scholarly journals Stock price volatility during the COVID-19 pandemic: The GARCH model

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 12-20
Author(s):  
Endri Endri ◽  
Widya Aipama ◽  
A. Razak ◽  
Laynita Sari ◽  
Renil Septiano
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Practical Implication ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Garch Model ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Stock Price Volatility ◽  
The Garch Model

This study examined the response of stock prices on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) to COVID-19 using an event study approach and the GARCH model. The research sample is the closing price of the Composite Stock Price Index (JCI) and companies that are members of LQ-45 in the 40-day period before the COVID-19 incident, 1 day during the COVID-19 incident (March 2, 2020) and 10 days after, January 6, 2020 – March 16, 2020. Empirical findings prove that abnormal returns react negatively to COVID-19, JCI volatility fluctuates widely during the COVID-19 event, and the GARCH(1,2) model can be used to assess volatility and predict stock abnormal returns in IDX in market conditions infected with COVID-19. The practical implication of the study’s findings for investors is that the COVID-19 event caused stock price volatility, which affects abnormal returns. Therefore, to face the conditions of uncertainty and increased volatility in the future, several lines of risk management are needed in managing a stock portfolio. In addition, it also opens up opportunities for speculators to profit in an inefficient market environment. This study is based on the empirical literature currently being developed to investigate the phenomenon of stock price volatility behavior during COVID-19 on the IDX. The GARCH model used proves that during the COVID-19 pandemic, stock price volatility increases and leads to a decrease in abnormal returns. The empirical findings also validate the efficient market hypothesis theory related to the study of events and the theory of financial behavior related to uncertainty.

scholarly journals Pengaruh Pengumuman Kebijakan Dividen terhadap Volatilitas Harga Saham

Eksos ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 85-94
Author(s):  
Yani Riyani
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Dividend Policy ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Simple Linear Regression ◽  
Stock Price Volatility ◽  
Dividend Signaling ◽  
Before And After

This study aims to determine the effect of dividend policy announcements on stock price volatility. This research is an event study, with a period of observation 10 days before and after dividend announcement. According to the purposive sampling of 30 companies incorporated in the JII there are 20 companies that meet the criteria to be sampled. The variable used in this study is dividend policy announcements which are proxied by abnormal returns and stock price volatility. By using simple linear regression analysis, the results of the study found that the dividend announcement policy affects the volatility of stock prices. This means that dividend policy announcements contain information that causes shares to react. The results of this study are consistent with the dividend signaling theory which states that dividend policy announcements contain information that can cause stock prices to react.

An Empirical Study on Efficient Market Hypothesis with reference to FMCG Sector

GIS Business ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 109-126
Author(s):  
Nitin Tanted ◽  
Prashant Mistry
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Controversial Issues ◽  
Efficient Market ◽  
Price Movements ◽  
Run Test ◽  
Stock Price Movements

One of the highly controversial issues in the area of finance is “Efficient Market Hypothesis”. Efficient Market Hypothesis states that, “In an efficient market, all available price information is reflected in the stock prices and it is not possible to generate abnormal returns compared to other investors.” A lot of studies conducted previouslyto test the Efficient Market Hypothesis, confirmed the theory until recent years, when some academicians found it to be non-applicable in financial markets. According to them, it is possible to forecast the stock price movements using Technical Analysis. The results of various studies have been inconclusive and indefinite about the issue. This study attempted to test the efficiency of FMCG Sector stocks in India in its weak form. For the study, closing prices of top 10 stocks from Nifty FMCG index has been taken for the 5-year period ranging from 1st October 2014 to 30th September 2019. Wald-Wolfowitz Run test has been used to test the haphazard movements in the stock price movements. The results indicated that FMCG sector stocks does support the Efficient Market Hypothesis and exhibit efficiency in its weak form. Hence, it is not possible to accurately predict the price movements of these stocks.

scholarly journals Stock Market Reaction to COVID-19: Evidence in Customer Goods Sector with the Implication for Open Innovation

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 99
Author(s):  
Zaky Machmuddah ◽  
St. Dwiarso Utomo ◽  
Entot Suhartono ◽  
Shujahat Ali ◽  
Wajahat Ali Ghulam
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Practical Implication ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Observation Data ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Long Term Impact

