scholarly journals Discovery of Depression-Associated Factors From a Nationwide Population-Based Survey: Epidemiological Study Using Machine Learning and Network Analysis (Preprint)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sang Min Nam ◽  
Thomas A Peterson ◽  
Kyoung Yul Seo ◽  
Hyun Wook Han ◽  
Jee In Kang
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Risk Factors ◽  
Network Analysis ◽  
Survey Data ◽  
Associated Factors ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Epidemiological Studies ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting

BACKGROUND In epidemiological studies, finding the best subset of factors is challenging when the number of explanatory variables is large. OBJECTIVE Our study had two aims. First, we aimed to identify essential depression-associated factors using the extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) machine learning algorithm from big survey data (the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 2012-2016). Second, we aimed to achieve a comprehensive understanding of multifactorial features in depression using network analysis. METHODS An XGBoost model was trained and tested to classify “current depression” and “no lifetime depression” for a data set of 120 variables for 12,596 cases. The optimal XGBoost hyperparameters were set by an automated machine learning tool (TPOT), and a high-performance sparse model was obtained by feature selection using the feature importance value of XGBoost. We performed statistical tests on the model and nonmodel factors using survey-weighted multiple logistic regression and drew a correlation network among factors. We also adopted statistical tests for the confounder or interaction effect of selected risk factors when it was suspected on the network. RESULTS The XGBoost-derived depression model consisted of 18 factors with an area under the weighted receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.86. Two nonmodel factors could be found using the model factors, and the factors were classified into direct (<i>P</i>&lt;.05) and indirect (<i>P</i>≥.05), according to the statistical significance of the association with depression. Perceived stress and asthma were the most remarkable risk factors, and urine specific gravity was a novel protective factor. The depression-factor network showed clusters of socioeconomic status and quality of life factors and suggested that educational level and sex might be predisposing factors. Indirect factors (eg, diabetes, hypercholesterolemia, and smoking) were involved in confounding or interaction effects of direct factors. Triglyceride level was a confounder of hypercholesterolemia and diabetes, smoking had a significant risk in females, and weight gain was associated with depression involving diabetes. CONCLUSIONS XGBoost and network analysis were useful to discover depression-related factors and their relationships and can be applied to epidemiological studies using big survey data.

scholarly journals Discovery of Depression-Associated Factors From a Nationwide Population-Based Survey: Epidemiological Study Using Machine Learning and Network Analysis

10.2196/27344 ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (6) ◽  
pp. e27344
Author(s):  
Sang Min Nam ◽  
Thomas A Peterson ◽  
Kyoung Yul Seo ◽  
Hyun Wook Han ◽  
Jee In Kang
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Risk Factors ◽  
Network Analysis ◽  
Survey Data ◽  
Associated Factors ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Epidemiological Studies ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting

Background In epidemiological studies, finding the best subset of factors is challenging when the number of explanatory variables is large. Objective Our study had two aims. First, we aimed to identify essential depression-associated factors using the extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) machine learning algorithm from big survey data (the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 2012-2016). Second, we aimed to achieve a comprehensive understanding of multifactorial features in depression using network analysis. Methods An XGBoost model was trained and tested to classify “current depression” and “no lifetime depression” for a data set of 120 variables for 12,596 cases. The optimal XGBoost hyperparameters were set by an automated machine learning tool (TPOT), and a high-performance sparse model was obtained by feature selection using the feature importance value of XGBoost. We performed statistical tests on the model and nonmodel factors using survey-weighted multiple logistic regression and drew a correlation network among factors. We also adopted statistical tests for the confounder or interaction effect of selected risk factors when it was suspected on the network. Results The XGBoost-derived depression model consisted of 18 factors with an area under the weighted receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.86. Two nonmodel factors could be found using the model factors, and the factors were classified into direct (P<.05) and indirect (P≥.05), according to the statistical significance of the association with depression. Perceived stress and asthma were the most remarkable risk factors, and urine specific gravity was a novel protective factor. The depression-factor network showed clusters of socioeconomic status and quality of life factors and suggested that educational level and sex might be predisposing factors. Indirect factors (eg, diabetes, hypercholesterolemia, and smoking) were involved in confounding or interaction effects of direct factors. Triglyceride level was a confounder of hypercholesterolemia and diabetes, smoking had a significant risk in females, and weight gain was associated with depression involving diabetes. Conclusions XGBoost and network analysis were useful to discover depression-related factors and their relationships and can be applied to epidemiological studies using big survey data.

