The Short-Term Economic Consequences of Covid-19: Exposure to Disease, Remote Work and Government Response

International governments’ COVID-19 responses must balance human and economic health. Beyond slowing viral transmission, strict lockdowns have severe economic consequences. This work investigated response stringency, quantified by the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker’s Stringency Index, and examined how restrictive interventions affected infection rates and gross domestic product (GDP) in China and OECD countries. Accounting for response timing, China imposed the most stringent restrictions, while Sweden and Japan were the least stringent. Expected GDP declines range from −8% (Japan) to −15.4% (UK). While greater restrictions generally slowed viral transmission, they failed to reach statistical significance and reduced GDP (p = 0.006). Timing was fundamental: governments who responded to the pandemic faster saw greater reductions in viral transmission (p = 0.013), but worse decreases in GDP (p = 0.044). Thus, response stringency has a greater effect on GDP than infection rates, which are instead affected by the timing of COVID-19 interventions. Attempts to mitigate economic impacts by delaying restrictions or decreasing stringency may buoy GDP in the short term but increase infection rates, the longer-term economic consequences of which are not yet fully understood. As highly restrictive interventions were successful in some but not all countries, decision-makers must consider whether their strategies are appropriate for the country on health and economic grounds.

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The Effect of the Covid-19 Pandemic on Global Armed Conflict: Early Evidence

Political Studies Review ◽

10.1177/1478929920940648 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 147892992094064 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Marius Mehrl ◽

Paul W Thurner

Keyword(s):

Armed Conflict ◽

Economic Consequences ◽

Time Data ◽

Short Term ◽

Regional Heterogeneity ◽

The Caucasus ◽

Windows Of Opportunity ◽

Null Effect ◽

Early Evidence ◽

Opposition Movements

As Covid-19 spreads around the world, international actors, including the United Nations, have called for a stop to armed conflict to facilitate efforts to fight the pandemic. At the same time, coronavirus may also trigger and intensify armed conflict due to its negative economic consequences and by offering windows of opportunity to opposition movements to attack distracted and weakened incumbents. We use real-time data on the spread of Covid-19, governmental lockdown policies, and battle events to study the causal short-term effect of the pandemic on armed conflict. Our results suggest that both the spread of Covid-19 and lockdown policies exhibit a global Null effect with considerable regional heterogeneity. Most importantly, governmental lockdowns have increased armed conflict in the Middle East. In contrast, reported combat has decreased in Southeast Asia and the Caucasus as the pandemic has spread.

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Term of Serbia’s new government will be brief

Emerald Expert Briefings ◽

10.1108/oxan-db257865 ◽

2020 ◽

Keyword(s):

Economic Consequences ◽

Socialist Party ◽

Short Term ◽

National Unity ◽

Content Type ◽

Main Challenge ◽

Almost All

Significance Brnabic’s government, sworn in a month earlier, is being dubbed a government of national unity. It includes almost all parties in the parliament elected in the June elections, which most of Serbia’s opposition boycotted. The main loser was the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS), in turn signalling a loss of Russian influence. Impacts The new government’s main tasks will be dealing with the coronavirus pandemic and its short-term economic consequences. With early elections less than 18 months away, no bold moves or serious reforms should be expected in the interim. Politically, the main challenge for Vucic and the SNS will be to reach a deal to secure opposition participation in the next election.

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Long-term health-related and economic consequences of short-term outcomes in evaluation of perinatal interventions

BMC Pregnancy and Childbirth ◽

10.1186/1471-2393-10-42 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 10 (1) ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Margreet J Teune ◽

Aleid G van Wassenaer ◽

Ben Willem J Mol ◽

Brent C Opmeer

Keyword(s):

Economic Consequences ◽

Short Term ◽

Health Related

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The Political Economy of Trans-Pacific Business Linkages

Business and Politics ◽

10.2202/1469-3569.1083 ◽

2004 ◽

Vol 6 (1) ◽

pp. 1-35 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Witold Henisz

Keyword(s):

Latin American ◽

Political Institutions ◽

Domestic Politics ◽

External Pressure ◽

Economic Consequences ◽

The Political ◽

Short Term ◽

Checks And Balances ◽

Future Evolution ◽

Latin American Countries

The current level and future evolution of trans-Pacific business linkages are tightly linked to domestic politics in Latin American countries. Where the structure of a nation's political institutions offer credible checks and balances against discretionary policymaking, external linkages including those with Pacific partners are stronger. Future liberalization including the formation of an FTAA is more likely when new policymakers arrive in office or when existing policymakers feel strong internal or external pressure to shift the course of their trade policy. A given liberalization is more likely to be sustained when coupled with short-term observable improvement in social and economic indicators. Countries with political institutions that fail to limit policymakers' discretion are particularly sensitive to a failure to demonstrate clear and immediate results. An analysis of the potential of an FTAA to influence trans-Pacific business linkages based on these arguments suggests that adoption is far from certain and that northern and southern countries alike will have to design an agreement with particular attention to social and economic consequences in Latin American countries.

