scholarly journals Forest stand biomass of Picea spp.: an additive model that may be related to climate and civilisational changes

2019 ◽  
Vol 45 (45) ◽  
pp. 133-147 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vladimir А. Usoltsev ◽  
Agnieszka Piernik ◽  
Anna A. Osmirko ◽  
Ivan S. Tsepordey ◽  
Viktor P. Chasovskikh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forest Cover ◽  
General Pattern ◽  
Additive Model ◽  
Multivariate Regression Analysis ◽  
Component Composition ◽  
Mean Annual Precipitation ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Additive Component ◽  
Biomass Components

AbstractSince ancient times, climate change has largely determined the fate of human civilisation, which was related mainly to changes in the structure and habitats of forest cover. In the context of current climate change, one must know the capabilities of forests to stabilise the climate by increasing biomass and carbon-depositing abilities. For this purpose, the authors compiled a database of harvest biomass (t/ha) in 900 spruce (Picea spp.) sample plots in the Eurasian area and used the methodology of multivariate regression analysis. The first attempt at modelling changes in the biomass additive component composition has been completed, according to the Trans-Eurasian hydrothermal gradients. It is found that the biomass of all components increases with the increase in the mean January temperature, regardless of mean annual precipitation. In warm zonal belts with increasing precipitation, the biomass of most of the components increases. In the process of transitioning from a warm zone to a cold one, the dependence of all biomass components upon precipitation is levelled, and at a mean January temperature of ˗30°C it becomes a weak negative trend. With an increase in temperature of 1°C in different ecoregions characterised by different values of temperature and precipitation, there is a general pattern of decrease in all biomass components. With an increase in precipitation of 100 mm in different ecoregions characterised by different values of temperature and precipitation, most of the components of biomass increase in warm zonal belts, and decrease in cold ones. The development of such models for the main forest-forming species of Eurasia will make it possible to predict changes in the productivity of the forest cover of Eurasia due to climate change.

scholarly journals Additive model of aboveground biomass of larch single-trees related to age, Dbh and height, sensitive to temperature and precipitation in Eurasia

2020 ◽  
Vol 24 (10) ◽  
pp. 1759-1766
Author(s):  
Vladimir А. Usoltsev ◽  
Seyed Omid Reza Shobairi ◽  
Anna. A. Osmirko ◽  
Ivan. S. Tsepordey ◽  
Viktor. P. Chasovskikh
Keyword(s):  
Regression Models ◽  
Forest Cover ◽  
Additive Model ◽  
Component Composition ◽  
Mean Annual Precipitation ◽  
Mean Annual Temperature ◽  
Tree Biomass ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Additive Component ◽  
The Mean

The first attempt of modeling changes in the aboveground additive component composition of larch (genus Larix spp.) tree biomass, according to the Trans-Eurasian hydrothermal gradients of Eurasia on the database compiled for the structure of harvest biomass in a number of 510 sample trees is fulfilled. The adequacy of the obtained regularities is determined by the level of variability 87-99 % explained by the proposed regression models. For the central territory of European Russia, characterized by the mean annual temperature of January -10 °C and the mean annual precipitation of 400 mm, the increase in temperature by 1°C at the constant level of precipitation causes on Larix spp. trees of the equal age and sizes, the decrease in the aboveground, stem, needle and branches by 0.4, 0.3, 1.4 и 1.3 %, respectively. For the same region, in equal-sized trees, the increase in precipitation by 100 mm at a constant annual temperature in January causes the decrease of the aboveground and stem biomass by 1.2 and 1.7%, respectively, and the increase of needle and branches biomass by 4.0 and 6.0%, respectively. The development of such models for the main forest-forming species of Eurasia will make it possible to predict changes in the productivity of the forest cover of Eurasia in connection with climate change. Keywords: larch trees, genus Larix spp., tree biomass, allometric models

scholarly journals Fir (Abies spp.) stand biomass additive model for Eurasia sensitive to winter temperature and annual precipitation

2019 ◽  
Vol 65 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 166-179 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vladimir A. Usoltsev ◽  
Katarína Merganičová ◽  
Bohdan Konôpka ◽  
Anna A. Osmirko ◽  
Ivan S. Tsepordey ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Biomass Allocation ◽  
Aboveground Biomass ◽  
Additive Model ◽  
Tree Biomass ◽  
Common Pattern ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Shoot Ratio ◽  
Biomass Components ◽  
Increasing Temperature

