scholarly journals Analysis of Average Temperatures And Trends In Brazil: Applying CUSUM Graphic from 2000 to 2014

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 169-184
Author(s):  
Leonardo Rodrigues de Oliveira Merelles ◽  
Viviane de Souza Dias ◽  
José Elmo de Menezes ◽  
Marta Pereira da Luz ◽  
Ricardo Luiz Machado ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cluster Analysis ◽  
Multiple Regression ◽  
Cumulative Sum ◽  
Temperature Changes ◽  
The North ◽  
Temperature Trends ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
In Series ◽  
Weather Stations ◽  
Annual Trends

In recent decades the temperature trends are being confirmed earlier. To determine the temperature changes in Brazil, analysis of annual trends and seasons was carried out based on daily data from 187 weather stations, covering the period from 2000 to 2014. Trends were confirmed using the Cumulative Sum Chart, a method that notices the changes in series faster than others. The modeling of temperature was obtained by Multiple Regression and using Cluster Analysis, and through this it was possible to group weather stations. The observed trends confirmed oscillations in cooling, heating and, in some cases, cooling followed by heating. These main trends presented during the study period were from -15 to 0 in latitude. The region with the highest confirmation of inversions in temperature was the North, then Northeast. Heights below 500 meters presented higher trends. Regarding the seasons, autumn contributed significantly to the trends.

Recent changes in temperature extremes across the north-eastern region of Italy and their relationship with large-scale circulation

2020 ◽  
Vol 81 ◽  
pp. 167-185
Author(s):  
M Di Bacco ◽  
AR Scorzini
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Temperature Extremes ◽  
Eastern Region ◽  
Large Scale Circulation ◽  
The North ◽  
Temperature Trends ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
North Eastern ◽  
Induced Changes ◽  
The Impact

The present study is an analysis of recent changes (1981-2016) in air temperature across the north-eastern region of Italy (NERI), located in a transition zone influenced by the Mediterranean and continental climatological regimes. Annual and seasonal trends in mean maximum and minimum temperatures as well as in selected extreme indices are investigated using high-quality and homogenised daily data deriving from a distributed network of 50 weather stations. The results reveal an overall widespread warming, particularly intense in spring and summer, with significant positive trends in mean and daytime (maximum-related) temperature extremes, especially at lower altitudes. No substantial elevation dependency is observed for trends in minimum-related temperature indices, which are generally characterised by lower spatial variability. Comparable positive and negative trends are identified in the frequency and duration of warm- and cold-related extremes indices. Finally, the influence on temperature extremes of dominant large-scale circulation modes in southern Europe (North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO] and East-Atlantic [EA] pattern) is examined. The results indicate that especially NAO-induced changes can explain observed temperature trends over the NERI, while the impact of the EA pattern is slightly weaker.

scholarly journals Warming in Europe: Recent Trends in Annual and Seasonal temperatures

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Twardosz ◽  
Adam Walanus ◽  
Izabela Guzik
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Economic ◽  
Seasonal Temperature ◽  
Temperature Changes ◽  
North East ◽  
The North ◽  
South West ◽  
Strong Gradient ◽  
Recent Trends ◽  
Weather Stations ◽  
Contemporary Climate

AbstractContemporary climate warming is a key problem faced not only by scientists, but also all by humanity because, as is shown by the experience of recent years, it has multiple environmental, economic and biometeorological implications. In this paper, the authors identify the magnitude of annual and seasonal temperature changes in Europe and its immediate surroundings on the basis of data from 210 weather stations from 1951 to 2020. An analysis of temperatures in the 70-year period shows that air temperature has continued to grow linearly in Europe since 1985. The rate of temperature rise in three seasons of the year, namely winter, spring and summer, does not differ greatly. The highest growth over the 1985–2020 timespan was recorded in spring and the lowest in autumn—0.061 °C/year and 0.045 °C/year, respectively. In winter, the rise in temperature should be considered the least steady, as opposed to the summer when it displays the greatest stability. Overall, the warming intensifies towards the north-east of the continent. Such a strong gradient of change is especially perceivable in winter and spring, and is also marked in autumn. The opposite is true in summer, when it increases towards the south and south-west.

