Lost in calibration: why people still do not calibrate their models, and why they still should – a case study from urban drainage modelling

2016 ◽  
Vol 74 (10) ◽  
pp. 2337-2348 ◽  
Author(s):  
Franz Tscheikner-Gratl ◽  
Peter Zeisl ◽  
Carolina Kinzel ◽  
Johannes Leimgruber ◽  
Thomas Ertl ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Model Calibration ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Engineering Practice ◽  
Storm Events ◽  
Large Cities ◽  
Design Storm ◽  
Actual Design ◽  
Design Values ◽  
The Impact

From a scientific point of view, it is unquestioned that numerical models for technical systems need to be calibrated. However, in sufficiently calibrated models are still used in engineering practice. Case studies in the scientific literature that deal with urban water management are mostly large cities, while little attention is paid to the differing boundary conditions of smaller municipalities. Consequently, the aim of this paper is to discuss the calibration of a hydrodynamic model of a small municipality (15,000 inhabitants). To represent the spatial distribution of precipitation, three distributed rain gauges were used for model calibration. To show the uncertainties imminent to the calibration process, 17 scenarios, differing in assumptions for calibration, were distinguished. To compare the impact of the different calibration scenarios on actual design values, design rainfall events were applied. The comparison of the model results using the different typical design storm events from all the surrounding data points showed substantial differences for the assessment of the sewers regarding urban flooding, emphasizing the necessity of uncertainty analysis for hydrodynamic models. Furthermore, model calibration is of the utmost importance, because uncalibrated models tend to overestimate flooding volume and therefore result in larger diameters and retention volumes.

Critical review of the evolution of the design storm event concept

2013 ◽  
Vol 40 (2) ◽  
pp. 105-113 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ed Watt ◽  
Jiri Marsalek
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Critical Review ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Reduction Factor ◽  
Engineering Practice ◽  
Storm Event ◽  
Storm Events ◽  
Design Storm ◽  
Antecedent Moisture

A critical review of the literature and practice indicates that design storm events, which have been used in specific fields of Canadian and US engineering practice for more than 100 years, can be ascribed to six basic attributes: (a) design return period, (b) storm duration, (c) intensity–duration–frequency (idf) relations (representing a summary of historical rainfall data, with some extrapolation for longer return periods), (d) temporal distribution (design hyetograph), (e) areal reduction factor, and (f) antecedent moisture conditions. Concerns about climate change (or variability) and the need to adapt to the associated climatic conditions prompted many agencies, and particularly municipalities, to revisit the design storm event issue, particularly in connection with drainage design. It would appear that this analysis has mostly focused on a single property of design storms — idf relations and projected increases in rainfall intensities. The review concludes that the design practice would be well served by adopting a comprehensive approach considering all design storm event characteristics and their sensitivity to climate change and inherent uncertainties in the existing idf relations as well as hydraulic design of sewer networks.

scholarly journals Structural Response and Stochastic Impact Modeling

2018 ◽  
Vol 183 ◽  
pp. 01050
Author(s):  
Renata Troian ◽  
Manel Dallali ◽  
Didier Lemosse ◽  
Leila Khalij
Keyword(s):  
Structural Model ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Structural Response ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Structural Behavior ◽  
Beam Model ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Extreme Sensitivity ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Bernoulli Beam Model

The problem of the vulnerability of structures facing explosions came to the front line of the scientific scene in the last decades. Uncertainty of the environmental conditions and material properties have to be taken into account. The corresponding numerical models are very complex and depend on numerous parameters. Consequently, such models are cursed with issues which limit their use for real applications. Most of the existing approaches are based on a deterministic point of view, and are not able to represent the extreme sensitivity of a model towards uncertain parameters. That is why the uncertainty analysis is needed. The proposed research is devoted to the analysis of a structural behavior under an uncertain impact loading. Elasto-plastic Bernoulli beam model is used as structural model for the case simplicity, while the different formulation for impact itself are studied to simulate the wide range of possible types of impact. Model sensitivity is studied first. The influence of input parameters on structural behavior, that are the impact force, duration and position, as well as beam material are then considered. The obtained insights can provide the guidelines for modeling the structure under the explosive loading taking into account the uncertainties.

