scholarly journals FUZZY DISCRETIZATION TECHNIQUE FOR BAYESIAN FLOOD DISASTER MODEL

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nor Idayu Ahmad Azami ◽  
Nooraini Yusoff ◽  
Ku Ruhana Ku-Mahamud
Keyword(s):  
Disaster Management ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Discretization Method ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
Correlation Model ◽  
Flood Model ◽  
Discretization Technique ◽  
The Government ◽  
Characteristic Area ◽  
Data Discretization

The use of Bayesian Networks in the domain of disaster management has proven its efficiency in developing the disaster model and has been widely used to represent the logical relationships between variables. Prior to modelling the correlation between the flood factors, it was necessary to discretize the continuous data due to the weakness of the Bayesian Network to handle such variables. Therefore, this paper aimed to propose a data discretization technique and compare the existing discretization techniques to produce a spatial correlation model. In particular, the main contribution of this paper was to propose a fuzzy discretization method for the Bayesian-based flood model. The performance of the model is based on precision, recall, F-measure, and the receiver operating characteristic area. The experimental results demonstrated that the fuzzy discretization method provided the best measurements for the correlation model. Consequently, the proposed fuzzy discretization technique facilitated the data input for the flood model and was able to help the researchers in developing effective early warning systems in the future. In addition, the results of correlation were prominent in disaster management to provide reference that may help the government, planners, and decision-makers to perform actions and mitigate flood events.

scholarly journals Urban resilience to floods in parts of Makassar, Indonesia

2020 ◽  
Vol 200 ◽  
pp. 01007
Author(s):  
Meydelin Isani Thoban ◽  
Dyah Rahmawati Hizbaron
Keyword(s):  
Open Space ◽  
Social Economic ◽  
Urban System ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Urban Systems ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
Urban Resilience ◽  
Contributing Factors ◽  
Multi Criteria Evaluation ◽  
The Government

Makassar – the largest and fastest growing area in eastern Indonesia – experienced significant number of damages and losses due to recurrent floods. In early 2019, the flood disaster exposed the urbanized area and inundated 1,658 houses and caused 9,328 impacted population. These figures imply that Makassar needs to create concerted efforts to improve its currently low resilience to floods. This study was designed to assess the urban resilience to floods in Makassar to provide the government with reference for evaluation and identify the most contributing factors to the resilience. In this context, resilience was assessed in four urban systems, namely physical, social, economic, and institutional, in every unit of analysis, i.e., flood-affected districts. The research data included building density, green open space, population density, the number of economically disadvantaged households, community’s subsistence funds, and the availability of early warning systems and disaster emergency stations. The physical, social, economic, institutional, and equal scenarios of resilience were modeled using the Spatial Multi-Criteria Evaluation (SMCE). The results showed that the districts in Makassar were moderately resilient to floods and that the resilience of each urban system shaped the overall resilience. Tamalate and Rappocini sub districts had the lowest resilience values, whereas Manggala was estimated as the most highly resilient district in several scenarios.

PREDICTING FINANCIAL FAILURE OF THE TURKISH BANKS

2006 ◽  
Vol 02 (01) ◽  
pp. 0650005 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. METE DOĞANAY ◽  
NILDAĞ BAŞAK CEYLAN ◽  
RAMAZAN AKTAŞ
Keyword(s):  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Bank Failures ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
Multivariate Statistical ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Financial Difficulties ◽  
Financial Failure ◽  
The Government

Banks are the most important financial institutions in Turkey because other financial institutions are not developed efficiently yet. Turkish banks experienced financial difficulties and a substantial amount of banks failed in the past. This event urged the government to initiate measures to prevent banks from getting into financial difficulties. As a result of these measures, Turkish banking system currently seems to be very attractive for the foreign investors willing to invest in this sector. One of the main concerns of the foreign investors is a possibility of a new banking crisis although it is very remote at this time. The purpose of this study is to develop early warning systems predicting the financial failure at least three years ahead of financial failure date. A number of multivariate statistical models such as multiple regression, discriminant analysis, logit, probit are used. We found that the most appropriate model is logit. The significant variables obtained from the models explain very well the causes of the bank failures. Our models can be used to assist interested parties to predict the probability of financial failure of Turkish banks.