scholarly journals Quantitative reconstruction of precipitation changes in the Iberian Peninsula during the Late Pleistocene and the Holocene

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liisa Ilvonen ◽  
José Antonio López-Sáez ◽  
Lasse Holmström ◽  
Francisca Alba-Sánchez ◽  
Sebastián Pérez-Díaz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
Late Pleistocene ◽  
Late Holocene ◽  
Calibration Model ◽  
Temperature Changes ◽  
The North ◽  
Temperature Trends ◽  
Precipitation Increase ◽  
Precipitation Changes ◽  
Reconstructed Precipitation

Abstract. Precipitation is a key climate driver of vegetation and ecosystems of the Iberian Peninsula. Here, we use a regional pollen-climate calibration model and fossil pollen data from seven sites from different parts of Spain to provide quantitative reconstructions of annual precipitation values for the last 15 000 years. Our records show that in the Late Pleistocene (~ 15 000 to 11 600 cal yr BP) precipitation changes took place markedly in tune with the temperature trends in northern Europe, with higher precipitation during the Greenland interstadial 1 (Bølling-Allerød) and lower precipitation during the Greenland stadial 1 (Younger Dryas). The early Holocene was characterized by a rapid precipitation increase after 11 600 cal yr BP, followed by a slowly declining trend until roughly 8000 cal yr BP. From 8000 to 4000 cal yr BP the reconstructed precipitation values are the highest in most records, with maximum values nearly 100 % higher that the modern reconstructed values. The results suggest a gradually declining precipitation over the last four millennia, although the late-Holocene reconstructions are biased by intensifying human impact on vegetation. In general, our results suggest that the main changes in precipitation in the Iberian Peninsula have occurred in pace with the main temperature changes in the North European-Atlantic region, with warm (cold) periods in the North corresponding with humid (dry) periods in the Iberian Peninsula.

The twentieth century contiguous US temperature changes indicated by daily data and higher statistical moments

2011 ◽  
Vol 109 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 287-317 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samuel S. P. Shen ◽  
Ai B. Gurung ◽  
Hee-S. Oh ◽  
T. Shu ◽  
David R. Easterling
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Statistical Moments ◽  
Temperature Changes ◽  
Daily Data

Climatology and Trends of Climate Extremes of Temperature and Precipitation in Belo Monte Hydropower Plant – Eastern Amazon, Brazil

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wanderson Luiz-Silva ◽  
Pedro Regoto ◽  
Camila Ferreira de Vasconcellos ◽  
Felipe Bevilaqua Foldes Guimarães ◽  
Katia Cristina Garcia
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
The South ◽  
North Central ◽  
Adaptation Capacity ◽  
The North ◽  
South Central ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Belo Monte

