scholarly journals How have changes in death by cause and age group contributed to the recent stalling of life expectancy gains in Scotland? Comparative decomposition analysis of mortality data, 2000–2002 to 2015–2017

BMJ Open ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. e036529
Author(s):  
Julie Ramsay ◽  
Jon Minton ◽  
Colin Fischbacher ◽  
Lynda Fenton ◽  
Maria Kaye-Bardgett ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Cause Of Death ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Decomposition Analysis ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Mortality Trends ◽  
Life Expectancy At Birth ◽  
The Impact

ObjectiveAnnual gains in life expectancy in Scotland were slower in recent years than in the previous two decades. This analysis investigates how deaths in different age groups and from different causes have contributed to annual average change in life expectancy across two time periods: 2000–2002 to 2012–2014 and 2012–2014 to 2015–2017.SettingScotland.MethodsLife expectancy at birth was calculated from death and population counts, disaggregated by 5 year age group and by underlying cause of death. Arriaga’s method of life expectancy decomposition was applied to produce estimates of the contribution of different age groups and underlying causes to changes in life expectancy at birth for the two periods.ResultsAnnualised gains in life expectancy between 2012–2014 and 2015–2017 were markedly smaller than in the earlier period. Almost all age groups saw worsening mortality trends, which deteriorated for most cause of death groups between 2012–2014 and 2015–2017. In particular, the previously observed substantial life expectancy gains due to reductions in mortality from circulatory causes, which most benefited those aged 55–84 years, more than halved. Mortality rates for those aged 30–54 years and 90+ years worsened, due in large part to increases in drug-related deaths, and dementia and Alzheimer’s disease, respectively.ConclusionFuture research should seek to explain the changes in mortality trends for all age groups and causes. More investigation is required to establish to what extent shortcomings in the social security system and public services may be contributing to the adverse trends and preventing mitigation of the impact of other contributing factors, such as influenza outbreaks.

scholarly journals How have changes in death by cause and age group contributed to the recent stalling of life expectancy gains in Scotland? Comparative decomposition analysis of mortality data, 2000-02 to 2015-17

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julie Ramsay ◽  
Jonathan Minton ◽  
Colin Fischbacher ◽  
Lynda Fenton ◽  
Maria Kaye-Bardgett ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Cause Of Death ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Decomposition Analysis ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Contributing Factors ◽  
Mortality Trends ◽  
Life Expectancy At Birth ◽  
The Impact

BackgroundAnnual gains in life expectancy in Scotland were slower in recent years than in the previous two decades. This analysis investigates how deaths in different age groups and from different causes have contributed to annual average change in life expectancy across two time periods: 2000-02 to 2012-14 and 2012-14 to 2015-17. MethodsLife expectancy at birth was calculated from death and population counts, disaggregated by five-year age-group and by underlying cause of death. Arriaga’s method of life expectancy decomposition was applied to produce estimates of the contribution of different age-groups and underlying causes to changes in life expectancy at birth for the two periods.FindingsAverage annual life expectancy gains between 2012-14 to 2015-17 were markedly smaller than in the earlier period. Almost all age-groups saw worsening mortality trends, which deteriorated for most cause of death groups between 2012-14 and 2015-17. In particular, the previously observed substantial life expectancy gains due to reductions in mortality from circulatory causes, which most benefited those aged 55-84 years, more than halved. Mortality rates for those aged 30-54 years and 90+ years worsened, due in large part to increases in drug-related deaths, and dementia and Alzheimer’s disease respectively. InterpretationFuture research should seek to explain the changes in mortality trends for all age-groups and causes. More investigation is required to establish to what extent shortcomings in the social security system and public services may be contributing to the adverse trends and preventing mitigation of the impact of other contributing factors, such as influenza outbreaks.

scholarly journals The decomposition of life expectancy for age and cause of death in Tuscany, Italy

