scholarly journals Uncertainty in World Politics: New “Normality” or New “Abnormality”

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 304-314
Author(s):  
M. A. Neimark

In the conditions of turbulent transformations of the world order, life itself, with its contradictions, difficulties and surprises, extremely actualizes the problems associated with unforeseen risks and challenges to world development. The coronavirus pandemic has created a new “normality” or, more precisely, a new “abnormality” in which countries find themselves regardless of their geopolitical status and place in the international hierarchy. The global coronavirus crisis has exacerbated the already growing uncertainty in global political processes. Uncertainty and the associated strategic instability is a breeding ground for preserving acutely problematic nodes of global politics and delaying the search for constructive solutions that bring them closer to a mutually acceptable model of the coming world order. The phenomenon of apolarity is becoming more and more complicated and has been linked in recent years with the growing weight and influence of new geopolitical players and centers of power — China, India, Latin America states. The international positions of Russia have significantly strengthened, which has acquired a full-fledged role in global politics. In the context of the current geopolitical confrontations and competitive rivalry, the experience of understanding uncertainty in the scientific and expert communities of Russia acquires special practical and political significance.

2021 ◽  
Vol 107 (7) ◽  
pp. 152-161
Author(s):  
Mark Neimark ◽  

Transformational processes in the world are rapidly accelerating and in different versions are complexly intertwined. Deep rifts are taking place in the geopolitical space. The most acute contradictions and multidirectional tendencies of world development accumulated in the previous period continue. New points of reference have emerged in assessing the close relationship and interdependence of macroeconomic and military-political processes, which form previously unknown problem fields of world politics. Conflict confrontation between the key world centers of power, capable of creating various geopolitical configurations, where expanded opportunities for promoting their national and state interests appear. The period of intelligible, more or less ordered competitive interactions in the world seems to be coming to an end. In Western-centric geopolitical associations, the not always expected and predictable regrouping of forces and interests is taking place more frequently, fraught with serious strategic consequences. Recently in the development of the transatlantic partnership, the contradictions, problem nodes and pain points that have complicated the allied ties between the United States and the European Union have been contrasted. Disagreements in the US-EU-NATO geopolitical triangle have noticeably increased. A sign of these disagreements was the publicly announced diagnosis of "NATO brain death", which E. Macron delivered to the North Atlantic alliance in December 2019. New geopolitical dissonances have emerged in EU relations with key strategic partners.


2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 52-79
Author(s):  
V. T. Yungblud

The Yalta-Potsdam system of international relations, established by culmination of World War II, was created to maintain the security and cooperation of states in the post-war world. Leaders of the Big Three, who ensured the Victory over the fascist-militarist bloc in 1945, made decisive contribution to its creation. This system cemented the world order during the Cold War years until the collapse of the USSR in 1991 and the destruction of the bipolar structure of the organization of international relations. Post-Cold War changes stimulated the search for new structures of the international order. Article purpose is to characterize circumstances of foundations formation of postwar world and to show how the historical decisions made by the leaders of the anti-Hitler coalition powers in 1945 are projected onto modern political processes. Study focuses on interrelated questions: what was the post-war world order and how integral it was? How did the political decisions of 1945 affect the origins of the Cold War? Does the American-centrist international order, that prevailed at the end of the 20th century, genetically linked to the Atlantic Charter and the goals of the anti- Hitler coalition in the war, have a future?Many elements of the Yalta-Potsdam system of international relations in the 1990s survived and proved their viability. The end of the Cold War and globalization created conditions for widespread democracy in the world. The liberal system of international relations, which expanded in the late XX - early XXI century, is currently experiencing a crisis. It will be necessary to strengthen existing international institutions that ensure stability and security, primarily to create barriers to the spread of national egoism, radicalism and international terrorism, for have a chance to continue the liberal principles based world order (not necessarily within a unipolar system). Prerequisite for promoting idea of a liberal system of international relations is the adjustment of liberalism as such, refusal to unilaterally impose its principles on peoples with a different set of values. This will also require that all main participants in modern in-ternational life be able to develop a unilateral agenda for common problems and interstate relations, interact in a dialogue mode, delving into the arguments of opponents and taking into account their vital interests.