Exploiting Rules to Enhance Machine Learning in Extracting Information From Multi-Institutional Prostate Pathology Reports

2020 ◽  
pp. 865-874
Author(s):  
Enrico Santus ◽  
Tal Schuster ◽  
Amir M. Tahmasebi ◽  
Clara Li ◽  
Adam Yala ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Hybrid Systems ◽  
High Performance ◽  
Feature Model ◽  
Training Data ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting ◽  
Pathology Reports

PURPOSE Literature on clinical note mining has highlighted the superiority of machine learning (ML) over hand-crafted rules. Nevertheless, most studies assume the availability of large training sets, which is rarely the case. For this reason, in the clinical setting, rules are still common. We suggest 2 methods to leverage the knowledge encoded in pre-existing rules to inform ML decisions and obtain high performance, even with scarce annotations. METHODS We collected 501 prostate pathology reports from 6 American hospitals. Reports were split into 2,711 core segments, annotated with 20 attributes describing the histology, grade, extension, and location of tumors. The data set was split by institutions to generate a cross-institutional evaluation setting. We assessed 4 systems, namely a rule-based approach, an ML model, and 2 hybrid systems integrating the previous methods: a Rule as Feature model and a Classifier Confidence model. Several ML algorithms were tested, including logistic regression (LR), support vector machine (SVM), and eXtreme gradient boosting (XGB). RESULTS When training on data from a single institution, LR lags behind the rules by 3.5% (F1 score: 92.2% v 95.7%). Hybrid models, instead, obtain competitive results, with Classifier Confidence outperforming the rules by +0.5% (96.2%). When a larger amount of data from multiple institutions is used, LR improves by +1.5% over the rules (97.2%), whereas hybrid systems obtain +2.2% for Rule as Feature (97.7%) and +2.6% for Classifier Confidence (98.3%). Replacing LR with SVM or XGB yielded similar performance gains. CONCLUSION We developed methods to use pre-existing handcrafted rules to inform ML algorithms. These hybrid systems obtain better performance than either rules or ML models alone, even when training data are limited.

scholarly journals Identification of Potential Type II Diabetes in a Large-Scale Chinese Population Using a Systematic Machine Learning Framework

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Mingyue Xue ◽  
Yinxia Su ◽  
Chen Li ◽  
Shuxia Wang ◽  
Hua Yao
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Risk Factors ◽  
Decision Tree ◽  
Type Ii Diabetes ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Systolic Pressure ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Significant Feature ◽  
Type Ii ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting

Background. An estimated 425 million people globally have diabetes, accounting for 12% of the world’s health expenditures, and the number continues to grow, placing a huge burden on the healthcare system, especially in those remote, underserved areas. Methods. A total of 584,168 adult subjects who have participated in the national physical examination were enrolled in this study. The risk factors for type II diabetes mellitus (T2DM) were identified by p values and odds ratio, using logistic regression (LR) based on variables of physical measurement and a questionnaire. Combined with the risk factors selected by LR, we used a decision tree, a random forest, AdaBoost with a decision tree (AdaBoost), and an extreme gradient boosting decision tree (XGBoost) to identify individuals with T2DM, compared the performance of the four machine learning classifiers, and used the best-performing classifier to output the degree of variables’ importance scores of T2DM. Results. The results indicated that XGBoost had the best performance (accuracy=0.906, precision=0.910, recall=0.902, F‐1=0.906, and AUC=0.968). The degree of variables’ importance scores in XGBoost showed that BMI was the most significant feature, followed by age, waist circumference, systolic pressure, ethnicity, smoking amount, fatty liver, hypertension, physical activity, drinking status, dietary ratio (meat to vegetables), drink amount, smoking status, and diet habit (oil loving). Conclusions. We proposed a classifier based on LR-XGBoost which used fourteen variables of patients which are easily obtained and noninvasive as predictor variables to identify potential incidents of T2DM. The classifier can accurately screen the risk of diabetes in the early phrase, and the degree of variables’ importance scores gives a clue to prevent diabetes occurrence.

scholarly journals Machine Learning Classifier Models Can Identify Delirium in Intensive Care Units

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anmin Hu ◽  
Hui-Ping Li ◽  
Zhen Li ◽  
Zhongjun Zhang ◽  
Xiong-Xiong Zhong
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Risk Factors ◽  
Urine Volume ◽  
Verbal Response ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Apache Iii ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting ◽  
Cv Model ◽  
Response Score ◽  
Length Of Icu Stay