“With Deep Regret and Reluctance”

2021 ◽  
pp. 157-207
Author(s):  
James Waller
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Northern Ireland ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Regime Type ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
State Legitimacy ◽  
Identity Based ◽  
The Government

On January 9, 2020, a compromise agreement was reached that promised “a fair and balanced basis upon which to restore the institutions” of Northern Ireland’s system of governance. Governance refers, broadly, to the ways in which authority in a country is exercised. How are governments selected, monitored, and replaced? What is the capacity of the government to develop and implement sound policies? To what degree do the citizens respect the state and the institutions that govern them? Nearly all early warning systems for violent conflict include various traits of governance as risk factors. In contemporary Northern Ireland, where politics is now the weapon of choice, this chapter will consider five specific risk factors related to the practice of governance: (1) regime type, (2) state legitimacy deficit, (3) weakness of state structures, (4) identity-based polar factionalism, and (5) systematic state-led discrimination.

scholarly journals ROLE OF INDIGENOUS KNOWLEDGE IN MANAGING FLOODS PROJECTS

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (9) ◽  
pp. 87-96
Author(s):  
MUSHTAQ AHMAD
Keyword(s):  
Indigenous Knowledge ◽  
Disaster Management ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Group Discussions ◽  
The Government ◽  
Indigenous Methods ◽  
The Village

Climate change is increasing the frequency of disasters in the world. Accordingly, disaster management strategies are also changing. The UN has focused on acknowledging the Indigenous Knowledge in disaster management strategies. In this study, the village Khursheed in District Sargodha has been focused due to facing frequent floods since decades. They have developed some methods to counter floods. The study was qualitative containing three focus group discussions and thirty interviews, reveals that villagers have devised their own flood forecast and early warning systems. The indigenous methods of constructions of buildings and agricultural techniques have rendered the village more resilient. The elevated spiritual level has enhanced their immune system to face floods. The government needs to devise local level disaster management strategies which should incorporate indigenous and modern knowledge.

Disaster preparedness among disaster management agency officers: a study from rural and urban areas in Aceh, Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Cut Husna ◽  
Ridha Firdaus ◽  
Elly Wardani ◽  
Syarifah Rauzatul Jannah
Keyword(s):  
Conceptual Framework ◽  
Disaster Management ◽  
Emergency Response ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Disaster Preparedness ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Management Agency

Purpose The purpose of this study is to identify the preparedness of disaster mitigation agency officers in both urban and rural areas as high vulnerability zones in Aceh, Indonesia, in dealing with disasters. Design/methodology/approach This cross-sectional study adopted a conceptual framework from the Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI) and United Nations of Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization (UNESCO)/International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR) (LIPI-UNESCO/ISDR, 2006), explaining the study of community preparedness in anticipating earthquake and tsunami disasters. The framework of the study consists of five disaster preparedness parameters, namely, knowledge and attitude to face disasters, policies and guidelines, emergency response plans, disaster early warning systems and mobilization of resources. This conceptual framework was developed after the 2004 tsunami through an analysis study in the three provinces in Indonesia (Aceh, Padang and Bengkulu) experiencing earthquakes and tsunamis. This conceptual framework serves as a guideline and is in line with the objective of the regional disaster management Agency to reduce disaster risk through increasing community preparedness, especially providers or officers in anticipating disasters. Findings There was a significant difference in disaster preparedness among officers from the urban and rural areas. The area size, location accessibility, the communication network and disaster detection and warning facilities could associate with the results. Research limitations/implications The respondents were selected from only two districts in Aceh Province, Indonesia, which are vulnerable to disasters. The study only identifies the disaster preparedness among disaster management agency officers (DMAOs) adopted from LIPI-UNESCO/ISDR about community preparedness in anticipating disasters particularly tsunami and earthquake. Therefore, the results of this study may have limited generalizability to other areas in Indonesia and beyond. Practical implications The results of this study could possibly serve as recommendations for policymakers and disaster management agencies, particularly in rural areas to prepare contingency plans that involve both internal and external institutions to arrange the regulations related to community-based emergency response plans and disaster early warning systems. Such programs of education, training and disaster drill needed to be in place and conducted regularly for the officers in a rural area. Finally, the other sub-scales showed no difference in disaster preparedness, however, collaboration and support to each other in disaster risk reduction plan by improving the capacity building, policy enhancement and disaster management guidelines are required. Also, attempts to optimize logistics adequacy, budget allocations and disaster preparedness education and training for both DMAOs are strongly recommended through the lens of the study. The results of the study might useful for further research that could be developed based on this current study. Originality/value The emergency response plans and disaster early warning systems were significantly different between the rural and urban officers in disaster preparedness. Attending disaster management programs, experiences in responding to disasters and the availability of facilities and funds could be considered in ascertaining the preparedness of officers to deal with disasters.

