scholarly journals Bayesian time-series analyses reveal a complex impact of climate change on Classic Maya conflict

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
William Carleton ◽  
Dave Campbell ◽  
Mark Collard
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Classic Maya ◽  
Classic Period ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Late Classic ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Increasing Temperature ◽  
Bayesian Time Series ◽  
The Impact

Researchers disagree about the impact of climate change on conflict among the Maya during the Classic period (ca. 250-900 CE). Some contend that increasing aridity exacerbated conflict, while others have found that increasing temperature ramped up conflict. Here, we report a study in which we sought to resolve this disagreement. We collated annually-resolved conflict and climate data, and then created a Bayesian time-series model for analysing count-based prehistoric and historic data. We carried out three analyses, one covering more or less the whole of the Classic Period (292-900 CE), one focused on the Early Classic (292-600 CE), and one that concentrated on the Late Classic (600-900 CE). Our analyses indicated that climate change likely did impact Classic Maya conflict levels, but our results differed from those of previous studies in two important ways. First, we found that the impact of climate change is only evident during the Late Classic. Second, we found that while increasing summer temperature exacerbated conflict, increasing aridity suppressed it. Thus, our study offers a new, more complex perspective on Classic Maya climate-conflict dynamics. It also has implications for our understanding of other aspects of Classic Maya history and for the debate about the likely impact of the current bout of climate change on conflict levels.

scholarly journals Rainfall, temperature, and Classic Maya conflict: A comparison of hypotheses using Bayesian time-series analysis

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (7) ◽  
pp. e0253043
Author(s):  
Mark Collard ◽  
W. Christopher Carleton ◽  
David A. Campbell
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Classic Maya ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Rainfall Variation ◽  
Times Series ◽  
Summer Temperatures ◽  
Bayesian Time Series ◽  
The Impact

Studies published over the last decade have reached contrasting conclusions regarding the impact of climate change on conflict among the Classic Maya (ca. 250-900 CE). Some researchers have argued that rainfall declines exacerbated conflict in this civilisation. However, other researchers have found that the relevant climate variable was increasing summer temperatures and not decreasing rainfall. The goal of the study reported here was to test between these two hypotheses. To do so, we collated annually-resolved conflict and climate data, and then subjected them to a recently developed Bayesian method for analysing count-based times-series. The results indicated that increasing summer temperature exacerbated conflict while annual rainfall variation had no effect. This finding not only has important implications for our understanding of conflict in the Maya region during the Classic Period. It also contributes to the ongoing discussion about the likely impact of contemporary climate change on conflict levels. Specifically, when our finding is placed alongside the results of other studies that have examined temperature and conflict over the long term, it is clear that the impact of climate change on conflict is context dependent.

scholarly journals The impact of climate change on fish infectious diseases (a review)

2020 ◽  
pp. 78-110
Author(s):  
Yu. Rud ◽  
◽  
O. Zaloilo ◽  
L. Buchatsky ◽  
I. Hrytsyniak ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Fish Farms ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Key Words Climate Change ◽  
Temperature Climate ◽  
Increasing Temperature ◽  
The Impact

Purpose. As the climate change impacts freshwater and marine ecosystems, and rising ocean temperatures and acidification continue to this moment, our aim was to analyze the literature and summarize information on the development of fish infectious diseases in the light of global warming. Findings. Even a slight increase in temperature affects the life cycle, physiology, behavior, distribution and structure of populations of aquatic bioresources, especially fish. Recent studies show that some infectious diseases of fish spread much faster with increasing temperature. Climate change contributes to pathogens spread in both marine and freshwater areas. In particular, rising water temperatures can expand the range of diseases. Aquatic bioresources have high cumulative mortality from infectious diseases, and pathogens are rapidly progressing, and these phenomena may be powered by climate change, leading to the geographical spread of virulent pathogens to fisheries and aquaculture facilities, threatening much of global production and food security. The article presents data on the impact of climate change and global warming on aquaculture and fisheries. The list of the main pathogens of fish of various etiology in Ukraine, including viral, bacterial and parasitic diseases is presented. The impact of infectious agents on modern aquaculture is described and the main ideas about the possible long-term consequences of climate change for fish farms are given. Practical Value. The review may be useful for specialists in veterinary medicine, epizootology and ichthyopathology. Key words: climate change, infectious diseases of fish, pathogenesis.

