scholarly journals AR (p) para previsão de demanda em uma agroindústria

ForScience ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. e00507
Author(s):  
Álvaro de Aquino Santos ◽  
Marcos Antônio Alves ◽  
Elias Silva De Medeiros ◽  
Igor Neves Nunes ◽  
Rafael João de Melo Miguel Cardoso
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Demand Forecasting ◽  
Evaluation Criteria ◽  
Parametric Model ◽  
Minas Gerais ◽  
Broiler Chicks ◽  
First Order ◽  
Satisfactory Performance ◽  
Historical Series

Os modelos de previsão de séries temporais são ferramentas importantes no apoio ao planejamento da produção e na tomada de decisão de organizações como as agroindústrias. Um dos desafios da agroindústria brasileira de frango, uma das mais importantes do mundo, é prever adequadamente a demanda de seus clientes. Nesse contexto, o objetivo deste estudo foi propor um modelo paramétrico para previsão de demanda baseado nos dados de expedição de pintos da linhagem de corte em uma agroindústria do centro-oeste de Minas Gerais. Diferentes métodos foram avaliados sobre a série histórica de 59 semanas, a fim de identificar o comportamento das expedições semanais e verificar possíveis tendências e sazonalidades. Dados de 56 semanas foram avaliados e os modelos candidatos foram obtidos a partir da análise das autocorrelações das observações. Por meio dos critérios de avaliação BIC e AIC, o modelo Autorregressivo de Primeira Ordem (AR) (1) se mostrou o mais adequado. Para avaliar o poder de predição do modelo AR (1) foi realizada uma comparação entre os valores preditos e observados nas últimas quatro semanas da série. Por meio da análise foi verificado um desempenho satisfatório, uma vez que os valores observados se encontravam dentro do intervalo de 95% de confiança construído por meio do modelo. Palavras-chave: Série temporal. Previsão de demanda. Pintos de corte. Frango. AR (p) for forecasting demanddata in an agroindustry  Abstract Time series forecasting models are important tools in supporting production planning and decision-making of the companies, such as agroindustries. One of the challenges facing Brazilian chicken agribusinesses, one of the most important in the world, is to correctly forecast the demand of its customers. In this context, the aim of this paper was to propose a parametric model for demand forecasting based on the data of dispatch of chicks of the broiler line in an agroindustry in the Midwest of Minas Gerais. Different methods were evaluated over the 59-week historical series in order to identify the behavior of the weekly expedition and to verify possible trends and seasonalities. Data of 56 weeks were evaluated and the candidate models were obtained from the analysis of the autocorrelations of the observations. Through the BIC and AIC evaluation criteria, the First Order Autoregressive model (AR) was the most appropriate one. To assess the predictive accuracy of the AR (1) model, a comparison was made between predicted and observed values in the last four weeks of the time-series. Through this analysis, a satisfactory performance was verified, since the observed values were within the 95% confidence interval constructed through the model. Keywords: Time-series. Demand forecasting. Broiler chicks. Chicken.

scholarly journals Forecasting intermittent and sparse time series: A unified probabilistic framework via deep renewal processes

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (11) ◽  
pp. e0259764
Author(s):  
Ali Caner Türkmen ◽  
Tim Januschowski ◽  
Yuyang Wang ◽  
Ali Taylan Cemgil
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Discrete Time ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Demand Forecasting ◽  
Trivial Extension ◽  
Renewal Processes ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasting ◽  
Unified Framework ◽  
Intermittent Demand

Intermittency are a common and challenging problem in demand forecasting. We introduce a new, unified framework for building probabilistic forecasting models for intermittent demand time series, which incorporates and allows to generalize existing methods in several directions. Our framework is based on extensions of well-established model-based methods to discrete-time renewal processes, which can parsimoniously account for patterns such as aging, clustering and quasi-periodicity in demand arrivals. The connection to discrete-time renewal processes allows not only for a principled extension of Croston-type models, but additionally for a natural inclusion of neural network based models—by replacing exponential smoothing with a recurrent neural network. We also demonstrate that modeling continuous-time demand arrivals, i.e., with a temporal point process, is possible via a trivial extension of our framework. This leads to more flexible modeling in scenarios where data of individual purchase orders are directly available with granular timestamps. Complementing this theoretical advancement, we demonstrate the efficacy of our framework for forecasting practice via an extensive empirical study on standard intermittent demand data sets, in which we report predictive accuracy in a variety of scenarios.