scholarly journals Early Warning Systems of Currency Crises: An Empirical Investigation in Vietnam

2016 ◽  
Vol 23 (04) ◽  
pp. 97-116
Author(s):  
Anh Vo Thi Thuy ◽  
Anh Tran Nguyen Tram ◽  
Thuy Ha Xuan
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Currency Crises ◽  
Empirical Investigation ◽  
Currency Crisis ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
High Interest Rate ◽  
The Government

Based on the study of Kaminsky and Reinhart (1999), this paper studies and applies early warning systems of currency crises to the case of Vietnam from 1996 to 2014. Its results show that the currency crisis is signaled six times during the observed period. Several principal indicators of the currency crisis in Vietnam include increased import, decreased export, excess real M1 balances, low international reserves and deposit growth, high interest rate and credit growth, high domestic-foreign rate differential, and decreased real output. Hence, the Government and the State Bank of Vietnam should grant appropriate policies not only to control the money supply and interest rate, but also to stimulate the ability of capital mobilization of Vietnam’s banking system and to facilitate export activities in the coming years.

scholarly journals The Impact of Political Stability on the Effectiveness of the Early Warning Systems in Predicting the Financial Crises: The Case of Jordan and Qatar

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 398
Author(s):  
Baker Shnekat ◽  
Ghazi Al-Assaf
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Financial Crises ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
Economic Variables ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

The research aims to identify the impact of political stability in determining the effectiveness of early warning systems in predicting financial crises. The research applied a standard descriptive approach.In general, when comparing the two countries before including the model for economic variables the results showed that the nature of the impact of economic variables is different as the index of the financial crisis in Jordan is affected by the import of goods and services while the most influential indicators in the early warning model for the occurrence of the financial crisis in Qatar is the index of exporting goods and services on the basis that the system Qatari financial is very sensitive to the subject of export of gas and oil. Also, the results showed that there is a very significant impact of political stability on the financial crisis, which is greater than the impact of economic indicators, and if the two countries differed in which indicators for political stability have the greatest impact on the occurrence of the financial crisis, in Jordan the most influential indicator was the government effectiveness variable in Qatar, the regulatory quality index was the most influential.

The Influence of Mentawai Tsunami to Public Policy on Tsunami Warning in Indonesia

2012 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 102-106 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pariatmono ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Policy ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Careful Examination ◽  
Management Approach ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
Tsunami Early Warning ◽  
Warning Message ◽  
Future Events ◽  
The Government ◽  
Tsunami Early Warning Systems

The tsunami on October 25, 2010, in Mentawai is examined in this paper. In particular, since the Indonesia Tsunami Early Warning Systems (InaTEWS) has already been operational, careful examination of its effectiveness are made, followed by suggestions for the development of a public policy, which needs to be adopted by the Government of Indonesia. The investigation started with a detailed explanation of InaTEWS, its components, and its performance indicators. For the Mentawai case, a new management approach concerning the research visa permits was taken, which will be adopted for future events. Several points for improvement are identified, such as developing the warning message contents to include estimate time arrivals and wave height and performing systematic culture components. All the improvements were adopted in the Presidential Instruction to serve as a strong legal basis for a public policy.

scholarly journals Policy Direction for AHP-Based Disaster Mitigation Education the Post Eruption of Dempo Volcano in Pagar Alam City - Indonesia

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (9) ◽  
pp. 39-43
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Disaster Preparedness ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Disaster Mitigation ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
Research Findings ◽  
The Government ◽  
Hazard Level ◽  
Policy Direction

This research is backed by the lack of attention of the government in the world of education against the risk of Post eruption of Dempo volcano in Pagar Alam City in the form of preparation and socialization of disaster mitigation measures, evacuation pathways provided, early warning systems in the volcano disaster-prone areas. On the other hand, with disaster preparedness, damage and victim numbers can be minimized. The purpose of this research is to formulate a priority referral education mitigation of the eruption of post-eruption of Dempo volcano. Data collection using relevant interviews, observations and information collection. Then the data is grouped by hazard level criteria, vulnerabilities, and risks that may arise. Data is processed with assessment and analysis with the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). Research findings suggest that the priorities of disaster mitigation education of post-eruption of Dempo volcano are as follows: the measurable and periodical aspects of training and disaster simulation (0.832), coordination and cooperation in anticipating disasters of (0.813), human resources amounting to (0.801), routes and evacuation sites amounting to (0.799), and early warning systems of (0.795).

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