scholarly journals Do Voters Respond to Cross-Ethnic Campaigning inDivided Societies?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ken Ochieng' Opalo ◽  
Leonardo R. Arriola ◽  
Donghyun Danny Choi ◽  
Matthew Gichohi
Keyword(s):  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Institutional Design ◽  
Political Mobilization ◽  
Presidential Candidate ◽  
Electoral Rules ◽  
Ethnic Mobilization ◽  
Divided Societies ◽  
Intergroup Competition ◽  
Before And After

In order to comply with electoral rules incentivizing cross-ethnic mobilization, candidates in divided societies often campaign in opponents’ strongholds among non-coethnics. In this paper, we show that such cross-ethnic campaign rallies may actually depress outgroup candidates’ support among non-coethnics. We argue that candidates’ holding of campaign rallies in non-coethnic constituencies can inadvertently trigger perceptions of intergroup competition, increase the salience of ethnicity, and depress support for non-coethnic candidates. We leverage a natural experiment that exploits the timing of an unscheduled campaign rally held by a presidential candidate in a non-coethnic county in his opponent’s stronghold during Kenya’s 2017 election. In comparing survey respondents before and after the rally, we find that the candidate’s post-rally favorability significantly decreased among non-coethnic voters, while the proportion of voters identifying in ethnic terms simultaneously increased. These findings have important implications for the efficacy of institutional design to promote cross-ethnic political mobilization in polarized societies.

Constitutional Majoritarianism against Popular “Regulation” in the Federalist

2021 ◽  
pp. 009059172110437
Author(s):  
James Lindley Wilson
Keyword(s):  
Institutional Design ◽  
Constitutional Democracy ◽  
Democratic Deliberation ◽  
Common Life ◽  
Analysis And Evaluation ◽  
Democratic Practice ◽  
The Federalist ◽  
Before And After ◽  
New Form ◽  
Adequate Analysis

In this essay, I make the interpretive claim that we cannot properly understand the Federalist without appreciating the extent to which the papers mount a sustained rejection of extra-constitutional democracy—practices in which people aim to assert authority over the terms of common life in ways that are not sanctioned by existing laws. I survey such practices, which were common in America before and after the Revolution. I argue that there is continuity between Publius’s justification for rejecting extra-constitutional democracy and his justification for his preferred system against constitutional alternatives. Adequate analysis and evaluation of the Federalist’s arguments about faction, representation, and institutional design require attention to the double duty the arguments play against constitutional and extra-constitutional opposition. This interpretive argument supports several analytic and evaluative conclusions. First, we must distinguish a new form of “non-hierarchical dualist” constitutionalism, according to which irregular democratic activity need not be limited to extraordinary “constitutional moments” or revolutions. Second, the politically egalitarian character of procedures depends not on the procedures alone, but how the maintenance of such procedures limits other forms of democratic practice. Third, the argument suggests a novel defense of “uncivil” disobedient politics: one grounded not in contributions to democratic deliberation, but in the entitlements of citizens to direct assertions of authority over common life.

scholarly journals Covid-19: Early evening curfews are not effective and may backfire

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sotiris Vandoros ◽  
Alina Velias ◽  
Sotiris Georganas
Keyword(s):  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Relative Difference ◽  
Relative Increase ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Early Evening ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Clear Identification ◽  
Econometric Approach ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Indoor Spaces

