scholarly journals Melanoma risk prediction models

2014 ◽  
Vol 71 (8) ◽  
pp. 757-766
Author(s):  
Jelena Nikolic ◽  
Tatjana Loncar-Turukalo ◽  
Srdjan Sladojevic ◽  
Marija Marinkovic ◽  
Zlata Janjic
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
At Risk ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Significant Risk ◽  
Prognostic Models ◽  
Hair Color ◽  
Melanoma Risk ◽  
Data Mining Algorithms ◽  
Red Hair

Background/Aim. The lack of effective therapy for advanced stages of melanoma emphasizes the importance of preventive measures and screenings of population at risk. Identifying individuals at high risk should allow targeted screenings and follow-up involving those who would benefit most. The aim of this study was to identify most significant factors for melanoma prediction in our population and to create prognostic models for identification and differentiation of individuals at risk. Methods. This case-control study included 697 participants (341 patients and 356 controls) that underwent extensive interview and skin examination in order to check risk factors for melanoma. Pairwise univariate statistical comparison was used for the coarse selection of the most significant risk factors. These factors were fed into logistic regression (LR) and alternating decision trees (ADT) prognostic models that were assessed for their usefulness in identification of patients at risk to develop melanoma. Validation of the LR model was done by Hosmer and Lemeshow test, whereas the ADT was validated by 10-fold cross-validation. The achieved sensitivity, specificity, accuracy and AUC for both models were calculated. The melanoma risk score (MRS) based on the outcome of the LR model was presented. Results. The LR model showed that the following risk factors were associated with melanoma: sunbeds (OR = 4.018; 95% CI 1.724- 9.366 for those that sometimes used sunbeds), solar damage of the skin (OR = 8.274; 95% CI 2.661-25.730 for those with severe solar damage), hair color (OR = 3.222; 95% CI 1.984-5.231 for light brown/blond hair), the number of common naevi (over 100 naevi had OR = 3.57; 95% CI 1.427-8.931), the number of dysplastic naevi (from 1 to 10 dysplastic naevi OR was 2.672; 95% CI 1.572-4.540; for more than 10 naevi OR was 6.487; 95%; CI 1.993-21.119), Fitzpatricks phototype and the presence of congenital naevi. Red hair, phototype I and large congenital naevi were only present in melanoma patients and thus were strongly associated with melanoma. The percentage of correctly classified subjects in the LR model was 74.9%, sensitivity 71%, specificity 78.7% and AUC 0.805. For the ADT percentage of correctly classified instances was 71.9%, sensitivity 71.9%, specificity 79.4% and AUC 0.808. Conclusion. Application of different models for risk assessment and prediction of melanoma should provide efficient and standardized tool in the hands of clinicians. The presented models offer effective discrimination of individuals at high risk, transparent decision making and real-time implementation suitable for clinical practice. A continuous melanoma database growth would provide for further adjustments and enhancements in model accuracy as well as offering a possibility for successful application of more advanced data mining algorithms.

scholarly journals Hand Edema in Patients at Risk of Breast Cancer–Related Lymphedema: Health Professionals Should Take Notice

2018 ◽  
Vol 98 (6) ◽  
pp. 510-517 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cheryl L Brunelle ◽  
Meyha N Swaroop ◽  
Melissa N Skolny ◽  
Maria S Asdourian ◽  
Hoda E Sayegh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Breast Cancer ◽  
Risk Factors ◽  
At Risk ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Clinical Examination ◽  
Screening Program ◽  
Significant Risk ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
Subjective Data ◽  
Breast Cancer Related Lymphedema