2019 ◽  
Vol 29 (Supplement_4) ◽  
Author(s):  
N Nante ◽  
L Kundisova ◽  
F Gori ◽  
A Martini ◽  
F Battisti ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Causes Of Death ◽  
National Level ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Resistant Bacteria ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Life Expectancy At Birth ◽  
Icd 10 ◽  
Reduction Of Mortality ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Introduction Changing of life expectancy at birth (LE) over time reflects variations of mortality rates of a certain population. Italy is amongst the countries with the highest LE, Tuscany ranks fifth at the national level. The aim of the present work was to evaluate the impact of various causes of death in different age groups on the change in LE in the Tuscany region (Italy) during period 1987-2015. Material and methods Mortality data relative to residents that died during the period between 1987/1989 and 2013/2015 were provided by the Tuscan Regional Mortality Registry. The causes of death taken into consideration were cardiovascular (CVS), respiratory (RESP) and infective (INF) diseases and cancer (TUM). The decomposition of LE gain was realized with software Epidat, using the Pollard’s method. Results The overall LE gain during the period between two three-years periods was 6.7 years for males, with a major gain between 65-89, and 4.5 years for females, mainly improved between 75-89, <1 year for both sexes. The major gain (2.6 years) was attributable to the reduction of mortality for CVS, followed by TUM (1.76 in males and 0.83 in females) and RESP (0.4 in males; 0.1 in females). The major loss of years of LE was attributable to INF (-0.15 in females; -0.07 in males) and lung cancer in females (-0.13), for which the opposite result was observed for males (gain of 0.62 years of LE). Conclusions During the study period (1987-2015) the gain in LE was major for males. To the reduction of mortality for CVS have contributed to the tempestuous treatment of acute CVS events and secondary CVS prevention. For TUM the result is attributable to the adherence of population to oncologic screening programmes. The excess of mortality for INF that lead to the loss of LE can be attributed to the passage from ICD-9 to ICD-10 in 2003 (higher sensibility of ICD-10) and to the diffusion of multi-drug resistant bacteria, which lead to elevated mortality in these years. Key messages The gain in LE during the period the 1987-2015 was higher in males. The major contribution to gain in LE was due to a reduction of mortality for CVS diseases.

scholarly journals At-a-glance - The impact of poisoning-related mortality on life expectancy at birth in Canada, 2000 to 2016

2019 ◽  
Vol 39 (2) ◽  
pp. 56-60 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heather Orpana ◽  
Justin J. Lang ◽  
Diana George ◽  
Jessica Halverson
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Opioid Overdose ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Life Expectancy At Birth ◽  
Current Trends ◽  
National Mortality ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Related Mortality

Increases in opioid-related mortality have contributed to declines in life expectancy at birth in the United States and British Columbia. Canadian national mortality data from 2000 to 2016 were analyzed to determine the contribution of poisoning-related mortality to changes in life expectancy at birth by age group and sex. From 2000 to 2016, life expectancy at birth increased by almost three years; however, mortality due to unintentional poisonings, including those involving opioids, curbed this increase by 0.16 years. Although a national decrease in life expectancy at birth has not been observed in Canada during this period, current trends suggest that the national opioid overdose crisis will continue to attenuate gains to life expectancy.

scholarly journals Pedestrian Mortality Trends In Children Over Four Decades In Transitional Lithuania

2016 ◽  
Vol 26 (5) ◽  
pp. 13-19
Author(s):  
Birutė Strukčinskienė ◽  
Robert Bauer ◽  
Sigitas Griškonis ◽  
Vaiva Strukčinskaitė
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Young People ◽  
Road Safety ◽  
Road Traffic ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Prevention Measures ◽  
Mortality Trends ◽  
Road Users ◽  
The Impact

The aim of the study was to examine the long-term trends in pedestrian mortality for children (aged 0 to 14 years) and young people (aged 15 to 19 years) over four decades in transitional Lithuania. Methods. Road traffic fatality data were obtained from Statistics Lithuania and the Archives of Health Information Centre. Trends were analysed by linear regression using “Independence” as a slopechanging intervention in 1991 and population as a further explanatory factor in structural time series models. Results. The impact of the interventions, along with the reforms and changes related with the Independence, on pedestrian fatality trends in our time series model was found highly statistically significant for children 0 to 14 years (p<0.001) and still significant for young people 15 to 19 years (p<0.05). No significant impact on the trend of road traffic deaths was found for the “control-groups” of non-pedestrian road users in the age group 0 to 14 years and adult pedestrians (over 19 years of age). For the age group 15 to 19 years the effect of reforms was also significant for non-pedestrians (p<0.05). These results indicate that the effect of measures and changes used in the post-independence period was more specific in children that participated in road traffic as pedestrians than in adult pedestrians, or in nonpedestrian road users. Conclusions. Pedestrian deaths in Lithuania fell significantly in the age groups 0-14 and 15-19 years. A declining trend was found in road traffic fatalities and in pedestrian deaths in transitional Lithuania in the post-independence period. Socioeconomic and political transformations, systematic reforms in healthcare along with sustainable preventive measures may have contributed to this decrease. Targeted road safety measures were road traffic regulations, pedestrian education and environmentally based prevention measures. As child pedestrians are the most vulnerable group of road users, continued road safety education and promotion are recommended in order to maintain this trend, and to involve adult pedestrians in this development.

