Nationalization and Partisan Realignment in Congressional Elections

1987 ◽  
Vol 81 (4) ◽  
pp. 1235-1250 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sadafumi Kawato
Keyword(s):  
Variance Components ◽  
Congressional Elections ◽  
Congressional Vote ◽  
Electoral Change ◽  
Partisan Realignment ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
The U.S

The relationship between nationalization of the U.S. electorate and partisan realignment is explored. Concepts and measurement of nationalization are examined, as well as definitions of electoral change. The British concept of swing is utilized as an appropriate measure of electoral change. Examination of long-term trends in the variances of the congressional vote and swing from 1842 to 1980 shows they are related to the electoral dynamics of realignment. Analysis utilizing a variance-components model shows there has never been a nationalization in terms of configuration of the electorate. But nationalization in the movement of the electorate has taken place cyclically, corresponding to the partisan realignments of the 1890s and the 1930s, rather than monotonically, as suggested by previous research.

Swing Time: Assessing Causes for Shifts in Congressional Elections

1984 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 222-229 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ronald B. Rapoport
Keyword(s):  
Congressional Elections ◽  
Voting Behaviour ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Electoral Change ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Voter Decision Making ◽  
Sectional Analysis

Most research on voting behaviour and elections has focused on cross-sectional analysis of particular elections. This technique is very useful in telling us about the influences on individual voter decision making. Less commonly research has focused on short-term electoral change, and has tried to explain specific election results with respect to one another, or in relation to long-term trends.

A Climatic Model of Solar Radiation and Temperature Change

1974 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-38 ◽  
Author(s):  
Clayton H. Reitan
Keyword(s):  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Energy Budget ◽  
Temperature Data ◽  
Direct Solar Radiation ◽  
Response Ratio ◽  
Radiation Data ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
The 1960S ◽  
The Relationship

Mean monthly temperatures for the Northern Hemisphere were determined for the years 1955 through 1968 following the same procedures used by H. C. Willett and J. M. Mitchell, Jr., in their studies of long-term trends. It was found that the downward trend they reported starting in the 1940s continued, though interrupted, into the 1960s.The temperature data when combined with radiation data and other components of the hemispheric energy budget led to the formulation of the response ratio, the relationship between change in incoming solar radiation and change in temperature. When this response ratio was applied to the reported trends in direct solar radiation and to the decrease in direct solar radiation following the eruption of Agung in 1963, a probable cause-effect relationship was suggested.

scholarly journals Clients, mandataires et partenaires silencieux : Configurations du conflit américano-soviétique en Asie du Sud-Est

2005 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 109-126
Author(s):  
Justus M. Van Der Kroef
Keyword(s):  
Soviet Union ◽  
Southeast Asian ◽  
Military Assistance ◽  
Socialist Republic ◽  
Major Powers ◽  
The Soviet Union ◽  
International Interaction ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
The U.S

In the Southeast Asian area modalities of political dependence have developed which involve the distinctive typology of clients, silent partners, and proxies. These modalities govern the relationship between the Socialist Republic of Vietnam, Laos, and the People's Republic of Kampuchea. They also are operative in the international interaction between the members of the Association of Southeast Asian nations (Asean) and the Western major powers. A set of strategic cooperative arrangements, as well as direct military assistance between Asean, the Commonwealth and the U.S., has its counterpart in similar relations between the U.S.S.R. and the Hanoi dominated lndo-China alliance. As a result, the U.S.-Soviet confrontation in Southeast Asia is expressed politically and strategically primarily through the proxy relationships with the lndo-China states and key Asean members respectively. In turn, there are strong undercurrents in Asean seeking an accommodation with Hanoi, in order to minimize the conflict potential in the region generated by opposing U.S. and Soviet strategic interests. Particularly the relatively warming relationship between the U.S. and People's China has strengthened the Asean fears of China s long-term intentions in the region. An independent Vietnam, free from its proxy-client status toward the Soviet Union, could act as a buffer between China and the Southeast Asian region. Since Hanoi, if only for long-standing nationalistic reasons, wishes to be free from its currently necessary dependence on Moscow, Asean's accommodationist interests may well meet with appreciation in Hanoi in the future. This would tend to lessen the effect of the American-Soviet confrontation in the area.