Background: During the COVID-19 pandemic, some countries have introduced early evening curfews. Several studies try measure the effectiveness of such measures across different countries, but clear identification of effects is elusive. Objective: We examined the impact of an early evening curfew on mobility by studying a shift in curfews from 9pm to 6pm in Greece. Data and Methods: We took advantage of a natural experiment in Greece, where curfews shifted from 9pm to 6pm in one Region, but not in another. We followed a difference-in-difference econometric approach, where we compared trends in mobility in groceries and pharmacies as well as residential spaces before and after the introduction of the 6pm curfew, in the two regions. Results: The relative difference in the time spent in groceries and pharmacies between the two regions before and after the intervention, is statistically insignificant [coeff: -9.95; 95%CI -44.358 to 24.458]. The relative increase in time spent in groceries and pharmacies after the 6pm curfew was only 4.625 percentage points [coeff: 4.625; 95%CI 1.412 to 7.838]. Conclusions: We found that the 6pm instead of 9pm curfew in Athens led to a 4.63 percentage point relative increase in time spent at home and had no effect on time spent in groceries and pharmacies. Considering that this was a result of a 18.75% reduction in hours where people were allowed to leave home, it seems that the early evening curfew led to more crowding in indoor spaces; which may facilitate the spread of disease. Lockdowns and other measures are necessary to tackle Covid-19, but it is important to avoid substitution by activities that contribute further to spreading the virus. Interventions should therefore be based on a thorough analysis of human behaviour.

scholarly journals The plight of civic parties in divided societies

2019 ◽  
Vol 41 (1) ◽  
pp. 73-88 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cera Murtagh
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Institutional Design ◽  
Power Sharing ◽  
Empirical Reality ◽  
Divided Societies ◽  
Mediating Role ◽  
Ethnic Parties ◽  
Marginalised Groups ◽  
Governance Models ◽  
The Relationship

Civic political parties in divided societies occupy an ambiguous place in the power-sharing literature. Scholarship tends to focus on ethnic parties and assumes civic actors to be marginal. The empirical reality tells a different story: civic parties have contributed to peace, stability and democracy in some of the world’s most deeply divided places by playing a mediating role, acting as a moderating force and representing otherwise marginalised groups. Drawing from interviews with representatives from civic parties, ethnic parties and civil society in Northern Ireland and Bosnia and Herzegovina, and broader institutional analysis, I argue that civic parties’ survival can be explained by the fact that they meet therein not only with barriers but also critical openings. They adapt to this opportunity structure, with different party types developing under different forms of power-sharing. In illustrating the relationship between governance models and civic parties, this article underlines the importance of post-settlement institutional design.

scholarly journals Walking on Water—A Natural Experiment of a Population Health Intervention to Promote Physical Activity after the Winter Holidays

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (19) ◽  
pp. 3627
Author(s):  
Jonathan McGavock ◽  
Nicole Brunton ◽  
Nika Klaprat ◽  
Anders Swanson ◽  
Dave Pancoe ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Physical Activity ◽  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Experimental Studies ◽  
Annual Household Income ◽  
Convenience Sample ◽  
The Public ◽  
Population Health Intervention ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Urban Trail

Background: Very few experimental studies exist describing the effect of changes to the built environment and opportunities for physical activity (PA). We examined the impact of an urban trail created on a frozen waterway on visitor counts and PA levels. Methods: We studied a natural experiment in Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada that included 374,204 and 237,362 trail users during the 2017/2018 and 2018/2019 winter seasons. The intervention was a 10 km frozen waterway trail lasting 8–10 weeks. The comparator conditions were the time periods immediately before and after the intervention when ~10 kms of land-based trails were accessible to the public. A convenience sample of 466 participants provided directly measured PA while on the frozen waterway. Results: Most trail users were 35 years or older (73%), Caucasian (77%), and had an annual household income >$50,000 (61%). Mean daily trail network visits increased ~four-fold when the frozen waterway was open (median and interquartile range (IQR) = 710 (239–1839) vs. 2897 (1360–5583) visits/day, p < 0.001), compared with when it was closed. Users achieved medians of 3852 steps (IQR: 2574–5496 steps) and 23 min (IQR: 13–37 min) of moderate to vigorous intensity PA (MVPA) per visit, while 37% of users achieved ≥30 min of MVPA. Conclusion: A winter-specific urban trail network on a frozen waterway substantially increased visits to an existing urban trail network and was associated with a meaningful dose of MVPA. Walking on water could nudge populations living in cold climates towards more activity during winter months.

scholarly journals Electoral violence and the legacy of authoritarian rule in Kenya and Zambia

