Smooth Threshold Autoregressive models and Markov process: An application to the Lebanese GDP growth rate

Conflicts in the form of civil war, ethnic tensions and political discord are of enduring concern and a major bottleneck to economic development in Sri Lanka. Three decades of civil war and unethical political culture have caused severe economic problems for the country, including slower rate of growth and a huge defence expenditure. The aim of this study is to examine the effect of military expenditure and conflict on per capita GDP growth rate in Sri Lanka from 1973 to 2014 using the Solow growth model and ARDL bounds test approach. The results of the bounds test are highly significant and lead to cointegration. The negative and significant coefficients of the error correction term illustrate the expected convergence process in the long-run dynamic of per capita GDP. The estimated empirical results show that, the coefficients of military expenditure and conflict are negative and statistically significant in the short-run as well as in the long-run in determining per capita GDP growth rate in Sri Lanka. Hence, it is critically important to take necessary action to decrease military expenditure and provide an efficient political solution to the problem of minorities, specifically in the post-war period.

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Analyzing and management of health care expenditure and gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate by adaptive neuro-fuzzy technique

Computers in Human Behavior ◽

10.1016/j.chb.2016.07.052 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 64 ◽

pp. 524-530 ◽

Cited By ~ 8

Author(s):

Igor Mladenović ◽

Miloš Milovančević ◽

Svetlana Sokolov Mladenović ◽

Vladislav Marjanović ◽

Biljana Petković

Keyword(s):

Health Care ◽

Growth Rate ◽

Gross Domestic Product ◽

Health Care Expenditure ◽

Domestic Product ◽

Gdp Growth ◽

Gdp Growth Rate ◽

Neuro Fuzzy

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Assessment of the ripple effects and spatial heterogeneity of total losses in the capital of China after a great catastrophic shock

Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ◽

10.5194/nhess-17-367-2017 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 17 (3) ◽

pp. 367-379 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Zhengtao Zhang ◽

Ning Li ◽

Wei Xie ◽

Yu Liu ◽

Jieling Feng ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Growth Rate ◽

Spatial Heterogeneity ◽

Economic Loss ◽

Gdp Growth ◽

Ripple Effect ◽

Ripple Effects ◽

Gdp Growth Rate ◽

Direct Economic Loss ◽

Indirect Economic Loss ◽

Development Levels

Abstract. The total losses caused by natural disasters have spatial heterogeneity due to the different economic development levels inside the disaster-hit areas. This paper uses scenarios of direct economic loss to introduce the sectors' losses caused by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (2008 WCE) in Beijing, utilizing the Adaptive Regional Input–Output (ARIO) model and the Inter-regional ripple effect (IRRE) model. The purpose is to assess the ripple effects of indirect economic loss and spatial heterogeneity of both direct and indirect economic loss at the scale of the smallest administrative divisions of China (streets, villages, and towns). The results indicate that the district of Beijing with the most severe indirect economic loss is the Chaoyang District; the finance and insurance industry (15, see Table 1) of Chaowai Street suffers the most in the Chaoyang District, which is 1.46 times that of its direct economic loss. During 2008–2014, the average annual GDP (gross domestic product) growth rate of Beijing was decreased 3.63 % by the catastrophe. Compared with the 8 % of GDP growth rate target, the decreasing GDP growth rate is a significant and noticeable economic impact, and it can be efficiently mitigated by increasing rescue effort and by supporting the industries which are located in the seriously damaged regions.

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Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on GDP Growth Rate in India: Analysis of the New Millennium

Innovation, Technology, and Market Ecosystems ◽

10.1007/978-3-030-23010-4_11 ◽

2019 ◽

pp. 223-239

Author(s):

Pooja Gupta ◽

Vikku Aggarwal ◽

Karan Champaneri ◽

Kritika Narayan

Keyword(s):

Growth Rate ◽

Foreign Direct Investment ◽

Direct Investment ◽

Gdp Growth ◽

Gdp Growth Rate ◽

New Millennium

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The Relationship between Current Account Deficits and Growth in Montenegro: ARDL Bounds Testing Approach

Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice ◽

10.2478/jcbtp-2018-0020 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 7 (3) ◽

pp. 5-24 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Mustafa Özer ◽

Jovana Žugić ◽

Sonja Tomaš-Miskin

Keyword(s):

Growth Rate ◽

Current Account ◽

Current Account Deficit ◽

Gdp Growth ◽

Bounds Testing ◽

Current Account Deficits ◽

Long Run ◽

Gdp Growth Rate ◽

Short Run ◽

The Relationship

Abstract In this study, we investigate the relationship between current account deficits and growth in Montenegro by applying the bounds testing (ARDL) approach to co-integration for the period from the third quarter of 2011 to the last quarter of 2016. The bounds tests suggest that the variables of interest are bound together in the long run when growth is the dependent variable. The results also confirm a bidirectional long run and short run causal relationship between current account deficits and growth. The short run results mostly indicate a negative relationship between changes in the current account deficit GDP ratio and the GDP growth rate. This means that any increase of the value of independent variable (current account deficit GDP ratio) will result in decrease of the rate of GDP growth and vice versa. The long-run effect of the current account deficit to GDP ratio on GDP growth is positive. The constant (β0) is positive but also the (β1), meaning that with the increase of CAD GDP ratio of 1 measuring unit, the GDP growth rate would grow by 0,5459. This positive and tight correlation could be explained by overlapping structure of the constituents of CAD and the drivers of GDP growth (such as tourism, energy sector, agriculture etc.). The results offer new perspectives and insights for new policy aiming for sustainable economic growth of Montenegro.

