Extending the Ramsey Rule to an Uncertain Economic Growth

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Gollier
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Discount Rate ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
The Future ◽  
Precautionary Motive ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Ramsey Rule

This chapter considers the prospect of uncertainty in planning for the future. In fact, it is commonly accepted that individuals are ready to sacrifice more in the present for the future when this future becomes more uncertain. Keynes was the first to mention this idea by pointing out the precautionary motive for saving. What is desirable at the individual level is also desirable at the collective one. Thus the chapter argues that a society that wants to reinforce the incentive to invest for the future because of its uncertain nature should select a smaller discount rate to evaluate the set of all possible investment projects.

scholarly journals Facing the Future: A Blueprint for a Resilient and Equitable Society: Connecting the Functional Building Blocks

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-37
Author(s):  
F. Bocken ◽  
E. Brennan ◽  
N. Claessens ◽  
D. Claeys ◽  
S. Debeaussaert ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Political Representation ◽  
Full Range ◽  
Building Blocks ◽  
Bank Loans ◽  
Ageing Population ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
The Future ◽  
Range Of Functions ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Unemployed

Abstract Contemporary society is plagued by a number of issues and inconsistencies on both an environmental and a socio-economic level. Reliance on bank loans forces debtors to seek means to repay their debts, thus facilitating the current boundless economic growth in which long-term, environmental considerations typically come second. On the individual level, since virtually nothing is free, everyone has to ensure his or her own livelihood, mostly in the form of wage labour. For fear of poverty, the unemployed must adjust to the needs of the job market and risk not being able to fully explore their potential. Other socio-economic groups also face stigmatisation, and inequality is rampant as a result of the pervasive market-based pricing mechanisms. In view of these issues, it seems unjustified to accept these terms and conditions in the future, especially since the West has to cater to its ageing population and the ensuing pressure this will exert on welfare systems. Therefore, as a transdisciplinary team assisted by various experts and armed with insights from a wide <target target-type="page-num" id="p-2"/>variety of sources, we propose an alternative model of society based on the values of fairness, inclusion and transparency, with the goal of developing a representative systems map for a future, resilient and equitable society. The exact workings of this society are captured by several building blocks, which together endeavour to cover the full range of functions and responsibilities associated with society today, and jointly promote democratisation while guaranteeing equal political representation for all members of society.

FOUR DECADES OF POVERTY AND CONSUMPTION IN CHINA

2020 ◽  
Vol 65 (supp01) ◽  
pp. 117-138
Author(s):  
JINXIAN WANG ◽  
CHEN WANG ◽  
YAN ZHANG
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Income Distribution ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Poverty Index ◽  
Domestic Consumption ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Provincial Level ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Empirical Analyses

Since 2010, China’s miraculous growth has come to a halt and has shown steady deceleration. To re-accelerate economic growth, stimulating domestic consumption is a crucial way with fighting poverty as the key step. This paper attempts to explore the impact of poverty on resident consumption in China over the last four decades. Based on provincial data, we first simulate income distribution at the individual level and provide moderate poverty profiles at the provincial level. The empirical analyses are then conducted to gauge the poverty impacts using the estimated poverty index. Results show that (1) moderate poverty has decreased sharply in China, with the best achievement in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangdong; (2) moderate poverty exerts a significantly negative impact on resident consumption; and (3) when poverty increases, resident consumption on household equipment decreases the most, while resident consumption on food, transportation, and telecommunication decreases the least.

The Post-War Period: 1946–1972

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lyn Ragsdale ◽  
Jerrold G. Rusk
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
World War Ii ◽  
Vietnam War ◽  
Voting Rights Act ◽  
World War ◽  
Economic Growth Rate ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Post War ◽  
The 1960S ◽  
The Individual

Abstract: The chapter considers nonvoting after World War II, a unique electoral period in American history with the lowest nonvoting rates of any period from 1920–2012. The post-war period also boasts the highest economic growth rate of any of the four periods, coupled with the early days of television which transformed politics in the 1950s. In general, economic growth and the introduction of television move nonvoting rates downward. The chapter also considers in detail the struggles leading to the Voting Rights Act of 1965 and the law’s impact on nonvoting rates among African Americans. It also uncovers that in the 1960s the Vietnam War increased nonvoting. The chapter begins an analysis of nonvoting at the individual level. The less individuals know about the campaign context and the less they form comparisons between the candidates, the more likely they will say home on Election Day.

scholarly journals Predicting the Future: Art and Algorithms

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 893-911
Author(s):  
Akos Rona-Tas
Keyword(s):  
Social Life ◽  
Consumer Credit ◽  
Social Contexts ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
The Past ◽  
Predictive Algorithms ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Political Governance