Abstract Climate change, especially modified courses of temperature and precipitation, has a significant impact on forest functioning and productivity. Moreover, some alterations in tree biomass allocation (e.g. root to shoot ratio, foliage to wood parts) might be expected in these changing ecological conditions. Therefore, we attempted to model fir stand biomass (t ha−1) along the trans-Eurasian hydrothermal gradients using the data from 272 forest stands. The model outputs suggested that all biomass components, except for the crown mass, change in a common pattern, but in different ratios. Specifically, in the range of mean January temperature and precipitation of −30°C to +10°C and 300 to 900 mm, fir stand biomass increases with both increasing temperature and precipitation. Under an assumed increase of January temperature by 1°C, biomass of roots and of all components of the aboveground biomass of fir stands increased (under the assumption that the precipitation level did not change). Similarly, an assumed increase in precipitation by 100 mm resulted in the increased biomass of roots and of all aboveground components. We conclude that fir seems to be a perspective taxon from the point of its productive properties in the ongoing process of climate change.

scholarly journals Modeling of the additive biomass structure of Pinus L. stands in climatic gradients of Eurasia

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
В.А. Усольцев ◽  
И.С. Цепордей ◽  
А.А. Осмирко ◽  
В.Ф. Ковязин ◽  
В.П. Часовских ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forest Cover ◽  
Forest Biomass ◽  
Component Composition ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Mean Annual Precipitation ◽  
Simultaneous Increase ◽  
Biomass Equation ◽  
Additive Structure ◽  
Biomass Structure

Биомасса лесов является ключевой экосистемной составляющей и важным компонентом глобального углеродного цикла. Разработка моделей биомассы, чувствительных к изменению климата, ведется сегодня на уровнях как древостоев, так и модельных деревьев. Однако все текущие исследования подобного рода выполняются в пределах ограниченных экорегионов. Сформированная авторами база данных о биомассе насаждений подрода Pinus L., произрастающего в Евразии, в количестве 2460 пробных площадей использована в качестве основы для выявления трансконтинентальных закономерностей. Предпринята первая попытка разработать гармонизированную по структуре биомассы модель аддитивной по фракционному составу биомассы насаждений двухвойных сосен, изменяющейся по трансевразийским гидротермическим градиентам, а именно, по среднегодовым осадкам и средней январской температуре воздуха. Гармонизация обеспечена аддитивностью фракционного состава, когда суммарная биомасса стволов, ветвей, хвои и корней, полученная по «фракционным» уравнениям, равняется значению биомассы, полученной по общему уравнению. Показано, что в холодных климатических поясах увеличение осадков приводит к снижению биомассы большинства фракций, а в теплых – к ее увеличению. Соответственно во влагообеспеченных районах повышение температуры вызывает увеличение биомассы, а в засушливых – ее снижение. Геометрическая интерпретация полученной модели представлена «пропеллеро-образной» поверхностью, что согласуется с аналогичными закономерностями, ранее установленными в России на локальном и региональном уровнях. Предложенная модель аддитивной структуры биомассы сосновых древостоев дает возможность прогнозировать изменение структуры биомассы, связанное с одновременным повышением или понижением температуры января и годичных осадков. Forest biomass is a key ecosystem part and an important component of the global carbon cycle. Modelling of biomass, sensitive to climate change, is fulfiled up-to-date at levels as forest stands and sample trees. However, all current studies of this matter are carried out within limited ecoregions. The database on forest biomass of the subgenus Pinus L. in Eurasia in a number of 2460 sample plots compiled by the authors is the basis for revealing transcontinental regularities. The first attempt is made to develop a biomass structure model harmonized by means of additive component composition algorithm describing biomass change in trans-Eurasian hydrothermal gradients, namely, mean annual precipitation and mean January air temperature. Additivity of biomass component composition means that the total of biomass components (stems, branches, foliage, roots) derived from component equations is equal to the result obtained using the common biomass equation. It is stated that in cold climatic zones any increase in precipitation leads to corresponding decrease in the biomass values, but in warm zones – to its increase. In wet areas, the rise in temperature causes an increase of biomass values, but in arid areas – their reductions. Geometric view of this model represented by a «propeller-shaped» surface is consistent with the results, formerly revealed by the other authors in Russia on local and regional levels. The proposed transcontinental model of additive structure of forest biomass gives a possibility to predict the change of biomass structure in relation to simultaneous increase or decrease of January temperature and annual precipitation. The development of such models for basic forest-forming species grown in Eurasia enables to forecast any changes in the biological productivity of forest cover of Eurasia in relation to climate change.

Additive Models of Single-tree Biomass Sensitive to Temperature and Precipitation in Eurasia – A Comparative Study for Larix spp. and Quercus spp.

