. We aimed to investigate the risk for the incidence of hip fracture focusing on disability among older adults. Methods: This was a population-based retrospective cohort study, focusing on adults aged 65 years or over who were included in the Korean National Health Insurance Service–National Sample from 2004 to 2013 (N = 90,802). Hazard ratios with 95% confidence interval (CIs) were calculated using the Cox proportional hazards model according to disability adjusted for age, household income, underlying chronic diseases, and comorbidity index. Results: The incidence of hip fracture was higher among older adults with brain disability (6.3%) and mental disability (7.5%) than among those with other types of disability, as observed during the follow-up period. Risk of hip fracture was higher among those who were mildly to severely disabled (hazard ratio for severe disability = 1.59; 95% CI, 1.33–1.89; mild = 1.68; 95% CI, 1.49–1.88) compared to those who were not disabled. Older men with mental disabilities experienced an incidence of hip fracture that was almost five times higher (hazard ratio, 4.98; 95% CI, 1.86–13.31) versus those that were not disabled. Conclusions: Older adults with mental disabilities and brain disability should be closely monitored and assessed for risk of hip fracture.

Multi-Institutional Validation of a New Renal Cancer–Specific Survival Nomogram

2007 ◽  
Vol 25 (11) ◽  
pp. 1316-1322 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pierre I. Karakiewicz ◽  
Alberto Briganti ◽  
Felix K.-H. Chun ◽  
Quoc-Dien Trinh ◽  
Paul Perrotte ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Renal Cancer ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
External Validation ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cancer Specific Survival ◽  
Internal Validation ◽  
Fuhrman Grade ◽  
Histologic Subtype ◽  
Cancer Specific Mortality

Purpose We tested the hypothesis that the prediction of renal cancer–specific survival can be improved if traditional predictor variables are used within a prognostic nomogram. Patients and Methods Two cohorts of patients treated with either radical or partial nephrectomy for renal cortical tumors were used: one (n = 2,530) for nomogram development and for internal validation (200 bootstrap resamples), and a second (n = 1,422) for external validation. Cox proportional hazards regression analyses modeled the 2002 TNM stages, tumor size, Fuhrman grade, histologic subtype, local symptoms, age, and sex. The accuracy of the nomogram was compared with an established staging scheme. Results Cancer-specific mortality was observed in 598 (23.6%) patients, whereas 200 (7.9%) died as a result of other causes. Follow-up ranged from 0.1 to 286 months (median, 38.8 months). External validation of the nomogram at 1, 2, 5, and 10 years after nephrectomy revealed predictive accuracy of 87.8%, 89.2%, 86.7%, and 88.8%, respectively. Conversely, the alternative staging scheme predicting at 2 and 5 years was less accurate, as evidenced by 86.1% (P = .006) and 83.9% (P = .02) estimates. Conclusion The new nomogram is more contemporary, provides predictions that reach further in time and, compared with its alternative, which predicts at 2 and 5 years, generates 3.1% and 2.8% more accurate predictions, respectively.

scholarly journals Sodium Fluctuations and Mortality in a General Hospitalized Population

2019 ◽  
Vol 44 (4) ◽  
pp. 604-614 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gianmarco Lombardi ◽  
Pietro Manuel Ferraro ◽  
Luca Calvaruso ◽  
Alessandro Naticchia ◽  
Silvia D’Alonzo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hospital Mortality ◽  
Hospital Admission ◽  
Hospital Stay ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Medical Center ◽  
Cerebrovascular Diseases ◽  
Linear Increase ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Hospital Death ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Models