scholarly journals Black and White Differences in Life Expectancy in 4 US States, 1969-2013

2019 ◽  
Vol 134 (6) ◽  
pp. 634-642 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jay S. Kaufman ◽  
Corinne A. Riddell ◽  
Sam Harper
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Racial Differences ◽  
State Level ◽  
Decomposition Methods ◽  
The United States ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Life Expectancy At Birth ◽  
Racial Gap

Objectives: Racial differences in mortality in the United States have narrowed and vary by time and place. The objectives of our study were to (1) examine the gap in life expectancy between white and black persons (hereinafter, racial gap in life expectancy) in 4 states (California, Georgia, Illinois, and New York) and (2) estimate trends in the contribution of major causes of death (CODs) to the racial gap in life expectancy by age group. Methods: We extracted data on the number of deaths and population sizes for 1969-2013 by state, sex, race, age group, and 6 major CODs. We used a Bayesian time-series model to smooth and impute mortality rates and decomposition methods to estimate trends in sex- and age-specific contributions of CODs to the racial gap in life expectancy. Results: The racial gap in life expectancy at birth decreased in all 4 states, especially among men in New York (from 8.8 to 1.1 years) and women in Georgia (from 8.0 to 1.7 years). Although few deaths occurred among persons aged 1-39, racial differences in mortality at these ages (mostly from injuries and infant mortality) contributed to the racial gap in life expectancy, especially among men in California (1.0 year of the 4.3-year difference in 2013) and Illinois (1.9 years of the 6.7-year difference in 2013). Cardiovascular deaths contributed most to the racial gap in life expectancy for adults aged 40-64, but contributions decreased among women aged 40-64, especially in Georgia (from 2.8 to 0.5 years). The contribution of cancer deaths to inequality increased in California and Illinois, whereas New York had the greatest reductions in inequality attributable to cancer deaths (from 0.6 to 0.2 years among men and from 0.2 to 0 years among women). Conclusions: Future research should identify policy innovations and economic changes at the state level to better understand New York’s success, which may help other states emulate its performance.

scholarly journals Trends in Avoidable Mortality in Lithuania During 2001–2008 and Their Impact on Life Expectancy

Medicina ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 47 (9) ◽  
pp. 504 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vilius Grabauskas ◽  
Aldona Gaižauskienė ◽  
Skirmantė Sauliūnė ◽  
Rasa Mišeikytė
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Avoidable Mortality ◽  
Average Life Expectancy ◽  
Mortality Trends ◽  
Annual Percent Change ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Causes Of Deaths ◽  
Changes Over Time ◽  
The Impact

The process of the restructuring of health care system in Lithuania demonstrates the need to continue the monitoring of changes in avoidable mortality. Objective. To assess the level of avoidable mortality as well as its changes over time in Lithuania during 2001–2008 and to define the impact of avoidable mortality on life expectancy. Material and Methods. The mortality data were taken from the Lithuanian Department of Statistics. Twelve avoidable causes of deaths (treatable and preventable) were analyzed. Mortality trends were assessed by computing the average annual percent change (AAPC). The shortening of average life expectancy was computed from survival tables. Results. During the period 2001–2008, the avoidable mortality was increasing more significantly (AAPC 3.0%, P<0.05) than the overall mortality (AAPC 1.7%, P<0.05) in the population aged 5–64 years. The increasing trend was mainly determined by mortality from preventable diseases (AAPC 4.6%, P<0.05). The avoidable causes of death reduced the life expectancy by 1.77 years (preventable by 1.12 and treatable by 0.63 years). Diversity in trends in mortality of different avoidable causes was disclosed. A declining trend in mortality caused by chronic rheumatic heart disease and lung cancer was observed for males (AAPC –22.6% and –2.1%, respectively; P<0.05). However, the mortality caused by liver cirrhosis was increasing for both genders (AAPC 16.1% for males and 17.6% for females, P<0.01) and that caused by tuberculosis – only for females (AAPC 7.8%, P<0.05). Conclusions. An increasing trend in avoidable mortality was observed. Deaths caused by the diseases that could have been prevented had the greatest impact on the increasing mortality and decreasing life expectancy.