The coronavirus pandemic has spread all over the world, affecting both the health and economic sectors. The aim of this research was to observe stock prices of customer goods before and after the COVID-19 pandemic using event study and the comparison test. The sample included data of daily closing stock prices and volume of stock trade during the three months before (−90 days) and after (+90 days) the occurrence of the COVID-19 pandemic ongoing, totaling 2670 observation data both before and after the COVID-19 pandemic, for a total of 5340. The research findings indicate a significant difference between the daily closing stock price and volume of stock trade before and after the COVID-19 pandemic. The current research has both theoretical and practical implications: the findings strengthen the efficient market hypothesis, which states that the more complete the provided information, the more efficient the market. The practical implication is that investors should be careful when choosing to invest. Investors should choose customer goods sector companies that provide products that are much needed by customers, for example, pharmacy, food, beverages, etc. Future research is needed to investigate the long-term impact of the pandemic on the economy.

scholarly journals LISTING OF SHARES OF SOME COMMERCIAL BANKS AND FINANCIAL SERVICES COMPANIES IN POLAND

2018 ◽  
pp. 43-51
Author(s):  
Sławomir Juszczyk
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Financial Services ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Strongly Correlated ◽  
Stock Price Volatility ◽  
Warsaw Stock Exchange

The purpose of the research was to identify the volatilities of daily quotes of banks and financial services companies listed on Warsaw Stock Exchange in the six-year period ie 2011-2016. It was found that the volatility of the stock price of the eCard was the strongest correlated with BPH stock price volatility, while the volatility of KREDYTIN stock prices was strongly correlated with the volatility of BZ WBK shares, ING and PKO BP. The strongest correlation between the stock prices of banks and the surveyed financial services companies was on the day of their listing. Unlike banks, financial services companies are highly diversified.

scholarly journals Interaction between Industrial Policy and Stock Price Volatility：Evidence from China’s Power Market Reform

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ye Fan ◽  
Zhicheng Zhang ◽  
Xiaoli Zhao ◽  
Haitao Yin
Keyword(s):  
Industrial Policy ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Power Market ◽  
Green Energy ◽  
Market Reform ◽  
Stock Price Volatility ◽  
Price Fluctuations ◽  
The Impact

China combines green energy and industrial policy in its power market reform with various policy initiatives, including price support scheme for electricity from renewable sources and subsidies in the push for broader use of greener energy. This study focuses on the impacts of power market reform on the stock price volatility of listed power companies: 1) we use the Iterative Cumulative Sums of Squares (ICSS) algorithm to identify structural break points in stock prices; 2) we analyze the characteristics of stock price volatility based on the GARCH model; 3) we report the impact of power regulation on stock price fluctuations based on the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The result suggests three structural breaks in China’s power stock price volatility were related to the promulgation of power market reform policies. We find that industrial policies promote the reduction of power stock price fluctuations and its impact on power stock price volatility is consistent in the long run. However, our study also indicates the recent policies related to renewable energy do not have a very significant impact on the power stock market.

scholarly journals Impact of Interest Rate on Stock Prices Volatility: A Case of Textile Sector of Karachi Stock Exchange

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 149-156
Author(s):  
MUHAMMAD SOHAIL KHALIL ◽  
MUHAMMAD AAMIR NADEEM ◽  
MUHAMMAD TAHIR KHAN
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Stock Price Volatility ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Textile Sector

This study investigates the relationship between interest rate and stock price volatility in textile sector of Karachi Stock Exchange. Initially, EWMA model is used to calculate the volatility of stock prices. Stock returns are calculated as a proxy to stock prices. Afterwards, linear regression analyzes the relation between interest rate and stock price volatility. The significance F change is below the limit of 0.05 showing goodness-to-fit of the model to project the responses from predictor to be reliable. The research concludes the relationship of interest rate with volatility of stock prices as slightly inverse in nature.

scholarly journals FAKTOR PENENTU BID-ASK SPREAD SAHAM LQ45

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 43-54
Author(s):  
Sabna Ainazah Fatikhah ◽  
Siti Puryandani
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Trading Volume ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Company Size ◽  
Stock Price Volatility ◽  
Company Stock ◽  
Bid Ask Spread

