scholarly journals Monitoring and Forecasting COVID-19: Heuristic Regression, Susceptible-Infected-Removed Model and, Spatial Stochastic

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
Author(s):  
P.L. de Andres ◽  
L. de Andres-Bragado ◽  
L. Hoessly
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Lognormal Distribution ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Inflexion Point ◽  
Policy Decisions ◽  
Monitoring And Forecasting ◽  
Free Parameters ◽  
Similar Accuracy

The COVID-19 pandemic has had worldwide devastating effects on human lives, highlighting the need for tools to predict its development. The dynamics of such public-health threats can often be efficiently analyzed through simple models that help to make quantitative timely policy decisions. We benchmark a minimal version of a Susceptible-Infected-Removed model for infectious diseases (SIR) coupled with a simple least-squares Statistical Heuristic Regression (SHR) based on a lognormal distribution. We derive the three free parameters for both models in several cases and test them against the amount of data needed to bring accuracy in predictions. The SHR model is ≈±2% accurate about 20 days past the second inflexion point in the daily curve of cases, while the SIR model reaches a similar accuracy a fortnight before. All the analyzed cases assert the utility of SHR and SIR approximants as a valuable tool to forecast the disease’s evolution. Finally, we have studied simulated stochastic individual-based SIR dynamics, which yields a detailed spatial and temporal view of the disease that cannot be given by SIR or SHR methods.

scholarly journals Spread of Epidemic Disease on Edge-Weighted Graphs from a Database: A Case Study of COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (9) ◽  
pp. 4432
Author(s):  
Ronald Manríquez ◽  
Camilo Guerrero-Nancuante ◽  
Felipe Martínez ◽  
Carla Taramasco
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Preventive Measures ◽  
Weighted Graph ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Weighted Graphs ◽  
Epidemic Disease ◽  
The Real

The understanding of infectious diseases is a priority in the field of public health. This has generated the inclusion of several disciplines and tools that allow for analyzing the dissemination of infectious diseases. The aim of this manuscript is to model the spreading of a disease in a population that is registered in a database. From this database, we obtain an edge-weighted graph. The spreading was modeled with the classic SIR model. The model proposed with edge-weighted graph allows for identifying the most important variables in the dissemination of epidemics. Moreover, a deterministic approximation is provided. With database COVID-19 from a city in Chile, we analyzed our model with relationship variables between people. We obtained a graph with 3866 vertices and 6,841,470 edges. We fitted the curve of the real data and we have done some simulations on the obtained graph. Our model is adjusted to the spread of the disease. The model proposed with edge-weighted graph allows for identifying the most important variables in the dissemination of epidemics, in this case with real data of COVID-19. This valuable information allows us to also include/understand the networks of dissemination of epidemics diseases as well as the implementation of preventive measures of public health. These findings are important in COVID-19’s pandemic context.

Fusion Protein Targeted Antiviral Peptides: Fragment-Based Drug Design (FBDD) Guided Rational Design of Dipeptides Against SARS-CoV-2

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (10) ◽  
pp. 938-947
Author(s):  
Sounik Manna ◽  
Trinath Chowdhury ◽  
Piyush Baindara ◽  
Santi M. Mandal
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Drug Design ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Fusion Protein ◽  
Fusion Process ◽  
Viral Fusion ◽  
Enveloped Viruses ◽  
Antiviral Peptides ◽  
Target Sites ◽  
Tract Infections

: Infectious diseases caused by viruses have become a serious public health issue in the recent past, including the current pandemic situation of COVID-19. Enveloped viruses are most commonly known to cause emerging and recurring infectious diseases. Viral and cell membrane fusion is the major key event in the case of enveloped viruses that is required for their entry into the cell. Viral fusion proteins play an important role in the fusion process and in infection establishment. Because of this, the fusion process targeting antivirals become an interest to fight against viral diseases caused by the enveloped virus. Lower respiratory tract infections casing viruses like influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) are examples of such enveloped viruses that are at the top in public health issues. Here, we summarized the viral fusion protein targeted antiviral peptides along with their mechanism and specific design to combat the viral fusion process. The pandemic COVID-19, severe respiratory syndrome disease is an outbreak worldwide. There are no definitive drugs yet, but few are in on-going trials. Here, an approach of fragmentbased drug design (FBDD) methodology is used to identify the broad spectrum agent target to the conserved region of fusion protein of SARS CoV-2. Three dipeptides (DL, LQ and ID) were chosen from the library and designed by the systematic combination along with their possible modifications of amino acids to the target sites. Designed peptides were docked with targeted fusion protein after energy minimization. Results show strong and significant binding affinity (DL = -60.1 kcal/mol; LQ = - 62.8 kcal/mol; ID= -71.5 kcal/mol) during interaction. Anyone of the active peptides from the developed libraries may help to block the target sites competitively to successfully control COVID-19.

