scholarly journals ANALISIS KAUSALITAS EKSPOR NON MIGAS DENGAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI MENGGUNAKAN METODE FINAL PREDICTION ERROR

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 147
Author(s):  
Maulidyah Indira Hasmarini ◽  
Dwi Murtiningsih
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Prediction Error ◽  
Error Prediction ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Final Prediction Error ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
Final Error ◽  
Positive Effect ◽  
Growth Hypothesis

This research titled "Causality analysis non petrol export with economic growth using final error prediction methods". Goal which needs to find the answer in this research is to know that non petrol export variable affecting to economic growth variable and economic growth variable affecting non petrol export variable. And also to know final prediction error with existence of long term equilibrium between non petrol export with economic growth. Hypothesis proposed is non petrol export having positive effect to economic growth and economic growth have positive effect to non petrol export. Final error prediction with existence of relation between long term equilibrium and non petrol export and economic growth have positive effect, and final error prediction with existence of relation between long term equilibrium with economic growth and non petrol export have positive effect.Based on analysis there's only one direction causality relation between economic growth and non petrol export. From facts above can be concluded that economic growth will bring creation process and expanding strong domestic market because export is not a starting point or initial destination of economic growth but export only a economic growth process

scholarly journals ANALISIS PENGARUH INFLASI TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI INDONESIA DENGAN METODE FINAL PREDICTION ERROR

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 42
Author(s):  
Dwi Hartini ◽  
Yuni Prihadi Utomo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Prediction Error ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Negative Influence ◽  
The Body ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship ◽  
Final Prediction Error

The purpose of the research is to know whether inflation influences economic growth or economic growth influence inflation and to know the final prediction error of long - term equilibrium relationship between inflation and economic growth.The hypothesis presented in this research is that inflation has negative influence on economic growth and economic growth has negative influence on inflation. It is assumed that the final prediction error of long - term equilibrium relationship between inflation and economic growth has negative influence, and the final prediction error of equilibrium relationship between economic growth and inflation has negative influence.The method used in this research is causality analysis of Final Prediction Error (FPE) by using time series data of 1973 through 2002 taken from the Body of Statistic Center (BPS).It is conducted stationerity and causality test of FPE in this research. This research shows that there is one direction causality in which economic growth influences inflation.

PENGARUH INFRASTRUKTUR SECARA SPASIAL TERHADAP KONVERGENSI PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI INDONESIA

INFO ARTHA ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 1 ◽  
pp. 17-28
Author(s):  
Anisa Fahmi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Regional Economics ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Road Infrastructure ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Catch Up ◽  
The Developed Countries ◽  
Positive Effect ◽  
Neoclassical Growth Theory

Motivated by inter-regional disparities condition that occurs persistently, this study examines the Indonesian economy in the long run in order to know whether it tends to converge or diverge. This convergence is based on the Solow Neoclassical growth theory assuming the existence of diminishing returns to capital so that when the developed countries reach steady state conditions, developing countries will continuously grow up to 'catch-up' with developed countries. Based on regional economics perspective, each region can not be treated as a stand-alone unit,therefore, this study also focuses on the influence of spatial dependency and infrastructure. Economical and political situations of a region will influence policy in that region which will also have an impact to the neighboring regions. The estimation results of spatial cross-regressive model using fixed effect method consistently confirmed that the Indonesian economy in the long term will likely converge with a speed of 8.08 percent per year. Other findings are road infrastructure has a positive effect on economic growth and investment and road infrastructure are spatially showed a positive effect on economic growth. In other words, the investment and infrastructure of a region does not only affect the economic growth of that region but also to the economy of the contiguous regions. 

scholarly journals Government Stimulus Policy Effects to Foster Indonesia's Economic Growth: Evidence from Seventeen Years' Experience

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 63-76
Author(s):  
Agus Sriyanto ◽  
Sri Murwani ◽  
Eleonora Sofilda
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Government Debt ◽  
Influential Factor ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Policy Effects ◽  
Stimulus Effects ◽  
Positive Effect