Abstract Purpose: The aim of this study was to use machine learning to construct a model for the analysis of risk factors and prediction of delirium among ICU patients.Methods: We developed a set of real-world data to enable the comparison of the reliability and accuracy of delirium prediction models from the MIMIC-III database, the MIMIC-IV database and the eICU Collaborative Research Database. Significance tests, correlation analysis, and factor analysis were used to individually screen 80 potential risk factors. The predictive algorithms were run using the following models: Logistic regression, naive Bayesian, K-nearest neighbors, support vector machine, random forest, and eXtreme Gradient Boosting. Conventional E-PRE-DELIRIC and eighteen models, including all-factor (AF) models with all potential variables, characteristic variable (CV) models with principal component factors, and rapid predictive (RP) models without laboratory test results, were used to construct the risk prediction model for delirium. The performance of these machine learning models was measured by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of tenfold cross-validation. The VIMs and SHAP algorithms, feature interpretation and sample prediction interpretation algorithms of the machine learning black box model were implemented.Results: A total of 78,365 patients were enrolled in this study, 22,159 of whom (28.28%) had positive delirium records. The E-PRE-DELIRIC model (AUC, 0.77), CV models (AUC, 0.77-0.93), CV models (AUC, 0.77-0.88) and RP models (AUC, 0.75-0.87) had discriminatory value. The random forest CV model found that the top five factors accounting for the weight of delirium were length of ICU stay, verbal response score, APACHE-III score, urine volume and hemoglobin. The SHAP values in the eXtreme Gradient Boosting CV model showed that the top three features that were negatively correlated with outcomes were verbal response score, urine volume, and hemoglobin; the top three characteristics that were positively correlated with outcomes were length of ICU stay, APACHE-III score, and alanine transaminase.Conclusion: Even with a small number of variables, machine learning has a good ability to predict delirium in critically ill patients. Characteristic variables provide direction for early intervention to reduce the risk of delirium.

scholarly journals A Machine Learning Study to Improve Surgical Case Duration Prediction

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ching-Chieh Huang ◽  
Jesyin Lai ◽  
Der-Yang Cho ◽  
Jiaxin Yu
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Healthcare Management ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
External Evaluation ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Surgical Case ◽  
Case Duration ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting ◽  
Duration Prediction

Abstract Since the emergence of COVID-19, many hospitals have encountered challenges in performing efficient scheduling and good resource management to ensure the quality of healthcare provided to patients is not compromised. Operating room (OR) scheduling is one of the issues that has gained our attention because it is related to workflow efficiency and critical care of hospitals. Automatic scheduling and high predictive accuracy of surgical case duration have a critical role in improving OR utilization. To estimate surgical case duration, many hospitals rely on historic averages based on a specific surgeon or a specific procedure type obtained from electronic medical record (EMR) scheduling systems. However, the low predictive accuracy with EMR data leads to negative impacts on patients and hospitals, such as rescheduling of surgeries and cancellation. In this study, we aim to improve the prediction of surgical case duration with advanced machine learning (ML) algorithms. We obtained a large data set containing 170,748 surgical cases (from Jan 2017 to Dec 2019) from a hospital. The data covered a broad variety of details on patients, surgeries, specialties and surgical teams. In addition, a more recent data set with 8,672 cases (from Mar to Apr 2020) was available to be used for external evaluation. We computed historic averages from the EMR data for surgeon- or procedure-specific cases, and they were used as baseline models for comparison. Subsequently, we developed our models using linear regression, random forest and extreme gradient boosting (XGB) algorithms. All models were evaluated with R-square (R2), mean absolute error (MAE), and percentage overage (actual duration longer than prediction), underage (shorter than prediction) and within (within prediction). The XGB model was superior to the other models, achieving a higher R2 (85 %) and percentage within (48 %) as well as a lower MAE (30.2 min). The total prediction errors computed for all models showed that the XGB model had the lowest inaccurate percentage (23.7 %). Overall, this study applied ML techniques in the field of OR scheduling to reduce the medical and financial burden for healthcare management. The results revealed the importance of surgery and surgeon factors in surgical case duration prediction. This study also demonstrated the importance of performing an external evaluation to better validate the performance of ML models.

