Observations on the Impact of Uncertainty in Strategic Analysis

1979 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 90-110 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stanley Sienkiewicz
Keyword(s):  
Real World ◽  
Strategic Analysis ◽  
Nuclear Forces ◽  
Political Leaders ◽  
The World ◽  
Actual Use ◽  
National Leaders ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

The effects of uncertainty in strategic analysis are generally not well understood, but are increasingly important in relating the strategic calculations by means of which we evaluate the adequacy of our strategic forces to the deterrence of attack in the world of real political leaders, in real crises. Assumptions must be made about many unknowns and uncertainties—ranging from the behavior of national leaders to the technical characteristics of weapons systems—in order to make the problem calculable. The assumptions we make for purposes of analysis, however, are not necessarily the same as those that political leaders can make in considering the actual use of nuclear forces. This distinction is at the root of the relationship between strategic analysis and real-world deterrence. Systematic examination of the uncertainties in strategic analysis, therefore, can help us to better understand the difference between our analytical model and the real world, and hence to put our strategic problems in better perspective.

scholarly journals A Poorly Understood Disease? The Unequal Distribution of Excess Mortality Due to COVID-19 Across French Municipalities

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Brandily ◽  
Clement Brebion ◽  
Simon Briole ◽  
Laura Khoury
Keyword(s):  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Data Sources ◽  
Housing Conditions ◽  
Unequal Distribution ◽  
The World ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Income Gradient ◽  
The Relationship

While COVID-19 was already responsible for more than 500,000 deaths worldwide as of July 3, 2020, very little is known on the socio-economic heterogeneity of its impact on mortality. In this paper, we combine several administrative data sources to estimate the relationship between mortality due to COVID-19 and poverty at a very local level (i.e. the municipality level) in France, one of the most severely hit country in the world. We find strong evidence of an income gradient in the impact of the pandemic on mortality: it is twice as large in the poorest municipalities compared to other municipalities. We then show that both poor housing conditions and higher occupational exposure are likely mechanisms. Overall, these mechanisms accounts for up to 60% of the difference observed between rich and poor municipalities.

Between a Rock and a Hard Race

2020 ◽  
pp. 54-83
Author(s):  
Andrew Feldherr
Keyword(s):  
Iron Age ◽  
Real World ◽  
Sexual Difference ◽  
Formal Aspect ◽  
Human Race ◽  
Male And Female ◽  
The World ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
The Relationship

Chapter 3 discusses Deucalion and Pyrrha’s regeneration of the human race after the destruction of the flood. The chapter links the hermeneutic ‘transformation’ of stones to bones both to a thematic interest within the narrative in the relationship of the new future to its Iron Age past, and to the readers’ experience of the text before them. The key to perceiving the connections between the content and the real-world presence of Ovid’s text is the phenomenon of sexual difference. Within the narrative, the opposition between male and female encodes the difference between an ordered, stable future and a rebellious past. But this tension also involves the relationship between the new forms imposed on the world and the subsistence of a material stratum that implies sameness. New transformations, like Deucalion’s of bones to stones, struggle to reconfigure reality, while the readings of a Pyrrha threaten to erase this difference. The chapter suggests that Ovid’s foregrounding of gender as a formal aspect of his text helps to create a parallelism between the experience of the reader and the hermeneutic challenges that play out within the story.

Constructing Identity in “Glocal” Politics

1998 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 81-106
Author(s):  
M. A. Muqtedar Khan
Keyword(s):  
Cold War ◽  
International Relations ◽  
World Politics ◽  
Socioeconomic Conditions ◽  
Post Cold War ◽  
Important Concept ◽  
Construction Of Identity ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

This paper seeks to understand the impact of current global politicaland socioeconomic conditions on the construction of identity. I advancean argument based on a two-step logic. First, I challenge the characterizationof current socioeconomic conditions as one of globalization bymarshaling arguments and evidence that strongly suggest that along withglobalization, there are simultaneous processes of localization proliferatingin the world today. I contend that current conditions are indicative ofthings far exceeding the scope of globalization and that they can bedescribed more accurately as ccglocalization.~H’2a ving established thisclaim, I show how the processes of glocalization affect the constructionof Muslim identity.Why do I explore the relationship between glocalization and identityconstruction? Because it is significant. Those conversant with current theoreticaldebates within the discipline of international relations’ are awarethat identity has emerged as a significant explanatory construct in internationalrelations theory in the post-Cold War era.4 In this article, I discussthe emergence of identity as an important concept in world politics.The contemporary field of international relations is defined by threephilosophically distinct research programs? rationalists: constructivists,’and interpretivists.’ The moot issue is essentially a search for the mostimportant variable that can help explain or understand the behavior ofinternational actors and subsequently explain the nature of world politicsin order to minimize war and maximize peace.Rationalists contend that actors are basically rational actors who seekthe maximization of their interests, interests being understood primarilyin material terms and often calculated by utility functions maximizinggiven preferences? Interpretivists include postmodernists, critical theorists,and feminists, all of whom argue that basically the extant worldpolitical praxis or discourses “constitute” international agents and therebydetermine their actions, even as they reproduce world politics by ...

scholarly journals What Difference Does Posthumanism Make?