Background/Aims: Aim of our study was to describe the association between natremia (Na) fluctuation and hospital mortality in a general population admitted to a tertiary medical center. Methods: We performed a retrospective observational cohort study on the patient population admitted to the Fondazione Policlinico A. Gemelli IRCCS Hospital between January 2010 and December 2014 with inclusion of adult patients with at least 2 Na values available and with a normonatremic condition at hospital admission. Patients were categorized according to all Na values recorded during hospital stay in the following groups: normonatremia, hyponatremia, hypernatremia, and mixed dysnatremia. The difference between the highest or the lowest Na value reached during hospital stay and the Na value read at hospital admission was used to identify the maximum Na fluctuation. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for in-hospital death in the groups with dysnatremias and across quartiles of Na fluctuation. Covariates assessed were age, sex, highest and lowest Na level, Charlson/Deyo score, cardiovascular diseases, cerebrovascular diseases, dementia, congestive heart failure, severe kidney disease, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and number of Na measurements during hospital stay. Results: 46,634 admissions matched inclusion criteria. Incident dysnatremia was independently associated with in-hospital mortality (hyponatremia: HR 3.11, 95% CI 2.53, 3.84, p < 0.001; hypernatremia: HR 5.12, 95% CI 3.94, 6.65, p < 0.001; mixed-dysnatremia: HR 4.94, 95% CI 3.08, 7.92, p < 0.001). We found a higher risk of in-hospital death by linear increase of quartile of Na fluctuation (p trend <0.001) irrespective of severity of dysnatremia (HR 2.34, 95% CI 1.55, 3.54, p < 0.001, for the highest quartile of Na fluctuation compared with the lowest). Conclusions: Incident dysnatremia is associated with higher hospital mortality. Fluctuation of Na during hospital stay is a prognostic marker for hospital death independent of dysnatremia severity.

scholarly journals PREDICTOR BIOMARKERS OF NONELECTIVE HOSPITAL READMISSION AND MORTALITY IN MALNOURISHED HOSPITALIZED OLDER ADULTS

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-6
Author(s):  
K.M. Pencina ◽  
S. Bhasin ◽  
M. Luo ◽  
G.E. Baggs ◽  
S.L. Pereira ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hospital Readmission ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Nutritional Supplement ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Hospitalized Patients ◽  
Direct Care ◽  
Stepwise Selection ◽  
Care Plans ◽  
C Statistic ◽  
Adjusted Model

Background: 90-day mortality and rehospitalizations are important hospital quality metrics. Biomarkers that predict these outcomes among malnourished hospitalized patients could identify those at risk and help direct care plans. Objectives: To identify biomarkers that predict 90-day (primary) and 30-day (secondary) mortality or nonelective rehospitalization. Design and Participants: An analysis of the ability of biomarkers to predict 90- and 30-day mortality and rehospitalization among malnourished hospitalized patients. Setting: 52 blood biomarkers were measured in 193 participants in NOURISH, a randomized trial that determined the effects of a nutritional supplement on 90-day readmission and death in patients >65 years. Composite outcomes were defined as readmission or death over 90-days or 30-days. Univariate Cox Proportional Hazards models were used to select best predictors of outcomes. Markers with the strongest association were included in multivariate stepwise regression. Final model of hospital readmission or death was derived using stepwise selection. Measurements: Nutritional, inflammatory, hormonal and muscle biomarkers. Results: Mean age was 76 years, 51% were men. In univariate models, 10 biomarkers were significantly associated with 90-day outcomes and 4 biomarkers with 30-day outcomes. In multivariate stepwise selection, glutamate, hydroxyproline, tau-methylhistidine levels, and sex were associated with death and readmission within 90-days. In stepwise selection, age-adjusted model that included sex and these 3 amino-acids demonstrated moderate discriminating ability over 90-days (C-statistic 0.68 (95%CI 0.61, 0.75); age-adjusted model that included sex, hydroxyproline and Charlson Comorbidity Index was predictive of 30-day outcomes (C-statistic 0.76 (95%CI 0.68, 0.85). Conclusions: Baseline glutamate, hydroxyproline, and tau-methylhistidine levels, along with sex and age, predict risk of 90-day mortality and nonelective readmission in malnourished hospitalized older patients. This biomarker set should be further validated in prospective studies and could be useful in prognostication of malnourished hospitalized patients and guiding in-hospital care.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document