The Role of Chance in Fencing Tournaments: an Agent-Based Approach

It is a widespread belief that success is mainly due to innate qualities, rather than to external forces.This is particularly true in sport competitions, where individual talent is usually considered the main, if not the only, ingredient in order to reach success. In this study, with the help of both real data and agent-based simulations, we explore the limits of this belief by quantifying the relative weight of talent and chance in fencing, a combat sport involving a weapon. Fencing competitions are structured as direct elimination tournaments, where randomness is explicitly present in some rules. Our dataset covers the last decade of international events and consists of both single competition results and annual rankings for male and female fencers under 20 years old (Junior category). Our model is calibrated on the dataset and parametrized by just one free variable 'a' describing the importance of talent - and, consequently, of chance - in competitions (a = 1 indicates the ideal scenario where only talent matters, a = 0 the complete random one). Our agent-based approach is able to reproduce the main stylized facts observed in real data, at the level of both single fencing tournaments and entire careers of a given community of fencers. We find that simulations approximate very well the real data for both Junior Men and Women when talent weights slightly less than chance, i.e. when 'a' is around 0.45. We conclude that the role of chance in fencing is unusually high and it probably represents an extreme case for individual sports. Our results shed light on the importance of external factors in both athletes' results in single tournaments and their entire career, making even more unfair the ``winner-takes-all'' disparities in remuneration which often occur among the winner and the other classified.

Electron localization induced by intrinsic anion disorder in a transition metal oxynitride

Anderson localization derived from randomness plays a crucial role in various kinds of phase transitions. Although treated as a free variable parameter in theory, randomness in electronic materials is hard to control experimentally owing to the coexisting Coulomb interaction. Here we demonstrate that the intrinsic anion disorder in a mixed-anion system of SrNbO2N induces a significant random potential that overwhelms the Coulomb potential while maintaining the lattice structure. A metal-to-insulator transition is triggered by a chemical modulation of the electron density where the critical electron density is more than three orders of magnitude greater than that predicted by the well-known Mott criterion. The localized electrons show characteristic electrical properties such as temperature-dependent multiple crossovers of conduction mechanisms and a positive magnetoresistance above 50% at low temperature. The large magnetoresistance is attributed to wave-function shrinkage of the localized states and clearly visualizes the anisotropy in the band structure, which indicates a compatibility of the periodicity and randomness.

Pendidikan Formal Anak Pada Keluarga Petani Ikan Di Desa Pudak Kecamatan Kumpeh Ulu Kabupaten Muaro Jambi Provinsi Jambi

Abstrack. The study aims to describe the distribution of children's formal education levels to fish farming families, and the perception of fish farming families to the formal education of children, as well as analyze the level of formal education of children of fish farmers in Pudak Village, Kumpeh Ulu District, Muaro Jambi Province. Data analysis uses descriptive methods both qualitatively and quantitatively and multiple linear regression analysis. The results showed that the distribution of the level of formal education of fish farmers' children in Pudak Village of Kumpeh Ulu Subdistrict was uneven, the percentage in the lower education category (elementary and junior high) amounted to 48.40%, the moderate education category (SLTA) by 38.71% and the higher education category (D3 and S1) by 12.89%. Farmers perceive that formal education is important for children, through education can expand thinking and knowledge as a provision for children's lives in the future so that they have a decent job and their lives are better than the conditions of their parents. Of the six factors (age of the head of the family, the education of the head of the family, the number of dependents of the head of the family, the income of the head of the family, the distance of the educational facilities, the sex of the child) included in the model, there are two factors that affect the level of formal education of the child in the fish farming family, namely family income and distance of residence with educational facilities. The coefficient of determination of 85.5% which means that both factors as free variables are able to explain the child's formal education level as a non-free variable and 14.5% cannot be explained by the model but is explained by other factors outside the model.Keywords: Formal Education, Children, Fish Farmers

Unrestricted permutation forces extrapolation: variable importance requires at least one more model, or there is no free variable importance

This paper reviews and advocates against the use of permute-and-predict (PaP) methods for interpreting black box functions. Methods such as the variable importance measures proposed for random forests, partial dependence plots, and individual conditional expectation plots remain popular because they are both model-agnostic and depend only on the pre-trained model output, making them computationally efficient and widely available in software. However, numerous studies have found that these tools can produce diagnostics that are highly misleading, particularly when there is strong dependence among features. The purpose of our work here is to (i) review this growing body of literature, (ii) provide further demonstrations of these drawbacks along with a detailed explanation as to why they occur, and (iii) advocate for alternative measures that involve additional modeling. In particular, we describe how breaking dependencies between features in hold-out data places undue emphasis on sparse regions of the feature space by forcing the original model to extrapolate to regions where there is little to no data. We explore these effects across various model setups and find support for previous claims in the literature that PaP metrics can vastly over-emphasize correlated features in both variable importance measures and partial dependence plots. As an alternative, we discuss and recommend more direct approaches that involve measuring the change in model performance after muting the effects of the features under investigation.

