scholarly journals Projection of land use to 2030 and its impacts on water availability in a brazilian sub-basin: A LCM and SWAT approach

2022 ◽  
Vol 61 (1) ◽  
pp. 66-87
Author(s):  
Adriana Paulo de Sousa Oliveira ◽  
Rafaela Ribeiro Gracelli ◽  
Arthur Amaral e Silva ◽  
Vitor Juste dos Santos ◽  
Jackeline De Siqueira Castro ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Resources Management ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Water Security ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Southeastern Brazil ◽  
Resources Management

Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) can result in significant changes in a hydrographic ba- sin flow regime. Future projections about LULC and its interference with water availability help to identify extreme events in advance and help propose appropriate management measures. Thus, this study aimed to make the LULC projection for the year 2030 for the Alto Rio Grande (ARG) sub- basin, located in Southeastern Brazil. This region was chosen because of its intense water resources use and for having recently faced water scarcity as result of prolonged droughts and inadequate water resources management. To identify the LULC trend for the year 2030, the Land Change Modeler (LCM) was used, the map obtained was inserted in the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model previously calibrated and validated for the region’ environmental and climatic conditions. The ARG sub-basin was affected by heavy rains in 2011, which resulted in changes in the landscape due to landslides. This particularity of the region contributed to the projection of LULC for the year 2030 to present an increase in forest and pastures to the agricultural areas detriment. When evaluating the impacts of these changes in water availability, it was observed that the SWAT model presented, for the same rainfall conditions, a reduction in peak streamflows of up to 59% and a reduction in the average monthly flow of up to 63% in 2030 in relation to the LULC observed in 2017. Thus, this study provides an important contribution by identifying a considerable reduction in water availability. These results will help to formulate strategies for water resources management and the adoption of measures to promote water security in the region.

scholarly journals MODEL OF CLIMATE AND LAND-USE CHANGES IMPACT ON WATER SECURITY IN AMBON CITY, INDONESIA

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 97 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roland Alexander Barkey ◽  
Muh Faisal Mappiasse ◽  
Munajat Nursaputra
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Planning ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Water Security ◽  
Forest Area ◽  
Residential Areas ◽  
The Impact

Ambon City is the center of national activities in Maluku province, established under Presidential Decree 77 issued in 2014 about spatial planning of Maluku Islands. Ambon is a strategic region in terms of development in agriculture and fisheries sectors. Development of the region caused this area to be extremely vulnerable to the issues on water security. Seven watersheds which are Air Manis, Hutumury, Passo, Tulehu, Wae Batu Merah, Wae Lela and Wae Sikula affect the water system in Ambon City. Therefore, this study was conducted to determine the impact of climate and land use change on water availability in seven watersheds in Ambon City. The analysis was performed using a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) Model in order to analyze climate changes on the period of 1987-1996 (past), of 2004-2013 (present) and climate projection on the period 2035s (future) and equally to analyze land use data in 1996 and 2014. The results of the research indicated that land use in the study area has changed since 1996 to 2014. Forest area decreased around 32.45%, while residential areas and agriculture land increased 56.01% and 19.80%, respectively. The results of SWAT model presented the water availability amount to 1127.01 million m3/year on the period of 1987-1996. During the period of 2004-2013, it has been reduced to 1,076.55 million m3/year (around 4.48% decrease). The results of the prediction of future water availability in the period of 2035s estimated a decrease of water availability around 4.69% (1,026.09 million m3/year). Land use and climate change have greatly contributed to the water availability in seven watersheds of Ambon City. Ambon City is in need of land use planning especially the application of spatial plan. The maintenance of forest area is indispensable. In built-up areas, it is essential to implement green space and water harvesting in order to secure water availability in the future.