We study the budget stimulus effects and government spending to help foster the recovery of Indonesia's current economic growth that was hit by the monetary crisis 1997 and 2008. Using government spending allocation policies through capital expenditures, infrastructure expenditures, financing through government debt, private debts, and increased productivity through export and import activities. This research provides to proves the extent to which macroeconomic variables could promote Indonesia's economic growth due to the crisis—using quantitative analysis of time series in the analysis of cointegration autoregressive distribution lag and bounds testing cointegration starting from 2001 Q4 to 2018q4 data. We can prove that in the short term, the most influential factor in economic growth is the first lag of the GDP growth itself; The first lag of exports, and the first lag of government spending and imports. However, some factors still negatively affect corruption control, government effectiveness, and government debt. While in the long term, government expenditure and imports still have a positive effect, but corruption control is still hurt GDP.JEL Classification: G18, O47How to Cite:Sriyanto, A., Murwani, S., & Sofilda, E. (2021). Government Stimulus Policy Effects to Foster Indonesia's Economic Growth: Evidence from Seventeen Years' Experience. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 10(1), 63-76. https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v10i1.15480.

scholarly journals Does the Export-Led Growth Hypothesis Hold for Services Exports in Emerging Economies?

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (27) ◽  
pp. 63-75
Author(s):  
Okpeku Lilian ONOSE ◽  
◽  
Osman Nuri ARAS ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Emerging Countries ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Positive Effect ◽  
Growth Hypothesis

The export-led growth hypothesis states a positive relationship between the growth of exports and long-run economic growth. This study examines the validity of the export-led growth hypothesis of services exports in 5 emerging economies, including Brazil, India, Nigeria, China, and South Africa (BINCS), for the period of 1980-2019. The study employs the panel mean group autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) procedure to identify a causal relationship between services exports and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. The findings show that the export-led growth hypothesis in services only has a positive effect on economic growth in the short run while other variables, including foreign direct investment (FDI), gross capital formation, and labour, increase economic growth in the long run. Hence, the emerging countries should focus more on internal investment to boost growth in the long and short run.

scholarly journals The relationship between renewable energy and sustainable development in Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 922 (1) ◽  
pp. 012034
Author(s):  
G Syamni ◽  
Wardhiah ◽  
Zulkifli ◽  
M J A Siregar ◽  
Y A Sitepu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Renewable Energy Sources ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Positive Effect

Abstract This paper is conducted to examine the relationship between the use of renewable energy and FDI in Indonesia. The data used in this study is secondary data that has been published by the World Bank and accessed in www.Data.worldbank.org. periode 2004-2019. The data analysis method used is the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method. The results of the study found that the use of renewable energy in the short and long term has a positive effect on Indonesia’s economic growth. Meanwhile, the same thing is also shown from the FDI variable in the short term and long term which has a significant positive effect on economic growth and has a positive effect on economic growth. Finally, with this finding, it is concluded that both the short and long term the Indonesian government needs to make a breakthrough to explore renewable energy sources for economic growth.

scholarly journals Analisis Kausalitas Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, Indeks Pembangunan Manusia Dan Belanja Modal Di Provinsi.Jambi

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 565
Author(s):  
Yolanda Sari ◽  
Etik Winarni ◽  
Muhammad Amali
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Development ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Capital Expenditure ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Unit Roots ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Constant Prices

This research aims toaanalyze the causal relationshipbbetween several variables including economiccgrowth using the value of PDRB at constant prices, the variable humanndevelopment index (HDI) and capitaleexpenditures in Jambi Province during 2010-2020 period. The data used in this research is secondary data with a database obtained from BPS Jambi Province and Regional Financial Statistics Jambi Province. The method used in this research is the Granger causality analysis method, which was previously tested using unit roots and cointegration methods to see the long-termrrelationship betweenrresearch variables. The results showed that there was a long-term relationship between the research variables. Economic growth has a one-way causal relationship with HDI. Economic growth increases the supply of resources needed for human development which in turn will encourage better human development. The capital expenditure variable has a one-way causal relationship with the economic growth variables. The allocation of capital for the implementation of various community economic activities and become an economic stimulus in Jambi Province.

scholarly journals PENGARUH VARIABEL MAKRO EKONOMI TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI INDONESIA TAHUN 2015-2019