scholarly journals The impact of climate change on the resin productivity of dammar tree (Agathis alba) in Inamosol subdistrict, West Seram district, Maluku-Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 883 (1) ◽  
pp. 012079
Author(s):  
J M Matinahoru
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Sampling Technique ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Purposive Sampling ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Change Factors ◽  
Temperature And Humidity ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This research was aimed to determine the impact of climate change on the resin productivity of dammar tree. This research will be useful as data and information for farmers and government to maintain the resin of dammar tree to be optimal and sustainable in production. This research was conducted in Inamosol Sub-district, West Seram District, Maluku Indonesia, during September-October 2020. Village and farmer samples were determined by purposive sampling technique. The selected villages were Honitetu, Hukuanakota and Rambatu. Furthermore, from each village, It was ten farmers to select for interviews and filling the questionnaire. The results showed that the average resin production of farmers in 2019 was 904.2 kg/farmer, while in 2020 was 523.7 kg/farmer. This means that it occurred a decline in resin production in 2020 about 42.08 % for each farmer—the leading cause of the decreased production as climate change factors, namely rainfall, temperature and humidity. Based on climate data of West Seram District in 2019 indicated that rainfall has occurred during six months with an average temperature of 27 °C and relative humidity of 82 %. Meanwhile, in 2020 the rainfall occurs for nine months with an average temperature of 26.5 °C, and relative humidity of 85 %.

The impact of climate change on Canadian archives

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Amanda Oliver
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Disaster Planning ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Records Management ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This study aims to identify Canadian archives that are at risk for climate change threats, to present a snapshot of current practices around disaster planning, sustainability and climate adaptation and to provide recommended next steps for records managers and archivists adapting to climate change. Design/methodology/approach These objectives were achieved by analyzing the geographic locations of Canadian archives in relation to projected climate data and by analyzing the results of a survey distributed to staff at Canadian archival repositories. Findings This study found that all Canadian archives will be impacted by projected changes in both annual mean temperatures and precipitation to the year 2080. Themes that emerged surrounding climate adaptation strategies include the investment in the design and efficiency of spaces housing records and the importance of resilient buildings, the need for increased training on climate change, engaging senior leadership and administrators on climate change and developing regional strategies. Preparing for and mitigating the impact of climate change on the facilities and holdings needs to become a priority. Originality/value This research underscores the importance of developing climate adaptation strategies, considering the sustainability of records management and archival professional practice, increasing the resilience of the facilities and records and strengthening the disaster planning and recovery methods.

scholarly journals The Impact of Climate Change on Livestock Production in Swaziland: The case of Mpolonjeni Area Development Programme

2013 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 1 ◽  
Author(s):  
Majahodvwa S. Nkondze ◽  
Micah B. Masuku ◽  
Absalom M. Manyatsi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Drinking Water ◽  
Livestock Production ◽  
Water Sources ◽  
Development Programme ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Winter Rainfall ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Area Development

This study sought to investigate the impact of climate change on livestock production at the Mpolonjeni Area Development Programme in Swaziland. Primary data were collected using an interview schedule from 323 sampled households. Climate data were collected from the Swaziland Meteorology Department and Livestock data were collected from the Ministry of Agriculture. Perceptions of households and climate data were used to establish climate patterns in Mpolonjeni Area Development Programme. The Recardian regression model and descriptive statistics were used to establish the impact of climate change on livestock production. A total of 99.4% of the respondents suggested that temperatures were increasing whilst 98% felt that rainfall patterns were erratic. About 95% of the respondents have experienced drought at some point in time. Results of the Ricardian model showed that goats net revenue was sensitive to winter temperature, winter temperature squared, winter rainfall and winter rainfall squared. The study concludes that climate change impacts negatively on livestock production and thus livestock owners need touseclimate change adaptation strategies, adapt especially when it comes to drinking water sources for the animals. In case of poor rainfall, farmers need to provide their animals with drinking water. Government should assist livestock farmers with reliable water sources such as canals and dams.

