scholarly journals PROBLEMS IN THE ORGANIZATION OF EPIDEMIC SURVEILLANCE OF LEPTOSPIROSIS IN A SUBJECT OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

2012 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 46-48
Author(s):  
A. A. Nafeyev
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Laboratory Diagnosis ◽  
Natural Focus ◽  
Epidemic Process ◽  
Natural Foci ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Active Natural

This paper characterizes the epidemic process of leptospirosis. The current new herd infections are typified by: 1) the formation of new natural foci under anthropogenic and climatic factors; 2) the change in the biocenotic structure of natural foci; 3) the formation of natural foci of mixed infectious diseases of bacterial and virus etiology; 4) the change in the epidemic potential of natural foci; 5) synathropization of infectious diseases. Few or no registered leptospirosis cases in some silent areas are frequently attributable to poor differential, including laboratory, diagnosis. The epidemic process is characterized in terms of the active natural focus of leptospirosis in a long-term period.

scholarly journals Review of the Epidemiological Situation on Ixodic Tick-Borne Borreliosis in the Russian Federation in 2010–2020 and Prognosis for 2021

2021 ◽  
pp. 52-61
Author(s):  
S. A. Rudakova ◽  
N. A. Pen’evskaya ◽  
A. I. Blokh ◽  
N. V. Rudakov ◽  
D. V. Trankvilevsky ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Russian Federation ◽  
Preventive Measures ◽  
Slight Reduction ◽  
Natural Foci ◽  
Federal Districts ◽  
Coronavirus Infection ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
High Degree ◽  
Epidemiological Situation

Objective was to analyze the epidemiological situation on Ixodidae tick-borne borreliosis (ITBB) in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation in the dynamics over the period of 2010–2020, taking into account the features of the year 2020, associated with the spread of COVID-19, and to forecast the development of the epidemic process for 2021. In 2020, 4180 cases of ITBB were registered in the Russian Federation, which is 1.93 times less than in 2019 and 1.73 times less than the long-term average annual figure for the previous 10 years. A significant decrease was noted in all federal districts (FD), with the exception of the Central FD, where more than half of all cases occurred. Compared to 2019, 75 out of 78 subjects experienced a decrease in the incidence rate in 2020, while in 56 entities that decrease was statistically significant. The multiplicity of the decrease in the incidence of ITBB in 2020 for all FD was significantly greater than the multiplicity of the decrease in the frequency of contacts of the population with ticks. Infection of Ixodidae ticks of various species with borrelia in natural foci in 2020 was statistically significantly higher than in 2019. Probably, the decrease in the registered incidence of ITBB against the background of the COVID-19 pandemic is due not only to a decrease in the intensity of contacts of the population with natural foci, but also to a sharp redistribution of the volume of inpatient and outpatient medical care in favor of COVID-19 patients. Given the high degree of significance of the identified trends in the dynamics of the epidemic ITBB process during 2010–2020, there is reason to expect an increase in the incidence in the Bryansk, Voronezh, Ryazan, Tula and Saratov regions in 2021, which requires special attention in terms of strengthening preventive measures and monitoring of the activity and structure of natural foci. In the rest of the entities of the Russian Federation, provided that the volumes of preventive measures are maintained on the same level and in the absence of abnormal natural and climatic phenomena, preservation or a slight reduction in the incidence of ITBB is likely to occur in the short term. At the same time, despite the tense situation regarding the new coronavirus infection, there is an obvious need to draw close attention to the problems of diagnosis and prevention of natural focal infections.

scholarly journals Analysis of Epidemiological Situation on Crimean Hemorrhagic Fever in the Russian Federation in 2020 and Prognosis for 2021

2021 ◽  
pp. 17-22
Author(s):  
A. S. Volynkina ◽  
O. V. Maletskaya ◽  
O. N. Skudareva ◽  
I. V. Tishchenko ◽  
E. I. Vasilenko ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Russian Federation ◽  
Hemorrhagic Fever ◽  
Federal District ◽  
Natural Focus ◽  
Modes Of Transmission ◽  
The North ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Epidemiological Situation

