scholarly journals Zmiana liczby zgonów i trwania życia w latach 2016–2018. Przyczynek do analizy zgonów w Polsce

2020 ◽  
pp. 9-25
Author(s):  
Wiktoria Wróblewska

Since the 1990s, life expectancy at birth in Poland has increased by over three months on average each year for both sexes. However, in recent years there has been a decrease in life expectancy, and the number of deaths increased by 6% for men and 8% for women between 2016 and 2018. The aim of this study is to identify the subpopulations most sensitive to the recent changes in mortality in Poland. The increase in deaths is described with regard to changes in age distribution of the population and age at death contributing to life expectancy changes in recent years is analysed. The findings serve as a basis for making references to theoretical knowledge and proposals for future research directions as well as recommendations for public statistics and social policy. The increase in the number of deaths is a new phenomenon that cannot be accounted for by the size differences between the cohorts born between the two world wars and during the Second World War or the ageing of the baby-boom generations. The greatest contributors to the decreasing life expectancy are deaths at older age. This and the fast growing population aged 85 years and more indicate a need to devote more research attention to analysing mortality in the oldest age groups. It is also emphasised that the elderly are potentially the most prone to various threats associated with an excessive number of deaths, including inadequate health care funding.

BMJ Open ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. e036529
Author(s):  
Julie Ramsay ◽  
Jon Minton ◽  
Colin Fischbacher ◽  
Lynda Fenton ◽  
Maria Kaye-Bardgett ◽  
...  

ObjectiveAnnual gains in life expectancy in Scotland were slower in recent years than in the previous two decades. This analysis investigates how deaths in different age groups and from different causes have contributed to annual average change in life expectancy across two time periods: 2000–2002 to 2012–2014 and 2012–2014 to 2015–2017.SettingScotland.MethodsLife expectancy at birth was calculated from death and population counts, disaggregated by 5 year age group and by underlying cause of death. Arriaga’s method of life expectancy decomposition was applied to produce estimates of the contribution of different age groups and underlying causes to changes in life expectancy at birth for the two periods.ResultsAnnualised gains in life expectancy between 2012–2014 and 2015–2017 were markedly smaller than in the earlier period. Almost all age groups saw worsening mortality trends, which deteriorated for most cause of death groups between 2012–2014 and 2015–2017. In particular, the previously observed substantial life expectancy gains due to reductions in mortality from circulatory causes, which most benefited those aged 55–84 years, more than halved. Mortality rates for those aged 30–54 years and 90+ years worsened, due in large part to increases in drug-related deaths, and dementia and Alzheimer’s disease, respectively.ConclusionFuture research should seek to explain the changes in mortality trends for all age groups and causes. More investigation is required to establish to what extent shortcomings in the social security system and public services may be contributing to the adverse trends and preventing mitigation of the impact of other contributing factors, such as influenza outbreaks.


2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
William Joe ◽  
Lathan Liou ◽  
S V Subramanian

ABSTRACTWith overall global improvements in life expectancy, one important concern is whether there is cross-country convergence in life expectancy at various ages. Insights in convergence patterns can help realign research priorities help governments better structure health investments across various age groups. We reveal global patterns in life expectancy improvements and identify convergent clubs in life expectancy at various ages for 201 countries / areas between 1950 and 2015. In the case of life expectancy at younger ages, most countries are moving in the same direction, but we observe significant cross-country variation for older adults and the elderly. Further, we observe increasing variance in life expectancy for older adults and elderly across countries. Increasing global heterogeneity in survival experience of older adults and the elderly population thus has remained a neglected aspect in the discussions on global life expectancy improvements. Data, research and policy focus beyond life-expectancy at birth is therefore critical to accelerate survival gains among older adults and elderly, particularly from the developing world.


Author(s):  
Xiaochen Zhang ◽  
Lanxin Hui ◽  
Linchao Wei ◽  
Fuchuan Song ◽  
Fei Hu

Electric power wheelchairs (EPWs) enhance the mobility capability of the elderly and the disabled, while the human-machine interaction (HMI) determines how well the human intention will be precisely delivered and how human-machine system cooperation will be efficiently conducted. A bibliometric quantitative analysis of 1154 publications related to this research field, published between 1998 and 2020, was conducted. We identified the development status, contributors, hot topics, and potential future research directions of this field. We believe that the combination of intelligence and humanization of an EPW HMI system based on human-machine collaboration is an emerging trend in EPW HMI methodology research. Particular attention should be paid to evaluating the applicability and benefits of the EPW HMI methodology for the users, as well as how much it contributes to society. This study offers researchers a comprehensive understanding of EPW HMI studies in the past 22 years and latest trends from the evolutionary footprints and forward-thinking insights regarding future research.


