Socio-Economic Determinants of Employment: A Case study of Pakistan

Muhammad Atif Adeem;  Muhammad Sibt-e-Ali;  Raheel Akhtar

doi:10.26710/jafee.v5i1.724

Socio-Economic Determinants of Employment: A Case study of Pakistan

Journal of Accounting and Finance in Emerging Economies ◽

10.26710/jafee.v5i1.724 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 5 (1) ◽

pp. 71-82

Author(s):

Muhammad Atif Adeem ◽

Muhammad Sibt-e-Ali ◽

Raheel Akhtar

Keyword(s):

Positive Relationship ◽

Negative Relationship ◽

Political Stability ◽

Positive Relation ◽

Economic Determinants ◽

Long Run ◽

Short Period ◽

Short Run ◽

Time Periods ◽

High Level

This research is the foremost determination to investigate the long and short run affiliation amongst the variables of employment. For this purpose we use ARDL bound tests. The data from the period of 1972 to 2016 has been used in this research. These results indicate that employment has statistically significant and positive relationship between the variables of employment. Orders of integration of variables used in this analysis are I (O) and I (1). The results of this study show that per capita of GDP and expenditures of government have significant positive relationship with the employment in both time periods, the short and long run. Thenoteworthyempirical relationship is found in long run between GFCF, while in short period of time it shows destructive relation with employment. While FDI shows a high level of significant and positive relation both in long run and short run. Secondary school enrolment has significant and positive relation with employment in both time periods the long and short run time period. The relationship of money supply with employment in long run is positive while in short run it shows significant but negative relation with employment. Trade and political stability both are the main factors to estimate the strength of an economy. According to this study trade and political stability shows significant and positive relation with employment in long run while in short run both shows negative relationship with employment.

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An autoregressive analysis of the determinants of private savings in Nigeria

Review of Innovation and Competitiveness ◽

10.32728/ric.2020.61/1 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 6 (1) ◽

pp. 5-20

Author(s):

Adeniyi J. Adedokun ◽

Olabusuyi R. Falayi ◽

Adebowale M. Adeleke

Keyword(s):

Social Security ◽

Positive Relationship ◽

Negative Relationship ◽

Output Growth ◽

Series Data ◽

Significant Positive Relationship ◽

Social Security Payment ◽

Long Run ◽

Short Run ◽

Private Savings

Purpose. Despite the increasing trend of private savings in Nigeria, the country is still characterised by low investment and output growth, thus, suggesting that the average saving rate is still far from being impressive. This study investigates the determinants of private savings in Nigeria. Methodology. Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model using annual time series data from 1981 to 2016 within the theoretical framework derived from the life-cycle hypothesis is employed in this study. The key variables under investigation are private savings, income, dependency ratio, real interest rate, social security payment, financial development and macroeconomic stability. The data used for analysis are sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin (2016) and World Development Indicator (2016). Findings. The results show that lifetime income and social security payment have significant positive relationship with private saving in the long-run, while adult dependency has significant negative relationship. In the short-run, adult dependency and social security payment have significant positive relationship with private savings. In addition, the result shows that 62% of deviation from the long-run equilibrium level of private savings is annually corrected for by the model estimated. Originality. This research investigates both the long-run and short-run effects of the various determinants of private savings in Nigeria. Thus, the study can serve as eye opener to the important variables that can improve the level of private savings in Nigeria.

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Determinants of Budget Deficit in Nigeria

Journal of International Business, Economics and Entrepreneurship ◽

10.24191/jibe.v6i1.14199 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 6 (1) ◽

pp. 1

Author(s):

Maimuna M Shehu ◽

Ibrahim M Adamu

Keyword(s):

Budget Deficit ◽

Budget Deficits ◽

Cointegrating Vector ◽

Long Run ◽

Johansen Cointegration ◽

Short Run ◽

Johansen Cointegration Test ◽

The Government ◽

One Year ◽

High Level

This paper investigates the factors governing the determination of budget deficit in Nigeria from 1981q1 through 2016q4. Our methodology is based on Johansen cointegration and Vector Error Correction model (VECM) approach. The result from the Johansen cointegration test suggests one cointegrating vector, which indicates the existence of a long run cointegrating relationship. Evidence from the long run and short run parameters suggest that exchange rate, interest rate and one year lag of budget deficit are the major determinants of budget deficit. Therefore, to achieve a realistic fiscal surplus, the government should determine a high level of accountability in its fiscal operations. In addition, any fiscal surplus should be channeled into productive investments to diversify the economy and reduce the likelihood of potential budget deficits.

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Foreign Exchange Exposure and Hedging of Turkish Companies: Panel Data Evidence

International Business Research ◽

10.5539/ibr.v9n6p44 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 9 (6) ◽

pp. 44

Author(s):

Mahmut Erdogan

Keyword(s):

Panel Data ◽

Foreign Exchange ◽

Positive Relationship ◽

Negative Relationship ◽

Empirical Support ◽

Turnover Ratio ◽

Time Horizons ◽

Short Run ◽

Asset Turnover ◽

Foreign Exchange Exposure

This study investigates the foreign exchange exposure and determinants of risk for different time horizons of Turkish companies from 1997 to 2011. In order to analyze the effect of the 2001 crisis, the study is split into two sub-periods: pre-crisis, and post-crisis. The empirical findings of the study suggest a negative relationship between exposure and asset turnover ratio, and profit margin, while there was a positive relationship between exposure and leverage. The study also provides empirical support for the fact that the companies with a higher export rate are exposed to higher risk. Finally, large companies are subject to less risk in the short run.

