scholarly journals Growing up in the Third Wave: democratic transitions and support for redistribution

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edward Ngai
Keyword(s):  
Cohort Effect ◽  
Period Effect ◽  
Third Wave ◽  
Growing Up ◽  
Democratic Transitions ◽  
Survey Period ◽  
The Third ◽  
Past Experiences ◽  
Birth Cohort Effect ◽  
Time Invariant

Variation in experiences of democratic transition have durable effects on political attitudes. I find exposure to distributive narratives of democracy during democratic transitions between the ages of 18 and 25 has a durable positive effect on support for redistribution by tying economic redistribution to the idea of democracy. Using survey data from 28 countries that transitioned during the Third Wave (1980-2000), I show that these effects cannot be caused by any global period effect, survey period effect, birth cohort effect, or country-specific time-invariant characteristics. They are also robust to the inclusion of past experiences of the economy and welfare state, individual controls, and a range of modeling strategies. Using a different source of variation in democratic transitions from 2001-2020, I show that transitions cause attitudes and not the other way around. I argue that many failures of democracy in Third Wave countries are caused by the nature of the transitions from which they originated: distributive transitions produced democratic collective imaginaries irreconcilable with the amount of democratic redistribution that was forthcoming.

scholarly journals EAST ASIAN PATHWAYS TOWARD DEMOCRACY: A QUALITATIVE COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF “THE THIRD WAVE”

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 239-260 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shinan Hao ◽  
Qiqi Gao
Keyword(s):  
Comparative Analysis ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Qualitative Comparative Analysis ◽  
Authoritarian Regime ◽  
Third Wave ◽  
Mass Mobilization ◽  
Democratic Transitions ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
The Third ◽  
Joint Forces

AbstractWhat drove the East Asian tide of democratization during the “Third Wave?” Instead of focusing on a single-factor explanation, we perform qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) on fourteen cases in the region of East Asia from 1980 to 2000 and find three parallel pathways: (1) overthrow model, which features the positive effects of mass mobilization against authoritarianism under a deinstitutionalized authoritarian regime; (2) urban pressure model that works under an institutionalized authoritarian regime; and (3) inside-out model, in which democratization is triggered by the joint forces of domestic and international conditions under both types of regimes. These results demonstrate that the authoritarianstatus quo anteis an important determinant of democratic transitions.

Introduction

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephan Haggard ◽  
Robert R. Kaufman
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Research Method ◽  
The Political ◽  
Third Wave ◽  
Structural Factors ◽  
Mass Mobilization ◽  
Democratic Transitions ◽  
Political Factors ◽  
The Third ◽  
Democratic Rule

This book examines regime change during the so-called Third Wave by focusing on transitions to and from democratic rule, taking into account factors such as the nature of authoritarian and democratic institutions, regime performance, and capacities for collective action on the part of civil society. Drawing on seventy-eight discrete democratic transitions and twenty-five cases of reversion to autocracy that occurred between 1980 and 2008 as coded in two widely used datasets, the book considers how structural factors affect transitions to and reversions from democracy. It shows that democratization driven by mass mobilization appears to hinge on political factors: how exclusionary or co-optive authoritarian regimes are and the extent to which publics are capable of mobilizing grievances into the political arena. This introduction defines core terms and justifies the book's focus on the Third Wave. It also previews the book's empirical findings and concludes with a note on the research method used.

Gastric Cancer Mortality Trends in Tuscany, Italy, 1971–2004

2008 ◽  
Vol 94 (6) ◽  
pp. 787-792 ◽  
Author(s):  
Giuseppe Gorini ◽  
Lucia Giovannetti ◽  
Giovanna Masala ◽  
Elisabetta Chellini ◽  
Andrea Martini ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Gastric Cancer ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Birth Cohort ◽  
Cancer Mortality ◽  
Cohort Effect ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Period Effect ◽  
Mortality Trends ◽  
Risk Areas ◽  
Birth Cohort Effect

Aims, Background, and Methods In Tuscany, Italy, gastric cancer mortality has been decreasing since 1950, although with relevant geographical variability across the region. In Eastern Tuscan areas close to the mountains (high risk areas), gastric cancer mortality has been and is still significantly higher than that recorded in Western coastal areas and in the city of Florence (low risk areas). High-risk areas also showed higher Helicobacter pylori seroprevalence. Aim of this paper is to study gastric cancer mortality trends in high and low-risk areas, during the period 1971–2004, using age-period-cohort models. Results In high-risk areas, gastric cancer mortality rates declined from 61.4 per 100,000 in 1971–74 to 19.8 in 2000–2004 and in low-risk areas from 34.9 to 9.8. Mortality decline in high-risk areas was mainly attributable to a birth cohort effect, whereas in low-risk areas it was due either to a birth cohort effect or a period effect. In low- and high-risk areas, birth-cohort risks of dying decreased over subsequent generations, except for the birth cohorts born around the second world war. Conclusions Gastric cancer mortality in areas with higher H. pylori seroprevalence in Tuscany (high-risk areas) showed a predominant decline by birth cohort, in particular for younger generations, possibly due to the decrease of the infection for improvement of living conditions.