Land use and cover changes related to green and blue infrastructure planning for water resources management based on a Budyko framework

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ping Yu Fan ◽  
Kwok Pan Chun ◽  
Ana Mijic ◽  
Mou Leong Tan ◽  
Omer Yetemen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Resources Management ◽  
Land Use Planning ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Underlying Mechanism ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Catchment Scale ◽  
Resources Management

<p>Based on the interplays between land use and water resources, the green and blue infrastructure (GBI) is a central landscape approach for hydrological environment management. However, evidence-based principles of regional GBI planning are not well developed. The Budyko framework is widely used to explore water balance in land-use change studies. It provides a method to relate land use changes and streamflow variations based on two indices – the evaporative index (EI) and the dryness index (DI). Using the Dongjiang River Basin (DJ) as an example, we use the Geographically Weighted Principal Components Analysis (GWPCA) with adaptive kernels to classify the dominant land types based on local spatial variances. Then, we apply the Emerging Hot Spots Analysis (EHSA) to identify spatial-temporal hotspots of EI and DI for the Budyko analysis. From the EHSA, two wet years (1998 and 2016) and three dry years (2004, 2009, and 2018) are focused to investigate how land uses are related to water resources in different climatic conditions. On both catchment and hotspot scales, movements within the Budyko space are observed. These movements illustrate the associations between land use and hydrological response. These data-driven relationships can be used to explain the underlying mechanism of catchment forms (land surface property) and functions (evapotranspiration and runoff) for setting best practices for land use planning. Specifically, our results show that planners should consider to 1) reduce the area of croplands and trees, while increase the extent of grassland and water body on a catchment scale; and 2) increase rain fed croplands, broadleaved evergreen trees, and grasslands in the upstream catchment. Overall, this study highlights the scale considerations in land use planning, and land use strategies are developed based on reanalysis data and remote sensing products for catchment water resources management.</p><p></p><p></p>

scholarly journals A Review of SWAT Model Application in Africa

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 1313
Author(s):  
George Akoko ◽  
Tu Hoang Le ◽  
Takashi Gomi ◽  
Tasuku Kato
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Model Parameterization ◽  
Basin Scale

The soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) is a well-known hydrological modeling tool that has been applied in various hydrologic and environmental simulations. A total of 206 studies over a 15-year period (2005–2019) were identified from various peer-reviewed scientific journals listed on the SWAT website database, which is supported by the Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD). These studies were categorized into five areas, namely applications considering: water resources and streamflow, erosion and sedimentation, land-use management and agricultural-related contexts, climate-change contexts, and model parameterization and dataset inputs. Water resources studies were applied to understand hydrological processes and responses in various river basins. Land-use and agriculture-related context studies mainly analyzed impacts and mitigation measures on the environment and provided insights into better environmental management. Erosion and sedimentation studies using the SWAT model were done to quantify sediment yield and evaluate soil conservation measures. Climate-change context studies mainly demonstrated streamflow sensitivity to weather changes. The model parameterization studies highlighted parameter selection in streamflow analysis, model improvements, and basin scale calibrations. Dataset inputs mainly compared simulations with rain-gauge and global rainfall data sources. The challenges and advantages of the SWAT model’s applications, which range from data availability and prediction uncertainties to the model’s capability in various applications, are highlighted. Discussions on considerations for future simulations such as data sharing, and potential for better future analysis are also highlighted. Increased efforts in local data availability and a multidimensional approach in future simulations are recommended.

scholarly journals Evaluating and Predicting the Effects of Land Use Changes on Hydrology in Wami River Basin, Tanzania

Hydrology ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 17 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sekela Twisa ◽  
Shija Kazumba ◽  
Mathew Kurian ◽  
Manfred F. Buchroithner
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
River System ◽  
Least Squares Regression ◽  
Natural Forests ◽  
The Impact

Understanding the variation in the hydrological response of a basin associated with land use changes is essential for developing management strategies for water resources. The impact of hydrological changes caused by expected land use changes may be severe for the Wami river system, given its role as a crucial area for water, providing food and livelihoods. The objective of this study is to examine the influence of land use changes on various elements of the hydrological processes of the basin. Hybrid classification, which includes unsupervised and supervised classification techniques, is used to process the images (2000 and 2016), while CA–Markov chain analysis is used to forecast and simulate the 2032 land use state. In the current study, a combined approach—including a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and Partial Least Squares Regression (PLSR)—is used to explore the influences of individual land use classes on fluctuations in the hydrological components. From the study, it is evident that land use has changed across the basin since 2000 (which is expected to continue in 2032), as well as that the hydrological effects caused by land use changes were observed. It has been found that the major land use changes that affected hydrology components in the basin were expansion of cultivation land, built-up area and grassland, and decline in natural forests and woodland during the study period. These findings provide baseline information for decision-makers and stakeholders concerning land and water resources for better planning and management decisions in the basin resources’ use.