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 88-99
Author(s):  
Feby Kinanda
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Positive Effect

This study aims to analyze the effect of macroeconomic variables including the open unemployment rate, trade balance, inflation rate and the rupiah exchange rate against the dollar on Indonesian economic growth by using the ECM error correction model approach to see the long-term and short-term relationships that influence macro variables on economic growth. , in the long term the open unemployment rate variable, the trade balance, the inflation rate have a negative effect while the exchange rate has a positive effect, while in the short term the open unemployment rate, the inflation rate and the exchange rate have a negative effect while the trade balance has a positive effect.   Keywords: Economic Growth, Open Unemployment Rate, Trade Balance, Inflation, Exchange Rate

scholarly journals ANALISIS PENGARUH GONCANGAN FAKTOR EKSTERNAL TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI

2017 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 25
Author(s):  
Monica Wulandari ◽  
Hasdi Aimon ◽  
Mike Triani
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
External Factors ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Significant Positive Effect ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Positive Effect

The purpose of this research is to see how far the influence of external factors toward the economic growth in Indonesia and also to see any external factors that can decreasing economic growth in short and long term. The method is used in this research is Ordinary Least Square with use Error Correction Model (ECM) test and Cointegration. Based on analysis data was obtained three conclusions were; The first is based on the results of multiple regression, foreign investment and world oil prices and a significant positive effect on economic growth in Indonesia, while the exchange rate and foreign debt and no significant positive effect on economic growth in Indonesia at the 5% significance level. The second is in the short term through the Error Correction Model (ECM) test, the world oil price and foreign direct investment to boost economic growth while exchange rate USD / $ (NTR) and External Debt (ED) can shocks the economic growth in Indonesia. The third is in the long term through cointegration test, the variables included in the model and no significant negative effect on economic growth

scholarly journals Analisis pengaruh konsumsi, investasi dan tenaga kerja terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi Provinsi Jambi

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 108-120
Author(s):  
Sri Sarmita Dewi ◽  
Erfit Erfit ◽  
Siti Aminah
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Theory ◽  
Confidence Level ◽  
Significant Relationship ◽  
Household Consumption ◽  
Free Variable ◽  
Domestic Consumption ◽  
Significance Level ◽  
Positive Effect ◽  
Growth Hypothesis

This research aims to find out how influence from free variable (household consumption, investment and labor) to the dependent variable (economic growth). Hypothesis testing the influence of household consumption, investment,and labor there is a significant relationship to economic growth in the province of jambi, this is adjusted to economic theory that economic growth will be explained by investment then this can be proven by using the F-test (collectively) and t-test (partially) with a 95% confidence level or significance level (α = 0.05). The result from data processing that: 1) The variable of domestic consumption had positive effect and significant to economic growth; 2) The variable of investment has positive effect and significant to economic growth; 3) The variable of labor had positifve effect and significant to economic growth Keywords: Economic Growth, Household Consumption, Investment, Labor.

scholarly journals Urbanization and Economic Growth in China—An Empirical Research Based on VAR Model

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 210 ◽  
Author(s):  
Li Yang Zi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Resident Population ◽  
Urbanization Rate ◽  
Population Urbanization ◽  
Positive Effect ◽  
Land Urbanization

This paper takes the relation between urbanization and economic growth in China as the object of study. By using the time series data ranging from 1982 to 2014 and building VAR model, it analyzes, respectively, the dynamic relations between economic growth and the urbanization rate of resident population, the urbanization rate of land and the quality of urbanization. The paper comes up with the following conclusions: there exists a unidirectional causality between resident population urbanization and China’s economic growth, the former promoting the long-term growth of the latter; unidirectional causality also exists between land urbanization rate and China’s economic growth. However, different from resident population urbanization rate, it is the economic growth of China that promotes the increase of land urbanization rate and the increase of land urbanization rate cannot promote China’s economic growth; the relation between the quality of urbanization and China’s economic growth is a two-way causality. The improvement of urbanization quality has a cumulative positive effect on the economic growth of China, while economic growth has a negative effect on the improvement of urbanization quality in the short term and positive effect on economic growth in the long term.

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