Investors always use various information to get the maximum profit in investment activities. One such information is the bid-ask spread. This study aims to determine the effect of company size, stock prices, stock price volatility and trading volume on the bid-ask spread of companies listed in the LQ45 index in the period 2015 to 2018. A total of 14 companies were taken as a purposive sampling sample in order to obtain 56 observational data. The analytical method used in this study is the method of multiple linear regression analysis. The results showed that stock prices and stock price volatility affect the bid-ask spread. While company size and trading volume do not affect bid-ask spread. Investors can consider the size of the company, stock prices, stock price volatility, and trading volume to avoid high spreads and get profit in the future.

scholarly journals DPR Sebagai Pemediasi Antara CAONS, DTAR, Dan GCG Pada Harga Saham

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 202-224
Author(s):  
Ainun Jariah
Keyword(s):  
Path Analysis ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Share Price ◽  
Stock Price Volatility ◽  
Research Results ◽  
Share Prices ◽  
Dividend Policies

The company's performance projections are the focus of investors, especially investment decisions, funding decisions, and dividend policies, plus GCG which contribute to stock price volatility. The purpose of his research to detect the influence of CAONS, DTAR, and GCG individually and simultaneously on DPR and share prices, with DPR as a mediator. The number of samples 37 industry company registered on the BEI during 5 years since 2012. Analysis of data is path analysis and sobel tests for mediation variables. The research results explain that partially DTAR and GCG have a significant effect on DPR. but the share prices all three variables have no significant impact . Simultaneously CAONS, DTAR, and GCG have a significant impact on DPR and than no significant on share price. DPR has an effect and significant on share prices. Partially and simultaneously CAONS, DTAR, and GCG have no relationship to stock prices through DPR, and DPR is only able to mediate CAONS to stock prices. Keyword: CAONS, DTAR, GCG, DPR, and Stock Prices.

scholarly journals Pengaruh Volume Perdagangan Saham, Volatilitas Laba, Dividend Yield, dan Ukuran Perusahaan Pada Volatilitas Harga Saham

2018 ◽  
pp. 2148
Author(s):  
Ni Wayan Sekar Andiani ◽  
Gayatri Gayatri
Keyword(s):  
Firm Size ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Trading Volume ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Dividend Yield ◽  
Stock Trading ◽  
Stock Price Volatility

This study aims to obtain empirical evidence on the effect of stock trading volume, earning volatility, dividend yield, and firm size on stock price volatility. This research was conducted on companies listed in index LQ 45 in Indonesia Stock Exchange 2012 until 2016. This research took the population of 45 companies with the number of samples of 21 companies selected through purposive sampling, so the number of samples observation for 5 years to 105 companies. The analysis technique in this research is multiple linear regression analysis. Based on the analysis results found that the stock trading volume does not affect the stock price volatility. Earning volatility has a negative effect on stock price volatility. This shows the higher volatility of profits owned by the company tends to reduce the interest of investors to invest or can reduce the volatility of stock prices. Dividend yield has a positive effect on stock price volatility. Which means that the higher dividend rate can affect the high investor interest to invest in the capital market, causing a stock price reaction. The firm size has a negative affects on stock price volatility. This proves the greater the size of the company indicates a stable corporate condition and able to reduce the volatility of stock prices. Keywords: Stock Trading Volume, Earning Volatility, Dividend Yield, Firm Size, Stock Price Volatility.

scholarly journals Earnings Surprise, Portfolio Inertia and Stock Price Volatility

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 301-320
Author(s):  
Shunwu Huang ◽  
Wang Chang ◽  
Lan Zheng
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Institutional Investors ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Mediation Effect ◽  
Stock Price Volatility ◽  
Earnings Surprise ◽  
The Relationship

AbstractFrom the perspective of the mediation effect, this paper investigates whether institutional investors adjust their portfolios according to the listed companies earnings surprise. We find that the portfolio adjustments by institutional investors exert the mediation effect on the relationship between earnings surprise and stock price volatility. Institutional investors actively manage their portfolios in the rising market, which induces the stock price volatility; while they less adjust their portfolio in the falling market, the volatility declines. This paper helps understand the role of institutional investors in the fluctuation of stock prices, and provides a new basis for decision making of regulatory administration.

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