scholarly journals Analysis of trends in total deaths and AIDS-related deaths certified at Mosvold Hospital, Ingwavuma, KwaZulu-Natal, from 2003 to 2008

2010 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
C H Vaughan Williams
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Longitudinal Study ◽  
Hiv Infection ◽  
Cause Of Death ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Age At Death ◽  
Mortality Trends ◽  
Kwazulu Natal ◽  
Roll Out

Objectives. To analyse mortality trends from deaths registered at Mosvold Hospital, Ingwavuma, KwaZulu-Natal, and possible impact of programmes to treat and prevent HIV infection. Design. Longitudinal study of death certifications from 2003 to 2008. Setting. Mosvold Hospital mortuary, Ingwavuma. Subjects. Counterfoils of form 83/BI-1663, Notification/Register of Death/Stillbirths (Republic of South Africa, Department of Home Affairs), completed at Mosvold Hospital from January 2003 to December 2008. Outcome measures. Age at death, cause of death, patterns of deaths grouped by age, gender and cause of death. Results. AIDS-related deaths were the cause of 53% of deaths, particularly affecting the 20 - 59-year and under-5 age groups. Since 2005 there has been a decline in deaths in the 20 - 59 age group and an increase in average age at death. Conclusions. The decrease in mortality from 2005 may be associated with antiretroviral roll-out reducing mortality from AIDS-related illnesses.

scholarly journals Main components of life expectancy increase during the cardiovascular revolution in spain

2020 ◽  
pp. 167
Author(s):  
Aina Faus-Bertomeu ◽  
Ramón Domènech Giménez ◽  
Svitlana Poniakina ◽  
Noelia Cámara-Izquierdo ◽  
Rosa Gómez-Redondo
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Cause Of Death ◽  
Gender Gap ◽  
Heart Diseases ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Decomposition Analysis ◽  
Health Trends ◽  
Modifiable Factors ◽  
Circulatory System Diseases ◽  
Icd 10

The circulatory system diseases have contributed decisively to an increase in life expectancy (LE) in Spain. The contribution to LE is calculated through a decomposition analysis by sex and five-year age groups. We divide the years studied into two periods, 1980–1996 and 1996–2012. Using the Human Cause-of-Death Database (HCD), we examine specific subcauses at a 4-digit ICD-10 level and how they contribute to the change in LE among men and among women. The analysis shows that cerebrovascular diseases (CBVDs) contribute most to years gained until 1996, while ischemic heart diseases (IHDs) contribute most thereafter. Among women, the largest increase is due to specific CBVDs subcauses; among men IHD subcauses also have an important role. Regarding contribution by age, gains by CVDs are particularly significant at older ages, while contributions by IHDs are more relevant from the age of 50 onwards, especially among men. Furthermore, the gender gap in LE is influenced by the different evolution of various circulatory diseases during the period of study, but the evolution of these diseases is not always reflected equally in both sexes. The study evidences the need for greater precision in the registers in order to take advantage of the potentialities of the 4-digit classification of the ICD, thus leading to a better in depth knowledge in health trends. Finally, it shows the mortality due to modifiable factors mainly classified in IHDs, and the consequent need for the Spanish health system to act on them.Las enfermedades del sistema circulatorio, han contribuido de manera decisiva al aumento de la esperanza de vida (LE) en España. Las contribuciones a la LE se calculan a través de un análisis de descomposición por sexo y grupos de edad quinquenales. Dividimos los años estudiados en dos períodos, 1980–1996 y 1996–2012. Utilizando la Human Cause-of-Death Database (HCD), examinamos subcausas específicas a un nivel de 4 dígitos de ICD-10 y cómo contribuyen al aumento o disminución de LE tanto en hombres como en mujeres. El análisis muestra que las enfermedades cerebrovasculares (CBVD) son las que más contribuyen a los años ganados hasta 1996, mientras que las enfermedades isquémicas (IHD) son las que más contribuyen posteriormente. Entre las mujeres, el mayor aumento se debe a subcausas específicas de las CBVD; en los hombres, las subcausas de IHD también tienen un papel importante. En lo que respecta a la contribución por edad, las ganancias por CBVDs son particularmente significativas en las edades mayores, mientras que las contribuciones por las IHD son más relevantes a partir de los 50 años, especialmente entre los hombres. La brecha entre hombres y mujeres en la LE está influenciada por la evolución diferente de varias enfermedades circulatorias durante el período de estudio, pero la evolución de estas enfermedades no siempre se refleja por igual en ambos sexos. Además, se pone en evidencia la necesidad de una mayor precisión en los registros para aprovechar las potencialidades de la clasificación a 4 dígitos de la CIE, alcanzando de este modo un conocimiento más profundo de las tendencias de salud. Finalmente, el estudio muestra la mortalidad debida a factores modificables que se clasifican principalmente en las IHD, y la consiguiente necesidad de que el sistema de salud español actúe sobre ellas.