2019 ◽  
Vol 29 (Supplement_4) ◽  
Author(s):  
N Nante ◽  
L Kundisova ◽  
F Gori ◽  
A Martini ◽  
F Battisti ◽  
...  

Abstract Introduction Changing of life expectancy at birth (LE) over time reflects variations of mortality rates of a certain population. Italy is amongst the countries with the highest LE, Tuscany ranks fifth at the national level. The aim of the present work was to evaluate the impact of various causes of death in different age groups on the change in LE in the Tuscany region (Italy) during period 1987-2015. Material and methods Mortality data relative to residents that died during the period between 1987/1989 and 2013/2015 were provided by the Tuscan Regional Mortality Registry. The causes of death taken into consideration were cardiovascular (CVS), respiratory (RESP) and infective (INF) diseases and cancer (TUM). The decomposition of LE gain was realized with software Epidat, using the Pollard’s method. Results The overall LE gain during the period between two three-years periods was 6.7 years for males, with a major gain between 65-89, and 4.5 years for females, mainly improved between 75-89, <1 year for both sexes. The major gain (2.6 years) was attributable to the reduction of mortality for CVS, followed by TUM (1.76 in males and 0.83 in females) and RESP (0.4 in males; 0.1 in females). The major loss of years of LE was attributable to INF (-0.15 in females; -0.07 in males) and lung cancer in females (-0.13), for which the opposite result was observed for males (gain of 0.62 years of LE). Conclusions During the study period (1987-2015) the gain in LE was major for males. To the reduction of mortality for CVS have contributed to the tempestuous treatment of acute CVS events and secondary CVS prevention. For TUM the result is attributable to the adherence of population to oncologic screening programmes. The excess of mortality for INF that lead to the loss of LE can be attributed to the passage from ICD-9 to ICD-10 in 2003 (higher sensibility of ICD-10) and to the diffusion of multi-drug resistant bacteria, which lead to elevated mortality in these years. Key messages The gain in LE during the period the 1987-2015 was higher in males. The major contribution to gain in LE was due to a reduction of mortality for CVS diseases.


Author(s):  
Jing Huo ◽  
Qinglong Gou ◽  
Qi Dai ◽  
Zhimin Huang

Online word-of-mouth (WOM) has received significant research attention as the Internet has rapidly developed. Owing to specific Internet platforms such as consumer reviews sites and social network sites, online WOM spreads much more quickly and widely than traditional WOM, and that phenomenon ultimately makes online WOM play a key role in a consumer's purchase decision. In this chapter we present an overview of previous research on online WOM to facilitate future research in this area. In this review, previous researches are divided into three streams, i.e., (1) the effectiveness of online WOM, (2) the valence of online WOM, and (3) the antecedents and consequences of online WOM. Also, two possible future research directions are suggested at the end the chapter.


2012 ◽  
pp. 608-619 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elizabeth Mazur ◽  
Margaret L. Signorella ◽  
Michelle Hough

Early research on older adult computer users focused on the possibility for technology to increase social interaction and alleviate loneliness. Subsequent research has been equivocal on the possible benefits of the Internet for well-being. Nonetheless, in spite of an initial “gray gap,” older adults are increasingly joining younger cohorts in using the Internet. Barriers to older adults’ use of the Internet remain, such as physical and cognitive limitations. Attitudinal barriers may exist, but it is unclear whether these result from lack of experience or differences in income or health status. Business researchers have found that older persons differ from other age groups in their Internet engagement patterns, including online buying. Future research directions include whether computers can improve cognitive functioning and quality of life, how to increase engagement levels, and if there will always be a lag in technology use among older adults.