The Concept of Competition in Optimal Resource Allocation and Methods for Its Assessment

Aim. The presented study aims to define the concept of competition in optimal resource allocation and to determine indicators of competition in practical tasks directly in the mathematical formulation of the problem.Tasks. The authors determine mathematical indicators that characterize the level of competition in resource allocation optimization tasks and show examples of the adequacy and sensitivity of the selected competition indicators in various economic situations.Methods. The selected competition indicators for these tasks are based on the concept of “rigorous selection” of competitors applying for resources. The indicators are calculated in full accordance with the known optimization methods and optimality conditions for problems of this class, making it possible to interpret the results of optimization as a measure of competition for resources.Results. Two types of competition indicators for linear and non-linear cases of optimal resource allocation problems are defined and formalized. Examples of the dependence of efficiency on different compositions of the competitive environment are shown. Dependencies of the “rigorous selection” of competitors in the context of resource depletion are described.Conclusions. The competition indicators considered in the study can be included in the standard analysis for solving the problems of optimal resource allocation, which involves finding an extremum, searching for an optimal plan, analyzing stability, limits, the effect of restrictions on the target function, dual estimates, a measure of resource scarcity, etc. Adding the competition indicator to this analysis provides another factor for analysis, which can be significant under otherwise equal conditions. The competition indicator can be used both in a multi-step procedure for finding the extremum of a function (for example, as an additional criterion for choosing a free variable) and in the analysis of the results of problem-solving.

Penggunaan Bioetanol Sebagai Alternatif Campuran Bahan Bakar Pada Mesin Otto

Abstrak Ketersediaan bahan bakar fosil untuk penggerak kendaaran bermotor semakin menipis, akibat bertambah kendaraan yang beroperasi di jalan raya, sehingga perlu pemikiran energy terbarukan lai sebagai alternatif penggantinya, Alternatif tumbuhan yaitu singkong sebagai sumber energi sebagai penggantinya perlu pemikiran lanjut. Bioethanol dari singkong ini dilakukan dengan proses fermentasu selama 5 hari dengan dicampu ragi, Tujuan menentukan daya dan torsi terbesar serta sfc terkecil saat menggunakan campuran bioetanol E10, E15 dan E20 dengan pertalite. Metode pengujian daya dan torsi sesuai standar ISO 1585 untuk mendapatkann data, selanjutnya diolah menggunakan statistik. Variabel tetapnya bioetanol (E10, E15 dan E20). Variabel berubahnya daya, torsi, konsumsi bahan bakar spesifik (sfc) dan putaran mesin. Hasil daya terbesar saat menggunakan E10 sebesar 6,67hP dan torsinya 6,58hP sedang untuk E15 dayanya sebesar 6,10hP torsinya 6,22Nm serta untuk E-20 dayanya 6,18hP torisnya 6,36Nm. Sfc terkecil untuk E10 sebesar 0,0120kg/hP,jam dan untuk E15 sebesar 0,0232kg/hP.jam serta untuk E20 sebesar 0,202kg/hp.jam. Kata kunci: bioetanol, daya, konsumsi bahan bakar Abstract The availability of traditional fuels for driving motorized vehicles is running low, due to the increasing number of vehicles operating on the highway, so it is necessary to think about other renewable energy as an alternative replacement. Namely cassava plants as an alternative energy sources as a replacement needs to be thought further. This bioethanol from cassava is obtained through a fermentation process for 5 days mixed with yeast. The aim is to determine the biggest power and torque as well as the smallest SFC when pertalite is mixed with bioethanol E10, E15 and E20. The power and torque testing method is according to ISO 1585 standard to obtain data, then it is processed statistically. The fixed variable is bioethanol (E10, E15 and E20). Free variable is changes in power, torque, specific fuel consumption (SFC) and engine speed. The biggest power is 6.67hP reached when using the E10 while the torque is 6.58hP, when using the E15 the power is 6.10hP and the torque is 6.22Nm then for the E-20 the power is 6.18hP the torque is 6.36Nm. The smallest SFC is 0.0120kg / Hp.hour for E10 and 0.0232kg / hP.hours for E15 then 0.202kg / hp.h for E20. Keywords : bioethanol, power, fuel consumption