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Determinants of Total Factor Productivity in Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Turkey (1980–2014)

Emerging Economy Studies ◽

10.1177/2394901518795072 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 4 (2) ◽

pp. 192-217 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Phillip Akanni Olomola ◽

Tolulope Temilola Osinubi

Keyword(s):

Human Capital ◽

Total Factor Productivity ◽

Negative Relationship ◽

Annual Data ◽

Factor Productivity ◽

Distributed Lag ◽

Long Run ◽

The World ◽

Government Stability ◽

Short Run

This study analyzed the macroeconomic and institutional determinants of total factor productivity (TFP) in the MINT (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Turkey) countries during the period 1980–2014. Annual data covering the period between 1980 and 2014 were used. Data on real gross domestic product (real GDP), labor force, gross fixed capital formation, foreign direct investment (FDI), human capital, and inflation were sourced from the World Development Indicators published by the World Bank. Also, data on corruption, government stability, and law and order were obtained from the database of International Country Risk Guide. Panel autoregressive distributed lag (PARDL) regression technique was used to estimate the model. Results showed that TFP growth rate declined on average by 1.4 per cent and 1.8 per cent in Mexico and Turkey, respectively, while Indonesia and Nigeria did not experience productivity growth on the average. Results also showed that in the long run, human capital and government stability had positive and significant effects on TFP, while FDI and corruption had negative but significant effects on TFP. In the short run, there existed a significant negative relationship between TFP and inflation. However, the effects of human capital and corruption on TFP were positive and significant. The study concluded that human capital and corruption were key drivers of TFP in the MINT countries both in the long run and short run.

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MONETARY POLICY AND TELECOMMUNICATION OUTPUT IN NIGERIA

J-MACC : Journal of Management and Accounting ◽

10.52166/j-macc.v3i2.2070 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 3 (2) ◽

pp. 62-73

Author(s):

John Abiodun Akinde ◽

Elijah Oludayo

Keyword(s):

Monetary Policy ◽

Money Supply ◽

Negative Relationship ◽

Negative Influence ◽

Favourable Effect ◽

Data Series ◽

Long Run ◽

Integration Test ◽

Short Run ◽

Positive Effect

Different policies impact on the growth of the telecommunication sector in Nigeria. One of these policies which influence the expansion or contraction of the telecommunication output is monetary policy. To this end, this research examined the effect of monetary policy on telecommunication output in Nigeria. For the purpose of analysis, time series secondary data were sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) statistical bulletin covering the periods1986 to 2018. Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) technique was employed after examining the stationarity of the data series using Augmented Dickey-Fuller technique. The bound co-integration test revealed that there is long run equilibrium between the monetary policy variables employed and telecommunication output. The ARDL result revealed that money supply had significant and positive effect on telecommunication output in the short and long run; liquidity ratio produced an insignificant and negative relationship with telecommunication output in the short run and insignificant positive effect in the long run; exchange rate had insignificant negative effect in the short run and a significant positive effect on telecommunication output in the long run; consumer price index had significant negative influence on telecommunication outputboth in the short run and long run. The study concluded that monetary policy stimulates telecommunication output in Nigeria. Thus, it was recommended that the monetary authority should pursue an expansionary monetary policy to sustain the positive influence of money supply on telecommunication output in Nigeria while rolling out policy to reduce the liquidity ratio of banks in the short run but increase it in the long run so that the long term favourable effect of liquidity ratio can be felt on telecommunication output.

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Research On Monetary Neutrality: Evidence From Exchange Rate And Trade Balance Of G-7 Countries

Journal of Applied Business Research (JABR) ◽

10.19030/jabr.v24i2.1351 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 24 (2) ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Doh-Khul Kim

Keyword(s):

Exchange Rate ◽

Real Exchange Rate ◽

Trade Balance ◽

Monetary Shocks ◽

Font Size ◽

Long Run ◽

Short Period ◽

Short Run ◽

Monetary Neutrality ◽

Nominal Shocks

According to a recent paper by Fisher and Huh (2002), in contrast to a long-run neutrality hypothesis, nominal shocks have long-run effects on a country’s real exchange rate and trade balance. However employing a similar method (VAR) with identical restrictions (long-run neutrality and short-run recursive hypotheses), this paper shows that the effects on the real exchange rate are much shorter in this G-7 country study than what Fisher and Huh (2002) contend. Further, the trade balance improves for a short period of time, from which it can conclude there is a shorter existence of the depreciation effect in response to expansionary monetary shocks, which supports the long-run neutrality hypothesis in an open macroeconomic framework.