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INNOVATION EFFECT THROUGH RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN 35 OECD COUNTRIES

Journal on Innovation and Sustainability RISUS ISSN 2179-3565 ◽

10.23925/2179-3565.2020v11i4p159-166 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (4) ◽

pp. 159-166

Author(s):

Maman Ali M. Moustapha ◽

Qian Yu

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Growth Rate ◽

Research And Development ◽

Regression Model ◽

Oecd Countries ◽

Multiple Regression Model ◽

Gdp Growth ◽

Real Gdp ◽

Gdp Growth Rate ◽

Development Expenditure

This paper analyzes the effect of research and development (R&D) expenditures on economic growth in the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries over the period 2000-2016. This study conducts an empirical analysis using a multiple regression model. The main findings confirm that an increase in research and development expenditure by 1% would generate an increase of real GDP growth rate to 2.83 %. The implication emerging from this study is that government and institutions need to increase investment in R&D expenditures to fulfill inclusive economic growth perspective.

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Assessing the Fiscal Sustainability of Government Finances in European Countries

Lietuvos statistikos darbai ◽

10.15388/ljs.2013.13927 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 52 (1) ◽

pp. 87-93

Author(s):

Yuriy Melnykov

Keyword(s):

Growth Rate ◽

Time Series ◽

Interest Rate ◽

Unit Root ◽

Statistical Approach ◽

Fiscal Sustainability ◽

European Countries ◽

Gdp Growth ◽

Gdp Growth Rate

This paper analyses the fiscal sustainability of government finances in the 27 EU countries and Norway using an empirical, statistical approach and ADF tests for a unit root in the time series of the differences between the GDP growth rate and the long-term interest rate, and the primary balance.

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DRIVERS OF ILLIQUIDITY IN THE ASEAN SOVEREIGN BOND MARKET

Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan ◽

10.21098/bemp.v23i4.1453 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 23 (4) ◽

pp. 501-524

Author(s):

Harald Kinateder ◽

Robert Bauer ◽

Niklas Wagner

Keyword(s):

Growth Rate ◽

Bond Market ◽

Gdp Growth ◽

Bond Markets ◽

Policy Uncertainty ◽

Yield Curves ◽

Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽

Sovereign Bond ◽

Gdp Growth Rate ◽

Sovereign Bond Markets

We study illiquidity in ASEAN-5 sovereign bond markets from 2008 to 2019 by using an illiquidity measure, which is based on a proxy of the amount of arbitrage capital available in sovereign bond markets. Our analysis identifies three drivers of illiquidity in Singapore, namely economic policy uncertainty, the default spread and the GDP growth rate. In contrast, liquidity of all other markets is mostly not characterized by economic drivers. It appears that overall liquidity is lower in the markets outside Singapore and therefore deviations in these yield curves are higher on average and arbitrage eliminates larger deviations not immediately but in a delayed manner.

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Applying the Fama and French three-factor model to analyze risk/reward in the Spanish REITs: an ARDL approach

Journal of European Real Estate Research ◽

10.1108/jerer-11-2019-0043 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽

Author(s):

Zhenyu Su ◽

Paloma Taltavull

Keyword(s):

Growth Rate ◽

Factor Model ◽

Explanatory Power ◽

Gdp Growth ◽

Size Factor ◽

Content Type ◽

Gdp Growth Rate ◽

Fama And French ◽

Three Factor

Purpose This paper aims to analyse the risk and excess returns of the Spanish real estate investment trusts (S-REITs) using various methods, though focusing primarily on the Fama-French three-factor (FF3) model, over the period from 2007Q3 to 2017Q2. Design/methodology/approach The autoregressive distributed lag model is used for the empirical analysis to test long-term stable relationships between variables. Findings The findings indicate that the FF3 model is suitable for the S-REITs market, better explaining the S-REITs’ returns variation than the traditional single-index capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and the Carhart four-factor model. The empirical evidence is reasonably consistent with the FF3 model; the values for the market, size and value are highly statistically significant over the analysis period, with 68.7% variation in S-REITs’ returns explained by the model. In the long run, the market factor has less explanatory power than the size and value factors; the positive long-term multiplier of the size factor indicates that small S-REIT companies have higher returns, along with higher risk, while the negative multiplier of the value indicator suggests that S-REITs portfolios prefer to allocate growth REITs with low book-to-market ratios. The empirical findings from a modified FF3 model, which additionally incorporates Spain’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate, two consumer price index (CPI) macro-factors and three dummy variables, indicates that GDP growth rate and CPI also affect S-REITs’ yields, while investment funds with capital calls have a small influence on S-REITs’ returns. Practical implications The regression results of the standard and extended FF3 model can help researchers understand S-REITs’ risk and return through a general stock pattern. Potential investors are given more information to consider the new Spanish investment vehicle before making a decision. Originality/value The paper uses standard techniques but applies them for the first time to the S-REIT market.

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