Abstract Predictive algorithms are replacing the art of human judgement in rapidly growing areas of social life. By offering pattern recognition as forecast, predictive algorithms mechanically project the past onto the future, embracing a peculiar notion of time where the future is different in no radical way from the past and present, and a peculiar world where human agency is absent. Yet, prediction is about agency, we predict the future to change it. At the individual level, the psychological literature has concluded that in the realm of predictions, human judgement is inferior to algorithmic methods. At the sociological level, however, human judgement is often preferred over algorthms. We show how human and algorithmic predictions work in three social contexts—consumer credit, college admissions and criminal justice—and why people have good reasons to rely on human judgement. We argue that mechanical and overly successful local predictions can result in self-fulfilling prophecies and, eventually, global polarization and chaos. Finally, we look at algorithmic prediction as a form of societal and political governance and discuss how it is currently being constructed as a wide net of control by market processes in the USA and by government fiat in China.

scholarly journals A big data analysis of the relationship between future thinking and decision-making

2018 ◽  
Vol 115 (8) ◽  
pp. E1740-E1748 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Thorstad ◽  
Phillip Wolff
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Big Data ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Future Thinking ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Near Future ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Far Future

We use big data methods to investigate how decision-making might depend on future sightedness (that is, on how far into the future people’s thoughts about the future extend). In study 1, we establish a link between future thinking and decision-making at the population level in showing that US states with citizens having relatively far future sightedness, as reflected in their tweets, take fewer risks than citizens in states having relatively near future sightedness. In study 2, we analyze people’s tweets to confirm a connection between future sightedness and decision-making at the individual level in showing that people with long future sightedness are more likely to choose larger future rewards over smaller immediate rewards. In study 3, we show that risk taking decreases with increases in future sightedness as reflected in people’s tweets. The ability of future sightedness to predict decisions suggests that future sightedness is a relatively stable cognitive characteristic. This implication was supported in an analysis of tweets by over 38,000 people that showed that future sightedness has both state and trait characteristics (study 4). In study 5, we provide evidence for a potential mechanism by which future sightedness can affect decisions in showing that far future sightedness can make the future seem more connected to the present, as reflected in how people refer to the present, past, and future in their tweets over the course of several minutes. Our studies show how big data methods can be applied to naturalistic data to reveal underlying psychological properties and processes.

scholarly journals THE ROLE AND BEHAVIOR OF THE INDIVIDUAL IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOCIAL CAPITAL

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 39-44
Author(s):  
Natalia Rіabinina
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Social Capital ◽  
General Concept ◽  
Economic Behavior ◽  
Economic Changes ◽  
Economic Concept ◽  
The Future ◽  
Main Components ◽  
The Individual ◽  
And Behavior

At the intersection of the past and the future there is a point of present, which, due to external and internal socio-economic requirements, activates the subject himself, when uniting the sciences of economics and sociology, as well as psychology, philosophy and law, we see the development of a new scientific direction - social capital. Interdisciplinary and multi-vector methodological conception on development has the capabilities to use in all spheres of life, to develop a more productive and inclusive economy because it works directly with people and for people. The development of society and the formation of institutions of citizenship and economic growth are inherently connected with the new economic and social concept, which is an incentive for self-organization, and the establishment of interpersonal and intergroup relations, leading to a path of harmonization based on sincere help and trust. Formulation of the goals and objectives of the article (setting a task). A large amount of research on social capital, a wide and diverse direction of study directly inhibits the systemicity and orderliness of concepts and theoretical knowledge, so at the beginning of the study it is necessary to put problems, tasks, a place in the knowledge system and connection with other disciplines. The purpose of the study is to separate and determine the individuality of a person in the process of social capital, attitude and behavior of the individual and group at all levels of this concept, analysis, specifics and structural content of social capital. Methodology. During the research, to study and achieve the goal, the analysis of theoretical aspects and generalizations of scientific sources, dialectic cognition of the formation of social capital, revealed a kind of economic concept, methods of induction and deduction, abstraction of theoretical provisions and dialectic cognition were carried out. Results. The article raises the issue of the resource of socio-economic growth and improvement, on the basis of intergroup and interpersonal interactions and relationships at a high micro level, on the foundation of trust and cooperation between people, single work and development of state, economic, civic platforms. It is with humans that the mechanism of development, accumulation and effective use begins. The accumulation of individuality in the development of social capital of the economic system and the main components of social capital, such as trust and reliability, are studied. The analysis of economic behavior of the individual when making a rational decision in the world of economic changes is carried out. The practical component of the main provisions of the concept and levels of social capital, and its role in the general concept of the economic component can further develop and be used in the process of developing the analysis and development of the individual with individual behavior and personal decision-making. Value/originality. The theory of social capital itself is new and little-studied, so any vector of study and research gives a new impetus to interest and further development of the detection of theoretical aspects, generalization to definition and essence, outlining the main directions of development and formation for the future.

