COVID-19: Finally on wane, with reduced lethality

2021 ◽  
Vol 24 ◽  
Author(s):  
Deepak Sharma ◽  
Shalimar
Keyword(s):  
Death Rate ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Healthy People ◽  
Third Wave ◽  
Vaccination Programs ◽  
Case Fatality Ratio ◽  
Pathogenic Variants

: As most of the countries have already passed the peaks of the second or third wave of infections, COVID-19 is (finally) on the wane and will soon touch the baseline persistence with a reduced death rate. The case fatality ratio (CFR) or lethality is presently only ~2.0%, which is relatively low in comparison to the high of 14% in April 2020. More importantly, the lethality in healthy people is 20 times lower. In addition, successful vaccination programs are currently underway in several countries. Thus, although new pathogenic variants, as well as a few isolated cases of resurgence, will continue to emerge, the worst seems to be over, and we will surely win this battle soon!

scholarly journals Systematic Assessment of COVID-19 Pandemic in Bangladesh: Effectiveness of Preparedness in the First Wave

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Priom Saha ◽  
Jahida Gulshan
Keyword(s):  
Death Rate ◽  
Exploratory Data Analysis ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Strong Positive Correlation ◽  
Systematic Assessment ◽  
Global Perspectives ◽  
Case Fatality Ratio ◽  
Continuous Basis ◽  
Exploratory Data ◽  
Implementation Gaps

Background: To develop an effective countermeasure and determine our susceptibilities to the outbreak of COVID-19 is challenging for a densely populated developing country like Bangladesh and a systematic review of the disease on a continuous basis is necessary.Methods: Publicly available and globally acclaimed datasets (4 March 2020–30 September 2020) from IEDCR, Bangladesh, JHU, and ECDC database are used for this study. Visual exploratory data analysis is used and we fitted a polynomial model for the number of deaths. A comparison of Bangladesh scenario over different time points as well as with global perspectives is made.Results: In Bangladesh, the number of active cases had decreased, after reaching a peak, with a constant pattern of death rate at from July to the end of September, 2020. Seventy-one percent of the cases and 77% of the deceased were males. People aged between 21 and 40 years were most vulnerable to the coronavirus and most of the fatalities (51.49%) were in the 60+ population. A strong positive correlation (0.93) between the number of tests and confirmed cases and a constant incidence rate (around 21%) from June 1 to August 31, 2020 was observed. The case fatality ratio was between 1 and 2. The number of cases and the number of deaths in Bangladesh were much lower compared to other countries.Conclusions: This study will help to understand the patterns of spread and transition in Bangladesh, possible measures, effectiveness of the preparedness, implementation gaps, and their consequences to gather vital information and prevent future pandemics.

scholarly journals Evaluating alternative hypotheses to explain the downward trend in the indices of the COVID-19 pandemic death rate

PeerJ ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
pp. e11150
Author(s):  
Sonali Shinde ◽  
Pratima Ranade ◽  
Milind Watve
Keyword(s):  
Death Rate ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Downward Trend ◽  
Treatment Protocols ◽  
Systematic Analysis ◽  
Case Fatality Ratio ◽  
Alternative Hypotheses ◽  
Global Data

Background In the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, in the global data on the case fatality ratio (CFR) and other indices reflecting death rate, there is a consistent downward trend from mid-April to mid-November. The downward trend can be an illusion caused by biases and limitations of data or it could faithfully reflect a declining death rate. A variety of explanations for this trend are possible, but a systematic analysis of the testable predictions of the alternative hypotheses has not yet been attempted. Methodology We state six testable alternative hypotheses, analyze their testable predictions using public domain data and evaluate their relative contributions to the downward trend. Results We show that a decline in the death rate is real; changing age structure of the infected population and evolution of the virus towards reduced virulence are the most supported hypotheses and together contribute to major part of the trend. The testable predictions from other explanations including altered testing efficiency, time lag, improved treatment protocols and herd immunity are not consistently supported, or do not appear to make a major contribution to this trend although they may influence some other patterns of the epidemic. Conclusion The fatality of the infection showed a robust declining time trend between mid April to mid November. Changing age class of the infected and decreasing virulence of the pathogen were found to be the strongest contributors to the trend.

scholarly journals Downward Trend in the Indices of Death Rate in the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evaluating Alternative Hypotheses

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Milind Watve ◽  
Sonali Shinde ◽  
Pratima Ranade
Keyword(s):  
Death Rate ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Downward Trend ◽  
Treatment Protocols ◽  
Systematic Analysis ◽  
Case Fatality Ratio ◽  
Alternative Hypotheses ◽  
Global Data

In the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, in the global data on the case fatality ratio and other indices reflecting death rate, there is a consistent downward trend from mid-April to mid-August. The downward trend can be an illusion caused by biases and limitations of data or it could faithfully reflect a declining death rate. A variety of explanations for this trend are possible, but a systematic analysis of the testable predictions of the alternative hypotheses has not yet been attempted. We state six testable alternative hypotheses, analyse their testable predictions using public domain data and evaluate their relative contributions to the downward trend. We show that a decline in the death rate is real; changing age structure of the infected population and evolution of the virus towards reduced virulence are the most supported hypotheses and together contribute to major part of the trend. The testable predictions from other explanations including altered testing efficiency, time lag, improved treatment protocols and herd immunity are not consistently supported, or do not appear to make a major contribution to this trend although they may influence some other patterns of the epidemic.

scholarly journals Downward trend in the indices of death rate in the Covid-19 pandemic: Evaluating alternative hypotheses