Functions-as-constructors higher-order unification: extended pattern unification

Unification is a central operation in constructing a range of computational logic systems based on first-order and higher-order logics. First-order unification has several properties that guide its incorporation in such systems. In particular, first-order unification is decidable, unary, and can be performed on untyped term structures. None of these three properties hold for full higher-order unification: unification is undecidable, unifiers can be incomparable, and term-level typing can dominate the search for unifiers. The so-called pattern subset of higher-order unification was designed to be a small extension to first-order unification that respects the laws governing λ-binding (i.e., the equalities for α, β, and η-conversion) but which also satisfied those three properties. While the pattern fragment of higher-order unification has been used in numerous implemented systems and in various theoretical settings, it is too weak for many applications. This paper defines an extension of pattern unification that should make it more generally applicable, especially in proof assistants that allow for higher-order functions. This extension’s main idea is that the arguments to a higher-order, free variable can be more than just distinct bound variables. In particular, such arguments can be terms constructed from (sufficient numbers of) such bound variables using term constructors and where no argument is a subterm of any other argument. We show that this extension to pattern unification satisfies the three properties mentioned above.

Development of E-Book Learning Media Based on Problem Solving in the Material of the Human Digestive System

: This research aims to develop e-book learning media using the professional Flip pdf application based on problem solving in human digestive system materials and to test the feasibility of e-book media developed through validation of Experts and to find out the effectiveness of teacher and student responses. Is a type of research development / Research and development that uses 4D models with stages (define, design, develop and desiminate) in this study only up to the stage of develope.descriptive qualitative research design. E-book as a free variable and human digestive system as a bound variable. The population in the study was 18 students of class XI AL-khairiyah High School 4 Cilegon, school year 2021/2022. Data retrieval and collection techniques are carried out by spreading questionnaires and interviews, data analysis techniques using interpretase scales and likert scales to test the feasibility of e-books that have been created. The results of the assessment of media experts, obtained a score of 82% and and expert test material obtained a value of 79% which falls into the category of feasible while the response test of the student response test obtained a score of 88% and the teacher board 81% with a very interesting category, based on the results of the study can be concluded that: e-book human suppression system based on problem solving is suitable for student use in biological learning system materials. Keywords:biological learning, e-book, human digestive system, problem solving

FAILURE PERFORMANCE OF BEND-FREE VARIABLE STIFFNESS COMPOSITE PRESSURE VESSELS

Pressure vessels are designed to store liquids and gases and have various applications spanning from chemical plants to automotive and aerospace industries. Currently, lightweight composite pressure vessels are desirable, especially in transportation industry applications because of their subsequent benefits in fuel consumption, cost and environmental issues. Using composite materials for pressure vessels along with advanced manufacturing technologies such as automated fiber placement provides excellent scope to tailor stiffness through the structural surface using fiber steering to achieve desirable structural performance. Recently, variable angle tow (VAT) technology has been used to suppress bending in super ellipsoids of revolution composite pressure vessels, resulting in minimizing the inefficient bending stresses and deformations and increasing their load-carrying capacity. It is worth noting that such geometries can provide excellent packing efficiency. These advantages make the bend-free super ellipsoids of revolution composite pressure vessels potential candidates for the next generation of pressure vessels. Therefore, their failure performance as the most important design factor should be studied carefully due to safety reasons. In this study, the maximum allowable internal pressure for VAT bend-free ellipsoidal pressure vessels, using the first-ply failure based on both Tsai-Wu and three-dimensional invariant-based failure criteria is determined. Subsequently, VAT bend-free pressure vessels’ failure performance is compared against that obtained for conventional constant stiffness composite vessels. Among structures considered, the VAT bend-free composite vessel has the best failure performance. Moreover, the predicted failure load using the three-dimensional invariant-based failure criterion for the VAT bend-free design is 34% lower than the failure load predicted by the Tsai- Wu. Finally, the effect of various material properties on the difference in predicted failure load using these criteria is assessed. Results provide physical insight useful for designers in materials selection.

Improving chemical learning outcomes with explicit instruction learning models with quizizz evaluation media

This study aims to determine the effect of explicit instruction learning models and the percentage of student learning outcomes improvement in chemistry. Explicit instruction learning model is the free variable while the dependent variable is learning outcomes. This research method is a quasi experiment with the research design nonequivalent control group design. The population of this study were students of Senior High School 42 Jakarta, the sample was selected by purposive sampling technique, consisting of two classes, namely class XI MIA 1 as the experimental class and XI MIA 2 as the control class. The results of the ttest show that the sig. (2-tailed) is smaller than the α value, namely sig 0.000 < sig 0.05, so learning using the explicit instruction model has a significant effect on improving chemistry learning outcomes on hydrocarbon compound material. In addition, the use of explicit instruction learning models can improve student learning outcomes by 19% when compared with the use of conventional learning models (TCL). Keywords: Explicit instruction, Quizizz, Chemistry learning, Learning outcomes