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 37-56
Author(s):  
Vladimir Andreevich Usoltsev ◽  
Seyed Omid Reza Shobairi ◽  
Ivan Stepanovich Tsepordey
Keyword(s):  
Component Composition ◽  
Additive Models ◽  
Limiting Factors ◽  
Tree Age ◽  
Tree Biomass ◽  
Single Tree ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Additive Component ◽  
Biomass Components ◽  
Quercus Spp

In the context of current climate change, it is important to know the patterns characterising the response of forest trees to the dynamics of air temperature and precipitation. In this study, the first attempt to model changes of additive component composition of genera Larix spp. and Quercus spp. aboveground biomass according to Eurasian gradients of January’s mean temperature and annual mean precipitation is made, taking into account regional particularities of tree age and morphology structure. In the process of modelling, the database of single-tree biomass for forest-forming species in Eurasia is used. According to our results, the factors limiting the biomass of trees differ not only between the two tree genera but also between different components of biomass within the genus. In larches, the reaction of the biomass of all components to an increase in precipitation in cold zones is directly opposite in comparison with oaks, i.e. it decreases as precipitation increases. But in warm areas, the reactions of the two genera to increased precipitation coincide, i.e. precipitation does not affect the biomass of all components, both in larches and oaks. In wet areas, larch biomass components react to temperature increases in the opposite way, i.e. the aboveground and stem biomass increases, but the biomass of foliage and branches decreases. In dry areas, the reaction to the temperature of all larch and oak biomass components is unambiguous and opposite, i.e. there is a decrease in the larch biomass of all components as temperatures rise, and in oak biomass vice versa. This situation is discussed in terms of limiting factors.

scholarly journals Changes in foliage’s biomass of two-needled pine subgenus (Pinus spp.) and genus Betula spp. along the gradients of winter temperature and precipitation: inter-genera paradox in the forests of Eurasia

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vladimir Andreevich Usoltsev ◽  
Baozhang Chen ◽  
Seyed Omid Reza Shobairi ◽  
Ivan Stepanovich Tsepordey ◽  
Shoaib Ahmad Anees
Keyword(s):  
Winter Temperature ◽  
Data Matrix ◽  
Mean Annual Precipitation ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Biological Productivity ◽  
Vegetation Growth ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
The Matrix ◽  
Biomass Components ◽  
Pinus Spp

Abstract Background The main pool of publications on this topic is related to the assessment of possible changes in vegetation growth under the influence of climate, but few of them actually took account the impacts of global change on species composition and morphological (taxational) structure, so led to an unanswered question, how the biological productivity of the forests will change if air temperature and/or precipitation change up to a certain extent. This is a subject of the study. Methods In this study, our database is used in a number of 2,110 sample plots for pine and 510 for birch. In each sample plot, the biomass of the forest stands was positioned in maps of January mean temperature isolines and to mean annual precipitation ones, and the input data matrix was compiled in which the values of biomass components and of stand taxation characteristics are mated with corresponding values of climate indices. The matrix was then subjected to regression analysis. Results It is stated, in cold and insufficiently moisture–rich climate zones, temperature increase causes a decrease in biomass of Pinus foliage, and in other regions its increase, but the Betula pattern is the opposite. With an increase in precipitation, the Pinus foliage biomass in warm zones increase, and in cold ones it decreases, but the Betula pattern is the opposite. Conclusion The biomass of pine and birch stands change in gradients of winter temperature and precipitation as propeller-formed but opposite patterns, which can be explained by the different winter physiology of evergreen and deciduous species.

scholarly journals EFFECT OF THE REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE ON RUNOFF FROM THE LAKE ONEGO WATERSHED

2015 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
pp. 25
Author(s):  
L. E. Nazarova
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Hydrological Regime ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Mean Annual Precipitation ◽  
General Tendency ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation

As a result of the statistical analysis of the meteorological and water balance data for Onego Lake watershed over the period 1950-2000, noticeable changes were detected. It was found that time series of annual air temperature, precipitation and evapotranspiration over 50-year period contains positive linear trends, but no change in total streamflow to the lake has so far followed. Potential changes in the regional climate and hydrological regime for the period 2000-2050 were estimated using the results of numerical modeling with the ECHAM4/OPYC3 model for two scenarios of the global climate change. The estimation of these data shows that a general tendency to increase of annual air temperature and precipitation will remain in the new climate Mean annual precipitation will increase about 30-50 mm, mean average annual air temperature for the next 50-years period will rise from 1.6 up to 2.7-3.0 °C. Our estimation shows that for both scenarios all water balance parameters, excluding river runoff, will increase.

scholarly journals Has Prey Availability for Arctic Birds Advanced with Climate Change? Hindcasting the Abundance of Tundra Arthropods Using Weather and Seasonal Variations

ARCTIC ◽  
2009 ◽  
Vol 61 (1) ◽  
pp. 48 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ingrid Tulp ◽  
Hans Schekkerman
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Prey Availability ◽  
General Pattern ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Climatic Zones ◽  
Breeding Date ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Large Numbers ◽  
Surface Active ◽  
Arthropod Abundance