The review presents an analysis of the epidemiological and epizootiological situation on Crimean hemorrhagic fever in the Russian Federation in 2020. During the stated period, 32 CHF cases were registered, which is the minimum indicator since the activation of the natural focus of CHF in 1999. The mortality rate was 3.1 %. The incidence was recorded in the Rostov, Astrakhan Regions, Stavropol Territory, the Republics of Dagestan and Kalmykia. A significant decrease in the incidence of CHF was noted in all entities of the Southern Federal District and the North-Caucasian Federal District. An imported from the Republic of Crimea case of CHF was detected in Moscow. The seasonality of morbidity, occupational, and age composition of CHF patients, modes of transmission, features of the clinical course of the disease in 2020 corresponded to the data of long-term observations. Epizootiological monitoring of the territory of the CHF natural focus showed that the abundance of Hyalomma marginatum adults and the percentage of Ixodidae tick pools positive for the presence of CCHF virus markers corresponded to the average long-term indicators at stationary observation points in 2020 , which indicates the persisting epizootiological disadvantage of the territory of the natural CHF focus in the Russian Federation. The persisting high numbers and infection rate of H. marginatum ticks can contribute to the development of an unfavorable epidemiological situation in the south of the country with a possible increase in the incidence of CHF in the Russian Federation in 2021. 

scholarly journals NEW APPROACHES TO ASSESSING AND FORECASTING MORBIDITY WITH ENTEROVIRUS (NON-POLIO) INFECTION IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION USING MATHEMATICAL MODELS

2021 ◽  
pp. 108-117
Author(s):  
I.V. Feldblium ◽  
◽  
V.G. Akimkin ◽  
A.V. Alimov ◽  
M.V. Piterskiy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Statistical Parameters ◽  
Exact Test ◽  
Epidemic Process ◽  
Epidemiologic Surveillance ◽  
Research Goal ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
And Control

At present it is impossible to develop epidemiologic surveillance and control over any infection regarding studies on dynamics of morbidity, seasonality and periodicity without using mathematical modeling techniques. Our research goal was to study regularities in manifestations of epidemic process for enterovirus (non-polio) infection (EVnI) in the Russian Federation over 14 years (2006–2019) using mathematical models (linear, logarithmic, power, and exponential approximation).An optimal mathematical model was selected using three statistical parameters, namely determination coefficient, Fischer’s exact test, and standard error. Periodicity of rises and falls in morbidity was calculated with Fourier one- dimensional spectral analysis. Intra-year dynamics of morbidity with EVnI was estimated basing on monthly spread of the disease cases on the RF territory. Classic seasonal decomposition, Census I technique, was applied to analyze time series of monthly morbidity. It was determined that EVnI epidemic process was unevenly spread over years in the RF in the examined period of time (2006–2019) and there were two opposite trends in it; the first one lasted from 2006 to 2010 when morbidity was declining and the second was from 2010 to 2019 when it was growing. Having analyzed manifestations of EVnI epidemi- ologic process in long-term dynamics given its uneven spread as per years, we established that it was advisable to use mathematical models approximated as per separate time periods. Average long-term morbidity with EVnI amounted to 8.09 0/0000 in the RF in 2010–2019 with growth rate being equal to 17.7 %. Maximum value was registered in 2017 (16.32 0/0000). An unfavorable prediction for further epidemic situation development was revealed for the examined pe- riod. The epidemic process was characterized with 4-year periodicity and summer-autumn seasonality with peaks usually occurring in August and September. Rates that characterized intensity of the trends in long-term morbidity dynamics and were calculated with mathematical models differed authentically from those obtained via conventional calculations of average values (χ=11.08; d.f.=1; p=0.0009).