Interpreting House Midterm Elections: Toward a Measurement of the In-Party's “Expected” Loss of Seats

1967 ◽  
Vol 61 (3) ◽  
pp. 694-700 ◽  
Author(s):  
Barbara Hinckley
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Congressional Elections ◽  
The Other ◽  
Large Majority ◽  
Expected Loss ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
House Election ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Election Studies

Midterm congressional elections have been subjected to relatively little analysis. This is surprising because these elections exhibit three quite striking features which, when taken together, call for further explanation. First, every midterm House election since the Civil War, with the exception of 1934, has brought a net loss of seats to the President's party. Second, in the large majority of elections the net loss has approximated the gross loss. The in-party (i.e., the President's party) seldom has captured seats from the other party to offset its own loss. And third, although the in-party's loss has been persistent, the number of seats lost has varied widely.Attempts to incorporate midterm elections into a broader interpretive framework of American election studies usually stress one of the first two features outlined above. The fact that only the in-party loses—and that its losses are mainly in marginal districts—has led commentators such as V. O. Key Jr. and the authors of The American Voter to interpret these midterm elections as part of the stable, long-term trends in voters' party allegiance.

Continuous Plankton Records: Annual Fluctuations of the Plankton in the Western English Channel, 1958–83

1986 ◽  
Vol 66 (4) ◽  
pp. 791-802 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. A. Robinson ◽  
H. G. Hunt
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Factors ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Current Strength ◽  
English Channel ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Temperature Radiation ◽  
Complex Relationships ◽  
Physical Elements ◽  
The Relationship

Surveys of the plankton at a depth of 10 m in the western English Channel have been carried out at monthly intervals from 1958 onwards using Continuous Plankton Recorders to provide data on annual fluctuations in abundance of the plankton. Interpretation of these results has been attempted by empirical associations with environmental factors (salinity, sea-surface temperature, radiation, atmospheric pressure patterns, wind speed and current strength). Principal component analysis has been used to extract the main patterns of change and correlation analysis for assessing the relationship between the plankton and the environmental factors. There are complex relationships between the plankton and all environmental factors, supporting previous conclusions that the long-term changes are mediated through interaction between the plankton and the climate. Spectral analysis showed long-term trends and shorter cycles of six and three to four years in both the biological and physical elements, indicating that changes in the western Channel are responding to changes in climate over a much wider area

scholarly journals Long-Term Trends in Downwelling Spectral Infrared Radiance over the U.S. Southern Great Plains

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (18) ◽  
pp. 4831-4843 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Jonathan Gero ◽  
David D. Turner
Keyword(s):  
Great Plains ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Southern Great Plains ◽  
Infrared Radiance ◽  
Term Change ◽  
Atmospheric Radiation Measurement ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Thin Cloud ◽  
The U.S

Abstract A trend analysis was applied to a 14-yr time series of downwelling spectral infrared radiance observations from the Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer (AERI) located at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program (ARM) site in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. The highly accurate calibration of the AERI instrument, performed every 10 min, ensures that any statistically significant trend in the observed data over this time can be attributed to changes in the atmospheric properties and composition, and not to changes in the sensitivity or responsivity of the instrument. The measured infrared spectra, numbering more than 800 000, were classified as clear-sky, thin cloud, and thick cloud scenes using a neural network method. The AERI data record demonstrates that the downwelling infrared radiance is decreasing over this 14-yr period in the winter, summer, and autumn seasons but it is increasing in the spring; these trends are statistically significant and are primarily due to long-term change in the cloudiness above the site. The AERI data also show many statistically significant trends on annual, seasonal, and diurnal time scales, with different trend signatures identified in the separate scene classifications. Given the decadal time span of the dataset, effects from natural variability should be considered in drawing broader conclusions. Nevertheless, this dataset has high value owing to the ability to infer possible mechanisms for any trends from the observations themselves and to test the performance of climate models.

Long-term Trends in Antidiabetes Drug Usage in the U.S.: Real-world Evidence in Patients Newly Diagnosed With Type 2 Diabetes

Diabetes Care ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 41 (1) ◽  
pp. 69-78 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olga Montvida ◽  
Jonathan Shaw ◽  
John J. Atherton ◽  
Frances Stringer ◽  
Sanjoy K. Paul
Keyword(s):  
Type 2 Diabetes ◽  
Real World ◽  
Newly Diagnosed ◽  
Drug Usage ◽  
Real World Evidence ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
The U.S
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