Development of A Pharmaceutical Early Warning Scoring Model for Cardiac Arrest Using Deep Learning: Retrospective Cohort Study (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hsiao-Ko Chang ◽  
Hui-Chih Wang ◽  
Chih-Fen Huang ◽  
Feipei Lai
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Cardiac Arrest ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Vital Signs ◽  
Sliding Window ◽  
Early Warning Score ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Dynamic Time

BACKGROUND In most of Taiwan’s medical institutions, congestion is a serious problem for emergency departments. Due to a lack of beds, patients spend more time in emergency retention zones, which make it difficult to detect cardiac arrest (CA). OBJECTIVE We seek to develop a pharmaceutical early warning model to predict cardiac arrest in emergency departments via drug classification and medical expert suggestion. METHODS We propose a new early warning score model for detecting cardiac arrest via pharmaceutical classification and by using a sliding window; we apply learning-based algorithms to time-series data for a Pharmaceutical Early Warning Scoring Model (PEWSM). By treating pharmaceutical features as a dynamic time-series factor for cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) patients, we increase sensitivity, reduce false alarm rates and mortality, and increase the model’s accuracy. To evaluate the proposed model we use the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). RESULTS Four important findings are as follows: (1) We identify the most important drug predictors: bits, and replenishers and regulators of water and electrolytes. The best AUROC of bits is 85%; that of replenishers and regulators of water and electrolytes is 86%. These two features are the most influential of the drug features in the task. (2) We verify feature selection, in which accounting for drugs improve the accuracy: In Task 1, the best AUROC of vital signs is 77%, and that of all features is 86%. In Task 2, the best AUROC of all features is 85%, which demonstrates that thus accounting for the drugs significantly affects prediction. (3) We use a better model: For traditional machine learning, this study adds a new AI technology: the long short-term memory (LSTM) model with the best time-series accuracy, comparable to the traditional random forest (RF) model; the two AUROC measures are 85%. (4) We determine whether the event can be predicted beforehand: The best classifier is still an RF model, in which the observational starting time is 4 hours before the CPR event. Although the accuracy is impaired, the predictive accuracy still reaches 70%. Therefore, we believe that CPR events can be predicted four hours before the event. CONCLUSIONS This paper uses a sliding window to account for dynamic time-series data consisting of the patient’s vital signs and drug injections. In a comparison with NEWS, we improve predictive accuracy via feature selection, which includes drugs as features. In addition, LSTM yields better performance with time-series data. The proposed PEWSM, which offers 4-hour predictions, is better than the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) in the literature. This also confirms that the doctor’s heuristic rules are consistent with the results found by machine learning algorithms.

Development of A Drug Early Warning System Model for Cardiac Arrest Using Deep Learning: Retrospective Cohort Study (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hsiao-Ko Chang ◽  
Hui-Chih Wang ◽  
Chih-Fen Huang ◽  
Feipei Lai
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Cardiac Arrest ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Vital Signs ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Dynamic Time

BACKGROUND In most of Taiwan’s medical institutions, congestion is a serious problem for emergency departments. Due to a lack of beds, patients spend more time in emergency retention zones, which make it difficult to detect cardiac arrest (CA). OBJECTIVE We seek to develop a Drug Early Warning System Model (DEWSM), it included drug injections and vital signs as this research important features. We use it to predict cardiac arrest in emergency departments via drug classification and medical expert suggestion. METHODS We propose this new model for detecting cardiac arrest via drug classification and by using a sliding window; we apply learning-based algorithms to time-series data for a DEWSM. By treating drug features as a dynamic time-series factor for cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) patients, we increase sensitivity, reduce false alarm rates and mortality, and increase the model’s accuracy. To evaluate the proposed model, we use the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). RESULTS Four important findings are as follows: (1) We identify the most important drug predictors: bits (intravenous therapy), and replenishers and regulators of water and electrolytes (fluid and electrolyte supplement). The best AUROC of bits is 85%, it means the medical expert suggest the drug features: bits, it will affect the vital signs, and then the evaluate this model correctly classified patients with CPR reach 85%; that of replenishers and regulators of water and electrolytes is 86%. These two features are the most influential of the drug features in the task. (2) We verify feature selection, in which accounting for drugs improve the accuracy: In Task 1, the best AUROC of vital signs is 77%, and that of all features is 86%. In Task 2, the best AUROC of all features is 85%, which demonstrates that thus accounting for the drugs significantly affects prediction. (3) We use a better model: For traditional machine learning, this study adds a new AI technology: the long short-term memory (LSTM) model with the best time-series accuracy, comparable to the traditional random forest (RF) model; the two AUROC measures are 85%. It can be seen that the use of new AI technology will achieve better results, currently comparable to the accuracy of traditional common RF, and the LSTM model can be adjusted in the future to obtain better results. (4) We determine whether the event can be predicted beforehand: The best classifier is still an RF model, in which the observational starting time is 4 hours before the CPR event. Although the accuracy is impaired, the predictive accuracy still reaches 70%. Therefore, we believe that CPR events can be predicted four hours before the event. CONCLUSIONS This paper uses a sliding window to account for dynamic time-series data consisting of the patient’s vital signs and drug injections. The National Early Warning Score (NEWS) only focuses on the score of vital signs, and does not include factors related to drug injections. In this study, the experimental results of adding the drug injections are better than only vital signs. In a comparison with NEWS, we improve predictive accuracy via feature selection, which includes drugs as features. In addition, we use traditional machine learning methods and deep learning (using LSTM method as the main processing time series data) as the basis for comparison of this research. The proposed DEWSM, which offers 4-hour predictions, is better than the NEWS in the literature. This also confirms that the doctor’s heuristic rules are consistent with the results found by machine learning algorithms.