Biosecurity and Public Health Ethics Issues Raised by Biological Threats

2019 ◽  
pp. 773-785
Author(s):  
Nicholas Evans ◽  
Thomas Inglesby
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Resource Allocation ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Ethical Issues ◽  
Emerging Infectious Diseases ◽  
Biological Weapon ◽  
Ethical Values ◽  
Dual Use ◽  
Health Concerns ◽  
Trade Offs

This chapter introduces ethical issues that arise in the context of biosecurity: policies and actions intended to prevent the development or emergence, or mitigate the consequences, of serious biological threats. These threats could include deliberate biological weapon attacks (bioterrorism), pandemics, emerging infectious diseases, or major laboratory accidents. The basic values that underpin these public health concerns are first introduced. Ethical issues that arise before, during, and following a biosecurity crisis are then examined, including issues of resource allocation, dual-use research, and the possibility of quarantine. Their resolution requires trade-offs among different ethical values, including utility, fairness, and liberty.

Communicable and Other Infectious Diseases

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Markus Frischhut
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
European Union ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Eu Law ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Ethical Perspective ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
Environment Agency ◽  
And Control

This chapter discusses the most important features of EU law on infectious diseases. Communicable diseases not only cross borders, they also often require measures that cross different areas of policy because of different vectors for disease transmission. The relevant EU law cannot be attributed to one sectoral policy only, and thus various EU agencies participate in protecting public health. The key agency is the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. Other important agencies include the European Environment Agency; European Food Safety Authority; and the Consumers, Health, Agriculture and Food Executive Agency. However, while integration at the EU level has facilitated protection of the public's health, it also has created potential conflicts among the different objectives of the European Union. The internal market promotes the free movement of products, but public health measures can require restrictions of trade. Other conflicts can arise if protective public health measures conflict with individual human rights. The chapter then considers risk assessment and the different tools of risk management used in dealing with the challenges of infectious diseases. It also turns to the external and ethical perspective and the role the European Union takes in global health.

scholarly journals Ocular manifestations of emerging viral diseases

Eye ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ashwin Venkatesh ◽  
Ravi Patel ◽  
Simran Goyal ◽  
Timothy Rajaratnam ◽  
Anant Sharma ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Influenza A ◽  
Emerging Infectious Diseases ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Viral Diseases ◽  
Valley Fever ◽  
Ocular Manifestations ◽  
Influenza A H1n1 ◽  
Emerging Viral Diseases

AbstractEmerging infectious diseases (EIDs) are an increasing threat to public health on a global scale. In recent times, the most prominent outbreaks have constituted RNA viruses, spreading via droplets (COVID-19 and Influenza A H1N1), directly between humans (Ebola and Marburg), via arthropod vectors (Dengue, Zika, West Nile, Chikungunya, Crimean Congo) and zoonotically (Lassa fever, Nipah, Rift Valley fever, Hantaviruses). However, specific approved antiviral therapies and vaccine availability are scarce, and public health measures remain critical. Patients can present with a spectrum of ocular manifestations. Emerging infectious diseases should therefore be considered in the differential diagnosis of ocular inflammatory conditions in patients inhabiting or returning from endemic territories, and more general vigilance is advisable in the context of a global pandemic. Eye specialists are in a position to facilitate swift diagnosis, improve clinical outcomes, and contribute to wider public health efforts during outbreaks. This article reviews those emerging viral diseases associated with reports of ocular manifestations and summarizes details pertinent to practicing eye specialists.

scholarly journals Vaccination knowledge, attitudes and practices in patients with HIV: a cross-sectional survey