<p>This research aims to support studies related to the adaptation capacity of the Amazon region to climate change. The Belo Monte Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP) is in the Xingu River basin, in eastern Amazonia. Deforestation coupled with changes in water bodies that occurred in the drainage area of Belo Monte HPP over the past few decades can significantly influence the hydroclimatic features and, consequently, ecosystems and energy generation in the region. In this context, we analyze the climatology and trends of climate extremes in this area. The climate information comes from daily data in grid points of 0.25° x 0.25° for the period 1980-2013, available in http://careyking.com/data-downloads/. A set of 17 climate extremes indices based on daily data of maximum temperature (TX), minimum temperature (TN), and precipitation (PRCP) was calculated through the RClimDex software, recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The Mann-Kendall and the Sen’s Curvature tests are used to assess the statistical significance and the magnitude of the trends, respectively. The drainage area of the Belo Monte HPP is dominated by two climatic types: an equatorial climate in the north-central portion of the basin, with high temperatures and little variation throughout the year (22°C to 32°C), in addition to more frequent precipitation; and a tropical climate in the south-central sector, which experiences slightly more pronounced temperature variations throughout the year (20°C to 33°C) and presents a more defined wet and dry periods. The south-central portion of the basin exhibits the highest temperature extremes, with the highest TX and the lowest TN of the year occurring in this area, both due to the predominant days of clear skies in the austral winter, as to the advance of intense masses of polar air at this period. The diurnal temperature range is lower in the north-central sector when compared to that in the south-central region since the first has greater cloud cover and a higher frequency of precipitation. The largest annual rainfall volumes are concentrated at the north and west sides (more than 1,800 mm) and the precipitation extremes are heterogeneous across the basin. The maximum number of consecutive dry days increases from the north (10 to 20 days) to the south (90 to 100 days). The annual frequency of warm days and nights is increasing significantly in a large part of the basin with a magnitude ranging predominantly from +7 to +19 days/decade. The annual rainfall shows a predominant elevation sign of up to +200 mm/decade only in the northern part of the basin, while the remainder shows a reduction of up to -100 mm/decade. The duration of drought periods increases in the south-central sector of the basin, reaching up to +13 days/decade in some areas. The results of this study will be used in the future as an important input, together with exposure, sensibility, and local adaptation capacity, to design adaptation strategies that are more consistent with local reality and to the needs of local communities.</p>

Influence of Currents and Atmospheric Circulation on the Efficiency of European Anchovy Fishing during its Wintering off the Black Sea Coast of the Krasnodar Territory

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. N. Panov ◽  
E. O. Spiridonova ◽  
◽  
Keyword(s):  
Black Sea ◽  
Atmospheric Transport ◽  
Mesoscale Eddy ◽  
The Black Sea ◽  
Short Term ◽  
European Anchovy ◽  
The North ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Black Sea Coast ◽  
Sea Coast

Russian fishermen harvest European anchovy primarily off the Black Sea coast of the Krasnodar Territory during its wintering and wintering migrations. At wintering grounds, temperature conditions become a secondary factor in determining the behaviour of commercial concentration of European anchovy, with wind and currents being the primary factors. Therefore, the aim of this work is to determine the potential use of daily data on water circulation and local atmospheric transport in short-term (1–7 days) forecasting of European anchovy fishing in the Black Sea. The research used the European anchovy fishery monitoring materials for January – March 2019, as well as daily maps of the Black and Azov Seas level anomalies (from satellite altimetry data) and surface atmospheric pressure and temperature in Europe (analysis) for the mentioned period. The dynamics of the catch rate and its relation to altimetry and atmospheric transport indicators in the north-eastern part of the Black Sea were investigated using graphical and correlation methods. This analysis showed that the main factor contributing to increased catches is intensification of northwest currents in the coastal 60-km zone. The effect of atmospheric transport on fishing efficiency depends on the mesoscale eddy structure of the nearshore current field. In the presence of an intense northwest current in the fishing area, southwest atmospheric transports have a positive effect on fishing, while in the presence of an anticyclonic meander of currents, northeast atmospheric transports become effective. The presence of maximum significant relationships when the determinants of fishing performance are shifted by 1–7 days allows making short-term predictions of fishing efficiency.

scholarly journals “Why (Should) I Do Something for the Environment?” Profiles of Flemish Adolescents’ Motivation Toward the Environment

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (7) ◽  
pp. 2579 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wanda Sass ◽  
Jelle Pauw ◽  
Vincent Donche ◽  
Peter Petegem
Keyword(s):  
Cluster Analysis ◽  
Factor Analysis ◽  
Secondary School ◽  
Secondary School Students ◽  
School Students ◽  
The North ◽  
Dutch Translation ◽  
Confirmatory Factor ◽  
Senior Secondary ◽  
Person Centered Approach