scholarly journals A~simple model for predicting the global distribution of the N<sub>2</sub> fixing host genus <i>Alnus Mill.</i>: impact of climate change on the global distribution in 2100

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 13049-13095 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Sakalli
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Nitrogen Fixation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Distribution ◽  
Linear Functions ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Host Genus ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The importance of N2-fixing plants has increased in last decades. Alnus (alder) is an important plant group because of its nitrogen fixation ability. Alders are generally distributed in humid locations of boreal, temperate and tropical climate zones, where the nitrogen fixation is an important nitrogen source for other plants. To model the nitrogen fixation by alder, data about the global distribution of alder is absolutely required. In this study a new method and model to predict the distribution of N2-fixing genus on global scale is presented. Three linear functions were defined for the determination of climate area of alder locations. The distribution model was improved with the aid of the soil units from FAO-Unesco Soil Database, and vegetation types from Schmithüsen's biogeographical atlas. The model (Alnus-Distribution-Model, ADM) was also developed to predict the impact of climate change on alder distribution by using climate data of five relevant climate models (PCM, ECHam4, HadCM3, CSIRO2 and CGCM2), and four IPCC climate scenarios (i.e. A1FI, A2, B1 and B2) in 2100. The model covered basic approaches to understand the climate change effect on plant migration in the future.

scholarly journals Modeling the Impact of Climate Change on Hydrological Responses in the Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Achenafi Teklay ◽  
Yihun T. Dile ◽  
Dereje H. Asfaw ◽  
Haimanote K Bayabil ◽  
Kibruyesfa Sisay
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Lake Tana ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change And Variability ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Lake Tana Basin ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract BackgroundHydrologic systems have been changing due to the impact of climate change and climate variability. The impacts of climate change are set to increase in the future due to the rise of global warming. Quantifying the impact of climate change on the spatial and temporal hydrological processes is important for integrated water resource management. The Lake Tana basin, which is the source of the Upper Blue Nile, is vulnerable to climate change and variability. This study was carried out in the four major tributary watersheds of the Lake Tana basin: Gilgel Abay, Gumara, Ribb, and Megech. The climate model and hydrological model was used to (i) to evaluate the performance of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool for study watershed, (ii) to assess the future rainfall and temperature variability and change in the study watershed, and (iii) to examine the impact of climate change on future watershed hydrology. The study used dynamically downscaled climate data for the baseline (2010–2015) and future period (2046–2051) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The climate scenarios were simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, with a 4-km horizontal resolution. A linear scaling method was applied to minimize model biases. The SWAT model was used to estimate the baseline and future hydrology using the bias-corrected climate data. ResultsThe performance of the SWAT model was ‘good’ to ‘very good’ for both the calibration and validation periods, with the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency values between 0.71 to 0.92. The projected changes in rainfall vary with seasons and watershed under both scenarios. On average, annual rainfall may increase by 9.8% and 21.2% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. Minimum temperature may rise by 1.68 °C and 2.26 °C while maximum temperature may increase by 1.65 °C and 2.75 °C under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. The changes in climate may cause an increase in surface runoff by 20.9% and 46.5% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, while the evapotranspiration increase by 4.7% and 12.2% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. ConclusionThe findings provide valuable insights to implement appropriate water management strategies to mitigate and adapt to the negative impacts of climate change and variability on the Lake Tana basin, and other regions which have similar agro-ecology.

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