scholarly journals Modelling Consensus Emergence With Nonlinear Dynamics

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yvette Baurne ◽  
Frédéric Delmar ◽  
Jonas Wallin

The study of emergent, bottom-up, processes has long been of interest within organizational and group research. Emergent processes refer to how dynamic interactions among lower-level units (e.g. individuals) over time form a new, shared, construct or phenomena at a higher level (e.g. work group). To properly study emergence of shared constructs one needs models, and data, that both take into account variability across individuals and groups (multilevel), and variability over time (longitudinal). This article makes three contribution to the modelling and theory of of consensus emergence. First, we formulate two separate patterns of consensus emergence; homogeneous and heterogeneous. Homogeneous consensus emergence is characterized by gradual and almost deterministic adjustments of the individual trajectories, whereas heterogeneous consensus emergence show more randomly oscillating trajectories towards consensus. Second, we introduce a model-invariant statistic that measures the strength of the consensus; and allows for comparisons between different models and patterns of consensus emergence. Third, we show how Gaussian Processes can be used to further extend the consensus emergence models, allowing them to capture nonlinear dynamics, on both individual and group level, in emergent processes. Using an established data set, we show that conclusions on the pattern of consensus emergence can change depending on whether the nonlinear group mean change over time is adequately modelled or not. Thus it is crucial to correctly capture the group dynamics to properly understand the consensus emergence.

Author(s):  
D. E. Becker

An efficient, robust, and widely-applicable technique is presented for computational synthesis of high-resolution, wide-area images of a specimen from a series of overlapping partial views. This technique can also be used to combine the results of various forms of image analysis, such as segmentation, automated cell counting, deblurring, and neuron tracing, to generate representations that are equivalent to processing the large wide-area image, rather than the individual partial views. This can be a first step towards quantitation of the higher-level tissue architecture. The computational approach overcomes mechanical limitations, such as hysterisis and backlash, of microscope stages. It also automates a procedure that is currently done manually. One application is the high-resolution visualization and/or quantitation of large batches of specimens that are much wider than the field of view of the microscope.The automated montage synthesis begins by computing a concise set of landmark points for each partial view. The type of landmarks used can vary greatly depending on the images of interest. In many cases, image analysis performed on each data set can provide useful landmarks. Even when no such “natural” landmarks are available, image processing can often provide useful landmarks.


1999 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 205-218 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Magnusson

A description of two cases from my time as a school psychologist in the middle of the 1950s forms the background to the following question: Has anything important happened since then in psychological research to help us to a better understanding of how and why individuals think, feel, act, and react as they do in real life and how they develop over time? The studies serve as a background for some general propositions about the nature of the phenomena that concerns us in developmental research, for a summary description of the developments in psychological research over the last 40 years as I see them, and for some suggestions about future directions.


2013 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 151-156 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Kozma ◽  
E. Molnár ◽  
K. Czimre ◽  
J. Pénzes

Abstract In our days, energy issues belong to the most important problems facing the Earth and the solution may be expected partly from decreasing the amount of the energy used and partly from the increased utilisation of renewable energy resources. A substantial part of energy consumption is related to buildings and includes, inter alia, the use for cooling/heating, lighting and cooking purposes. In the view of the above, special attention has been paid to minimising the energy consumption of buildings since the late 1980s. Within the framework of that, the passive house was created, a building in which the thermal comfort can be achieved solely by postheating or postcooling of the fresh air mass without a need for recirculated air. The aim of the paper is to study the changes in the construction of passive houses over time. In addition, the differences between the geographical locations and the observable peculiarities with regard to the individual building types are also presented.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher James Hopwood ◽  
Ted Schwaba ◽  
Wiebke Bleidorn

Personal concerns about climate change and the environment are a powerful motivator of sustainable behavior. People’s level of concern varies as a function of a variety of social and individual factors. Using data from 58,748 participants from a nationally representative German sample, we tested preregistered hypotheses about factors that impact concerns about the environment over time. We found that environmental concerns increased modestly from 2009-2017 in the German population. However, individuals in middle adulthood tended to be more concerned and showed more consistent increases in concern over time than younger or older people. Consistent with previous research, Big Five personality traits were correlated with environmental concerns. We present novel evidence that increases in concern were related to increases in the personality traits neuroticism and openness to experience. Indeed, changes in openness explained roughly 50% of the variance in changes in environmental concerns. These findings highlight the importance of understanding the individual level factors associated with changes in environmental concerns over time, towards the promotion of more sustainable behavior at the individual level.