scholarly journals Age, Period, and Cohort Effects on Suicide Mortality in South Korea, 1992–2015

2018 ◽  
Vol 15 (8) ◽  
pp. 1580 ◽  
Author(s):  
Soonjoo Park ◽  
Yeong-Jun Song ◽  
Jinseob Kim ◽  
Myung Ki ◽  
Ji-Yeon Shin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cohort Effect ◽  
Identification Problem ◽  
Vulnerable Groups ◽  
Suicide Mortality ◽  
Period Effect ◽  
Annual Average ◽  
Young Females ◽  
Males And Females ◽  
Older Subjects ◽  
Birth Cohort Effect

Although the effects of age, period, and cohort (APC) on suicide are important, previous work in this area may have been invalid because of an identification problem. We analyzed these effects under three different scenarios to identify vulnerable groups and thus overcame the identification problem. We extracted the annual numbers of suicides from the National Death Register of Korea (1992–2015) and estimated the APC effects. The annual average suicide rates in 1992–2015 were 31.5 and 14.7 per 100,000 males and females, respectively. The APC effects on suicide were similar in both sexes. The age effect was clearly higher in older subjects, in contrast to the minimal changes apparent during earlier adulthood. The birth cohort effect showed an inverted U shape; a higher cohort effect was evident in females born in the early 1980s when period drift was larger than 3.7%/year. Period effect increased sharply during the early 1990s and 2000s. We found that elderly and young females may be at a particularly high risk of suicide in Korea.

Modeling Democratic Transitions

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Terence Teo
Keyword(s):  
Collective Action ◽  
Political Mobilization ◽  
Third Wave ◽  
Mass Mobilization ◽  
Democratic Transitions ◽  
The Third ◽  
Transitions To Democracy ◽  
Distributive Conflict ◽  
Mass Protest ◽  
Prairie Fire

This chapter examines why some democratic transitions were driven by mass mobilization, while others appeared to be predominantly elite processes, with a greater role for international influences as well. It first outlines core theoretical arguments about the way authoritarian regimes and the capacity for collective action influence transitions to democracy before discussing some statistical modeling of transitions during the Third Wave. Contrary to “prairie fire” models of political mobilization, this chapter shows that enduring social organizations play a major role in fomenting the mass protest that drives distributive conflict transitions, particularly unions and ethnonationalist organizations. Moreover, it provides evidence that these factors do not give us purchase in explaining elite-led transitions.

Inequality and Transitions to Democracy

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephan Haggard ◽  
Robert R. Kaufman
Keyword(s):  
Rational Choice ◽  
Regime Change ◽  
Third Wave ◽  
Sample Period ◽  
Democratic Transitions ◽  
The Third ◽  
Transitions To Democracy ◽  
Distributive Conflict ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
The Universe

This chapter explores the relationship between inequality, distributive conflict, and regime change during the Third Wave of democratic transitions (1980–2008). It first provides an overview of the theory and existing quantitative findings on the link between inequality and democratic transitions before discussing the results obtained by using an empirical approach that selects all transitions in the relevant sample period identified in the Polity and CGV datasets. It shows that about half of the transitions analyzed are the result of the mobilized de facto power envisioned by both the sociological and rational choice distributive conflict theories. Cases of democratization driven by distributive conflict constituted only slightly more than half of the universe of transitions during the period, and neither transitions in general nor those driven by distributive conflict were correlated with economic inequality. The emergence of democracy in the advanced industrial states stemmed in part from fundamental changes in class structures.

The incidence of chronic lymphocytic leukemia in Taiwan, 1986-2005: a distinct increasing trend with birth-cohort effect

Blood ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 116 (22) ◽  
pp. 4430-4435 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shang-Ju Wu ◽  
Shang-Yi Huang ◽  
Chien-Ting Lin ◽  
Yu-Jr Lin ◽  
Chee-Jen Chang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia ◽  
Birth Cohort ◽  
Cohort Effect ◽  
Lymphocytic Leukemia ◽  
Period Effect ◽  
Incidence Trend ◽  
Incidence Trends ◽  
Caucasian Americans ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Birth Cohort Effect

