scholarly journals Using Machine Learning to Make Computationally Inexpensive Projections of 21st Century Stratospheric Column Ozone Changes in the Tropics

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
James Keeble ◽  
Yu Yeung Scott Yiu ◽  
Alexander T. Archibald ◽  
Fiona O’Connor ◽  
Alistair Sellar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Earth System Model ◽  
System Model ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Lasso Regression ◽  
Column Ozone ◽  
The Tropics

Stratospheric ozone projections in the tropics, modeled using the UKESM1 Earth system model, are explored under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Consistent with other studies, it is found that tropical stratospheric column ozone does not return to 1980s values by the end of the 21st century under any SSP scenario as increased ozone mixing ratios in the tropical upper stratosphere are offset by continued ozone decreases in the tropical lower stratosphere. Stratospheric column ozone is projected to be largest under SSP scenarios with the smallest change in radiative forcing, and smallest for SSP scenarios with larger radiative forcing, consistent with a faster Brewer-Dobson circulation at high greenhouse gas loadings. This study explores the use of machine learning (ML) techniques to make accurate, computationally inexpensive projections of tropical stratospheric column ozone. Four ML techniques are investigated: Ridge regression, Lasso regression, Random Forests and Extra Trees. All four techniques investigated here are able to make projections of future tropical stratospheric column ozone which agree well with those made by the UKESM1 Earth system model, often falling within the ensemble spread of UKESM1 simulations for a broad range of SSPs. However, all techniques struggle to make accurate projects for the final decades of the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Accurate projections can only be achieved when the ML methods are trained on sufficient data, including both historical and future simulations. When trained only on historical data, the projections made using models based on ML techniques fail to accurately predict tropical stratospheric ozone changes. Results presented here indicate that, when sufficiently trained, ML models have the potential to make accurate, computationally inexpensive projections of tropical stratospheric column ozone. Further development of these models may reduce the computational burden placed on fully coupled chemistry-climate and Earth system models and enable the exploration of tropical stratospheric column ozone recovery under a much broader range of future emissions scenarios.

scholarly journals Evaluation of the interactive stratospheric ozone (O3v2 module) for the E3SM version 2 Earth System Model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qi Tang ◽  
Michael J. Prather ◽  
Juno Hsu ◽  
Daniel J. Ruiz ◽  
Philip J. Cameron-Smith ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Earth System Model ◽  
System Model ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Heating Rates ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Column Ozone ◽  
The University

Abstract. Stratospheric ozone affects climate directly as the predominant heat source in the stratosphere and indirectly through chemical feedbacks controlling other greenhouse gases. The U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1) implemented a new ozone chemistry module that improves the simulation of the sharp tropopause gradients, replacing a version based partly on long-term average climatologies that poorly represented heating rates in the lowermost stratosphere. The new O3v2 module extends seamlessly into the troposphere and preserves the naturally sharp cross-tropopause gradient, with 20-40% less ozone in this region. Additionally, O3v2 enables the diagnosis of stratosphere-troposphere exchange flux of ozone, a key budget term lacking in E3SMv1. Here, we evaluate key features in ozone abundance and other closely related quantities in atmosphere-only E3SMv1 simulations driven by observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs, years 1990-2014), comparing with satellite observations and the University of California, Irvine chemistry transport model (UCI CTM) using the same stratospheric chemistry scheme but driven by European Centre forecast fields for the same period. In terms of stratospheric column ozone, O3v2 shows improved mean bias and northern mid-latitude variability, but not quite as good as the UCI CTM. As expected, SST forcing does not match the observed quasi-biennial oscillation, which is mostly matched with the UCI CTM. This new O3v2 E3SM model retains mostly the same climate state and climate sensitivity as the previous version, and we recommend its use for other climate models that still use ozone climatologies.

scholarly journals Evaluation of the interactive stratospheric ozone (O3v2) module in the E3SM version 1 Earth system model

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 1219-1236
Author(s):  
Qi Tang ◽  
Michael J. Prather ◽  
Juno Hsu ◽  
Daniel J. Ruiz ◽  
Philip J. Cameron-Smith ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Earth System Model ◽  
System Model ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Heating Rates ◽  
Column Ozone ◽  
The University