Abstract Background There is little research on hand edema in the population at risk for breast cancer–related lymphedema (BCRL). Objectives Study aims included reporting potential importance of hand edema (HE) as a risk factor for progression of edema in patients treated for breast cancer at risk for BCRL, reporting risk factors for BCRL, and reporting treatment of HE. Design/Methods This was a retrospective analysis of 9 patients treated for breast cancer in Massachusetts General Hospital's lymphedema screening program who presented with isolated HE. Limb volumes via perometry, BCRL risk factors, and HE treatment are reported. Results Edema was mostly isolated to the hand. Three patients had arm edema >5% on perometry; and 2 of these had edema outside the hand on clinical examination. Patients were at high risk of BCRL with an average of 2.9/5 known risk factors. Arm edema progressed to >10% in 2 high-risk patients. Treatment resulted in an average hand volume reduction of 10.2% via perometry and improvement upon clinical examination. Limitations The small sample size and lack of validated measures of subjective data were limitations. Conclusions In this cohort, patients with HE carried significant risk factors for BCRL. Two out of 9 (22%), both carrying ≥4/5 risk factors, progressed to edema >10%. Isolated HE may be a prognostic factor for edema progression in patients treated for breast cancer at risk for BCRL. Further research is warranted.

scholarly journals Problem-Orientated Antenatal Notekeeping: A Useful Primary Health Care Tool

Curationis ◽  
1978 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
J.V. Larsen
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Health Care ◽  
Primary Health Care ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Significant Risk ◽  
Obstetric Care ◽  
Antenatal Screening ◽  
Primary Health ◽  
Risk Patients

It has recently been demonstrated that about 56 percent of patients delivering in a rural obstetric unit had significant risk factors, and that 85 percent of these could have been detected by meticulous antenatal screening before the onset of labour. These figures show that the average rural obstetric unit in South Africa is dealing with a large percentage of high risk patients. In this work, it is hampered by: 1. Communications problems: i.e. bad roads, long distances. and unpredictable telephones. 2. A serious shortage of medical staff resulting in primary obstetric care being delivered by midwives with minimal medical supervision.

scholarly journals Risk Factors and Prediction Models for Venous Thromboembolism in Ambulatory Patients with Lung Cancer

Healthcare ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 778
Author(s):  
Ann-Rong Yan ◽  
Indira Samarawickrema ◽  
Mark Naunton ◽  
Gregory M. Peterson ◽  
Desmond Yip ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Lung Cancer ◽  
Venous Thromboembolism ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Poor Performance ◽  
Risk Models ◽  
Related Risk ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Ambulatory Patients

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a significant cause of mortality in patients with lung cancer. Despite the availability of a wide range of anticoagulants to help prevent thrombosis, thromboprophylaxis in ambulatory patients is a challenge due to its associated risk of haemorrhage. As a result, anticoagulation is only recommended in patients with a relatively high risk of VTE. Efforts have been made to develop predictive models for VTE risk assessment in cancer patients, but the availability of a reliable predictive model for ambulate patients with lung cancer is unclear. We have analysed the latest information on this topic, with a focus on the lung cancer-related risk factors for VTE, and risk prediction models developed and validated in this group of patients. The existing risk models, such as the Khorana score, the PROTECHT score and the CONKO score, have shown poor performance in external validations, failing to identify many high-risk individuals. Some of the newly developed and updated models may be promising, but their further validation is needed.

EMA-CO chemotherapy for high-risk gestational trophoblastic neoplasia: a clinical analysis of 54 patients

2008 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 357-362 ◽  
Author(s):  
W.-G. Lu ◽  
F. Ye ◽  
Y.-M. Shen ◽  
Y.-F. Fu ◽  
H.-Z. Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Survival Rate ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Complete Remission ◽  
Univariate Analysis ◽  
Significant Risk ◽  
Clinical Analysis ◽  
Secondary Malignancy ◽  
Primary Therapy ◽  
Gestational Trophoblastic Neoplasia