Of all climatic zones on earth, Arctic areas have experienced the greatest climate change in recent decades. Predicted changes, including a continuing rise in temperature and precipitation and a reduction in snow cover, are expected to have a large impact on Arctic life. Large numbers of birds breed on the Arctic tundra, and many of these, such as shorebirds and passerines, feed on arthropods. Their chicks depend on a short insect population outburst characteristic of Arctic areas. To predict the consequences of climate change for reproduction in these birds, insight into arthropod phenology is essential. We investigated weather-related and seasonal patterns in abundance of surface-active arthropods during four years in the tundra of NW Taimyr, Siberia. The resulting statistical models were used to hindcast arthropod abundance on the basis of a 33-year weather dataset collected in the same area. Daily insect abundance was correlated closely with date, temperature, and, in some years, with wind and precipitation. An additional correlation with the number of degree-days accumulated after 1 June suggests that the pool of potential arthropod recruits is depleted in the course of the summer. The amplitude of short-term, weather-induced variation was as large as that of the seasonal variation. The hindcasted dates of peak arthropod abundance advanced during the study period, occurring seven days earlier in 2003 than in 1973. The timing of the period during which birds have a reasonable probability of finding enough food to grow has changed as well, with the highest probabilities now occurring at earlier dates. At the same time, the overall length of the period with probabilities of finding enough food has remained unchanged. The result is an advancement of the optimal breeding date for breeding birds. To take advantage of the new optimal breeding time, Arctic shorebirds and passerines must advance the start of breeding, and this change could affect the entire migratory schedule. Because our analyses are based on a single site, we cannot conclude that this is a general pattern for the entire Arctic. To investigate the generality of this pattern, our approach should be applied at other sites too.

scholarly journals Response of altitudinal vegetation belts of the Tianshan Mountains in northwestern China to climate change during 1989–2015

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yong Zhang ◽  
Lu-yu Liu ◽  
Yi Liu ◽  
Man Zhang ◽  
Cheng-bang An
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Animal Husbandry ◽  
Forest Tree ◽  
Tianshan Mountains ◽  
Northwestern China ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Altitudinal Belts ◽  
The Impact

AbstractWithin the mountain altitudinal vegetation belts, the shift of forest tree lines and subalpine steppe belts to high altitudes constitutes an obvious response to global climate change. However, whether or not similar changes occur in steppe belts (low altitude) and nival belts in different areas within mountain systems remain undetermined. It is also unknown if these, responses to climate change are consistent. Here, using Landsat remote sensing images from 1989 to 2015, we obtained the spatial distribution of altitudinal vegetation belts in different periods of the Tianshan Mountains in Northwestern China. We suggest that the responses from different altitudinal vegetation belts to global climate change are different. The changes in the vegetation belts at low altitudes are spatially different. In high-altitude regions (higher than the forest belts), however, the trend of different altitudinal belts is consistent. Specifically, we focused on analyses of the impact of changes in temperature and precipitation on the nival belts, desert steppe belts, and montane steppe belts. The results demonstrated that the temperature in the study area exhibited an increasing trend, and is the main factor of altitudinal vegetation belts change in the Tianshan Mountains. In the context of a significant increase in temperature, the upper limit of the montane steppe in the eastern and central parts will shift to lower altitudes, which may limit the development of local animal husbandry. The montane steppe in the west, however, exhibits the opposite trend, which may augment the carrying capacity of pastures and promote the development of local animal husbandry. The lower limit of the nival belt will further increase in all studied areas, which may lead to an increase in surface runoff in the central and western regions.

scholarly journals Projections for Mexico’s Tropical Rainforests Considering Ecological Niche and Climate Change

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 119
Author(s):  
Antonio Fidel Santos-Hernández ◽  
Alejandro Ismael Monterroso-Rivas ◽  
Diódoro Granados-Sánchez ◽  
Antonio Villanueva-Morales ◽  
Malinali Santacruz-Carrillo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ecological Niche ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Tropical Rainforest ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Tropical Regions ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Ecological Importance

The tropical rainforest is one of the lushest and most important plant communities in Mexico’s tropical regions, yet its potential distribution has not been studied in current and future climate conditions. The aim of this paper was to propose priority areas for conservation based on ecological niche and species distribution modeling of 22 species with the greatest ecological importance at the climax stage. Geographic records were correlated with bioclimatic temperature and precipitation variables using Maxent and Kuenm software for each species. The best Maxent models were chosen based on statistical significance, complexity and predictive power, and current potential distributions were obtained from these models. Future potential distributions were projected with two climate change scenarios: HADGEM2_ES and GFDL_CM3 models and RCP 8.5 W/m2 by 2075–2099. All potential distributions for each scenario were then assembled for further analysis. We found that 14 tropical rainforest species have the potential for distribution in 97.4% of the landscape currently occupied by climax vegetation (0.6% of the country). Both climate change scenarios showed a 3.5% reduction in their potential distribution and possible displacement to higher elevation regions. Areas are proposed for tropical rainforest conservation where suitable bioclimatic conditions are expected to prevail.

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