Abstract. Stratospheric ozone affects climate directly as the predominant heat source in the stratosphere and indirectly through chemical reactions controlling other greenhouse gases. The U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1) implemented a new ozone chemistry module that improves the simulation of the sharp tropopause gradients, replacing a version based partly on long-term average climatologies that poorly represented heating rates in the lowermost stratosphere. The new O3v2 module extends seamlessly into the troposphere and preserves the naturally sharp cross-tropopause gradient, with 20 %–40 % less ozone in this region. Additionally, O3v2 enables the diagnosis of stratosphere–troposphere exchange flux of ozone, a key budget term lacking in E3SMv1. Here, we evaluate key features in ozone abundance and other closely related quantities in atmosphere-only E3SMv1 simulations driven by observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs, years 1990–2014), comparing them with satellite observations of ozone and also with the University of California, Irvine chemistry transport model (UCI CTM) using the same stratospheric chemistry scheme but driven by European Centre forecast fields for the same period. In terms of stratospheric column ozone, O3v2 shows reduced mean bias and improved northern midlatitude variability, but it is not quite as good as the UCI CTM. As expected, SST-forced E3SMv1 simulations cannot synchronize with observed quasi-biennial oscillations (QBOs), but they do show the typical QBO pattern seen in column ozone. This new O3v2 E3SMv1 model mostly retains the same climate state and climate sensitivity as the previous version, and we recommend its use for other climate models that still use ozone climatologies.

scholarly journals Anthropogenic changes in the surface all-sky UV-B radiation through 1850–2005 simulated by an Earth system model

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 5249-5257 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Watanabe ◽  
T. Takemura ◽  
K. Sudo ◽  
T. Yokohata ◽  
H. Kawase
Keyword(s):  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Earth System Model ◽  
System Model ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Total Change ◽  
Anthropogenic Changes ◽  
Ozone Transport ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
Solar Ultraviolet

Abstract. The historical anthropogenic change in the surface all-sky UV-B (solar ultraviolet: 280–315 nm) radiation through 1850–2005 is evaluated using an Earth system model. Responses of UV-B dose to anthropogenic changes in ozone and aerosols are separately evaluated using a series of historical simulations including/excluding these changes. Increases in these air pollutants cause reductions in UV-B transmittance, which occur gradually/rapidly before/after 1950 in and downwind of industrial and deforestation regions. Furthermore, changes in ozone transport in the lower stratosphere, which is induced by increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, increase ozone concentration in the extratropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. These transient changes work to decrease the amount of UV-B reaching the Earth's surface, counteracting the well-known effect increasing UV-B due to stratospheric ozone depletion, which developed rapidly after ca. 1980. As a consequence, the surface UV-B radiation change between 1850 and 2000 is negative in the tropics and NH extratropics and positive in the SH extratropics. Comparing the contributions of ozone and aerosol changes to the UV-B change, the transient change in ozone absorption of UV-B mainly determines the total change in the surface UV-B radiation at most locations. On the other hand, the aerosol direct and indirect effects on UV-B play an equally important role to that of ozone in the NH mid-latitudes and tropics. A typical example is East Asia (25° N–60° N and 120° E–150° E), where the effect of aerosols (ca. 70%) dominates the total UV-B change.

scholarly journals Anthropogenic changes in the surface all-sky UV-B radiation through 1850–2005 simulated by an Earth system model

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 4221-4242
Author(s):  
S. Watanabe ◽  
T. Takemura ◽  
K. Sudo ◽  
T. Yokohata ◽  
H. Kawase
Keyword(s):  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Earth System Model ◽  
System Model ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Total Change ◽  
Anthropogenic Changes ◽  
Ozone Transport ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
Solar Ultraviolet

Abstract. The historical anthropogenic change in the surface all-sky UV-B (solar ultraviolet: 280–315 nm) radiation through 1850–2005 is evaluated using an Earth system model. Responses of UV-B dose to anthropogenic changes in ozone and aerosols are separately evaluated using a series of historical simulations including/excluding these changes. Increases in these air pollutants cause reductions in UV-B transmittance, which occur gradually/rapidly before/after 1950 in and downwind of industrial and deforestation regions. Furthermore, changes in ozone transport in the lower stratosphere, which is induced by increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, increase ozone concentration in the extratropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. These transient changes work to decrease the amount of UV-B reaching the Earth's surface, counteracting the well-known effect increasing UV-B due to stratospheric ozone depletion, which developed rapidly after ca. 1980. As a consequence, the surface all-sky UV-B radiation change between 1850 and 2000 is negative in the tropics and NH extratropics and positive in the SH extratropics. Comparing the contributions of ozone and aerosol changes to the UV-B change, the transient change in ozone absorption of UV-B mainly determines the total change in the surface all-sky UV-B radiation at most locations. On the other hand, the aerosol direct and indirect effects on UV-B play an equally important role to that of ozone in the NH mid-latitudes and tropics. A typical example is East Asia (25° N–60° N and 120° E–150° E), where the effect of aerosols (ca. 70%) dominates the total UV-B change.

scholarly journals The Toba supervolcano eruption caused severe tropical stratospheric ozone depletion