scholarly journals Experience in Improvement of the Water Sector Institutional Structures

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
Central Asia ◽  
Water Resources Management ◽  
Integrated Management ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Water Sector ◽  
Resources Management ◽  
Water Users ◽  
Institutional Structures ◽  
Water Legislation

Experience of the Central Asia countries in the sphere of reorming of institutional structures responsible for water resources management has been investigated. The outcomes of the works aimed at studying of the results of the integrated management principles application in order to improve structures and methods of water resources management are presented. These outputs enable to reveal special features of the approaches to the management problems solution in the conditions of available water resources abundance and lack in countries with different economic and natural/climatic conditions. The experience was summed up and the typical trends in the water sector management improvement accumulated in the Central Asia countries, as well as the date from other countries with the similar problems including NICs with centralized administrative systems, regions with the many-century traditions of irrigation farming, as well as the countries of transitional economy were revealed. Studying of many countries’ experience concerning adiption of the water resources integrated management allows us to state that there is no sungle ideal or universal model of transition from spatial/territorial management to basin management, no model which can be applied to any country. Analysis of the water resources management systems and institutions enables to formulate the main conditions for effective application of water resources integrated management principles. The paper notes that in spite of substantial progess in water resources management attained in the Central Asia countries many problems including practical application of water legislation, taking into account interest of all sectors of national economy, better coordination between ministeries and agencies involved in water resources management, participation of all stakeholders in taking decisions concerning water supply projects, distribution of juridical and financial obligations between water users and government, and insufficient coordination and agreement in actions at international, national andregional levels stay unsolved.

scholarly journals Calibração hidrológica do modelo SWAT em bacia hidrográfica caracterizada pela expansão do cultivo da cana-de-açúcar

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 576
Author(s):  
Letícia Lopes Martins ◽  
Wander Araújo Martins ◽  
Jener Fernando Leite De Moraes ◽  
Mário José Pedro Júnior ◽  
Isabella Clerici De Maria
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Model Calibration ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Sao Paulo ◽  
São Paulo ◽  
Calibration And Validation ◽  
Water Assessment ◽  
Soil And Water

A dificuldade na gestão de recursos hídricos aliada à dinâmica do uso e ocupação do solo em bacias hidrográficas agrícolas são fatores relevantes para a conservação da água e solo. A gestão de bacias hidrográficas, bem como o monitoramento de cenários de expansão agrícola e mudança no uso do solo, podem se beneficiar de ferramentas de modelagem hidrossedimentológica, como o SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool). Entretanto, para que os resultados obtidos sejam confiáveis, os modelos precisam ser calibrados. Objetivou-se, neste trabalho, calibrar e validar o modelo SWAT, para a variável vazão, tendo como base a bacia hidrográfica do Ribeirão do Pinhal, Limeira -São Paulo, que se caracteriza pela expansão da cana-de-açúcar sobre áreas citrícolas. Dados de vazão de um posto fluviométrico localizado no exutório da bacia foram utilizados para a calibração e validação, a partir de séries temporais diferentes.  Utilizou-se o software QSWAT para a simulação hidrológica e o SWAT-CUP para a calibração e validação do modelo. O modelo foi calibrado e validado resultando nos seguintes índices estatísticos NSE=0,64; PBIAS=15,2 e RSR=0,60 para calibração e NSE=0,68 PBIAS=-2,8 e RSR=0,56 para a validação. O ajuste de parâmetros do SWAT (USLE_P, USLE_C, CN2) e do calendário de operações da cana-de-açúcar em acordo com a situação real da bacia foi necessário para a calibração do modelo. Os resultados indicam que o modelo SWAT subestima as vazões extremas, no entanto, dentro de faixa aceitável. O SWAT, após a calibração, pode ser utilizado na gestão de recursos hídricos na bacia do Ribeirão do Pinhal.Hydrological calibration of the SWAT model in a watershed characterized by the expansion of sugarcane cultivationA B S T R A C TThe difficulty in water resources management combined with the dynamics of land use and occupation in agricultural watersheds are relevant factors for water and soil conservation. River basin management, as well as monitoring scenarios of agricultural expansion and land-use change, can benefit from hydrossedimentological modeling tools such as the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool). However, for the results to be reliable, the models must be calibrated. The objective of this study was to calibrate and validate the SWAT model for the flow variable, based on the Ribeirão do Pinhal watershed, Limeira-São Paulo, which is characterized by the expansion of sugarcane over citrus areas. Flow data from a fluviometric station located in the basin's outfall were used for calibration and validation from different time series. QSWAT software was used for hydrological simulation and SWAT-CUP for model calibration and validation. The model was calibrated and validated resulting in the following statistical indices NSE = 0.64; PBIAS = 15.2 and RSR = 0.60 for calibration and NSE = 0.68 PBIAS = -2.8 and RSR = 0.56 for validation. Adjustment of SWAT parameters (USLE_P, USLE_C, and CN2) and the sugarcane operation schedule according to the actual basin situation was necessary for model calibration. The results indicate that the SWAT model underestimates the extreme flow rates, however, within an acceptable range. After calibration, the SWAT can be used to manage water resources in the Ribeirão do Pinhal basin.Keywords: Hydrologic simulation; land use; flow rate.