scholarly journals Modern clinical manifestations of tick-borne encephalitis in Tomsk region

2006 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 52-56
Author(s):  
N. G. Zhoukova ◽  
A. V. Lepyokhin ◽  
L. V. Loukashova ◽  
R. F. Nasyrova ◽  
N. V. Ryazantseva ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Russian Federation ◽  
Clinical Manifestations ◽  
Morbidity Rate ◽  
Natural Focus ◽  
Tick Borne Encephalitis ◽  
Tomsk Region ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Active Natural

The article presents the results of clinical and epidemiological investigations of morbidity rate of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) in Tomsk region in a period of 1944—2005. it is shown that Tomsk region is an active natural focus of TBE, leading among other regions of the Russian Federation in morbidity rate and spreading of the infection. Main features of pathomorphosis of clinical ma- nifestitions of TBE were analysed: prevailing of fever and latent forms was determined, as well as decrese of paralytic and menin- geal forms levels.

scholarly journals Chorological Structure of natural focal infections in the Asian part of the Russian Federation

2017 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 63-69 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. K. Noskov ◽  
M. B. Sharakshanov ◽  
A. Ya. Nikitin
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Retrospective Analysis ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Hemorrhagic Fever ◽  
Southern Zone ◽  
Epidemic Process ◽  
Northern Zone ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Nenets Autonomous ◽  
Climatic Features

Division of the Asian part of the Russian Federation into southern and northern zones was implemented on the basis of physical-climatic features. The retrospective analysis of the natural focal infectious diseases in humans was carried out. Spectrum of nosological forms and epidemic process intensity in each of the evolved zones were established. Epidemic manifestations were the most expressed in the Subjects belonging to the southern zone, with domination of the Ixodes tick-borne infections. In northern zone natural focal infections included 57,1 % of local cases, they were registered only in the population of Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Okrug (District), and barely nontransmissible infections: hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome and rabies.

scholarly journals NEW APPROACHES TO ASSESSING AND FORECASTING MORBIDITY WITH ENTEROVIRUS (NON-POLIO) INFECTION IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION USING MATHEMATICAL MODELS

2021 ◽  
pp. 108-117
Author(s):  
I.V. Feldblium ◽  
◽  
V.G. Akimkin ◽  
A.V. Alimov ◽  
M.V. Piterskiy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Statistical Parameters ◽  
Exact Test ◽  
Epidemic Process ◽  
Epidemiologic Surveillance ◽  
Research Goal ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
And Control

At present it is impossible to develop epidemiologic surveillance and control over any infection regarding studies on dynamics of morbidity, seasonality and periodicity without using mathematical modeling techniques. Our research goal was to study regularities in manifestations of epidemic process for enterovirus (non-polio) infection (EVnI) in the Russian Federation over 14 years (2006–2019) using mathematical models (linear, logarithmic, power, and exponential approximation).An optimal mathematical model was selected using three statistical parameters, namely determination coefficient, Fischer’s exact test, and standard error. Periodicity of rises and falls in morbidity was calculated with Fourier one- dimensional spectral analysis. Intra-year dynamics of morbidity with EVnI was estimated basing on monthly spread of the disease cases on the RF territory. Classic seasonal decomposition, Census I technique, was applied to analyze time series of monthly morbidity. It was determined that EVnI epidemic process was unevenly spread over years in the RF in the examined period of time (2006–2019) and there were two opposite trends in it; the first one lasted from 2006 to 2010 when morbidity was declining and the second was from 2010 to 2019 when it was growing. Having analyzed manifestations of EVnI epidemi- ologic process in long-term dynamics given its uneven spread as per years, we established that it was advisable to use mathematical models approximated as per separate time periods. Average long-term morbidity with EVnI amounted to 8.09 0/0000 in the RF in 2010–2019 with growth rate being equal to 17.7 %. Maximum value was registered in 2017 (16.32 0/0000). An unfavorable prediction for further epidemic situation development was revealed for the examined pe- riod. The epidemic process was characterized with 4-year periodicity and summer-autumn seasonality with peaks usually occurring in August and September. Rates that characterized intensity of the trends in long-term morbidity dynamics and were calculated with mathematical models differed authentically from those obtained via conventional calculations of average values (χ=11.08; d.f.=1; p=0.0009).