The Motivation Toward the Environment Scale (MTES), developed in Canada, measures people’s self-determined motivation for doing something for the environment. Answering the call by its original developers, this study further validated the MTES within a sample of 779 Dutch-speaking senior secondary school students, aged 17 to 19, in the north of Belgium. More specifically, reliability and construct validity of a Dutch translation of the MTES were verified. To this measure, confirmatory factor analysis was used, and the hypothesized simplex structure was tested through correlation analyses. Results confirmed the reliability of the MTES and a five-scale version of the MTES, excluding identified motivation, is introduced. This variable-centered approach was complemented by the adoption of a person-centered approach for identifying MTES profiles. Using cluster analysis, four meaningful MTES profiles emerged, with amotivation scoring medium to high in all but one. Theoretical implications of the findings and suggestions for interventions and further research are discussed.

scholarly journals Trends in compound extremes of air temperature and precipitation in Eastern Europe

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elena Vyshkvarkova ◽  
Olga Sukhonos
Keyword(s):  
Eastern Europe ◽  
North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
The North ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Atmosphere System ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation

Abstract The spatial distribution of compound extremes of air temperature and precipitation was studied over the territory of Eastern Europe for the period 1950–2018 during winter and spring. Using daily data on air temperature and precipitation, we calculated the frequency and trends of the four indices – cold/dry, cold/wet, warm/dry and warm/wet. Also, we studying the connection between these indices and large-scale processes in the ocean-atmosphere system such as North Atlantic Oscillation, East Atlantic Oscillation and Scandinavian Oscillation. The results have shown that positive trends in the region are typical of the combinations with the temperatures above the 75th percentile, i.e., the warm extremes in winter and spring. Negative trends were obtained for the cold extremes. Statistically significant increase in the number of days with warm extremes was observed in the northern parts of the region in winter and spring. The analysis of the impacts of the large-scale processes in oceans-atmosphere system showed that the North Atlantic Oscillation index has a strong positive and statistically significant correlation with the warm indices of compound extremes in the northern part of Eastern Europe in winter, while the Scandinavian Oscillation shows the opposite picture.

scholarly journals Contribution of SST change to multidecadal global and continental surface air temperature trends between 1910 and 2013

2019 ◽  
Vol 54 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 1295-1313
Author(s):  
Yidan Xu ◽  
Jianping Li ◽  
Cheng Sun ◽  
Xiaopei Lin ◽  
Hailong Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Western Pacific ◽  
Multidecadal Variability ◽  
The North ◽  
Temperature Trends ◽  
Community Atmosphere Model ◽  
Community Earth System Model ◽  
Goddard Institute

AbstractThe global mean surface air temperature (GMST) shows multidecadal variability over the period of 1910–2013, with an increasing trend. This study quantifies the contribution of hemispheric surface air temperature (SAT) variations and individual ocean sea surface temperature (SST) changes to the GMST multidecadal variability for 1910–2013. At the hemispheric scale, both the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) observations and the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Community Atmosphere Model 5.3 (CAM5.3) simulation indicate that the Northern Hemisphere (NH) favors the GMST multidecadal trend during periods of accelerated warming (1910–1945, 1975–1998) and cooling (1940–1975, 2001–2013), whereas the Southern Hemisphere (SH) slows the intensity of both warming and cooling processes. The contribution of the NH SAT variation to the GMST multidecadal trend is higher than that of the SH. We conduct six experiments with different ocean SST forcing, and find that all the oceans make positive contributions to the GMST multidecadal trend during rapid warming periods. However, only the Indian, North Atlantic, and western Pacific oceans make positive contributions to the GMST multidecadal trend between 1940 and 1975, whereas only the tropical Pacific and the North Pacific SSTs contribute to the GMST multidecadal trend between 2001 and 2013. The North Atlantic and western Pacific oceans have important impacts on modulating the GMST multidecadal trend across the entire 20th century. Each ocean makes different contributions to the SAT multidecadal trend of different continents during different periods.

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