The incidence of chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) in Taiwan is markedly lower than that in Western countries, but we have seen a drastically increasing trend. We explored this distinct incidence trend of CLL for Taiwanese. The epidemiologic data of CLL for Taiwanese and Caucasian Americans during 1986 to 2005 were obtained from the Taiwan National Cancer Registry and Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program, respectively. The individual effects of time period and birth cohort on the incidence trends were analyzed using an age-period-cohort model. Although there was a weak period effect corresponding to the increased applications of immunophenotyping in 1991 to 1995 in Taiwan, evidences suggested that the age-adjusted incidence rate of CLL for Taiwanese was continuously increasing during the 20-year period while that for Caucasian Americans remained steady. In addition, a much stronger birth-cohort effect was identified for Taiwanese but not for Caucasian Americans. This effect corresponded to the westernization of lifestyle in Taiwan since 1960. We conclude that, in addition to the ethnic difference of incidence, there is distinct increasing incidence trend of CLL in Taiwan. The strong birth-cohort effect underlying this increasing trend indicates that lifestyles and environmental factors may play a role in the development of CLL for Taiwanese.

Conclusion

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephan Haggard ◽  
Robert R. Kaufman
Keyword(s):  
Third Wave ◽  
Political Rights ◽  
Democratic Transitions ◽  
Regime Changes ◽  
The Third ◽  
The World ◽  
Development Institutions ◽  
Democratic Rule ◽  
Distributive Conflict ◽  
The Impact

This book has examined prevalent structural approaches to democratization, including modernization and distributive conflict theories, by testing them against the experience of the Third Wave. It has shown that the democratic transitions during the period marked a fundamental expansion of opportunities for people around the world to exercise political rights and hold their leaders accountable. However, the regime changes of those decades also included instances of reversion to autocracy and increasing evidence of the resilience of authoritarian rule. This conclusion summarizes the book's findings and considers their relevance for the period since 2008, focusing in particular on the impact of factors such as inequality, economic development, institutions, collective action, and distributive conflicts on transitions to and from democratic rule. It also revisits the definitions of democracy and democratization as spelled out in the book.

Democratic Transitions in the Late Twentieth Century

2019 ◽  
pp. 334-347
Author(s):  
Peter Thiery
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Arab World ◽  
Third Wave ◽  
Southern Europe ◽  
Democratic Transitions ◽  
The Third ◽  
Late Twentieth ◽  
The Arab Spring ◽  
Late Twentieth Century ◽  
Relevant Factors

This chapter provides an overview of the latest democratization thrust, which had already ebbed away by the mid-2000s, and which Samuel Huntington describes as the ‘third wave’ of democratization. This wave began in the 1970s in Southern Europe (Portugal, Greece, Spain) and spread via Latin America to Asia, Eastern Europe, and Africa; only the Arab world remained largely resistant to democratization efforts until the ‘Arab Spring’. The different (and changing) global and international environments, different currents, the course, and the results of this wave of democratization at both global and regional levels are examined. Finally, the explanatory approaches and the relevant factors of these democratization processes are briefly outlined.

scholarly journals Gender differential secular trend in lifetime smoking prevalence among adolescents: an age-period-cohort analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jun Hyun Hwang ◽  
Soon-Woo Park
Keyword(s):  
Smoking Prevalence ◽  
Secular Trend ◽  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Cohort Effect ◽  
Age Effect ◽  
Period Effect ◽  
Survey Period ◽  
Cohort Groups ◽  
Gender Differential

Abstract Background There has been a gender difference in adolescents’ lifetime smoking prevalence trends over the last 10 years. This study aimed to explain the gender differential secular trend in adolescents’ lifetime smoking prevalence using age-period-cohort (APC) analysis and suggests possible causes for this trend, including Korean tobacco control policies during the last 10 years. Methods We utilized the 2006–2017 Korea Youth Risk Behavior Web-based Survey enrolling grades 7 to 12. Using year of survey and year of entry into middle school, we classified 859,814 students who had ever smoked into 6 age groups, 12 periods, and 17 school admission cohorts. Using APC analysis with the intrinsic estimator method, the effects of age, period, and school admission cohort on lifetime smoking prevalence were analyzed according to gender. Results Overall, there was a similar tendency of all the three effects on lifetime smoking prevalence between genders: an increasing age effect with grade, negative period effect with survey period, and similar pattern of school admission cohort groups. However, compared to boys, girls experienced reduction in the increasing age effect in the 12th grade, consistent and steeper decreasing trend in the period effect from 2006 to 2016, and shorter and lower school admission cohort effect. Conclusions Gender differential response to chronological changes in lifetime smoking prevalence was measured by the APC effect, which affected the gender differential secular trend in lifetime smoking prevalence. Therefore, considering the APC effect could help us understand the trend in smoking rates, as well as the contextual factors that affect it.

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