scholarly journals Effect of the natural and climatic factors on epidemiological situation related to natural focal infections

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 820-836
Author(s):  
D. A. Prislegina ◽  
V. M. Dubyanskiy ◽  
A. E. Platonov ◽  
O. V. Maletskaya
Keyword(s):  
Russian Federation ◽  
Vegetation Index ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Abiotic Factors ◽  
Hemorrhagic Fever ◽  
West Nile Fever ◽  
Crimean Congo Hemorrhagic Fever ◽  
Epidemic Process ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Epidemiological Situation

This article is dedicated to the analysis and generalization of the Russian and foreign research results on natural and climatic factors effect on the intensity of epidemic process manifestations and the natural focal infections pathogens vectors vital activity which are the most widespread in the Russian Federation. Over the past seven years tick-borne infections have been accounting for more than 50 per cent in the natural focal diseases general nosological structure. Among the diseases of this group Lyme borreliosis leads in prevalence and frequency of cases identification. Tick-borne viral encephalitis is still a serious danger for national health. Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever epidemiological situation remains unfavorable in the south of the European part of Russia. In addition to the annual patients identification, the demonstrable trend of shifting and expansion of the pathogen’s area in a northerly direction was established. It creates a risk for the spread of the Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus outside the southern regions of the country. High incidence of the dangerous vector-borne infection — West Nile fever — with the involvement of new subjects in the epidemic process and the emergence of local cases of infection in previously non-endemic territories is registered. Expansion of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome natural foci borders, which is the most widespread natural focal zoonosis of viral etiology in the Russian Federation and is the second by the frequency of patients identification after tick-borne infections, is noted. Research data for the dependence of the carriers pathogens number and the dynamics of the natural focal infections incidence on the values of climatic factors, confirmed using various methods of mathematical statistics (time-series analysis, autoregression integrated moving average, logistic regression, correlation analysis, one-way analysis of variance and other) were systematized. It was found that the temperature and humidity of the air and soil, the amount of precipitation, the height of the snow cover are the common abiotic factors for all of investigated infections. The values of these factors can be used for the subsequent epidemiological forecast. The further study of relationship between the incidence rate of the population, the number of arthropod vectors and small mammals with indicators of soil moisture and temperature at different depths, hydrothermal coefficient, normalized relative vegetation index, accumulated values of temperature and precipitation, as well as similar studies on other actual natural focal infections in the Russian Federation will be very promising.

Features of Long-Term Incidence Rates of Acute Viral Upper Respiratory Tract Infections and Influenza in the Population of the Rostov Region

2021 ◽  
pp. 63-70
Author(s):  
SS Slis ◽  
EV Kovalev ◽  
AA Kononenko ◽  
OV Sergienko ◽  
EG Yanovich ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Russian Federation ◽  
Respiratory Tract Infections ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Upper Respiratory Tract ◽  
Epidemic Process ◽  
Rostov Region ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Upper Respiratory ◽  
Tract Infections

