scholarly journals Investigation of the effect of climate change on heat waves

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 54-60 ◽  
Author(s):  
Safieh Javadinejad ◽  
◽  
Rebwar Dara ◽  
Forough Jafary ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heat Waves ◽  
Temperature Data ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Thermal Waves ◽  
Cmip5 Model ◽  
Base Period ◽  
Short Term ◽  
South Sea ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Research Show

The purpose of this research is to identify the heat waves of the South Sea of Iran and compare the conditions in the present and future. To reach this goal, the average daily temperature of 35 years has been used. Also, in order to predict future heat waves, the maximum temperature data of four models of the CMIP5 model series, according to the RCP 8.5 scenario, has been used for the period 2040-2074. In order to reverse the output of the climatic models, artificial neural networks were used to identify the thermal waves, and the Fumiaki index was used to determine the thermal waves. Using the programming in MATLAB software, the days when their temperature exceeded 2 standard deviations as a thermal wave were identified. The results of the research show that the short-term heat waves are more likely to occur. Heat waves in the base period have a significant but poorly developed trend, so that the frequency has increased in recent years. In the period from 2040 to 2074, the frequency of thermal waves has a significant decreasing trend, but usually with low coefficients. However, for some stations from 2040 to 2074, the frequency of predicted heat waves increased.

scholarly journals Effect of climate change on heat waves in the South Sea of Iran

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 87-93
Author(s):  
J. Safieh ◽  
D. Rebwar ◽  
J. Forough
Keyword(s):  
Heat Waves ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Thermal Waves ◽  
Cmip5 Model ◽  
Base Period ◽  
The South ◽  
Short Term ◽  
South Sea ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Research Show

The purpose of this research is to identify the heat waves of the South Sea of Iran and compare the conditions in the present and future. To reach this goal, the average daily temperature of 35 years has been used. Also, in order to predict future heat waves, the maximum temperature data of four models of the CMIP5 model series, according to the RCP 8.5 scenario, has been used for the period 2040-2074. In order to reverse the output of the climatic models, artificial neural networks were used to identify the thermal waves, and the Fumiaki index was used to determine the thermal waves. Using the programming in MATLAB software, the days when their temperature exceeded 2 standard deviations as a thermal wave were identified. The results of the research show that the short-term heat waves are more likely to occur. Heat waves in the base period have a significant but poorly developed trend, so that the frequency has increased in recent years. In the period from 2040 to 2074, the frequency of thermal waves has a significant decreasing trend, but usually with low coefficients. However, for some stations from 2040 to 2074, the frequency of predicted heat waves increased.

Estimate the probability density function of maximum temperature for the Middle East

2020 ◽  
Vol 29 (4) ◽  
pp. 517-531
Author(s):  
Iqbal Al-Ataby ◽  
Amani Al-Tmimi
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Temperature Data ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Logistic Distribution ◽  
Recent Past ◽  
Ecmwf Model ◽  
Best Fit

Pollution is one reasons for increase temperature which leads to increase the heat waves which have large socioeconomic and healthy impacts on Middle East. By using monthly daily mean of maximum temperature (C°) at height (2m) covered middle east as a grid of (1581) points for selected months (March, April, May) represent spring and (Jun, July, August) represent Summer for the period 1979 to2018, from the ECMWF, model ERA-interim. Many PDFs have been proposed in recent past, but in present study Logistic, Rayleigh and Gamma distribution are used to describe the characteristics of maximum temperature. This paper attempts to determine the best fitted probability distribution of maximum temperature. To check the accuracy of the predicted data using theoretical probability distributions the goodness of fit criteria Z-test used in this paper. According to the goodness-of-fit criteria and from the graphical comparisons it can be said that Logistic distribution provides the best fit for the observed monthly daily mean of maximum temperature data.

scholarly journals The Effect of the Thermal Mass of the Building Envelope on Summer Overheating of Dwellings in a Temperate Climate

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (14) ◽  
pp. 4117
Author(s):  
Tadeusz Kuczyński ◽  
Anna Staszczuk ◽  
Piotr Ziembicki ◽  
Anna Paluszak
Keyword(s):  
Building Materials ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Residential Buildings ◽  
Building Envelope ◽  
Temperate Climate ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Thermal Mass ◽  
Occupant Behavior ◽  
Average Maximum ◽  
Night Ventilation