scholarly journals Empirical Insights from a Study on Outlier Preserving Value Generalization in Animated Choropleth Maps

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 208
Author(s):  
Christoph Traun ◽  
Manuela Larissa Schreyer ◽  
Gudrun Wallentin
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Empirical Research ◽  
Global Trends ◽  
First Order ◽  
Choropleth Maps ◽  
Temporal Generalization ◽  
Perceptual Limits ◽  
Local Outlier

Time series animation of choropleth maps easily exceeds our perceptual limits. In this empirical research, we investigate the effect of local outlier preserving value generalization of animated choropleth maps on the ability to detect general trends and local deviations thereof. Comparing generalization in space, in time, and in a combination of both dimensions, value smoothing based on a first order spatial neighborhood facilitated the detection of local outliers best, followed by the spatiotemporal and temporal generalization variants. We did not find any evidence that value generalization helps in detecting global trends.

scholarly journals Efficient Graph Collaborative Filtering via Contrastive Learning

Sensors ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (14) ◽  
pp. 4666
Author(s):  
Zhiqiang Pan ◽  
Honghui Chen
Keyword(s):  
Collaborative Filtering ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
Representation Learning ◽  
First Order ◽  
Satisfactory Performance ◽  
Potential Applications ◽  
Benchmark Datasets ◽  
Bayesian Personalized Ranking ◽  
Graph Neural Networks ◽  
Training Efficiency

Collaborative filtering (CF) aims to make recommendations for users by detecting user’s preference from the historical user–item interactions. Existing graph neural networks (GNN) based methods achieve satisfactory performance by exploiting the high-order connectivity between users and items, however they suffer from the poor training efficiency problem and easily introduce bias for information propagation. Moreover, the widely applied Bayesian personalized ranking (BPR) loss is insufficient to provide supervision signals for training due to the extremely sparse observed interactions. To deal with the above issues, we propose the Efficient Graph Collaborative Filtering (EGCF) method. Specifically, EGCF adopts merely one-layer graph convolution to model the collaborative signal for users and items from the first-order neighbors in the user–item interactions. Moreover, we introduce contrastive learning to enhance the representation learning of users and items by deriving the self-supervisions, which is jointly trained with the supervised learning. Extensive experiments are conducted on two benchmark datasets, i.e., Yelp2018 and Amazon-book, and the experimental results demonstrate that EGCF can achieve the state-of-the-art performance in terms of Recall and normalized discounted cumulative gain (NDCG), especially on ranking the target items at right positions. In addition, EGCF shows obvious advantages in the training efficiency compared with the competitive baselines, making it practicable for potential applications.

A Contextual Evaluation of Composite Forecasts of Annual Earnings

2016 ◽  
Vol 19 (03) ◽  
pp. 1650014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pieter T. Elgers ◽  
May H. Lo ◽  
Wenjuan Xie ◽  
Le Emily Xu
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Firm Size ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Relative Accuracy ◽  
Regulation Fair Disclosure ◽  
Fair Disclosure ◽  
Time Periods ◽  
Time Specific ◽  
Annual Earnings ◽  
The Impact

This study addresses the impact of firm- and time-specific attributes on the accuracy of composite forecasts of annual earnings, constructed from time-series, price-based, and analysts' forecasts. The attributes examined include firm size, analysts' coverage, and time periods pre-dating and following the implementation of regulation fair disclosure. Our results indicate that the relative accuracy of the composite forecasts is time-specific. In the pre-regulation fair disclosure period, composite forecasts significantly outperform each of the three individual forecast sources. Moreover, the extent of improvement in accuracy of composite forecasts is significantly higher for the smaller and lightly-covered firms. Collectively, these results suggest that the predictive accuracy of composite forecasts is contextual.

scholarly journals Time Series Analysis of Climatic Variables in Peninsular Spain. Trends and Forecasting Models for Data between 20th and 21st Centuries

Climate ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. 119
Author(s):  
Pitshu Mulomba Mukadi ◽  
Concepción González-García
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Temperature Series ◽  
Climatic Variables ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Agricultural Crops ◽  
Arima Models ◽  
Cover Time ◽  
Pests And Diseases ◽  
Historical Series ◽  
Preliminary Phase

Time series of mean monthly temperature and total monthly precipitation are two of the climatic variables most easily obtained from weather station records. There are many studies analyzing historical series of these variables, particularly in the Spanish territory. In this study, the series of these two variables in 47 stations of the provincial capitals of mainland Spain were analyzed. The series cover time periods from the 1940s to 2013; the studies reviewed in mainland Spain go up to 2008. ARIMA models were used to represent their variation. In the preliminary phase of description and identification of the model, a study to detect possible trends in the series was carried out in an isolated manner. Significant trends were found in 15 of the temperature series, and there were trends in precipitation in only five of them. The results obtained for the trends are discussed with reference to those of other, more detailed studies in the different regions, confirming whether the same trend was maintained over time. With the ARIMA models obtained, 12-month predictions were made by measuring errors with the observed data. More than 50% of the series of both were modeled. Predictions with these models could be useful in different aspects of seasonal job planning, such as wildfires, pests and diseases, and agricultural crops.

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