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Short-Term Economic Impact of COVID-19 on Spanish Small Ruminant Flocks

Animals ◽

10.3390/ani10081357 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 10 (8) ◽

pp. 1357 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Irene Vidaurreta ◽

Christian de la Fe ◽

Juan Orengo ◽

Ángel Gómez-Martín ◽

Bernardino Benito

Keyword(s):

Economic Impact ◽

Small Ruminant ◽

Small Ruminants ◽

Economic Consequences ◽

Control Measures ◽

Dairy Goat ◽

Short Term ◽

Using Data ◽

Meat Market

The human pandemic COVID-19 caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) started in China in 2019 and has rapidly spread around the world, leading to extreme control measures such as population confinement and industry activity closure. Although small ruminants are not sanitary affected by this virus, the short-term economic impact derived by COVID-19 on Spanish flocks is estimated in this study, using data provided by producers and two major slaughterhouses. Milk prices of dairy goat flocks suffered a substantial drop in April 2020, close to 4.5 cts EUR/liter compared to the previous month. In contrast, the monthly milk prices in sheep remained almost stable during this period, and even increases of more than EUR 6 cts were reported in comparison with the previous year. Nevertheless, economical differences are reported by areas where producers could receive a higher income, close to EUR 0.3 per liter of milk. Global data provided by feedlots affecting 2750 Spanish flocks evidenced a lamb price drop ranging from 16.8% to 26.9% after the pandemic arrival; in line with the data directly reported by a limited sample of producers (ranging from 11.0% to 23.7%). The goat kid meat market also suffered a reduction in prices per kg, near 12.5%; although, for some flocks, losses reached up to 40%. In the same line, 2 slaughterhouses reported a sudden sacrifice drop around 27% for lambs and goat kids sacrifices in April, in contrast with the usual sacrifice figures from the beginning of 2020. Moreover, our study showed a temporary and unexpected retention of lambs and goat kids at farms due to a reduction in animals slaughtered during this period. In conclusion, data evidenced a considerable negative economic impact on Spanish small ruminant flocks, throughout the first 60 days after COVID-19’s pandemic declaration. Further studies are needed to evaluate the long-term economic consequences, in order to establish contingency plans and avoid the collapse of small ruminant industries when a crisis of these characteristics occurs.

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Impact of initial medication non-adherence on use of healthcare services and sick leave: a longitudinal study in a large primary care cohort in Spain

British Journal of General Practice ◽

10.3399/bjgp17x692129 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 67 (662) ◽

pp. e614-e622 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Ignacio Aznar-Lou ◽

Ana Fernández ◽

Montserrat Gil-Girbau ◽

Ramón Sabés-Figuera ◽

Marta Fajó-Pascual ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Primary Care ◽

Sick Leave ◽

Healthcare Services ◽

Economic Consequences ◽

Short Term ◽

Productivity Losses ◽

Lower Productivity ◽

Clinical Consequences ◽

The Impact ◽

Initial Medication

BackgroundInitial medication non-adherence is highly prevalent in primary care but no previous studies have evaluated its impact on the use of healthcare services and/or days on sick leave.AimTo estimate the impact of initial medication non-adherence on the use of healthcare services, days of sick leave, and costs overall and in specific medication groups.Design and settingA 3-year longitudinal register-based study of all primary care patients (a cohort of 1.7 million) who were prescribed a new medication in Catalonia (Spain) in 2012.MethodThirteen of the most prescribed and/or costly medication subgroups were considered. All medication and medication subgroups (chronic, analgesics, and penicillin) were analysed. The number of healthcare services used and days on sick leave were considered. Multilevel multivariate linear regression was used. Three levels were included: patient, GP, and primary care centre.ResultsInitially adherent patients made more use of medicines and some healthcare services than non-adherent and partially adherent patients. They had lower productivity losses, producing a net economic return, especially when drugs for acute diseases (such as penicillins) were considered. Initial medication non-adherence resulted in a higher economic burden to the system in the short term.ConclusionInitial medication non-adherence seems to have a short-term impact on productivity losses and costs. The clinical consequences and long-term economic consequences of initial medication non-adherence need to be assessed. Interventions to promote initial medication adherence in primary care may reduce costs and improve health outcomes.