scholarly journals Recent decline in life expectancy at birth in Slovenia

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Aleša Lotrič Dolinar ◽  
Jože Sambt
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Cause Of Death ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Decomposition Technique ◽  
Life Expectancy At Birth ◽  
Table Model ◽  
Life Table Model ◽  
Rapid Pace ◽  
External Causes

For many decades, life expectancy at birth (e0) in Slovenia has been increasing at a very rapid pace. However, in 2015, e0 declined slightly; it recovered in 2016, but fell again in 2017 for women. In the same period, a pause in declining mortality was observed in numerous developed countries worldwide. It is too early to provide a thorough analysis and firm conclusions, but we shed some light on the topic by decomposing the observed decline in Slovenia by age and cause of death. In particular, using a life table model and life expectancy decomposition technique, we analyse what cause of death for what age group contributed the most to this decline in life expectancy at birth. We show that the main reason for the recent drop in life expectancy at birth in Slovenia was higher mortality due to external causes for men of all ages and due to neoplasms for women above 60 years and men above 50 years.

scholarly journals Changing contribution of smoking to the sex differences in life expectancy in Europe, 1950–2014

2020 ◽  
Vol 35 (9) ◽  
pp. 835-841
Author(s):  
Fanny Janssen
Keyword(s):  
Sex Differences ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Sex Difference ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Decomposition Analysis ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Attributable Mortality ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Life Expectancy At Birth ◽  
Related Part

Abstract This article provides a detailed and overarching illustration of the contribution of smoking to sex differences in life expectancy at birth (e0) in Europe, focusing on changes over time and differences between both European countries and European regions. For this purpose, the sex difference in e0 for 31 European countries over the 1950–2014 period was decomposed into a smoking- and a non-smoking-related part, using all-cause mortality data and indirectly estimated smoking-attributable mortality rates by age and sex, and a formal decomposition analysis. It was found that smoking-attributable mortality contributed, on average, 3 years (43.5%) to the 7-year life expectancy difference between women and men in 2014. This contribution, was largest in 1995, at 5.2 out of 9.0 years, and subsequently declined in parallel with the average sex difference in life expectancy. The average contribution of smoking-attributable mortality was especially large in North-Western Europe around 1975; in Southern Europe around 1985; and in Eastern Europe around 1990–1995, when smoking-attributable mortality reached maximum levels among men, but was still low among women. The observed parallel decline from 1995 onwards in the sex differences in e0 and the absolute contribution of smoking to this sex difference suggests that this recent decline in the sex difference in e0 can be almost fully explained by historical changes in sex differences in smoking, and, consequently, smoking-attributable mortality. In line with the progression of the smoking epidemic, the sex differences in life expectancy in Europe are expected to further decline in the future.

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