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
Rachel J. Crellin ◽  
Oliver J.T. Harris
Keyword(s):  
Productive Force ◽  
The World ◽  
The Status ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Relationship

In this paper we argue that to understand the difference Posthumanism makes to the relationship between archaeology, agency and ontology, several misconceptions need to be corrected. First, we emphasize that Posthumanism is multiple, with different elements, meaning any critique needs to be carefully targeted. The approach we advocate is a specifically Deleuzian and explicitly feminist approach to Posthumanism. Second, we examine the status of agency within Posthumanism and suggest that we may be better off thinking about affect. Third, we explore how the approach we advocate treats difference in new ways, not as a question of lack, or as difference ‘from’, but rather as a productive force in the world. Finally, we explore how Posthumanism allows us to re-position the role of the human in archaeology,

scholarly journals The role of L/W in the solar radiation for Saharian cities

2019 ◽  
Vol 91 ◽  
pp. 05006
Author(s):  
Rami Qaoud ◽  
Alkama Djamal
Keyword(s):  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Solar Energy ◽  
Energy Levels ◽  
Direct Solar Radiation ◽  
Test Field ◽  
Natural Lighting ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

The urban fabric of the desert cities is based on the principle of reducing the impact of urban canyons on direct solar radiation. Here comes this research, which is based on a comparative study of the periods of direct solarisation and values of the solar energy of urban canyons via two urban fabrics that have different building densities, where the ratio between L/W is different. In order to obtain the real values of the solar energy (thermal, lighting), the test field was examined every two hours, each three consecutive days. The measurement stations are positioned by the three types of the relationship between L/W, (L≥2w, L=w, L≤0.5w). According to the results, we noticed and recorded the difference in the periods of direct solarization between the types of urban engineering canyons, reaching 6 hours a day, the difference in thermal values of air, reaching 4 °C, and the difference in periods of direct natural lighting, reaching 6 hours. It should be noted that the role of the relationship between L/W is to protect the urban canyons by reducing the impact of direct solar radiation on urban canyons, providing longer hours of shading, and reducing solar energy levels (thermal, lighting) at the urban canyons. This research is classified under the research axis (the studies of external spaces in the urban environment according to the bioclimatic approach and geographic approach). But this research aims to focus on the tracking and studying the distribution of the solar radiation - thermal radiation and lighting radiation - in different types of street canyons by comparing the study of the direct solarization periods of each type and the quantity of solar energy collected during the solarization periods.

scholarly journals Assessing the impact of libraries – the role of ISO 16439

2018 ◽  
Vol 119 (1/2) ◽  
pp. 87-93 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claire Creaser
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
International Standards ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Standard ◽  
The World ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Library Impact ◽  
The Impact

Purpose Library impact and how to evaluate it has been debated for a number of years. While the activity – the busy-ness – of the library is now routinely measured and described, the difference the library makes is less tangible and harder to measure. Libraries in all sectors and worldwide are grappling with this issue, and the purpose of this paper is to summarise international standards available to support them. Design/methodology/approach The first international standard concerning library impact, ISO 16439 Information and documentation – methods and procedures for assessing the impact of libraries, was published in 2014 after several years in development. Findings The standard describes a range of methods for assessing library impact which have been used across the world in a variety of libraries in all sectors. Originality/value This paper summarises the key methods described in the standard, and gives references for further reading.

scholarly journals Hyaluronan and the Fascial Frontier

2021 ◽  
Vol 22 (13) ◽  
pp. 6845
Author(s):  
Rebecca L. Pratt
Keyword(s):  
Nerve Fibers ◽  
The Body ◽  
Water Volume ◽  
Cell Behavior ◽  
Connective Tissues ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The World ◽  
Extracellular Microenvironment ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

The buzz about hyaluronan (HA) is real. Whether found in face cream to increase water volume loss and viscoelasticity or injected into the knee to restore the properties of synovial fluid, the impact of HA can be recognized in many disciplines from dermatology to orthopedics. HA is the most abundant polysaccharide of the extracellular matrix of connective tissues. HA can impact cell behavior in specific ways by binding cellular HA receptors, which can influence signals that facilitate cell survival, proliferation, adhesion, as well as migration. Characteristics of HA, such as its abundance in a variety of tissues and its responsiveness to chemical, mechanical and hormonal modifications, has made HA an attractive molecule for a wide range of applications. Despite being discovered over 80 years ago, its properties within the world of fascia have only recently received attention. Our fascial system penetrates and envelopes all organs, muscles, bones and nerve fibers, providing the body with a functional structure and an environment that enables all bodily systems to operate in an integrated manner. Recognized interactions between cells and their HA-rich extracellular microenvironment support the importance of studying the relationship between HA and the body’s fascial system. From fasciacytes to chronic pain, this review aims to highlight the connections between HA and fascial health.