2019 ◽  
Vol 57 (1) ◽  
pp. 111-125 ◽  
Author(s):  
Johan Brosché ◽  
Hanne Fjelde ◽  
Kristine Höglund
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Political Competition ◽  
Political Mobilization ◽  
Authoritarian Rule ◽  
Interethnic Relations ◽  
Ethnic Mobilization ◽  
Electoral Violence ◽  
The Core ◽  
Multiparty Politics

Why do the first multiparty elections after authoritarian rule turn violent in some countries but not in others? This article places legacies from the authoritarian past at the core of an explanation of when democratic openings become associated with electoral violence in multi-ethnic states, and complement existing research focused on the immediate conditions surrounding the elections. We argue that authoritarian rule characterized by more exclusionary multi-ethnic coalitions creates legacies that amplify the risk of violent elections during the shift to multiparty politics. Through competitive and fragmented interethnic relations, exclusionary systems foreclose the forging of cross-ethnic elite coalitions and make hostile narratives a powerful tool for political mobilization. By contrast, regimes with a broad-based ethnic support base cultivate inclusive inter-elite bargaining, enable cross-ethnic coalitions, and reduce incentives for hostile ethnic mobilization, which lower the risk of violent elections. We explore this argument by comparing founding elections in Zambia (1991), which were largely peaceful, and Kenya (1992), with large-scale state-instigated electoral violence along ethnic lines. The analysis suggests that the type of authoritarian rule created political legacies that underpinned political competition and mobilization during the first multiparty elections, and made violence a more viable electoral strategy in Kenya than in Zambia.

scholarly journals Ethnic Entrepreneurs and Political Mobilization: Exploring a Case of Tharu-Pahadi Conflict

2015 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
pp. 191-208
Author(s):  
Ishwari Bhattarai
Keyword(s):  
Cultural Differences ◽  
Cultural Difference ◽  
Qualitative Data ◽  
Political Mobilization ◽  
Electoral Behavior ◽  
The Other ◽  
Leadership Position ◽  
Ethnic Mobilization ◽  
Ethnic Entrepreneurs ◽  
Society Today

Nepalese society today is witnessing an unprecedented sharpening of ethnic boundaries. In the last couple of decades or so, there have been growing instances of inter-ethnic conflict and clashes. The clash among the Tharus and Pahadi (Bahun-Chhetri) communities that took place in the month of May, 2012 in the Nawalparasi district is one such example. Borrowing the conceptual idea from Fredreick Barth (1995) who critically engages with the question of culture, ethnicity, and contemporary nature of ethnic mobilization, this paper seeks to explore how such conflicts are an epiphenomena of tactical moves carried out what he calls as ‘middle echelon politicians’. Through the qualitative data collected with the help of open-ended interviews and couple of other illustrations, this paper argues that, the contemporary character of ethnic mobilizations in some way or the other, are manipulated by ethnic entrepreneurs who politicize cultural differences, ethnic sentiments, and collective backwardness which often result in violent confrontations. Despite the Tharus being diverse and sharply divided in terms of political allegiance and electoral behavior, the leaders or activists use politics of cultural difference, and attempt to mitigate internal differences, to present a consolidated picture of ethnic unity. Through such actions ethnic leaders or activists selectively mobilize ethnic sentiments and symbols in order to motivate members of an ethnic group and also assume leadership position at both local and national levels.

scholarly journals Ethnic Accommodation and Electoral Rules in Ethno-Geographically Segregated Societies: PR Outcomes Under FPTP in Myanmar Elections

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 321-360 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joel Selway
Keyword(s):  
Information Systems ◽  
Geographic Information Systems ◽  
Ethnic Groups ◽  
Geographic Information ◽  
Electoral Rules ◽  
Ethnic Population ◽  
Divided Societies ◽  
Ethnic Parties ◽  
Alternative Vote ◽  
High Level

