Unhealthy alcohol use is an independent risk factor for increased COVID-19 disease severity: observational cross-sectional study (Preprint)
BACKGROUND Unhealthy alcohol use (UAU) is known to disrupt pulmonary immune mechanisms and increase the risk of acute respiratory distress syndrome in patients with pneumonia; however, little is known about the effects of UAU on outcomes in patients with COVID-19 pneumonia. To our knowledge, this is the first observational cross-sectional study that aims to understand the effect of UAU on the severity of COVID-19 disease. OBJECTIVE We aim to determine if UAU is associated with more severe clinical presentation and worse health outcomes related to COVID-19 and if socioeconomic status, smoking, age, body mass index (BMI), race/ethnicity, and pattern of alcohol use modify the risk. METHODS In this observational cross-sectional study, we ran a digital machine learning classifier on the electronic health record of patients who tested positive via nasopharyngeal swab for SARS-CoV-2 or had two COVID-19 international classification of disease codes to identify patients with UAU. We then performed a multivariable regression to examine the relationship between UAU and COVID-19 severity as measured by hospital care level, i.e. emergency department admission, emergency department admission with ventilator, or death. We used a predefined cutoff of 0.15 (optimal sensitivity and specificity) on the digital classifier to compare disease severity in patients with versus without UAU. Models were adjusted for age, sex, race/ethnicity, BMI, smoking status, and insurance status. RESULTS Each incremental increase in the predicted probability from the digital alcohol classifier was associated with a greater odds risk for more severe COVID-19 disease(OR 1.15, 95% CI: 1.10 - 1.20). Using the predefined cut-off of 0.15 to group patients into binary unhealthy alcohol group or not, we found that the unhealthy alcohol group had a greater odds risk to develop more severe disease (OR = 1.89, 95% CI: 1.17 - 3.06), suggesting that alcohol positive classification was associated with a 89% increase in the odds of being in a higher severity category. CONCLUSIONS In patients infected with SARS-CoV-2, UAU is an independent risk factor associated with greater disease severity and/or death.