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sonali Shinde ◽  
Pratima Ranade ◽  
Milind Watve
Keyword(s):  
Death Rate ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Downward Trend ◽  
Treatment Protocols ◽  
Systematic Analysis ◽  
Case Fatality Ratio ◽  
Alternative Hypotheses ◽  
Global Data

In the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, in the global data on the case fatality ratio and other indices reflecting death rate, there is a consistent downward trend from mid-April to mid-August. The downward trend can be an illusion caused by biases and limitations of data or it could faithfully reflect a declining death rate. A variety of explanations for this trend are possible, but a systematic analysis of the testable predictions of the alternative hypotheses has not yet been attempted. We state six testable alternative hypotheses, analyse their testable predictions using public domain data and evaluate their relative contributions to the downward trend. We show that a decline in the death rate is real; changing age structure of the infected population and evolution of the virus towards reduced virulence are the most supported hypotheses and together contribute to major part of the trend. The testable predictions from other explanations including altered testing efficiency, time lag, improved treatment protocols and herd immunity are not consistently supported, or do not appear to make a major contribution to this trend although they may influence some other patterns of the epidemic.

A Note on Estimating the Case Fatality Ratio for Novel Corona Virus Disease (Covid-19)

Coronaviruses ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 01 ◽  
Author(s):  
Prafulla Kumar Swain
Keyword(s):  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Graphical Representation ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Case Fatality Ratio ◽  
Healthcare Planning ◽  
Robust Estimates ◽  
University Of Oxford ◽  
Pros And Cons ◽  
Death Cases

Background: In this paper an attempt has been made to estimate the Case Fatality Ratio (CFR) for coronavirus disease of India and few selected countries. and Also, highlighted the pros and cons of obtaining crude and adjusted CFR of COVID-19 pandemic. Material and Methods: Data extracted from WHO situation report and University of Oxford website have been used for this analysis. The CFR and its 95% confidence interval were computed, trend and bar plot was used for graphical representation. Results: The worldwide crude CFR stands 6.73% (95% CI 6.69 to 6.76) based on 21, 83, 877 confirmed and 1,46,872 death cases(as on 17th April,2020). Belgium was highest CFR 13.95% as compared to others. However, India’s CFR was found to be around 3.26% (as on 17th April, 2020). Conclusion: In conclusion, the estimation and interpretation of CFR is critical in response to ongoing COVID-19. The initial CFR estimates are subject to change, still it is useful for healthcare planning over the coming months. Moreover, the precise and robust estimates of CFR will be available only at the end of the epidemic.

Covid-19 Cases in India: A Visual Exploratory Data Analysis Model (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jayesh S
Keyword(s):  
Data Analysis ◽  
Exploratory Data Analysis ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Public Health Emergency ◽  
Virus Spread ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Case Fatality Ratio ◽  
First Case ◽  
Exploratory Data ◽  
The Government

UNSTRUCTURED Covid-19 outbreak was first reported in Wuhan, China. The deadly virus spread not just the disease, but fear around the globe. On January 2020, WHO declared COVID-19 as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC). First case of Covid-19 in India was reported on January 30, 2020. By the time, India was prepared in fighting against the virus. India has taken various measures to tackle the situation. In this paper, an exploratory data analysis of Covid-19 cases in India is carried out. Data namely number of cases, testing done, Case Fatality ratio, Number of deaths, change in visits stringency index and measures taken by the government is used for modelling and visual exploratory data analysis.

scholarly journals Correlates of SARS-CoV-2 Variants on Deaths, Case Incidence and Case Fatality Ratio among the Continents for the Period of 1 December 2020 to 15 March 2021

Genes ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 1061
Author(s):  
Wajdy J. Al-Awaida ◽  
Baker Jawabrah Al Hourani ◽  
Samer Swedan ◽  
Refat Nimer ◽  
Foad Alzoughool ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Negative Correlation ◽  
Significant Positive Correlation ◽  
Vaccine Development ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Significant Negative Correlation ◽  
Reference Sequence ◽  
Genome Sequences ◽  
Positive Correlation ◽  
Case Fatality Ratio ◽  
Epidemiological Surveys

The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has quickly developed into a worldwide pandemic. Mutations in the SARS-CoV-2 genome may affect various aspects of the disease including fatality ratio. In this study, 553,518 SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences isolated from patients from continents for the period 1 December 2020 to 15 March 2021 were comprehensively analyzed and a total of 82 mutations were identified concerning the reference sequence. In addition, associations between the mutations and the case fatality ratio (CFR), cases per million and deaths per million, were examined. The mutations having the highest frequencies among different continents were Spike_D614G and NSP12_P323L. Among the identified mutations, NSP2_T153M, NSP14_I42V and Spike_L18F mutations showed a positive correlation to CFR. While the NSP13_Y541C, NSP3_T73I and NSP3_Q180H mutations demonstrated a negative correlation to CFR. The Spike_D614G and NSP12_P323L mutations showed a positive correlation to deaths per million. The NSP3_T1198K, NS8_L84S and NSP12_A97V mutations showed a significant negative correlation to deaths per million. The NSP12_P323L and Spike_D614G mutations showed a positive correlation to the number of cases per million. In contrast, NS8_L84S and NSP12_A97V mutations showed a negative correlation to the number of cases per million. In addition, among the identified clades, none showed a significant correlation to CFR. The G, GR, GV, S clades showed a significant positive correlation to deaths per million. The GR and S clades showed a positive correlation to number of cases per million. The clades having the highest frequencies among continents were G, followed by GH and GR. These findings should be taken into consideration during epidemiological surveys of the virus and vaccine development.

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