Responsible for Destiny

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 ◽  
pp. 198-226
Author(s):  
Katherine Ward ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Being And Time ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
The Future ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Way

Historizing is the way Dasein takes up possibilities and roles to project itself into the future. It is why we experience continuity throughout our lives, and it is the basis for historicality – our sense of a more general continuity of “history.” In Being and Time, Heidegger identifies both inauthentic and authentic modes of historizing that give rise, respectively, to inauthentic and authentic modes of histori­cality. He focuses on historizing at the individual level but gestures at a communal form of historizing. In this paper, I develop the concept of co-historizing in both its authentic and inauthentic modes. I argue that Heidegger’s unarticulated concept of inauthentic co-historizing is what necessitated the planned (but unfinished) second half of Being and Time – the “phenomenological destruction of the history of ontology.” I consider what it means to take responsibility for our destiny as a people and specifically as a community of philosophers.

The Meaning of the Future for the Oldest Old

2003 ◽  
Vol 56 (4) ◽  
pp. 345-364 ◽  
Author(s):  
Margareta Nilsson ◽  
Anneli Sarvimäki ◽  
Sirkka-Liisa Ekman
Keyword(s):  
Life Story ◽  
Oldest Old ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Life And Death ◽  
Philosophy Of Life ◽  
The Future ◽  
Wait And See ◽  
Life Story Interviews ◽  
The Individual

The aim of the study was to highlight the oldest old people's view of their future from a perspective of philosophy of life. Data was collected by means of life story interviews with 15 persons. The analysis was performed by utilizing a phenomenological hermeneutic method and the interpretation was guided by the conceptual framework of philosophy of life as designated by Jeffner (1988). The following themes emerged: future seen as everyday life; future-oriented values; and thoughts about life and death. The oldest old were found to view their future in ways that ranged from a tangible positive approach via a wait-and-see policy to a negative approach. Their perception of their future implied two different time perspectives, their immediate future and a more long-term perspective of the future. Furthermore, the future was experienced on three different levels, the individual level, the intergenerational level, and the metaphysical level.

scholarly journals Magnitude effect in intertemporal allocation tasks

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chen Sun ◽  
Jan Potters
Keyword(s):  
Discount Rate ◽  
Time Preference ◽  
Magnitude Effect ◽  
Aggregate Level ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Total Budget ◽  
Intertemporal Allocation ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Intertemporal Choices

AbstractIntertemporal choices are affected by both discount rate and utility curvature. We investigate how the two aspects of time preference are affected by the size of the total budget using an intertemporal allocation task. At the aggregate level as well as at the individual level, we find magnitude effects both on the discount rate and on intertemporal substitutability (i.e., utility curvature). Individuals are more patient when dealing with larger budgets and also regard larger budgets to be more fungible. The latter effect suggests that the degree of asset integration is increasing in the stake.

Globalism and ecophilosophy of the future

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nariman Ismailov
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Cultural Development ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Ecological Civilization ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Stage Of Development ◽  
The World ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Law ◽  
The Individual

From the point of view of the new science of globalism, the problems of the ecological, socio-economic state of the world and countries are considered through the prism of the interaction of the human psyche and society and the inhabited world. The criteria of ecological civilization of countries and peoples are justified. Optimizing the consumption of natural bio-and energy resources is becoming a fundamental environmental factor for sustainable development. The "Law of the maximum for humanity" as the law of the biosphere can be the arbitration court, the neutral force that will explain the historical need for mutual understanding, taking into account the interests of ecology and economy for the survival of man as a biovid on Earth; a new reality will begin to form — the phenomenon of co-residence of the world society with the biosphere. The world's population, its energy and bio-consumption, as well as all living matter on the planet, must correspond to the biological capacity of the Earth and not go beyond its boundaries. The task of the society is to implement a worldview breakthrough at the current stage of development, its own cultural mutation, which in the future will create the basis for adaptive technological and socio-cultural development. The task is to classify the entire Earth as a "Green Book" and to solve systemic environmental problems of a global nature. An integral part of sustainable development should be the principle of "vital consumption" at both the personal and social level, instead of the dominant principle of"expanded production and consumption". The indicator of the" culture of consumption "of natural resources, both at the individual level and at the level of society, should be included as an integral part of the integral indicator in the "True Indicator of Progress" and the "Human Development Index". The book is interdisciplinary in nature; it is a kind of scientific and philosophical poetic essay intended for teachers and students of universities in the field of sociology, ecology, biology and related fields, as well as for everyone who cares about the future of society.

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