2020 ◽  

BACKGROUND: This paper deals with territorial distribution of the alcohol and drug addictions mortality at a level of the districts of the Slovak Republic. AIM: The aim of the paper is to explore the relations within the administrative territorial division of the Slovak Republic, that is, between the individual districts and hence, to reveal possibly hidden relation in alcohol and drug mortality. METHODS: The analysis is divided and executed into the two fragments – one belongs to the female sex, the other one belongs to the male sex. The standardised mortality rate is computed according to a sequence of the mathematical relations. The Euclidean distance is employed to compute the similarity within each pair of a whole data set. The cluster analysis examines is performed. The clusters are created by means of the mutual distances of the districts. The data is collected from the database of the Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic for all the districts of the Slovak Republic. The covered time span begins in the year 1996 and ends in the year 2015. RESULTS: The most substantial point is that the Slovak Republic possesses the regional disparities in a field of mortality expressed by the standardised mortality rate computed particularly for the diagnoses assigned to the alcohol and drug addictions at a considerably high level. However, the female sex and the male sex have the different outcome. The Bratislava III District keeps absolutely the most extreme position. It forms an own cluster for the both sexes too. The Topoľčany District bears a similar extreme position from a point of view of the male sex. All the Bratislava districts keep their mutual notable dissimilarity. Contrariwise, evaluation of a development of the regional disparities among the districts looks like notably heterogeneously. CONCLUSIONS: There are considerable regional discrepancies throughout the districts of the Slovak Republic. Hence, it is necessary to create a common platform how to proceed with the solution of this issue.


2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-27
Author(s):  
A. Khalemsky ◽  
R. Gelbard

In dynamic and big data environments the visualization of a segmentation process over time often does not enable the user to simultaneously track entire pieces. The key points are sometimes incomparable, and the user is limited to a static visual presentation of a certain point. The proposed visualization concept, called ExpanDrogram, is designed to support dynamic classifiers that run in a big data environment subject to changes in data characteristics. It offers a wide range of features that seek to maximize the customization of a segmentation problem. The main goal of the ExpanDrogram visualization is to improve comprehensiveness by combining both the individual and segment levels, illustrating the dynamics of the segmentation process over time, providing “version control” that enables the user to observe the history of changes, and more. The method is illustrated using different datasets, with which we demonstrate multiple segmentation parameters, as well as multiple display layers, to highlight points such as new trend detection, outlier detection, tracking changes in original segments, and zoom in/out for more/less detail. The datasets vary in size from a small one to one of more than 12 million records.


Nutrients ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 489
Author(s):  
Emilie Croisier ◽  
Jaimee Hughes ◽  
Stephanie Duncombe ◽  
Sara Grafenauer

Breakfast cereal improves overall diet quality yet is under constant scrutiny with assertions that the category has not improved over time. This study aimed to comprehensively analyse the category of breakfast cereals, the nutritional values, and health claims across eight distinct sub-categories at four time points (2013, 2015, 2018, and 2020). An audit of products from four major supermarkets in metropolitan Sydney (Aldi, Coles, IGA, and Woolworths) collected ingredient lists, nutrition information, claims and Health Star Rating (HSR) for biscuits and bites; brans; bubbles, puffs, and flakes; granola and clusters; hot cereal flavoured; hot cereal plain; muesli; breakfast biscuits. The median (IQR) were calculated for energy, protein, fat, saturated fat, carbohydrate, sugars, dietary fibre, and sodium for comparisons over time points by nutrient. Data from 2013 was compared with 2020 (by sub-category and then for a sub-section of common products available at each time point). Product numbers between 2013 (n = 283) and 2020 (n = 543) almost doubled, led by granola and clusters. Whole grain cereals ≥ 8 g/serve made up 67% of products (↑114%). While there were positive changes in nutrient composition over time within the full data set, the most notable changes were in the nutrition composition of cereals marketed as the same product in both years (n = 134); with decreases in mean carbohydrate (2%), sugar (10%) and sodium (16%) (p < 0.000), while protein and total fat increased significantly (p = 0.036; p = 0.021). Claims regarding Dietary Fibre and Whole Grain doubled since 2013. Analysis of sub-categories of breakfast cereal assisted in identifying some changes over time, but products common to both timeframes provided a clearer analysis of change within the breakfast category, following introduction of HSR. Whole grain products were lower in the two target nutrients, sodium and sugars, and well-chosen products represent a better choice within this category.


2012 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 236-257 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaap Spreeuw ◽  
Iqbal Owadally

AbstractWe analyze the mortality of couples by fitting a multiple state model to a large insurance data set. We find evidence that mortality rates increase after the death of a partner and, in addition, that this phenomenon diminishes over time. This is popularly known as a “broken-heart” effect and we find that it affects widowers more than widows. Remaining lifetimes of joint lives therefore exhibit short-term dependence. We carry out numerical work involving the pricing and valuation of typical contingent assurance contracts and of a joint life and survivor annuity. If insurers ignore dependence, or mis-specify it as long-term dependence, then significant mis-pricing and inappropriate provisioning can result. Detailed numerical results are presented.


2006 ◽  
Vol 67 (3) ◽  
pp. 230-239 ◽  
Author(s):  
John M. Budd

Concerns about higher education abound, and these include concerns about productivity. The present study extends two previous examinations of faculty publishing productivity covering the years 1991 to 1993 and 1995 to 1997. Both members of ARL and a group of institutions included in ACRL’s data set are included. For both groups there are some increases in mean total numbers of publications, although the rate of increase has decreased since the second time period. Per capita rates of publication demonstrate an even flatter pattern. In recent years, there have been some changes in the dynamics of universities’ faculties; there are more part-time faculty and more faculty who are not on the tenure track. These factors, coupled with the publishing data, point to activities that all academic librarians should be aware of.


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