2019 ◽  
Vol 134 (6) ◽  
pp. 634-642 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jay S. Kaufman ◽  
Corinne A. Riddell ◽  
Sam Harper

Objectives: Racial differences in mortality in the United States have narrowed and vary by time and place. The objectives of our study were to (1) examine the gap in life expectancy between white and black persons (hereinafter, racial gap in life expectancy) in 4 states (California, Georgia, Illinois, and New York) and (2) estimate trends in the contribution of major causes of death (CODs) to the racial gap in life expectancy by age group. Methods: We extracted data on the number of deaths and population sizes for 1969-2013 by state, sex, race, age group, and 6 major CODs. We used a Bayesian time-series model to smooth and impute mortality rates and decomposition methods to estimate trends in sex- and age-specific contributions of CODs to the racial gap in life expectancy. Results: The racial gap in life expectancy at birth decreased in all 4 states, especially among men in New York (from 8.8 to 1.1 years) and women in Georgia (from 8.0 to 1.7 years). Although few deaths occurred among persons aged 1-39, racial differences in mortality at these ages (mostly from injuries and infant mortality) contributed to the racial gap in life expectancy, especially among men in California (1.0 year of the 4.3-year difference in 2013) and Illinois (1.9 years of the 6.7-year difference in 2013). Cardiovascular deaths contributed most to the racial gap in life expectancy for adults aged 40-64, but contributions decreased among women aged 40-64, especially in Georgia (from 2.8 to 0.5 years). The contribution of cancer deaths to inequality increased in California and Illinois, whereas New York had the greatest reductions in inequality attributable to cancer deaths (from 0.6 to 0.2 years among men and from 0.2 to 0 years among women). Conclusions: Future research should identify policy innovations and economic changes at the state level to better understand New York’s success, which may help other states emulate its performance.


2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jordi Perez-Panades ◽  
Paloma Botella-Rocamora ◽  
Miguel Angel Martinez-Beneito

Abstract Background Most epidemiological risk indicators strongly depend on the age composition of populations, which makes the direct comparison of raw (unstandardized) indicators misleading because of the different age structures of the spatial units of study. Age-standardized rates (ASR) are a common solution for overcoming this confusing effect. The main drawback of ASRs is that they depend on age-specific rates which, when working with small areas, are often based on very few, or no, observed cases for most age groups. A similar effect occurs with life expectancy at birth and many more epidemiological indicators, which makes standardized mortality ratios (SMR) the omnipresent risk indicator for small areas epidemiologic studies. Methods To deal with this issue, a multivariate smoothing model, the M-model, is proposed in order to fit the age-specific probabilities of death (PoDs) for each spatial unit, which assumes dependence between closer age groups and spatial units. This age–space dependence structure enables information to be transferred between neighboring consecutive age groups and neighboring areas, at the same time, providing more reliable age-specific PoDs estimates. Results Three case studies are presented to illustrate the wide range of applications that smoothed age specific PoDs have in practice . The first case study shows the application of the model to a geographical study of lung cancer mortality in women. This study illustrates the convenience of considering age–space interactions in geographical studies and to explore the different spatial risk patterns shown by the different age groups. Second, the model is also applied to the study of ischaemic heart disease mortality in women in two cities at the census tract level. Smoothed age-standardized rates are derived and compared for the census tracts of both cities, illustrating some advantages of this mortality indicator over traditional SMRs. In the latest case study, the model is applied to estimate smoothed life expectancy (LE), which is the most widely used synthetic indicator for characterizing overall mortality differences when (not so small) spatial units are considered. Conclusion Our age–space model is an appropriate and flexible proposal that provides more reliable estimates of the probabilities of death, which allow the calculation of enhanced epidemiological indicators (smoothed ASR, smoothed LE), thus providing alternatives to traditional SMR-based studies of small areas.


Author(s):  
Minsung Sohn ◽  
Xianhua Che ◽  
Sungwon Lim ◽  
Hee-Jung Park

The aim of this study was to measure the magnitude and distribution of a Korean’s lifetime dental expenses depending on age and sex, by constructing a hypothetical lifetime and life table of survival. Additionally, we estimated the difference in life expectancy between men and women and its impact on dental expenses. We used the 2015 Korea Health Panel Survey to calculate the total dental expenditure, including expenses paid directly by patients and those paid by insurers. We generated survival profiles to simulate dental expenses during a typical lifetime (from birth to age 95) using the abridged life table (five-year intervals for age groups) in 2015 from the South Korean Statistical Information Service. We independently calculated the remaining dental expenses for survivors of all ages. The results showed that an estimate of average lifetime dental expenditure was $31,851 per capita: $31,587 for men and $32,318 for women. Nearly 33% of the average per capita lifetime dental expenditure was attributable to the longer life expectancy of women, with no statistically significant difference in lifetime dental expenditure between men and women. Many survivors incurred 70% of their lifetime dental expenses before age 65. The results highlighted the need for policymakers to address spending on age-specific dental care owing to extended life expectancy, given the disproportionate share of healthcare resources supporting the elderly.


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