Abstract 279: The Impact of Heart Failure on Depression and Quality of Life is Greater in Men than Women

2012 ◽  
Vol 5 (suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rory Hachamovitch ◽  
Brian Griffin ◽  
Alan Klein ◽  
Benjamin Nutter ◽  
Irene Katzan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Quality Of Life ◽  
Heart Failure ◽  
Demographic Data ◽  
Cardiovascular Assessment ◽  
Related Quality ◽  
Health Related ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Background. Patients (pts) diagnosed with congestive heart failure (HF) have been reported to have more frequent depression and worsened health related quality of life (HRQOL). Although depression is more common in women than men in this condition, the impact of HF on depression and HRQOL in men versus women is unclear. We sought to examine the relationship between pt sex, HF diagnosis, and pt-perceived depression and HRQOL. Methods. Depression (PHQ-9) and HRQOL (EQ5D) data were collected using tablet computers from pts presenting for routine outpatient cardiovascular assessment at our institution between November, 2010 and December, 2011. Demographic, clinical, and historical data was collected as per routine. We examined the association of pt sex and clinical diagnosis of HF with instrument results after adjusting for potential confounding information using mutliple linear regression. Results. Of 3046 pts (age 61±15), 39% were female and 8.7% were diagnosed with HF. Overall, PHQ-9 was greater, and minor or major depression (PHQ-9≥10) was more frequent, in women than men (4.6±4.6 vs. 3.3±4.4; 14.0% vs. 8.9%, both p<0.05) and in HF pts than pts without HF (5.9±5.6 vs. 3.6±4.3, 22.0% versus 9.6%; both p<0.05). Similarly, HRQOL was worse in women than men (EQ-5D 0.80±0.18 vs. 0.87±0.16; p<0.01) and in HF pts than no HF (EQ-5D 0.76±0.18 vs. 0.85±0.17; p<0.01). However, the difference in PHQ-9 between pts with versus without HF was greater in men (6.23±6.06 vs. 3.02±4.06, p<0.01) than women (5.43±4.85 vs. 4.55±4.58, p=0.09). After adjusting for cardiovascular diagnoses, comorbidities, clinical and demographic data, multivariable modeling of PHQ-9 revealed a significant interaction between pt sex and HF diagnosis (p=0.001; see Figure) such that women had greater PHQ-9 scores compared to men without HF, but in the setting of HF, mens' PHQ-9 scores were greater. Modeling of EQ-5D also revealed that after risk-adjustment an interaction between HF diagnosis and sex was present with a similar pattern of findings. Conclusion. Although depression is more frequent and severe in women compared to men, and in pts with versus without HF, HF appears to impact depression severity more in men compared to women.

Render unto Caesar Just a Little Bit Longer: The Relationship between Constitutional Reforms and Executive Survival

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-22
Author(s):  
Tofigh Maboudi ◽  
Ghazal P. Nadi ◽  
Todd A. Eisenstadt
Keyword(s):  
Term Limits ◽  
Institutional Constraints ◽  
Third Wave ◽  
Political Leaders ◽  
Constitutional Order ◽  
The Third ◽  
Constitutional Reforms ◽  
The Impact ◽  
First Time ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract Since the third wave of democracy, term limits have become a popular fixture of most constitutions intended to constrain the executive. Yet, recent constitutional reforms around the world show that presidents seeking re-election sometimes overturn the entire constitutional order to extend their power. What is the impact of these constitutional manipulations on the longevity of the executive in office? Using survival analysis of all political leaders and national constitutions from 1875 to 2015, this article demonstrates, for the first time, that when ‘authoritarian-aspiring’ presidents remove constitutional term limits, they increase their stay in office by more than 40%. Our findings contrast with a widely held position in the comparative authoritarian literature suggesting that dictators survive longer under institutional constraints. On the contrary, we argue that by removing constitutional barriers, rulers consolidate more power at the expense of their most ambitious allies and can stay in power longer.

scholarly journals Family Climate Patterns and Its Relationship with Self-Concept among Students at the University of Islamic Sciences in light of the Variables of Gender and Age

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 145
Author(s):  
Fatima Mohammad Rashed Al Talahin ◽  
Hana Khaled Al –Raqqad ◽  
Eman Saeed Al- Bourini ◽  
Bilal Adel Al-Kateeb
Keyword(s):  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Self Concept ◽  
Family Climate ◽  
Gender And Age ◽  
Climate Patterns ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The University ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

The aim of this study is to clarify the relationship between self-concept and patterns of family climate among students at the University of Islamic Sciences, and also aimed to investigate the effect of gender and age on this relationship.The sample of the study consisted of a group of students were selected randomly, totaling (139) students; (58) male and (81) female students.Two questionnaires were distributed on 139 students. The first questionnaire was on the impact of patterns of family climate on self-concept and the second one about self-concept. Then the researcher analyzed the results of each item in the questionnaire using appropriated statistical methods, calculated the correlation between self-concept and patterns of family climate using the Pearson correlation coefficient, and G-test to find the difference between correlation coefficients.The results showed a positive statistical significance relationship between family climate patterns on one hand and between self-concept in all its dimensions on the other hand.

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