Author(s):  
Vasyl Karpo ◽  
Nataliia Nechaieva-Yuriichuk

From ancient times till nowadays information plays a key role in the political processes. The beginning of XXI century demonstrated the transformation of global security from military to information, social etc. aspects. The widening of pandemic demonstrated the weaknesses of contemporary authoritarian states and the power of human-oriented states. During the World War I the theoretical and practical interest toward political manipulation and political propaganda grew definitely. After 1918 the situation developed very fast and political propaganda became the part of political influence. XX century entered into the political history as the millennium of propaganda. The collapse of the USSR and socialist system brought power to new political actors. The global architecture of the world has changed. Former Soviet republic got independence and tried to separate from Russia. And Ukraine was between them. The Revolution of Dignity in Ukraine was the start point for a number of processes in world politics. But the most important was the fact that the role and the place of information as the challenge to world security was reevaluated. The further annexation of Crimea, the attempt to legitimize it by the comparing with the referendums in Scotland and Catalonia demonstrated the willingness of Russian Federation to keep its domination in the world. The main difference between the referendums in Scotland and in Catalonia was the way of Russian interference. In 2014 (Scotland) tried to delegitimised the results of Scottish referendum because they were unacceptable for it. But in 2017 we witness the huge interference of Russian powers in Spain internal affairs, first of all in spreading the independence moods in Catalonia. The main conclusion is that the world has to learn some lessons from Scottish and Catalonia cases and to be ready to new challenges in world politics in a format of information threats.


Author(s):  
U.S. ALIYEV

In the context of the formation of a new world order, there is a need to make changes to the development strategy of the Eurasian Economic Union and, even more broadly, integration processes in the post-Soviet space. These changes should take into account the changes taking place in the world, the emergence of new properties of world politics, which are often generically called turbulence. The components of turbulence are conflictness and uncertainty, but this is not the whole list, there are other components. On the example of the Transnistrian conflict settlement, it is shown that success in this process is possible if we are not confined to the conflict itself, but we act on the basis of Russias and the European Unions mutual desire to reduce conflictness in the world and in the European region. Uncertainties can be contrasted with the emergence of military-political factor as the leading one of Eurasian integration in the form of rapprochement and the gradual merger of the Eurasian Economic Union and the Collective Security Treaty Organization.


1978 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 555-587 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samuel S. Kim

This paper makes a macro-inquiry into Chinese global politics by defining and elaborating the Chinese image and strategy of world order within a normative framework. Empirical data and behavioral referents in the paper are largely drawn from Chinese multilateral diplomacy in the global community during the first half-decade (1971–1976) of Chinese participation in UN. Such a normative-globalist paradigm has a heuristic value in interpreting more broadly China's global policy and its impact on the evolving process of creating a more just and humane world order. The paper argues that the interactions between China and the world organization have, on the whole, been positive and that the relationship between the two has been one of mutual adjustment and mutual legitimization, with the resulting enhancement of each other's symbolic capability. By way of conclusion, the paper draws, in a tentative and speculative manner, some broad policy implications of the post-Mao leadership.


Author(s):  
Babek R. Asadov ◽  
Vladimir A. Gavrilenko ◽  
Stanislav B. Nemchenko

The object of study is the BRICS activities as a special format of multilateral interaction between states. We consider the theory of above-mentioned interaction and cooperation of countries, which are expressed in the implementation of a joint policy on a number of issues. The evolution of BRICS and its unification in the international legal space contributes to ob-servance of common interests and views of BRICS participants on the prob-lems of modern international relations, reflects the objective trends of world development and the formation of a multipolar system of international rela-tions, ensures the interests of individual major state actors in broad interna-tional integration. The relevance of the issues under study lies in the fact that individual features of the international legal status of BRICS are investigated, which make it possible to effectively influence the challenges of modern world. The legal status of BRICS is fundamentally different from traditional legal approaches to international organizations and acting as a special subject of world politics, creating the most trusting conditions for interaction, BRICS focuses on other principles of world order within the framework of a new model of global relations.