Summary. Introduction: As of today, acute viral upper respiratory tract infections (URTIs) remain the most common diseases in the world and the Russian Federation and one of the most important problems of national health care. The objective of our work was to study the dynamics and intensity of the epidemic process of influenza and other URTIs in the Russian Federation and Rostov Region over a thirty-year period and to establish the main features of the disease incidence in the Rostov Region. Materials and methods: We analyzed data of annual State Reports on Sanitary and Epidemiological Wellbeing of the Population in the Russian Federation and Statistical Form No. 2 on information about infectious and parasitic diseases for the period 1990–2019 and data on the size of population using StatSoft STATISTICA 6.1.478 Russian, Microsoft Excel, and NextGIS QGIS software. Results: We found that in 1990–1999, 2000–2009, and 2010–2019, regional URTI rates tended to decrease in each subsequent decade compared to the previous one. The long-term incidence rate of URTIs in the Rostov Region was 16,099.2 ± (2.045 × 384.2) ‰оо, lower than the Russian average rate of 19,710.3 ± (2.045 × 326.4) (p = 0.05). The amplitude of fluctuations in the incidence was 8,015.4 ‰оо and 7,619.6 ‰оо in the Rostov Region and the Russian Federation, respectively. Until 1997, regional incidence rates were comparable to the national averages but demonstrated an upward trend since the year 2000. We revealed unevenness of the course of the epidemic process related to cyclicity, with an increase in the duration of cycles since 1998. It was determined that the regional incidence of influenza was significantly lower than the national average and had a tendency to decrease. The long-term influenza rate in the Rostov Region was 412.4 ± (2.045 × 131.3) (p = 0.05) or almost three times lower than that in the country 1,553.0 ± (2.045 × 301.2) (p = 0.05). The dynamics of influenza incidence in the Rostov Region also had a cyclical course with a smaller amplitude of fluctuations (3,215.1 ‰оо) than in the Russian Federation (5,164.8 ‰оо). The duration of epidemic cycles in 1990–1998 and 2002–2012 was two years but we noted a three-year cycle in 1999–2001. We established a correlation between influenza and URTI rates and population density in regional cities and various age groups: the highest URTI rates (74.9 %) were registered in children between two to 17 years of age while 52.5 % of influenza cases were adults (aged 18+). Conclusion: The established characteristics of the development of the epidemic process of influenza and URTIs in the Rostov Region prove the necessity of a differentiated approach to organizing and implementing comprehensive preventive measures within optimization of epidemiological surveillance of these diseases, and can also serve as basic criteria for disease prediction.

scholarly journals Epidemiological and Epizootic Situation on Plague in the Russian Federation and Forecast for Its Development for 2020–2025

2020 ◽  
pp. 43-50
Author(s):  
N. V. Popov ◽  
G. A. Eroshenko ◽  
I. G. Karnaukhov ◽  
A. A. Kuznetsov ◽  
A. N. Matrosov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Russian Federation ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
Central Asian ◽  
Foreign Countries ◽  
Natural Foci ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Active Natural ◽  
Epidemiological Situation

Objective of the investigation was to assess epidemiological and epizootiological conditions in natural plague foci of the Russian Federation, neighboring states and foreign countries in 2019. Negative effect of the current climate warming on the state of parasitic systems of natural foci with circulation of plague microbe of the main subspecies, medieval biovar, phylogenetic branch 2.MED1 is emphasized. In 2019, local plague epizooties were registered in the territory of two (Gorno-Altai high-mountain and Tuva mountain) out of 11 natural plague foci of the Russian Federation. The total area of epizooty covered 2248.5 km2 . All in all, 31 cultures of Y. pestis of the main subspecies, antique biovar, phylogenetic branch 4.ANT and 5 cultures of Altai biovar, central-asian subspecies, phylogenetic branch 0.PE4a were isolated. The forecast for continuing tense epidemiological situation, both for 2020 and for 2021–2025, has been substantiated for natural foci with circulation of the main subspecies of antique biovar, phyologenetic branch 4.ANT: Gorno-Altai high-mountain and Tuva mountain ones. In the remaining nine natural foci in the territory of the Russian Federation epizootic manifestations of plague in 2020 are highly improbable. This prognosis is an indication to optimize the deployment of human and logistical resources of plague control institutions through concentrated preventive activities in the territories of epizootically active natural plague foci. Otlined is the necessity to put a new enhanced classification of Y. pestis into practice.

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