scholarly journals Experimental and Numerical Assessment of Supporting Road Signs Masts Family for Compliance with the Standard EN 12767

Materials ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (20) ◽  
pp. 5999
Author(s):  
Michał Stopel ◽  
Artur Cichański ◽  
Nathalie Yague ◽  
Grzegorz Kończalski
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Models ◽  
Product Family ◽  
Experimental Tests ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Passive Safety ◽  
Road Signs ◽  
Numerical Assessment ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Crash Tests

The analysis aimed to assess the passive safety of supporting masts for road signs in accordance with EN 12767. Experimental tests were carried out based on the requirements of the standard for the smallest and the largest constructions within the product family. Numerical models of crash tests were prepared for whole product family using the Finite Element Method in the LS-Dyna environment. Based on the comparison of the experimental tests and the numerical calculations, the usefulness of the numerical model for estimating the actual value of the Acceleration Severity Index (ASI) and the Theoretical Head Impact Velocity (THIV) was assessed. With the use of these relationships the values of ASI and THIV for masts not tested experimentally were estimated. It was confirmed that the analyzed masts met the requirements for the passive safety of structures set out in the standard EN 12767. It was possible since as a result of the impact, the mast column detached from the base, allowing the vehicle to continue moving. The behavior of the masts was primarily influenced by the destruction of the safety connectors. The paper presents the most important elements from the point of view of designing such solutions.

Reverse Engineering of Experimental Tests Results of Ballistic Impact for the Validation of Finite Element Simulations

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea Manes ◽  
Grazia Magrassi ◽  
Marco Giglio ◽  
Monica Bordegoni
Keyword(s):  
Finite Element ◽  
Reverse Engineering ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Experimental Tests ◽  
Engineering Practice ◽  
Explicit Finite Element ◽  
3D Acquisition ◽  
Set Up ◽  
The Impact

In this paper the set up and the carrying out of experimental ballistic tests on a tail rotor transmission shafts for helicopter, which are impacted by a 7.62 NATO projectile, are presented. After the tests, a 3D acquisition of the impacted area on each shaft has been performed in order to acquire exactly the shape of the damage. The acquisition has been carried out with a 3D range camera. The experimental activities have been compared with the results of a numerical simulation of the impact, which has been computed with an explicit finite element code. The direct comparison has been done by superimposing the two meshes (from FE analysis and from 3D acquisition). This method has proved to be effective for identifying analogies and differences and for giving the possibility to promote a “quantitative” discussion with the aim of improving the accuracy of the numerical models and simulation conditions. The adoption of the Reverse Engineering practice has proved to be a powerful method for integrating and comparing the simulation data with real data, and give suggestions to further analysis.

scholarly journals The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Independent Creative Activities in Two Large Cities in Romania

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (14) ◽  
pp. 7674
Author(s):  
Nicolae Popa ◽  
Ana-Maria Pop ◽  
Alexandra-Camelia Marian-Potra ◽  
Pompei Cocean ◽  
Gheorghe-Gavrilă Hognogi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Creative Industries ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Social Resilience ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
Large Cities ◽  
Entrepreneurial Spirit ◽  
Taking Action ◽  
The Impact

The COVID-19 pandemic has had both financial and activity-related effects on a number of areas of activity, among which those involving the creative industries have proved to be weak in their capacity to survive the halting of all events held in physical spaces. The long-term effects of the current health crisis are bringing about changes in cultural demand and offer and highlighting the need to adapt and to think of new ways of functioning. Taking its cue from this situation, the research underlying our article set out to investigate the ways in which Romania’s independent creative sector is adapting. We achieved this by means of conducting 25 semi-structured interviews and undertaking case studies of two cities that are among the most effervescent from the point of view of cultural and creative industries, Timișoara and Cluj-Napoca. With the strengthening of this sector as the aim in view, the forms of early social resilience we identified are capable in the short term of taking action to ensure the survival of some of the spaces; in the medium term, through activating mechanisms that encourage entrepreneurial spirit, they will be able to adapt to any external shock.