Application of Machine Learning to Interpret Steady State Drainage Relative Permeability Experiments

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric Sonny Mathew ◽  
Moussa Tembely ◽  
Waleed AlAmeri ◽  
Emad W. Al-Shalabi ◽  
Abdul Ravoof Shaik
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Machine Learning ◽  
Experimental Data ◽  
Steady State ◽  
Relative Permeability ◽  
Learning Model ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Machine Learning Model ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting

Abstract A meticulous interpretation of steady-state or unsteady-state relative permeability (Kr) experimental data is required to determine a complete set of Kr curves. In this work, three different machine learning models was developed to assist in a faster estimation of these curves from steady-state drainage coreflooding experimental runs. The three different models that were tested and compared were extreme gradient boosting (XGB), deep neural network (DNN) and recurrent neural network (RNN) algorithms. Based on existing mathematical models, a leading edge framework was developed where a large database of Kr and Pc curves were generated. This database was used to perform thousands of coreflood simulation runs representing oil-water drainage steady-state experiments. The results obtained from these simulation runs, mainly pressure drop along with other conventional core analysis data, were utilized to estimate Kr curves based on Darcy's law. These analytically estimated Kr curves along with the previously generated Pc curves were fed as features into the machine learning model. The entire data set was split into 80% for training and 20% for testing. K-fold cross validation technique was applied to increase the model accuracy by splitting the 80% of the training data into 10 folds. In this manner, for each of the 10 experiments, 9 folds were used for training and the remaining one was used for model validation. Once the model is trained and validated, it was subjected to blind testing on the remaining 20% of the data set. The machine learning model learns to capture fluid flow behavior inside the core from the training dataset. The trained/tested model was thereby employed to estimate Kr curves based on available experimental results. The performance of the developed model was assessed using the values of the coefficient of determination (R2) along with the loss calculated during training/validation of the model. The respective cross plots along with comparisons of ground-truth versus AI predicted curves indicate that the model is capable of making accurate predictions with error percentage between 0.2 and 0.6% on history matching experimental data for all the three tested ML techniques (XGB, DNN, and RNN). This implies that the AI-based model exhibits better efficiency and reliability in determining Kr curves when compared to conventional methods. The results also include a comparison between classical machine learning approaches, shallow and deep neural networks in terms of accuracy in predicting the final Kr curves. The various models discussed in this research work currently focusses on the prediction of Kr curves for drainage steady-state experiments; however, the work can be extended to capture the imbibition cycle as well.

scholarly journals I NTRODUCING A NEW T ECHNICAL I NDICATOR BASED ON OCTAV O NICESCU I NFORMATIONAL E NERGY AND COMPARE IT WITH B OLLINGER BANDS FOR S&P 500 M OVEMENT P REDICTIONS

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daia Alexandru
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Kinetic Energy ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting ◽  
The Future ◽  
Tangible Evidence ◽  
Market Trends

This research paper demonstrates the invention of the kinetic bands, based on Romanian mathematician and statistician Octav Onicescu’s kinetic energy, also known as “informational energy”, where we use historical data of foreign exchange currencies or indexes to predict the trend displayed by a stock or an index and whether it will go up or down in the future. Here, we explore the imperfections of the Bollinger Bands to determine a more sophisticated triplet of indicators that predict the future movement of prices in the Stock Market. An Extreme Gradient Boosting Modelling was conducted in Python using historical data set from Kaggle, the historical data set spanning all current 500 companies listed. An invariable importance feature was plotted. The results displayed that Kinetic Bands, derived from (KE) are very influential as features or technical indicators of stock market trends. Furthermore, experiments done through this invention provide tangible evidence of the empirical aspects of it. The machine learning code has low chances of error if all the proper procedures and coding are in play. The experiment samples are attached to this study for future references or scrutiny.

A Critical Literature Review on Rock Petrophysical Properties Estimation from Images Based on Direct Simulation and Machine Learning Techniques

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmed Samir Rizk ◽  
Moussa Tembely ◽  
Waleed AlAmeri ◽  
Emad W. Al-Shalabi
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Literature Review ◽  
Training Data ◽  
Rock Properties ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Petrophysical Properties ◽  
Direct Simulation ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting

Abstract Estimation of petrophysical properties is essential for accurate reservoir predictions. In recent years, extensive work has been dedicated into training different machine-learning (ML) models to predict petrophysical properties of digital rock using dry rock images along with data from single-phase direct simulations, such as lattice Boltzmann method (LBM) and finite volume method (FVM). The objective of this paper is to present a comprehensive literature review on petrophysical properties estimation from dry rock images using different ML workflows and direct simulation methods. The review provides detailed comparison between different ML algorithms that have been used in the literature to estimate porosity, permeability, tortuosity, and effective diffusivity. In this paper, various ML workflows from the literature are screened and compared in terms of the training data set, the testing data set, the extracted features, the algorithms employed as well as their accuracy. A thorough description of the most commonly used algorithms is also provided to better understand the functionality of these algorithms to encode the relationship between the rock images and their respective petrophysical properties. The review of various ML workflows for estimating rock petrophysical properties from dry images shows that models trained using features extracted from the image (physics-informed models) outperformed models trained on the dry images directly. In addition, certain tree-based ML algorithms, such as random forest, gradient boosting, and extreme gradient boosting can produce accurate predictions that are comparable to deep learning algorithms such as deep neural networks (DNNs) and convolutional neural networks (CNNs). To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work dedicated to exploring and comparing between different ML frameworks that have recently been used to accurately and efficiently estimate rock petrophysical properties from images. This work will enable other researchers to have a broad understanding about the topic and help in developing new ML workflows or further modifying exiting ones in order to improve the characterization of rock properties. Also, this comparison represents a guide to understand the performance and applicability of different ML algorithms. Moreover, the review helps the researchers in this area to cope with digital innovations in porous media characterization in this fourth industrial age – oil and gas 4.0.