The main objective of this paper is to demonstrate the effectiveness of increasing the thermal capacity of a residential building by using traditional building materials to reduce the risk of its excessive overheating during intense heat waves in a temperate climate. An additional objective is to show that the use of this single passive measure significantly reduces the risk of overheating in daytime rooms, but also, though to a much lesser extent, in bedrooms. Increasing the thermal mass of the room from light to a medium heavy reduced the average maximum daily temperature by 2.2K during the first heat wave and by 2.6K during the other two heat waves. The use of very heavy construction further reduced the average maximum temperature for the heat waves analyzed by 1.4K, 1.2K and 1.7K, respectively, giving a total possible reduction in maximum daily temperatures in the range of 3.6 °C, 3.8 °C and 4.3 °C. A discussion of the influence of occupant behavior on the use of night ventilation and external blinds was carried out, finding a significant effect on the effectiveness of the use of both methods. The results of the study suggest that in temperate European countries, preserving residential construction methods with heavy envelopes and partitions could significantly reduce the risk of overheating in residential buildings over the next few decades, without the need for night ventilation or external blinds, whose effectiveness is highly dependent on individual occupant behavior.

scholarly journals Climate bones of contention: How climate variability influences territorial, maritime, and river interstate conflicts

2021 ◽  
Vol 58 (1) ◽  
pp. 132-150
Author(s):  
Cody J Schmidt ◽  
Bomi K Lee ◽  
Sara McLaughlin Mitchell
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
World Politics ◽  
Western Hemisphere ◽  
Intrastate Conflict ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Interstate Conflicts ◽  
The Relationship

Many scholars examine the relationship between climate variability and intrastate conflict onset. While empirical findings in this literature are mixed, we know less about how climate changes increase the risks for conflicts between countries. This article studies climate variability using the issue approach to world politics. We examine whether climate variability influences the onset and militarization of interstate diplomatic conflicts and whether these effects are similar across issues that involve sovereignty claims for land (territory) or water (maritime, river). We focus on two theoretical mechanisms: scarcity ( abundance) and uncertainty. We measure these concepts empirically through climate deviation (e.g. droughts/floods, heat waves/cold spells) and climate volatility (greater short-term variance in precipitation/temperature). Analyses of issue claims in the Western Hemisphere and Europe (1901–2001) show that greater deviations and volatility in climate conditions increase risks for new diplomatic conflicts and militarization of ongoing issues and that climate change acts as a trigger for revisionist states.

scholarly journals Analytical Determination of the Brake Temperature Mode During Repetitive Short-Term Braking

Materials ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (8) ◽  
pp. 1912
Author(s):  
Aleksander Yevtushenko ◽  
Katarzyna Topczewska ◽  
Michal Kuciej
Keyword(s):  
Friction Pair ◽  
Thermal Sensitivity ◽  
Finite Difference Methods ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
Frictional Heat ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Analytical Determination ◽  
Flash Temperature ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The One

An algorithm to determine the maximum temperature of brake systems during repetitive short-term (RST) braking mode has been proposed. For this purpose, the intermittent mode of braking was given in the form of a few cyclic stages consisting of subsequent braking and acceleration processes. Based on the Chichinadze’s hypothesis of temperature summation, the evolutions of the maximum temperature during each cycle were calculated as the sum of the mean temperature on the nominal contact surface of the friction pair elements and temperature attained on the real contact areas (flash temperature). In order to find the first component, the analytical solution to the one-dimensional thermal problem of friction for two semi-spaces taking into account frictional heat generation was adapted. To find the flash temperature, the solution to the problem for the semi-infinite rod sliding with variable velocity against a smooth surface was used. In both solutions, the temperature-dependent coefficient of friction and thermal sensitivity of materials were taken into account. Numerical calculations were carried out for disc and drum brake systems. The obtained temporal variations of sliding velocity, friction power and temperature were investigated on each stage of braking. It was found that the obtained results agree well with the corresponding data established by finite element and finite-difference methods.

scholarly journals A hydrological modelling-based approach for vulnerable area identification under changing climate scenarios

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sonam S. Dash ◽  
Dipaka R. Sena ◽  
Uday Mandal ◽  
Anil Kumar ◽  
Gopal Kumar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Fold Increase ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Vulnerable Area ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Monthly Streamflow ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Streamflow Data ◽  
Critical Zones