The Geosciences Applied to Lunar Exploration

1962 ◽  
Vol 14 ◽  
pp. 169-257 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Green
Keyword(s):  
Lunar Surface ◽  
Probable Mechanism ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Lunar Exploration ◽  
Geological Model ◽  
Apply Geophysics ◽  
Surface Features ◽  
The Impact

The term geo-sciences has been used here to include the disciplines geology, geophysics and geochemistry. However, in order to apply geophysics and geochemistry effectively one must begin with a geological model. Therefore, the science of geology should be used as the basis for lunar exploration. From an astronomical point of view, a lunar terrain heavily impacted with meteors appears the more reasonable; although from a geological standpoint, volcanism seems the more probable mechanism. A surface liberally marked with volcanic features has been advocated by such geologists as Bülow, Dana, Suess, von Wolff, Shaler, Spurr, and Kuno. In this paper, both the impact and volcanic hypotheses are considered in the application of the geo-sciences to manned lunar exploration. However, more emphasis is placed on the volcanic, or more correctly the defluidization, hypothesis to account for lunar surface features.

МАРКЕТИНГОВІ АСПЕКТИ ФУНКЦІОНУВАННЯ ЛІТЕРАТУРНИХ КОНКУРСІВ ТА ПРЕМІЙ

2020 ◽  
pp. 90
Author(s):  
O. Bondar
Keyword(s):  
Publishing House ◽  
Target Audience ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Information Support ◽  
Literary Field ◽  
Non Profit ◽  
Functional Aspects ◽  
The Media ◽  
Literary Prizes ◽  
The Impact

<p><em>In this study, I have collected and summarized the functional aspects of a literary prize, contest, and rating, which indicate their affiliation with the marketing complex of the publishing house for the first time. For this purpose, I have analyzed and summarized the common concepts of the functioning of literary prizes and contests as advertising tools for publishing activity. Because the previous studies are only focused on the fact of the impact of the prize on the promotion of editions but do not explain it, these aspects have been considered and introduced by me from the book production’s point of view. I investigated that the prizes and the contests in the literary field are effective marketing tools, which meet many publisher’s needs at the same time and can be considered a non-profit form of capital. I have reviewed the works of other authors, who accept that the economic success of the book is rising if the author is a winner of the literary prize or contest. I have found out that the book prize activates the demand for the book, and the literary contest is a tool to track the reader’s reaction to a future publication. In this way, literary prizes and contests can be considered as a way of conducting a marketing dialogue with the target audience. I have focused on the information support of literary national and international prizes and contests by the media, which attracts attention to the book and forms the reader’s interest. The literary prizes and contests are also considered as a way of exploring trends and their changes, familiarization the popular genres among the target audience and fixation the current choice of modern readers. Literary prizes and contests motivate the authors to improve their literary excellence, are the source of new authors and works, and assist in increasing sales of books. However, further research is recommended.</em></p><strong><em>Key words:</em></strong><em> book prize, book rating, literary contest, literary prize, functions of the literary prizes.</em>

On the Impact of Aptness, Conventionality and Familiarity on Metaphor Processing from a Meta-analytical Point of View

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 55-106
Author(s):  
Csilla Rákosi
Keyword(s):  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Psycholinguistic Research ◽  
Analytical Point ◽  
Metaphor Processing ◽  
The Impact

Psycholinguistic research into metaphor processing is burdened with empirical problems as experiments provide diverging evidence on the impact of conventionality, familiarity and aptness, and with conceptual issues as the interpretation and operationalization of the three concepts mentioned, as well as the related predictions which can be drawn from theories of metaphor processing, are controversial in the literature. This paper uses tools of statistical meta-analysis in order to bring us closer to the solution of these problems and reveal future lines of research.