scholarly journals Predicting Adverse Drug Events in Chinese Pediatric Inpatients With the Associated Risk Factors: A Machine Learning Study

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ze Yu ◽  
Huanhuan Ji ◽  
Jianwen Xiao ◽  
Ping Wei ◽  
Lin Song ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Risk Factors ◽  
Adverse Drug Events ◽  
Length Of Hospital Stay ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Multiple Risk Factors ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting ◽  
Novel Method ◽  
Associated Risk Factors ◽  
Medical University

The aim of this study was to apply machine learning methods to deeply explore the risk factors associated with adverse drug events (ADEs) and predict the occurrence of ADEs in Chinese pediatric inpatients. Data of 1,746 patients aged between 28 days and 18 years (mean age = 3.84 years) were included in the study from January 1, 2013, to December 31, 2015, in the Children’s Hospital of Chongqing Medical University. There were 247 cases of ADE occurrence, of which the most common drugs inducing ADEs were antibacterials. Seven algorithms, including eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), CatBoost, AdaBoost, LightGBM, Random Forest (RF), Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT), and TPOT, were used to select the important risk factors, and GBDT was chosen to establish the prediction model with the best predicting abilities (precision = 44%, recall = 25%, F1 = 31.88%). The GBDT model has better performance than Global Trigger Tools (GTTs) for ADE prediction (precision 44 vs. 13.3%). In addition, multiple risk factors were identified via GBDT, such as the number of trigger true (TT) (+), number of doses, BMI, number of drugs, number of admission, height, length of hospital stay, weight, age, and number of diagnoses. The influencing directions of the risk factors on ADEs were displayed through Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). This study provides a novel method to accurately predict adverse drug events in Chinese pediatric inpatients with the associated risk factors, which may be applicable in clinical practice in the future.

scholarly journals Prediction of Radiation Pneumonitis With Machine Learning in Stage III Lung Cancer: A Pilot Study

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 ◽  
pp. 153303382110163
Author(s):  
Melek Yakar ◽  
Durmus Etiz ◽  
Muzaffer Metintas ◽  
Guntulu Ak ◽  
Ozer Celik
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Lung Cancer ◽  
Radiation Pneumonitis ◽  
Stage Iii ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Volume Number ◽  
Light Gradient ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting

Background: Radiation pneumonitis (RP) is a dose-limiting toxicity in lung cancer radiotherapy (RT). As risk factors in the development of RP, patient and tumor characteristics, dosimetric parameters, and treatment features are intertwined, and it is not always possible to associate RP with a single parameter. This study aimed to determine the algorithm that most accurately predicted RP development with machine learning. Methods: Of the 197 cases diagnosed with stage III lung cancer and underwent RT and chemotherapy between 2014 and 2020, 193 were evaluated. The CTCAE 5.0 grading system was used for the RP evaluation. Synthetic minority oversampling technique was used to create a balanced data set. Logistic regression, artificial neural networks, eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGB), Support Vector Machines, Random Forest, Gaussian Naive Bayes and Light Gradient Boosting Machine algorithms were used. After the correlation analysis, a permutation-based method was utilized for as a variable selection. Results: RP was seen in 51 of the 193 cases. Parameters affecting RP were determined as, total(t)V5, ipsilateral lung Dmax, contralateral lung Dmax, total lung Dmax, gross tumor volume, number of chemotherapy cycles before RT, tumor size, lymph node localization and asbestos exposure. LGBM was found to be the algorithm that best predicted RP at 85% accuracy (confidence interval: 0.73-0.96), 97% sensitivity, and 50% specificity. Conclusion: When the clinical and dosimetric parameters were evaluated together, the LGBM algorithm had the highest accuracy in predicting RP. However, in order to use this algorithm in clinical practice, it is necessary to increase data diversity and the number of patients by sharing data between centers.

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