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽  
Author(s):  
S Rousset ◽  
G Voglino ◽  
E Boietti ◽  
A Corradi ◽  
M R Gualano ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Health System ◽  
Vaccination Coverage ◽  
Public Health System ◽  
Cross Sectional Survey ◽  
Hiv Patients ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Contagion Risk ◽  
High Level

Abstract Background Infectious diseases are more common and severe in patients with HIV, which show different response to vaccines and a diminished protection. It is therefore very important to assess knowledge and attitudes towards vaccination in people with HIV, since precise vaccination coverage and vaccine hesitancy are not well established in this subgroup of patients. Methods A sample of 119 patients with HIV completed a cross-sectional survey. Patients were recruited during their routine medical examination at the infectious diseases clinic in Turin. The survey explored these main areas: demographics and history of HIV infection, vaccination history, attitudes towards vaccination, confidence in the public health system, contagion risk and disease seriousness perception. In this preliminary phase descriptive analysis were conducted. Results Preliminary data show that mean age of the participants was 49.51 years, 80% were males. The median of HIV infection duration was 10 years, while the median of the lymphocyte count was 762.50 cells/mm3. The disease with the highest vaccination coverage was tetanus (88.7%), considered a serious or very serious disease by 85.6% of the participants, despite low or very low contagion risk perception (84.1%). The disease with the lowest vaccination coverage was Herpes Zoster (7.3%), despite high or very high seriousness perception (70%). Furthermore, 99.1% of the participants showed high or very high confidence toward public health system professionals, and the majority of them (59.5%) stated that vaccines are more useful for the community than for the single person. Conclusions Vaccination coverage is still not fully satisfactory regarding diseases considered infrequent or mild. Considering the high level of confidence toward the public health system that has emerged, it is necessary to implement informative and operative strategies about vaccination for European HIV patients, which are particularly at risk regarding infectious diseases. Key messages Vaccination coverage and risk perception in HIV patients is not satisfactory for many diseases and an effort to implement informative strategies in Europe is needed. The role of vaccination in preventing infectious diseases in HIV patients should be recognized and strengthened by relying on the high level of confidence toward European public health systems.

Tuberculosis and notifiable skin diseases amongst a representative cohort of refugees in Germany (2014–16)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick D Dissmann ◽  
Felix Koehring ◽  
Florian Fischer
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Skin Diseases ◽  
Absolute Number ◽  
Federal State ◽  
Head Lice ◽  
Public Health Burden ◽  
Health Burden ◽  
Representative Cohort ◽  
Screening Result

Abstract Until now, systematic surveillance for infectious diseases in refugees is still missing. For that reason, this study aims at illustrating the prevalence of tuberculosis (TB) and notifiable skin diseases in a representative cohort of refugees in Lippe, a district of the federal state of North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany. We collected data on notifiable communicable diseases (TB, scabies, and head lice) from refugees (n = 8946) based on a medical screening after their arrival from October 2014 until May 2016. Data were analysed using descriptive and bivariate methods. Overall, we found 63 of 8764 screened refugees to have an abnormal TB screening result (0.72%). Of 8946 screened refugees, only 51 individuals were found to have scabies (0.57%) and a further 49 were tested positive for head lice (0.55%). The absolute number of TB cases indicate only a moderate public health burden. However, communicable skin diseases can become a problem in crowded holding camps, where they can cause local outbreaks.

Preparedness 3.0: Addressing the Future

2015 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 728-729 ◽  
Author(s):  
Georges C. Benjamin
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Climate Change ◽  
Social Media ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Common Occurrence ◽  
Public Health Preparedness ◽  
Public Health Emergencies ◽  
State Sponsorship ◽  
The Future

ABSTRACTThe last 14 years has taught us that that we are facing a new reality; a reality in which public health emergencies are a common occurrence. Today, we live in a world with dangerous people without state sponsorship who are an enormous threat to our safety; one where emerging and reemerging infectious diseases are waiting to break out; a world where the benefits of globalization in trade, transportation, and social media brings threats to our communities faster and with a greater risk than ever before. Even climate change has entered into the preparedness equation, bringing with it the forces of nature in the form of extreme weather and its complications. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2015;9:728–729)

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