scholarly journals Early evidence that social distancing and public health interventions flatten the COVID-19 curve in Italy

Author(s):  
Valentina Rotondi ◽  
Liliana Andriano ◽  
Jennifer Beam Dowd ◽  
Melinda C. Mills

With the world experiencing one of the largest pandemics in one-hundred years, governments and policymakers are looking for scientific evidence to introduce rapid and effective policies. Here we provide evidence from two provinces in Italy with comparable early infection rates but different timing of mitigating policy measures. Lodi prohibited movement on February 23, 2020 and Bergamo 2 weeks later on March 8, before the entire lockdown of Italy on March 11. This comparison provides early evidence that rapid restriction of movement and social distancing measures may slow the transmission of the virus and “flatten the curve”, ultimately reducing pressure on health care systems


2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 171-172
Author(s):  
Balasubramanian Venkatesh ◽  
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To the Editor: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has resulted in about 2 million infections and more than 100 000 deaths worldwide to date. It has also placed an unprecedented demand on health care systems around the world and, in some countries, the surges in infection rates have overwhelmed the capacity of health care services. The admission rates to intensive care units (ICUs) — as a proportion of patients with confirmed infection — have ranged from a little over 1% in Australia to 5% in China to 16% in Italy. Death rates have also varied from less than 0.5% in Australia to as high as 10% in some countries. These rates are also influenced by the testing criteria for infection, which differ in each country.



2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas J. Barrett ◽  
Karen C. Patterson ◽  
Timothy M. James ◽  
Peter Krüger

AbstractAs we enter a chronic phase of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, with uncontrolled infection rates in many places, relative regional susceptibilities are a critical unknown for policy planning. Tests for SARS-CoV-2 infection or antibodies are indicative but unreliable measures of exposure. Here instead, for four highly-affected countries, we determine population susceptibilities by directly comparing country-wide observed epidemic dynamics data with that of their main metropolitan regions. We find significant susceptibility reductions in the metropolitan regions as a result of earlier seeding, with a relatively longer phase of exponential growth before the introduction of public health interventions. During the post-growth phase, the lower susceptibility of these regions contributed to the decline in cases, independent of intervention effects. Forward projections indicate that non-metropolitan regions will be more affected during recurrent epidemic waves compared with the initially heavier-hit metropolitan regions. Our findings have consequences for disease forecasts and resource utilisation.



SAGE Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 215824402110030
Author(s):  
Anita Lavorgna ◽  
Leslie Carr

Despite the consensus in the medical discipline that certain treatments lack scientific evidence and are worthless if not potentially dangerous, the promotion and selling of fake cures advertised as safe and effective has long plagued health care systems, praying on vulnerable patients and their loved ones. The web and social media are now playing a fundamental role in the propagation of non-science-based treatments and fraudulent medical claims, and in the rise of false health and lifestyle experts. This study combines criminological and computer science expertise to explore and critically analyze the Twitter presence of providers of non-science-based anticancer treatments and their active supporters in the English-speaking online community to investigate their structural relationships and to analyze the characteristics of the most popular actors. The features of the social network observed indicate that there is not a stable community of promoters and supporters of non-science-based medical treatments in the Twittersphere, suggesting the lack of a defined subculture and the presence of transient collectives rather than identifiable groups. Nonetheless, it is possible to observe dynamic conversational networks clustering around popular actors, tweets, and themes, prompting avenues for further research.



2017 ◽  
Vol 127 (1) ◽  
pp. 37-40
Author(s):  
Krzysztof Włoch ◽  
Janusz Jaroszyński ◽  
Ewa Warchoł-Sławińska ◽  
Anna Jurek ◽  
Bartłomiej Drop ◽  
...  

Abstract Community System of Social Support is the basis of modern health care systems not only in Poland but all over the world in the prophylaxis-treatment-rehabilitation procedure. In Poland, family doctors, commune councils and territorial self-governments are involved in it. Family doctors perform a substantial function, whereas commune councils and territorial self-governments an administrative one. The principle of the system work is evaluation of its benefits. Its aim is the reduction of the number of patients who abuse alcohol and those who abuse alcohol despite treatment.