Abstract The hydrologic behaviour of the Brahmani River basin (BRB) (39,633.90 km2), India was assessed for the base period (1970–1999) and future climate scenarios (2050) using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Monthly streamflow data of 2000–2009 and 2010–2012 was used for calibration and validation, respectively, and performed satisfactorily with Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (ENS) of 0.52–0.55. The projected future climatic outcomes of the HadGEM2-ES model indicated that minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and precipitation may increase by 1.11–3.72 °C, 0.27–2.89 °C, and 16–263 mm, respectively, by 2050. The mean annual streamflow over the basin may increase by 20.86, 11.29, 4.45, and 37.94% under RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5, respectively, whereas the sediment yield is likely to increase by 23.34, 10.53, 2.45, and 27.62% under RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5, respectively, signifying RCP 8.5 to be the most adverse scenario for the BRB. Moreover, a ten-fold increase in environmental flow (defined as Q90) by the mid-century period is expected under the RCP 8.5 scenario. The vulnerable area assessment revealed that the increase in moderate and high erosion-prone regions will be more prevalent in the mid-century. The methodology developed herein could be successfully implemented for identification and prioritization of critical zones in worldwide river basins.

scholarly journals Heat Exposure and Youth Migration in Central America and the Caribbean

2017 ◽  
Vol 107 (5) ◽  
pp. 446-450 ◽  
Author(s):  
Javier Baez ◽  
German Caruso ◽  
Valerie Mueller ◽  
Chiyu Niu
Keyword(s):  
Central America ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Heat Exposure ◽  
Temperature Data ◽  
Urban Centers ◽  
Standard Deviation Increase ◽  
Heat Effects ◽  
Triple Difference ◽  
The Caribbean ◽  
Youth Migration

We employ a triple difference-in-difference approach, using censuses and georeferenced temperature data, to quantify heat effects on internal migration in Central America and the Caribbean. A 1-standard deviation increase in heat would affect the lives of 7,314 and 1,578 unskilled young women and men. The effect is smaller than observed in response to droughts and hurricanes but could increase with climate change. Interestingly, youth facing heat waves are more likely to move to urban centers than when exposed to disasters endemic to the region. Research identifying the implications of these choices and interventions available to minimize distress migration is warranted.

On the factors contributing to heat waves in Europe. A global large ensemble approach with MPAS

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerhard Smiatek ◽  
Harald Kunstmann
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Circulation Pattern ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Large Ensemble ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Weather Patterns ◽  
Potential Factors

<p>The European summer heat wave of 2003 with record-breaking temperature anomalies was brought into connection with a blocking Omega circulation pattern, soil moisture deficit and high sea surface temperature, especially in the Mediterranean Sea. <sup> </sup>We investigate the potential factors influencing extreme heat waves in Europe with a very large ensemble obtained from multiple global integrations of the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS). The global MPAS runs are performed in approximately 60 km resolution with sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice extent from ERA-Interim data as boundary condition initialized on different days.</p><p>The contribution investigates the results obtained from a total of 540 simulations. It concentrates on the regional SST and weather patterns and moisture obtained in simulations contributing to the upper 10% of the resulting probability density function (PDF) of the summer daily mean and maximum temperature. The investigation considers in total eight standard evaluation domains in Europe as defined in the PRUDENCE project.</p>

scholarly journals Extreme heat in India and anthropogenic climate change

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 365-381 ◽  
Author(s):  
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh ◽  
Sjoukje Philip ◽  
Sarah Kew ◽  
Michiel van Weele ◽  
Peter Uhe ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Health Effects ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Health Impact ◽  
Heat Index ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Surface Cooling

Abstract. On 19 May 2016 the afternoon temperature reached 51.0 °C in Phalodi in the northwest of India – a new record for the highest observed maximum temperature in India. The previous year, a widely reported very lethal heat wave occurred in the southeast, in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, killing thousands of people. In both cases it was widely assumed that the probability and severity of heat waves in India are increasing due to global warming, as they do in other parts of the world. However, we do not find positive trends in the highest maximum temperature of the year in most of India since the 1970s (except spurious trends due to missing data). Decadal variability cannot explain this, but both increased air pollution with aerosols blocking sunlight and increased irrigation leading to evaporative cooling have counteracted the effect of greenhouse gases up to now. Current climate models do not represent these processes well and hence cannot be used to attribute heat waves in this area. The health effects of heat are often described better by a combination of temperature and humidity, such as a heat index or wet bulb temperature. Due to the increase in humidity from irrigation and higher sea surface temperatures (SSTs), these indices have increased over the last decades even when extreme temperatures have not. The extreme air pollution also exacerbates the health impacts of heat. From these factors it follows that, from a health impact point of view, the severity of heat waves has increased in India. For the next decades we expect the trend due to global warming to continue but the surface cooling effect of aerosols to diminish as air quality controls are implemented. The expansion of irrigation will likely continue, though at a slower pace, mitigating this trend somewhat. Humidity will probably continue to rise. The combination will result in a strong rise in the temperature of heat waves. The high humidity will make health effects worse, whereas decreased air pollution would decrease the impacts.