In this article I explore how the current first-past-the-post (FPTP) rules contributed to the failure of ethnic compromise during the democratic period (1948–1962) in Myanmar by encouraging extremist parties, hardening ethnic divisions, and causing political deadlock, ironically the same charges the centripetal school lays against proportional representation (PR). This puzzle of “PR outcomes” under FPTP is explained using geographic information systems techniques that map the country's 2010 electoral districts onto an ethnic population map. It shows that ethnic party success in the 2010 election closely follows the distribution of ethnic groups in Myanmar and that given the high level of ethno-geographic segregation in Myanmar the representation of ethnic parties would be similar under PR and the alternative vote to the current FPTP. I conclude by discussing Indonesia's electoral rules as a possible solution for Myanmar. The general theoretic contribution is that, although past scholars have generally argued that FPTP is bad for ethnically divided societies, their mechanisms are incorrect for ethno-geographically segregated societies.

scholarly journals Evidence for Designing Health Promoting Pocket Parks

2014 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 149 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karin Kragsig Peschardt ◽  
Ulrika Karlsson Stigsdotter
Keyword(s):  
Noise Level ◽  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Urban Green ◽  
City Area ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Health Promoting ◽  
Health And Well Being

The use of urban green environments has repeatedly been associated with improved health and well-being for people living in cities. This study focuses on the health promoting potential of pocket parks in the dense city area of Copenhagen. A natural experiment was conducted, which evaluated one pocket park, Dantes Plads, before and after a redesign. Six people were interviewed about their perception of the change. First of all, the results show that Dantes Plads is primarily used for ‘rest and restitution’. Furthermore, the interviewees prefer to have the presence of sun, shade and planting in relation to rest and restitution, while varied ‘terrain’ may create fascination thereby providing the opportunity for restoration. ‘Noise level’ is perceived differently from subject to subject, while ‘benches’ as well as ‘visual angels’ should not be oriented directly towards disturbing surroundings. The findings add to existing knowledge on the design of health promoting pocket parks for ‘rest and restitution’ in dense city areas.

scholarly journals Xenophobia before and after the Paris 2015 Attacks. Evidence from a Natural Experiment

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sebastian Jungkunz ◽  
Marc Helbling ◽  
Carsten Schwemmer
Keyword(s):  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Student Survey ◽  
Negative Attitudes ◽  
Policy Responses ◽  
Muslim Immigrants ◽  
German Student ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Migrant Groups ◽  
Do So

In light of ongoing debates that discuss the link between Muslim migration and terrorist attacks in various European cities, this paper investigates how attitudes toward (Muslim) immigrants have been affected by these attacks. We draw on a German student survey conducted immediately before and after the attacks in Paris in November 2015. The experimental vignette design allows us to further differentiate between attitudes toward Syrian migrants from different religious backgrounds. We show that the attitudes towards immigration held by students who identify with conservative parties became more negative after the attacks. Immigrants’ religion also plays an important role depending on whether the issue in question is a social or political one. The attitudes of liberal students are hardly affected. This paper goes beyond existing studies that only measure attitudes in the aftermath of such attacks and focuses on attitudes regarding policy responses to terrorist attacks or attitudes towards immigrants in general. We show that such attacks do not lead to negative attitudes in general; they mostly do so for people who attach great importance to issues of national security. We also see that people differentiate between various migrant groups.

scholarly journals Transitions that Matter? Czechoslovakia’s Break up and Human Stature

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (24) ◽  
pp. 5050
Author(s):  
Joan Costa-Font ◽  
Lucia Kossarova
Keyword(s):  
Structural Change ◽  
Liberal Democracy ◽  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Economic Status ◽  
Soviet Bloc ◽  
Growing Up ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Socio Economic Status ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Break Up

Changes in a population’s average stature are virtuous pointers of wellbeing which are sensitive to improvements in psychosocial environments during childhood. A major structural change that could have altered an environment during childhood is the transition from communist to a liberal democracy, and, more specifically, the meltdown of the Soviet bloc provides for a quasi-natural experiment. This paper examines the trends in heights in the Czech Republic and Slovakia before and after the transition and the subsequent break-up of the Czechoslovakian federation. We find that one additional year of exposure to a liberal democracy while growing up is associated with an increasing population stature of 0.28 cm among Slovaks and 0.15 cm among Czechs. We only find changes in stature among men who are more sensitive to environmental stress, especially at the lower end of the current socio-economic status. Results are robust to alternative datasets and measures of democracy.

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