2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robin Qiu

<p>This is a short article, focusing on promoting more study on SEIR modeling by leveraging rich data and machine learning. We believe that this is extremely critical as many regions at the country or state/provincial levels have been struggling with their public health intervention policies on fighting the COVID-19 pandemic. Some recent published papers on mitigation measures show promising SEIR modeling results, which could shred the light for other policymakers at different community levels. We present our perspective on this research direction. Hopefully, we can stimulate more studies and help the world win this “war” against the invisible enemy “coronavirus” sooner rather than later. </p>



2019 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Cássia Rita Pereira da Veiga ◽  
Claudimar Pereira da Veiga ◽  
Ana Paula Drummond-Lage ◽  
Alberto Julius Alves Wainstein ◽  
Andreia Cristina de Melo

PURPOSE New scientific evidence has led to modifications in the clinical practice of handling melanoma. In health care systems, there is currently a wide variety of clinical procedures to treat cancer, and the various routes have different effects on the survival of patients with cancer. Thus, this article aimed to evaluate the journey of patients with melanoma in the public and private health care systems in Brazil from the viewpoint of different medical professionals involved in the diagnosis and treatment of the disease. The study also considers the resources used for the complete delivery cycle of health care at different stages of the evolution of melanoma. METHODS We conducted a behavioral study by applying a questionnaire to a group of medical professionals. A nonprobabilistic sampling method for convenience was used, justified by the heterogeneous national incidence and the limited availability of medical professionals who diagnose and treat melanoma. RESULTS The questionnaire was answered by 138 doctors, including doctors from the Brazilian states with the highest concentration of medical specialists and regions with a higher melanoma incidence. The results of this study have the potential to enrich our understanding of the reality of Brazilian health care systems and, at the same time, allow us to discuss the multiple ways in which professionals from diverse specialist fields understand and explain decision making in health care. CONCLUSION Health care decision making is complex and, among other factors, depends on the diversity of available health resources and the knowledge of which treatments provide the greatest benefit to patients and greatest value to the system as a whole. This work can inform debates and reflection that are applicable not only in Brazil, but also in various other countries with similar realities.



2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (8) ◽  
pp. 467-482 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eva Segelov ◽  
Craig Underhill ◽  
Hans Prenen ◽  
Christos Karapetis ◽  
Christopher Jackson ◽  
...  

Cancer has become a prevalent disease, affecting millions of new patients globally each year. The COVID-19 pandemic is having far-reaching impacts around the world, causing substantial disruptions to health and health care systems that are likely to last for a prolonged period. Early data have suggested that having cancer is a significant risk factor for mortality from severe COVID-19. A diverse group of medical oncologists met to formulate detailed practical advice on systemic anticancer treatments during this crisis. In the context of broad principles, issues including risks of treatment, principles of prioritizing resources, treatment of elderly patients, and psychosocial impact are discussed. Detailed treatment advice and options are given at a tumor stream level. We must maintain care for patients with cancer as best we can and recognize that COVID-19 poses a significant competing risk for death that changes conventional treatment paradigms.



2019 ◽  
Vol 78 (3) ◽  
pp. 259-261 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Bernadette Moore ◽  
Christine Boesch

Currently the world is facing an incredibly costly epidemic of obesity. Almost two-thirds of UK adults are either overweight or obese with estimated financial costs to the UK economy alone of £27 billion per year. While fundamentally obesity is a disorder of energy balance, several decades of research has demonstrated that maintaining energy balance is much more complex than the ‘energy in equals energy out’ equation that was once touted. The purpose of the 2018 Nutrition Society Summer Conference, ‘Getting energy balance right’ was to provide insight into the numerous factors influencing energy balance, considering varying needs across the lifespan, while highlighting advances and gaps in knowledge. Papers presented in this issue illustrate the wide range of factors involved in maintaining energy balance, including: epigenetics, the gut microbiome, physical activity and dietary factors including sugar. Given the complexity of energy balance, systems approaches were highlighted as useful for both understanding metabolism and pathophysiology, and for understanding how public health interventions to treat and prevent obesity should be implemented. The meeting concluded that numerous stakeholders, from individuals, to schools, industry and government, have roles to play in fostering a positive food environment that facilitates the maintenance of energy balance throughout the lifespan.



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