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Political Stability and its Impact on Economic Growth of Pakistan (1988-2018): A Time Series Analysis

Journal of Accounting and Finance in Emerging Economies ◽

10.26710/jafee.v6i1.1087 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 6 (1) ◽

pp. 273-282

Author(s):

Majid Hussain Phul ◽

Muhammad Saleem Rahpoto ◽

Ghulam Muhammad Mangnejo

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Time Series ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Political Stability ◽

Series Data ◽

Explanatory Variables ◽

Long Run ◽

Short Run ◽

The Impact ◽

Positive Effect

This research paper empirically investigates the outcome of Political stability on economic growth (EG) of Pakistan for the period of 1988 to 2018. Political stability (PS), gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), total labor force (TLF) and Inflation (INF) are important explanatory variables. Whereas for model selection GDPr is used as the dependent variable. To check the stationary of time series data Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root (UR) test has been used, and whereas to find out the long run relationship among variables, OLS method has been used. The analysis the impact of PS on EG (EG) in the short run, VAR model has been used. The outcomes show that all the variables (PS, GFCF, TLF and INF) have a significantly positive effect on the EG of Pakistan in the long run period. But the effect of PS on GDP is smaller. Further, in this research we are trying to see the short run relationship between GDP and other explanatory variables. The outcomes show that PS does not have such effect on GDP in the short run analysis. While GFCF, TLF and INF have significantly positive effect on GDP of Pakistan in the short run period.

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Analysis of Internal and External Determinant Variables towards Profitability of Islamic Banking in Indonesia (2014-2020)

Indonesian Interdisciplinary Journal of Sharia Economics (IIJSE) ◽

10.31538/iijse.v4i1.1442 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 4 (1) ◽

pp. 18-34

Author(s):

Febri Ramadhani ◽

Muhammad Rizkan

Keyword(s):

Negative Relationship ◽

Banking System ◽

Islamic Banking ◽

Correction Model ◽

Factors Affecting ◽

Vector Error Correction ◽

Vector Error ◽

Long Run ◽

Short Run ◽

Relationship Of

Indonesia is a country that adheres to a dual banking system, namely conventional and Islamic Banking. The growth rate of Islamic banking in the last three years is higher than conventional banking. However, in total assets, Islamic banking is still far behind conventional banking. Therefore, it is necessary to study further the performance of Islamic banking reflected in its profitability. So, it becomes an alternative input in determining Islamic banking policies. This study aims to know the factors affecting the profitability (ROA) of Islamic Banking in Indonesia. The data used are the 2014-2020 monthly data in the amount of 79 data. The method used in this study is a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to determine the effect of long-run and short-run relationships. The results of the study showed that the long-run relationship of the NPF variable affected and was significant positive toward ROA, CAR affected and was significant negative toward ROA, while the inflation variable had a negative relationship and not significant toward ROA. The results of the short-run relationships showed that the NPF and CAR variables positively affected ROA, while the inflation variable did not significantly affect the ROA.

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Economic Cycles in Argentina: 1875–1990

Journal of Latin American Studies ◽

10.1017/s0022216x06001167 ◽

2006 ◽

Vol 38 (3) ◽

pp. 549-570 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

ISABEL SANZ-VILLARROYA

Keyword(s):

Aggregate Demand ◽

Unit Root Tests ◽

Economic Cycles ◽

Long Run ◽

Economic Forces ◽

Mode Of Operation ◽

Key Factor ◽

Short Run ◽

High Level ◽

Level Of Agreement

This article analyses the short-run periods that can be derived from the GDP per capita series for Argentina between 1875 and 1990, after extracting its segmented long-run trend using time series techniques and unit root tests. It also studies the economic forces which, from the aggregate demand side, might provide an explanation for this behaviour. This mode of operation makes it possible to identify successive cycles more accurately than in previous studies. A high level of agreement is observed between the results of this study and arguments in the literature regarding the causes shaping these short-run periods: the analysis demonstrates that exports were the key factor until 1932 while after this year consumption and investment came to predominate.

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Modelling the Nexus Between Foreign Aid and Economic Growth: A Case of Afghanistan and Egypt

Studies of Applied Economics ◽

10.25115/eea.v39i2.3802 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 39 (2) ◽

Author(s):

Muhammed Ashiq Villanthenkodath ◽

Ubaid Mushtaq

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Foreign Aid ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Trade Openness ◽

Political Stability ◽

Series Data ◽

Long Run ◽

Short Run ◽

Annual Time Series ◽

And Control

This paper tries to explore the existence of a long-run relationship between foreign aid and economic growth by using the data from the two highest foreign aid recipient countries. Using the annual time series data from 1965 to 2017 this study uses several econometric models such as Johansen and Juselius cointegration, Granger causality and vector auto regression to establish the long and short-run relationships among foreign aid inflows and economic growth while also considering financial development and trade openness from both the countries. The empirical results suggest that no long-run relationship exists among foreign aid inflows and economic growth for both the countries. However, unidirectional causality running from foreign aid to economic growth is indicative in both countries. Therefore, the findings in this paper support the adequate need for foreign aid for effective economic growth amid an upright policy environment, related issues of conditionality and political stability. Our results are robust to independent, and control variables and estimation techniques are also on par with robustness.

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