scholarly journals Kajian Kesesuaian Lahan Perkebunan Kopi Rakyat Kawasan Lereng Gunung Arjuna Kabupaten Malang

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 108
Author(s):  
Dimas Prakoswo Widayani ◽  
Kresna Shifa Usodri
Keyword(s):  
Temperature Data ◽  
Land Suitability ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Cultivated Plants ◽  
Survey Method ◽  
Mountainous Area ◽  
Suitability Analysis ◽  
Arabica Coffee ◽  
Land Suitability Analysis ◽  
Coffee Plants

Mount Arjuna is a mountainous area with forests and several cultivated plants located in Malang Regency, East Java. The forest is a complex area that is used as a protected area, research and production forest for agricultural commodities. The complex is located in the forest resulted in highly varied environmental conditions. The forest consists of several areas, namely protected forest, production forest, coffee plantation, and seasonal plantations. The Arjuna mountain area has several stands including pine and mahogany, but most of it is filled with pines by 90% and mahogany trees around 10%. Most of the coffee plants found in the Arjuna mountain forest area are Arabica coffee, while the rest is robusta coffee. This research was conducted on the slopes of Mount Arjuna, located in Sumbersari Village, Karangploso District, Malang Regency, East Java. This research was conducted from July to October 2017. This research employed a survey method by taking several sample points that represent the coffee plants in the area. Several sampling plots for land suitability analysis were identified in the area: The observation stages were carried out by taking air temperature data using a thermohygrometer by taking the minimum and maximum temperature data, taking air humidity using a thermohigrometer as well as minimum and maximum data and light intensity data using lux meters, taking soil samples to measure nutrients and soil fertility, and measuring the height and slope of the land. The results of the observations that have been made will be analyzed using the land suitability analysis method, by adjusting the area's data with the land suitability level for robusta and arabica coffee plants.Gunung Arjuna merupakan kawasan pegunungan dengan hutan serta beberapa tanaman budidaya yang terletak di Kabupaten Malang, Jawa Timur. Hutan tersebut merupakan kawasan kompleks yang dimanfaatkan sebagai kawasan lindung, riset dan juga hutan produksi untuk komoditas pertanian. Kondisi hutan yang kompleks mengakibatkan kondisi lingkungan tersebut sangat bervariatif. Hutan terdiri dari beberapa kawasanya, yaitu hutan lindung, hutan produksi, perkebunan kopi serta kawasan tanaman semusim. Kawasan gunung Arjuna memiliki beberapa tegakan diantaranya pinus dan mahoni namun sebagian besar dipenuhi oleh pinus sebesar 90% dan pohon mahoni berkisar 10%. Sebagian besar tanaman kopi yang terdapat pada kawasan hutan gunung Arjuna adalah jenis kopi arabika sedangkan sisanya adalah kopi robusta. Penelitian ini dilakukan di kawasan lereng Gunung Arjuna, Terletak di Desa Sumbersari, Kecamatan Karangploso, Kabupaten Malang, Jawa Timur. Penelitian ini akan dilaksanakan pada bulan Juli–Oktober 2017. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode survei dengan mengambil beberapa titik sampel yang mewakili yang mewakili tanaman kopi di kawasan tesebut. Beberapa plot sampel pengambilan sampel untuk analisis kesesuaian lahan diidentifikasi pada kawasan: Adapun tahapan pengamatan yang dilakukanya itu pengambilan data suhu udara menggunakan termohigrometer dengan mengambil data suhu minimum dan maksimum, pengambilan kelembapan udara dengan alat termohigrometer juga data minimum dan maksimum serta data intensitas cahaya menggunakan lux meter, pengambilan sampel tanah untuk mengukur hara serta kesuburan tanah, mengukur ketinggian serta tingkat kelerengan lahan. Hasil pengamatan yang telah dilakukan akan dianalisis menggunakan metode analisis kesesuaian lahan, dengan menyesuaikan data kawasan tersebut dengan tingkat kesesuaian lahan untuk tanaman kopi robusta dan arabika.

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