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergey Osipov ◽  
Georgiy Stenchikov ◽  
Kostas Tsigaridis ◽  
Allegra N. LeGrande ◽  
Susanne E. Bauer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ozone Depletion ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
System Model ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Sulfate Aerosols ◽  
Winter Conditions ◽  
Attenuation Mechanism ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
Sulfur Emissions

AbstractSupervolcano eruptions have occurred throughout Earth’s history and have major environmental impacts. These impacts are mostly associated with the attenuation of visible sunlight by stratospheric sulfate aerosols, which causes cooling and deceleration of the water cycle. Supereruptions have been assumed to cause so-called volcanic winters that act as primary evolutionary factors through ecosystem disruption and famine, however, winter conditions alone may not be sufficient to cause such disruption. Here we use Earth system model simulations to show that stratospheric sulfur emissions from the Toba supereruption 74,000 years ago caused severe stratospheric ozone loss through a radiation attenuation mechanism that only moderately depends on the emission magnitude. The Toba plume strongly inhibited oxygen photolysis, suppressing ozone formation in the tropics, where exceptionally depleted ozone conditions persisted for over a year. This effect, when combined with volcanic winter in the extra-tropics, can account for the impacts of supereruptions on ecosystems and humanity.

scholarly journals Emergence of multiple ocean ecosystem drivers in a large ensemble suite with an Earth system model

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 3301-3320 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. B. Rodgers ◽  
J. Lin ◽  
T. L. Frölicher
Keyword(s):  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Marine Ecosystem ◽  
Marine Ecosystems ◽  
Earth System Model ◽  
System Model ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Biological Productivity ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
Ecosystem Drivers

Abstract. Marine ecosystems are increasingly stressed by human-induced changes. Marine ecosystem drivers that contribute to stressing ecosystems – including warming, acidification, deoxygenation and perturbations to biological productivity – can co-occur in space and time, but detecting their trends is complicated by the presence of noise associated with natural variability in the climate system. Here we use large initial-condition ensemble simulations with an Earth system model under a historical/RCP8.5 (representative concentration pathway 8.5) scenario over 1950–2100 to consider emergence characteristics for the four individual and combined drivers. Using a 1-standard-deviation (67% confidence) threshold of signal to noise to define emergence with a 30-year trend window, we show that ocean acidification emerges much earlier than other drivers, namely during the 20th century over most of the global ocean. For biological productivity, the anthropogenic signal does not emerge from the noise over most of the global ocean before the end of the 21st century. The early emergence pattern for sea surface temperature in low latitudes is reversed from that of subsurface oxygen inventories, where emergence occurs earlier in the Southern Ocean. For the combined multiple-driver field, 41% of the global ocean exhibits emergence for the 2005–2014 period, and 63% for the 2075–2084 period. The combined multiple-driver field reveals emergence patterns by the end of this century that are relatively high over much of the Southern Ocean, North Pacific, and Atlantic, but relatively low over the tropics and the South Pacific. For the case of two drivers, the tropics including habitats of coral reefs emerges earliest, with this driven by the joint effects of acidification and warming. It is precisely in the regions with pronounced emergence characteristics where marine ecosystems may be expected to be pushed outside of their comfort zone determined by the degree of natural background variability to which they are adapted. The results underscore the importance of sustained multi-decadal observing systems for monitoring multiple ecosystems drivers.

scholarly journals Stratospheric ozone in the post-CFC era

2008 ◽  
Vol 8 (6) ◽  
pp. 20223-20237 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Li ◽  
R. S. Stolarski ◽  
P. A. Newman
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Crucial Role ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Advective Transport ◽  
Recent Past ◽  
Column Ozone ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract. Vertical and latitudinal changes in the stratospheric ozone in the post-chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) era are investigated using simulations of the recent past and the 21st century with a coupled chemistry-climate model. Model results reveal that, in the 2060s when the stratospheric halogen loading is projected to return to its 1980 values, the extratropical column ozone is significantly higher than that in 1975–1984, but the tropical column ozone does not recover to 1980 values. Upper and lower stratospheric ozone changes in the post-CFC era have very different patterns. Above 15 hPa ozone increases almost latitudinally uniformly by 6 Dobson Unit (DU), whereas below 15 hPa ozone decreases in the tropics by 8 DU and increases in the extratropics by up to 16 DU. The upper stratospheric ozone increase is a photochemical response to greenhouse gas induced strong cooling, and the lower stratospheric ozone changes are consistent with enhanced mean advective transport due to a stronger Brewer-Dobson circulation. The model results suggest that the strengthening of the Brewer-Dobson circulation plays a crucial role in ozone recovery and ozone distributions in the post-CFC era.