Wacana Kolonial dalam Novel Max Havelaar: Sebuah Kajian Poskolonial

Metahumaniora ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 411
Author(s):  
Abu Bakar Ramadhan Muhamad
Keyword(s):  
Point Of View ◽  
The Other ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Colonial Discourse ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Voice

AbstrakHegemoni kolonialisme dalam budaya poskolonial merupakan alasan penelitian inikemudian mengkaji wacana kolonial dalam novel Max Havellar (MH) khususnya dampakditimbulkannya. Dampak dimaksud adalah posisi keberpihakan pemikiran tersirat darikarya tersebut. Hasil pembahasan menunjukkan, secara temporal maupun permanen MHmenyuarakan ketidakadilan dalam kondisi-kondisi kolonial menyangkut penindasan sangpenjajah terhadap terjajah. Hanya saja, upaya mengatasnamakan atau mewakili suarakaum terjajah terbukti mengimplikasikan ciri ideologis statis kerangka kolonialisme(orientalisme); yakni cara pandang Eropasentris, di mana “Barat” sebagai self adalah superior,dan “Timur” sebagai other adalah inferior. Dalam konteks poskolonialisme, MH dengan sifatkritisnya yang berupaya “menyuarakan” nasib pribumi terjajah, justru menampilkan stigmapenguatan kolonialitas itu sendiri secara hegemonik. Artinya, “menyuarakan” nasib pribumidimaknai sebagai keberpihankan kolonial yang kontradiktif, di mana stigma penguatankolonialitas justru lebih terasa, ujung-ujungnya melanggengkan hegemoni kolonial. Tidakmembela yang terjajah, tetapi memperhalus cara kerja mesin kolonial.AbstractThe hegemony of colonialism in the culture of postcolonial society is the reason this studythen examines the colonial discourse in the novel Max Havellar (MH) in particular the impactit brings. The impact in question is the implied position of thought in the work. The resultsof the discussion show that, temporarily or permanently, MH voiced injustice in the colonialconditions regarding the oppression of the colonist against the colonized. However, the effort toname or represent the voice of the colonized has proven to imply a static ideological characterin the framework of colonialism (orientalism); ie Eropacentric point of view, in which “West” asself is superior, and “East” as the other is the inferior. In the context of postcolonialism, MH withits critical nature that seeks to “voice” the fate of the colonized natives, actually presents thestigma of strengthening coloniality itself hegemonicly. That is, “voicing” the fate of the pribumiis interpreted as a contradictory colonial flare, where the stigma of strengthening colonialityis more pronounced, which ultimately perpetuates the hegemony of colonialism. No longerdefending the colonized, but refining the workings of the colonial machinery.

The Analyses of Learning Strategies in English as a Second Language: Theoretical Classification and Measurement Test

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 118-129
Author(s):  
Asti Gumartifa ◽  
◽  
Indah Windra Dwie Agustiani
Keyword(s):  
Language Learning ◽  
Learning Outcomes ◽  
Learning Strategies ◽  
Learning Process ◽  
English Learners ◽  
English Language ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Effective Learning ◽  
The Impact

Gaining English language learning effectively has been discussed all years long. Similarly, Learners have various troubles outcomes in the learning process. Creating a joyful and comfortable situation must be considered by learners. Thus, the implementation of effective learning strategies is certainly necessary for English learners. This descriptive study has two purposes: first, to introduce the classification and characterization of learning strategies such as; memory, cognitive, metacognitive, compensation, social, and affective strategies that are used by learners in the classroom and second, it provides some questionnaires item based on Strategy of Inventory for Language Learning (SILL) version 5.0 that can be used to examine the frequency of students’ learning strategies in the learning process. The summary of this study explains and discusses the researchers’ point of view on the impact of learning outcomes by learning strategies used. Finally, utilizing appropriate learning strategies are certainly beneficial for both teachers and learners to achieve the learning target effectively.

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