This study was designed to analyze the outcomes of chemotherapy for high-risk gestational trophoblastic neoplasia (GTN) with EMA-CO regimen as primary and secondary protocol in China. Fifty-four patients with high-risk GTN received 292 EMA/CO treatment cycles between 1996 and 2005. Forty-five patients were primarily treated with EMA-CO, and nine were secondarily treated after failure to other combination chemotherapy. Adjuvant surgery and radiotherapy were used in the selected patients. Response, survival and related risk factors, as well as chemotherapy complications, were retrospectively analyzed. Thirty-five of forty-five patients (77.8%) receiving EMA-CO as first-line treatment achieved complete remission, and 77.8% (7/9) as secondary treatment. The overall survival rate was 87.0% in all high-risk GTN patients, with 93.3% (42/45) as primary therapy and 55.6% (5/9) as secondary therapy. The survival rates were significantly different between two groups (χ2= 6.434, P = 0.011). Univariate analysis showed that the metastatic site and the number of metastatic organs were significant risk factors, but binomial distribution logistic regression analysis revealed that only the number of metastatic organs was an independent risk factor for the survival rate. No life-threatening toxicity and secondary malignancy were found. EMA-EP regimen was used for ten patients who were resistant to EMA-CO and three who relapsed after EMA-CO. Of those, 11 patients (84.6%) achieved complete remission. We conclude that EMA-CO regimen is an effective and safe primary therapy for high-risk GTN, but not an appropriate second-line protocol. The number of metastatic organs is an independent prognostic factor for the patient with high-risk GTN. EMA-EP regimen is a highly effective salvage therapy for those failing to EMA-CO.

Epidemiology of cancer-associated venous thrombosis

Blood ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 122 (10) ◽  
pp. 1712-1723 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jasmijn F. Timp ◽  
Sigrid K. Braekkan ◽  
Henri H. Versteeg ◽  
Suzanne C. Cannegieter
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Venous Thrombosis ◽  
Cancer Patients ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Related Factors ◽  
Treatment Measures ◽  
Risk Patients ◽  
Cancer Types

Abstract Cancer-associated venous thrombosis is a common condition, although the reported incidence varies widely between studies depending on patient population, start and duration of follow-up, and the method of detecting and reporting thrombotic events. Furthermore, as cancer is a heterogeneous disease, the risk of venous thrombosis depends on cancer types and stages, treatment measures, and patient-related factors. In general, cancer patients with venous thrombosis do not fare well and have an increased mortality compared with cancer patients without. This may be explained by the more aggressive type of malignancies associated with this condition. It is hypothesized that thromboprophylaxis in cancer patients might improve prognosis and quality of life by preventing thrombotic events. However, anticoagulant treatment leads to increased bleeding, particularly in this patient group, so in case of proven benefit of thromboprophylaxis, only patients with a high risk of venous thrombosis should be considered. This review describes the literature on incidence of and risk factors for cancer-associated venous thrombosis, with the aim to provide a basis for identification of high-risk patients and for further development and refinement of prediction models. Furthermore, knowledge on risk factors for cancer-related venous thrombosis may enhance the understanding of the pathophysiology of thrombosis in these patients.

scholarly journals ПОРІВНЯЛЬНА ХАРАКТЕРИСТИКА ФАКТОРІВ РИЗИКУ

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
І. К. Чурпій
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Myocardial Infarction ◽  
Pulmonary Embolism ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Significant Risk ◽  
Female Gender ◽  
Electrolyte Composition ◽  
Terminal Phase ◽  
Phase Flow ◽  
History Of

<p>To optimize the therapeutic tactics and improve the treatment of peritonitis on the basis of retrospective analysis there are determined the significant risk factors: female gender, age 60 – 90 years, time to hospitalization for more than 48 hours, a history of myocardial infarction, stroke, cardiac arrhythmia, biliary, fecal and fibrinous purulent exudate, the terminal phase flow, operations with resection of the intestine and postoperative complications such as pulmonary embolism, myocardial infarction, pleurisy, early intestinal obstruction. Changes in the electrolyte composition of blood and lower albumin &lt;35 % of high risk prognostic course of peritonitis that requires immediate correction in the pre-and postoperative periods. The combination of three or more risk factors for various systems, creating a negative outlook for further treatment and the patient's life.</p>

Abstract 2701: Multicenter Study For Prediction And Validation Of Intracranial Hemorrhage Risk In The Natural History Of Brain Arteriovenous Malformation Patients

Stroke ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 43 (suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Helen Kim ◽  
Tony Pourmohamad ◽  
Charles E McCulloch ◽  
Michael T Lawton ◽  
Jay P Mohr ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Natural History ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Intracranial Hemorrhage ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Venous Drainage ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Natural Course