scholarly journals Adaptation opportunities for water security in Brazil

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 91-121
Author(s):  
Vânia Rosa Pereira ◽  
Daniel Andrés Rodriguez ◽  
Sonia Maria Viggiani Coutinho ◽  
Diogo Victor Santos ◽  
José Antônio Marengo
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Resources Management ◽  
Water Security ◽  
The Political ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Water Usage ◽  
Domestic Industry ◽  
Resources Management ◽  
Quality Water ◽  
Usage Context

We sought to identify priorities and adaptation opportunities for water security across the various Brazilian biomes. With ever-growing demand and water-usage, future climate scenarios suggest that further water resources management constraints are to be endured throughout the next two decades. The unbalance between high-quality water demand and availability in a multisectoral usage context (e.g., domestic, industry, agribusiness) highlights the socio-ecological Nexus+ concept's relevance. In this context, the political and cross-institutional articulation and flexibility play a significant role in steering adaptative actions. These challenges in defining action plans, adequately addressed at a multiscale level with inherent climatic uncertainties, are yet to be overcome in Brazilian water resources management.  

scholarly journals Changes in Dry-Season Water Availability and Attributions in the Yellow River Basin, China

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fubo Zhao ◽  
Shuai Ma ◽  
Yiping Wu
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Resources Management ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Yellow River ◽  
Yellow River Basin ◽  
Dry Season ◽  
The Yellow River ◽  
Water Fluxes ◽  
Resources Management ◽  
The Yellow River Basin

Global warming will significantly change patterns of precipitation (P) and evapotranspiration (E) and thus the surface water availability (P minus E, P–E). Changes in P–E will challenge freshwater supply, food security, and sustainability of the ecosystems. Therefore, understanding the spatiotemporal change in P–E and its drivers is key for water resources management. Here, we quantified the changes in water availability during the driest month of the year and identified its drivers in the Yellow River Basin (YRB), China, during 1982–2016. Our results showed that 89.6% of the YRB showed declining dry-season water availability in 2000–2016 compared with 1982–1999, although the total dry-season water resources (defined as the proportion of the sum of monthly P–E to the P) remained nearly unchanged due to the increased P. Changes in seasonal P and E contributed to 87.0 and 99.0% declines in dry-season water availability, respectively, demonstrating the key role of E in net seasonal water fluxes. Increased air temperature (41.8%), vegetation greening (30.8%), and vapor pressure deficit (19.2%) were the main factors driving changes in E in the YRB during the study period. Our study highlighted a drier dry season in the YRB during 1982–2016 and illustrated that climate and vegetation changes played important roles in driving changes in dry-season water availability. Seasonal water fluxes must be considered in future water resources management in the YRB, especially in the context of climate warming and revegetation programs.

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