Author(s):  
Regan Burles

Abstract Geopolitics has become a key site for articulating the limits of existing theories of international relations and exploring possibilities for alternative political formations that respond to the challenges posed by massive ecological change and global patterns of violence and inequality. This essay addresses three recent books on geopolitics in the age of the Anthropocene: Simon Dalby's Anthropocene Geopolitics: Globalization, Security, Sustainability (2020), Jairus Victor Grove's Savage Ecology: War and Geopolitics at the End of the World (2019), and Bruno Latour's Down to Earth: Politics in the New Climactic Regime (2018). The review outlines and compares how these authors pose contemporary geopolitics as a problem and offer political ecology as the ground for an alternative geopolitics. The essay considers these books in the context of critiques of world politics in international relations to shed light on both the contributions and the limits of political ecological theories of global politics. I argue that the books under review encounter problems and solutions posed in Kant's critical and political writings in relation to the concepts of epigenesis and teleology. These provoke questions about the ontological conceptions of order that enable claims to world political authority in the form of a global international system coextensive with the earth's surface.


2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 73-86
Author(s):  
V.E. BAGDASARYAN ◽  
◽  

The purpose of the article is to present an analysis of modern global political processes characterized by the unipolarity of the destruction of the former world system. The current situation of political transit is assessed as a failure of technologies of controlled chaos and transition to a state of turbulence. The basic approach of the research was the methodology of world-systems analysis. The article provides arguments that substantiate the systemic nature of the crisis of the World Center, the problematic nature of the restoration of the unipolar system of the world order. Four scenario perspectives of further development of the world political process are considered: 1. restoration of the leadership legitimacy of the World Center; 2. change of the core of the world system; 3. transition of a state of chaos to a global catastrophe; 4. the establishment of a system of a multilateral world of civilizations. It is indicated that the West-centered world-system has paradoxically diverged at some stage from the values of the Western civilization itself. And it is obvious that the transition to a multilateral world should be linked to the basic civilizational values of the world-systems, their differences from the values of other communities. As a result, practical recommendations are presented for the activity steps of building a system of multilateral world order as a desirable prospect for overcoming the state of turbulence and preventing a new geopolitical hegemony.


Author(s):  
Beate Jahn

Since the end of the Cold War, peacebuilding operations have become an integral part of world politics—despite their continuing failures. This chapter provides an account of peacebuilding operations in practice and identifies cycles of failure and reform, namely the successful integration of peacebuilding into the fabric of the world order despite its continuing failures. It traces these dynamics back to the internal contradictions of liberalism and argues that the main function of peacebuilding operations lies in managing the tensions and contradictions inherent in a liberal world order. Peacebuilding—in one form or another—is therefore likely to persist for the duration of a liberal world order.


2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 137-167
Author(s):  
Andrei Melville ◽  
Andrei Akhremenko ◽  
Mikhail Mironyuk

There is a striking opposition within the current discourse on Russia’s position in the world. On the one hand, there are well-known arguments about Russia’s “weak hand” (relatively small and stagnating economy, vulnerability to sanctions, technological backwardness, deteriorating demography, corruption, bad institutions, etc.). On the other hand, Russia is accused of “global revisionism”, attempts to reshape and undermine the liberal world order, and Western democracy itself. There seems to be a paradox: Russia with a perceived decline of major resources of national power, exercises dramatically increased international influence. This paradox of power and/or influence is further explored. This paper introduces a new complex Index of national power. On the basis of ratings of countries authors compare the dynamics of distribution of power in the world with a focus on Russia’s national power in world politics since 1995. The analysis brings evidence that the cumulative resources of Russia’s power in international affairs did not increase during the last two decades. However, Russia’s influence in world politics has significantly increased as demonstrated by assertive foreign policy in different parts of the world and its perception by the international political community and the public. Russia remains a major power in today’s world, although some of its power resources are stagnating or decreasing in comparison to the US and rising China. To compensate for weaknesses Russia is using both traditional and nontraditional capabilities of international influence.


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