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PUBLIC FINANCES OF UKRAINE IN THE CONDITIONS OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC

Market Infrastructure ◽

10.32843/infrastruct53-22 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Olena Prutska

Keyword(s):

Budget Deficit ◽

Developed Countries ◽

Negative Consequences ◽

Short Term ◽

Public Finances ◽

Government Response ◽

Direct Support ◽

Crisis Support ◽

Fiscal Support ◽

Positive Effect

The article presents the results of a study of the world experience of using public finances in the context of the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic and evaluates domestic measures of anti-crisis support of the national economy. It was noted that the volume and forms of financial support depended on the depth of the negative consequences of a pandemic in a country, as well as on the solvency of governments, their reputation as borrowers. Developed countries had the opportunity to approve fiscal support measures for several years, while in developing countries, such measures were short-term. It is emphasized that in these conditions the biggest concern is the growing budget deficit and public debt. The total package of anti-crisis measures of Ukraine, which is estimated at UAH 111.2 billion (2.8% of GDP), is analyzed. It is noted that this package is significantly inferior to the volume of support programs in developed countries, which reached levels ranging from 5-10% of GDP (China, UK, USA) to 18.8% of GDP (Canada) and even 23% of GDP (France). It was noted that despite the fact that the implementation of the "Big Construction" program has become the largest anti-crisis instrument in 2020, which undoubtedly had a positive effect and impact on economic indicators, it should not be considered an anti-crisis measure. This program was planned before the deployment of the COVID-19 pandemic, it is not directly related to the direct support of the population and compensation for business losses, so it cannot be considered a government response to the COVID-19. It is concluded that the expected continuation of the pandemic in 2021 will require governments to pursue policies to support business and households. In these circumstances, the Ukrainian government will be required to increase the volume of anti-crisis measures. At the same time it is necessary to observe prudence and caution in choosing the sources of government borrowing. For the Ukrainian state, this task is complicated by the fact that overcoming the crisis must be carried out in the context of continuing reforms, strengthening the imbalance of public finances, increasing macroeconomic instability.

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Coronavirus pandemic and trends of economic policy

Voprosy Ekonomiki ◽

10.32609/0042-8736-2021-3-5-30 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 5-30

Author(s):

V. A. Mau

Keyword(s):

Economic Policy ◽

Economic Development ◽

Government Regulation ◽

Economic Consequences ◽

Medium Term ◽

Short Term ◽

Current Crisis ◽

Monetary Policies ◽

Long Term Trends

The paper deals with social and economic consequences of COVID-19 in the context of long-term trends of economic development. The current crisis is compared with economic and war cataclysms of 20th—21st centuries. Special attention is paid to types of anti-crisis policies as well as to relations between anti-crisis (short-term) and modernization (medium-term) challenges. The paper discusses the influence of pandemic on budget and monetary policies, trends of globalization, and new approaches to government regulation of economic development.

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“I Think It’ll All Blow Over in the End”: How Young People Perceive the Impact of COVID-19 on Their Future Orientations

10.31234/osf.io/t3zsq ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Juul Henkens ◽

Kirsten Visser ◽

Catrin Finkenauer ◽

Sander Tim Vermeulen ◽

gonneke stevens

Keyword(s):

Young People ◽

Economic Consequences ◽

Short Term ◽

The World ◽

Future Orientations ◽

The Impact

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak has changed the lives of young people all around the world drastically. Because young people’s future orientations are shaped by current experiences, COVID-19 and its social and economic consequences may impact young people’s future orientations. This study explored whether and how COVID-19 has affected young people’s future orientations by means of interviews with 71 Dutch young people with different sociodemographic backgrounds (37 before and 34 during the first months of COVID-19). Results revealed that young people felt COVID-19 had hardly any impact on their future orientations. In line with this, young people’s future orientations before and during COVID-19 were similar and hardly any of the participants mentioned COVID-19 spontaneously during the interview. A few young people indicated that they experienced some impact of COVID-19 on their current lives, short-term futures, or on the societal future in general. Young people’s idea that COVID-19 is temporary, the disconnect between the general future and their personal futures, and their flexible attitudes may partly explain why they did not feel their futures would be affected by COVID-19.

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