Background: BAVM is an important cause of intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) in younger persons. Accurate and reliable prediction models for determining ICH risk in the natural history course of BAVM patients are needed to help guide management. The purpose of this study was to develop a prediction model of ICH risk, and validate the performance independently using the Multicenter AVM Research Study (MARS). Methods: We used 3 BAVM cohorts from MARS: the UCSF Brain AVM Study Project (n=726), Columbia AVM Study (COL, n=640), and Scottish Intracranial Vascular Malformation Study (SIVMS, n=218). Cox proportional hazards analysis of time-to-ICH in the natural course after diagnosis was performed, censoring patients at first treatment, death, or last visit, up to 10 years. UCSF served as the model development cohort. We chose a simple model, including known risk factors that are reliably measured across cohorts (age at diagnosis, gender, initial hemorrhagic presentation, and deep venous drainage); variables were included without regard to statistical significance. Tertiles of predicted probabilities corresponding to low, medium, and high risk were obtained from UCSF and risk thresholds were validated in COL and SIVMS using Kaplan-Meier survival curves and log-rank tests (to assess whether the model discriminated between risk categories). Results: Overall, 82 ICH events occurred during the natural course: 28 in UCSF, 41 in COL, and 13 in SIVMS. Effects in the prediction model (estimated from UCSF data) were: age in decades (HR=1.1, 95% CI=0.9-1.4, P=0.41), initial hemorrhagic presentation (HR=3.6, 95% CI=1.5-8.6, P=0.01), male gender (HR=1.1, 95% CI=0.48-2.6; P=0.81), and deep venous drainage (HR=0.8, 95% CI=0.2-2.8 P=0.72). Tertiles of ICH risk are shown in the Figure , demonstrating good separation of curves into low, medium and high risk after 3 years in UCSF (left, log-rank P=0.05). The model validated well in the COL referral cohort with better discrimination of curves (middle, P<0.001). In SIMVS, a population-based study, the model separated curves in the earlier years but a consistent pattern was not observed (right, P=0.51), possibly due to the small number of ICH events. Conclusion: Our current prediction model for predicting ICH risk in the natural history course validates well in another referral population, but not as well in a population cohort. Inclusion of additional cohorts and risk factors after data harmonization may improve overall prediction and discrimination of ICH risk, and provide a generalizable model for clinical application.

Abstract 91: Are At Risk Outpatient Cardiology Patients being Appropriately Evaluated for Lower Extremity PAD as Recommended by ACC/AHA Guidelines?

2012 ◽  
Vol 5 (suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rajesh M Kabadi ◽  
Ankitkumar Patel ◽  
Rajani Sharma ◽  
Rita Schmidt ◽  
Elias Iliadis
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
At Risk ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Lower Extremity ◽  
Peripheral Artery Disease ◽  
Ankle Brachial Index ◽  
Heart Association ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Peripheral Artery ◽  
Artery Disease

Background: Lower extremity peripheral artery disease (PAD) is a common syndrome that afflicts many individuals and leads to significant morbidity. Once appropriate at risk patients are identified, ankle-brachial index (ABI) testing is a relatively quick and inexpensive test that is recommended for proper assessment of PAD, per the recommendations outlined in the American College of Cardiology (ACC)/American Heart Association (AHA) Guidelines for the Management of Peripheral Artery Disease (PAD) (JACC, 2006). Outpatient cardiology practices often take care of individuals at risk for PAD and have the opportunity to test and appropriately treat this condition. Methods: A randomly selected group of 367 outpatients seen in a large academic cardiology practice from September 2011 underwent retrospective chart review. Risk factors for PAD that were assessed include history of smoking, hypertension, diabetes, hyperlipidemia, homocysteine levels, and CRP. Those that had three or more risk factors were classified as high risk and those with less than that were classified as low risk and frequency of ABI testing was evaluated. Fishers exact test was utilized for statistical analysis. Results: Fifty-one percent (N=187) of our population were classified as high risk for PAD, forty-three percent (N=158) were low risk, and six percent (N=22) were known to already have PAD. Amongst the high risk individuals, only six percent (N=12) had ABI testing performed while there were three percent (N=6) of low risk individuals that had this test (p=-0.34). Conclusions: There was no difference in ABI testing between high and low risk populations. Limitations of this study include lack of information regarding other diagnostic modalities that may have been used in place of ABI testing. Quality improvement may be achieved by increased use of such testing as this would allow for quicker identification of the disease, prompter treatment, and better outcomes, at a minimal cost.