Investigating model nudging as a novel technique to isolate aerosol radiative adjustment mechanisms

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Max Coleman ◽  
William Collins ◽  
Keith Shine ◽  
Nicolas Bellouin ◽  
Fiona O'Connor
Keyword(s):  
Black Carbon ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Potential Temperature ◽  
Atmospheric Temperature ◽  
Earth System Model ◽  
System Model ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Aerosol Emission ◽  
Aerosol Emissions ◽  
Adjustment Mechanisms

<p>We investigate a novel use of model nudging to interrogate radiative rapid adjustment mechanisms and their magnitudes in response to aerosol emission perturbations in an earth system model. The radiative effects of a forcing agent can be quantified using the effective radiative forcing (ERF). ERF is the sum of the instantaneous radiative forcing, and radiative adjustments – changes in the atmosphere’s state in response to the initial forcing agent that cause a further radiative forcing. Radiative adjustments are particularly important for aerosols, which affect clouds both via microphysical interactions and changes in circulation, stratification and convection. Understanding the different adjustment mechanisms and their contribution to the total ERF of different aerosol emissions is necessary to better understand how their ERF may change with future changes in anthropogenic aerosol emissions. In this work we investigate radiative adjustments resulting from changes in atmospheric temperature (and the resulting changes in stratification and convection) due to anthropogenic sulphate and black carbon aerosol forcing.</p><p>We have conducted multiple global atmosphere-only time-slice experiments using the UK Earth System Model (UKESM1). Each experiment has either control, black carbon perturbed, or sulphur dioxide perturbed emissions; and either no nudging, nudged horizontal winds (uv), or nudged horizontal winds and potential temperature (uvθ). The difference between nudged uvθ minus nudged uv simulations determines the atmospheric temperature related adjustments arising from the aerosol perturbation. We have also conducted repeats of each simulation, varying the nudging setup to test sensitivity to different nudging parameters.</p><p>We find that nudging horizontal winds affects the resulting ERF very little, whereas nudging potential temperature as well can cause a significant difference from the non-nudged experiments, primarily in the cloud radiative effect. However, this difference is sensitive to the strength of the nudging applied, for which we consider the most appropriate value.</p>

scholarly journals The compact Earth system model OSCAR v2.2: description and first results

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 271-319 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Gasser ◽  
Philippe Ciais ◽  
Olivier Boucher ◽  
Yann Quilcaille ◽  
Maxime Tortora ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Earth System Model ◽  
Tropospheric Chemistry ◽  
System Model ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Atmospheric Concentration ◽  
The Earth

Abstract. This paper provides a comprehensive description of OSCAR v2.2, a simple Earth system model. The general philosophy of development is first explained, followed by a complete description of the model's drivers and various modules. All components of the Earth system necessary to simulate future climate change are represented in the model: the oceanic and terrestrial carbon cycles – including a book-keeping module to endogenously estimate land-use change emissions – so as to simulate the change in atmospheric carbon dioxide; the tropospheric chemistry and the natural wetlands, to simulate that of methane; the stratospheric chemistry, for nitrous oxide; 37 halogenated compounds; changing tropospheric and stratospheric ozone; the direct and indirect effects of aerosols; changes in surface albedo caused by black carbon deposition on snow and land-cover change; and the global and regional response of climate – in terms of temperature and precipitation – to all these climate forcers. Following the probabilistic framework of the model, an ensemble of simulations is made over the historical period (1750–2010). We show that the model performs well in reproducing observed past changes in the Earth system such as increased atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases or increased global mean surface temperature.

scholarly journals The compact Earth system model OSCAR v2.2: description and first results

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Gasser ◽  
Philippe Ciais ◽  
Olivier Boucher ◽  
Yann Quilcaille ◽  
Maxime Tortora ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Earth System Model ◽  
System Model ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Atmospheric Concentration ◽  
Carbon Cycles ◽  
The Earth

Abstract. This paper provides a comprehensive description of OSCAR v2.2, a simple Earth system model. The general philosophy of development is first explained, it is then followed by a complete description of the model's drivers and various modules. All components of the Earth system necessary to simulate future climate change are represented in the model: the oceanic and terrestrial carbon-cycles – including a book-keeping module to endogenously estimate land-use change emissions – so as to simulate the change in atmospheric carbon dioxide; the tropospheric OH chemistry and the natural wetlands, to simulate that of methane; the stratospheric chemistry, for nitrous oxide; thirty-seven halogenated compounds; changing tropospheric and stratospheric ozone; the direct and indirect effects of aerosols; changes in surface albedo caused by black carbon deposition on snow and land-cover change; and the global and regional response of climate – in terms of temperatures and precipitations – to all these climate forcers. Following the probabilistic framework of the model, an ensemble of simulations is made over the historical period (1750–2010). We show that the model performs well in reproducing observed past changes in the Earth system such as increased atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases or increased global mean surface temperature.

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