Second Primary Melanoma: Risk Factors, Histopathologic Features, Survival, and Implications for Follow-Up

2016 ◽  
Vol 82 (10) ◽  
pp. 1009-1013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maris S. Jones ◽  
Hitoe Torisu-Itakura ◽  
Devin C. Flaherty ◽  
Hans F. Schoellhammer ◽  
Jihey Lee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Cutaneous Melanoma ◽  
Primary Melanoma ◽  
Second Primary ◽  
Melanoma Risk ◽  
Impact On Survival ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Histopathologic Features

The impact on survival of a second primary melanoma (SPM) is unclear. We used our melanoma center's database to examine clinicopathologic risk factors and outcomes of stage 0 to IV cutaneous melanoma in patients with one versus two primaries. Among 12,325 patients with primary melanoma, 969 (7.86%) developed SPM. SPMs were significantly thinner than autologous primary melanomas ( P = 0.01), and 451 SPM patients had better overall and melanoma-specific survival than 451 prognostically matched non-SPM patients ( P < 0.0001 and 0.0001, respectively) at a median follow-up of 142.37 months. Patients with cutaneous melanoma are at high risk for development of SPM, but the development of SPM does not seem to impair survival.

A PRELIMINARY STUDY OF RISK FACTORS OF BREAST CANCER AND THE USEFULNESS OF BREAST MRI AS AN ADDITION TO MAMMOGRAPHY IN DETECTING BREAST CANCER IN HIGH RISK WOMEN

2016 ◽  
Vol 78 (11-3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Noor Khairiah A. Karim ◽  
Rohayu Hami ◽  
Nur Hashamimi Hashim ◽  
Nizuwan Azman ◽  
Ibrahim Lutfi Shuaib
Keyword(s):  
Breast Cancer ◽  
Risk Factors ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Cancer Detection ◽  
Significant Risk ◽  
Breast Mri ◽  
Breast Cancer Detection ◽  
P Value ◽  
High Risk Women ◽  
History Of

The risk factors of breast cancer among women, such as genetic, family history and lifestyle factors, can be divided into high-, intermediate- and average-risk. Determining these risk factors may actually help in preventing breast cancer occurrence. Besides that, screening of breast cancer which include mammography, can be done in promoting early breast cancer detection. Breast magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) has been recommended as a supplemental screening tool in high risk women. The aim of this study was to identify the significant risk factor of breast cancer among women and also to determine the usefulness of breast MRI as an addition to mammography in detection of breast cancer in high risk women. This retrospective cohort study design was conducted using patients’ data taken from those who underwent mammography for screening or diagnostic purposes in Advanced Medical and Dental Institute, Universiti Sains Malaysia, from 2007 until 2015. Data from 289 subjects were successfully retrieved and analysed based on their risk factors of breast cancer. Meanwhile, data from 120 subjects who had high risks and underwent both mammography and breast MRI were further analysed. There were two significant risk factors of breast cancer seen among the study population: family history of breast cancer (p-value=0.012) and previous history of breast or ovarian cancer (p-value <0.001). Breast MRI demonstrated high sensitivity (90%) while mammography demonstrated high specificity (80%) in detection of breast cancer in all 120 subjects. The number of cases of breast cancer detection using breast MRI [46 (38.3%)] was higher compared to mammography [24 (20.0%)]. However, breast MRI was found to be non-significant as an adjunct tool to mammography in detecting breast cancer in high risk women (p-value=0.189). A comprehensive screening guideline and surveillance of women at high risk is indeed useful and should be implemented to increase cancer detection rate at early stage

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