scholarly journals Environmental Change Threatens Freshwater Insect Communities in Northwest Africa: A Meta-Analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nils Kaczmarek ◽  
Ralf B. Schäfer ◽  
Elisabeth Berger
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Temperature ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Small Body ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Insect Communities ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Temperature Conductivity ◽  
Northwest Africa ◽  
The Impact

A climatic shift from temperate to arid conditions is predicted for Northwest Africa. Water temperature, salinity, and river intermittency are likely to increase, which may impact freshwater communities, ecosystem functioning, and related ecosystem services. Quantitative data and information on the impact of climate change on insect communities (e.g., richness, taxonomic and trait composition) are still scarce for Northwest Africa. In this study, we extracted information on freshwater insect occurrence and environmental variables in Northwest Africa from the results of a literature search to study potential consequences of changing climatic conditions for these communities. Our data set covered 96 families in 165 sites in Morocco and Algeria. We quantified the impact of several explanatoryvariables (climate, altitude, water temperature, conductivity, intermittency, flow, aridity, dams, and land cover) on richness, taxonomic and functional trait composition using negative binomial regression models and constrained ordination. Family richness in arid sites was on average 37 % lower than in temperate sites in association with flow, river regulation, cropland extent, conductivity, altitude, and water temperature. With 36 % of the studied temperate sites predicted to turn arid by the end of the century, a loss of insect families can be predicted for Northwest Africa, mainly affecting species adapted to temperate environments. Resistance and resilience traits such as small body size, aerial dispersal, and air breathing promote survival in arid climates. Future research should report insect occurrences on species level to allow for better predictions on climate change effects.

scholarly journals Association Between Federal Value-Based Incentive Program Implementation and Hospital-Onset C. difficile Infection Rates

2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (S1) ◽  
pp. s133-s133
Author(s):  
Mohammad Alrawashdeh ◽  
Chanu Rhee ◽  
Heather Hsu ◽  
Grace Lee
Keyword(s):  
Program Implementation ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Negative Binomial Regression ◽  
Neutralization Assay ◽  
Nucleic Acid Amplification ◽  
Teaching Hospitals ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Testing Methods ◽  
Toxigenic Culture ◽  
The Impact

Background: The Hospital-Acquired Conditions Reduction Program (HACRP) and Hospital Value-Based Purchasing (HVBP) are federal value-based incentive programs that financially reward or penalize hospitals based on quality metrics. Hospital-onset C. difficile infection (HO-CDI) rates reported to the CDC NHSN became a target quality metric for both HACRP and HVBP in October 2016, but the impact of these programs on HO-CDI rates is unknown. Methods: We used an interrupted time-series design to examine the association between HACRP/HVBP implementation in October 2016 and quarterly rates of HO-CDI per 10,000 patient days among incentive-eligible acute-care hospitals conducting facility-wide HO-CDI NHSN surveillance between January 2013 and March 2019. Generalized estimating equations were used to fit negative binomial regression models to assess for immediate program impact (ie, level change) and changes in the slope of HO-CDI rates, controlling for each hospital’s predominant method for CDI testing (nucleic acid amplification including PCR (NAAT), enzyme immunoassay for toxin (EIA), or other testing method including cell cytotoxicity neutralization assay and toxigenic culture). Results: Of the 265 study hospitals studied, most were medium-sized (100–399 beds, 55%), not-for-profit (77%), teaching hospitals (70%), and were located in a metropolitan area (87%). Compared to EIA, rates of HO-CDI were higher when detected by NAAT (incidence rate ratio [IRR], 1.55; 95% CI, 1.41–1.70) or other testing methods (IRR, 1.47; 95% CI, 1.26–1.71). Controlling for CDI testing methods, HACRP/HVBP implementation was associated with an immediate 6% decline in HO-CDI rates (IRR, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.89–0.99) and a 4% decline in slope per year-quarter thereafter (IRR, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.95–0.97) (Fig. 1). Conclusions: HACRP/HVBP implementation was associated with both immediate and gradual improvements in HO-CDI rates, independent of CDI testing methods of differing sensitivity. Future research may evaluate the precise mechanisms underlying this improvement and if this impact is sustained in the long term.Funding: NoneDisclosures: None

scholarly journals Plant Phenology and Its Anthropogenic and Natural Influencing Factors in Densely Populated Areas During the Economic Transition Period of China

2022 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peijun Ju ◽  
Wenchao Yan ◽  
Jianliang Liu ◽  
Xinwei Liu ◽  
Liangfeng Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Economic Transition ◽  
Transition Period ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Plant Phenology ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Urban Management ◽  
Climate Factors ◽  
Natural Ecosystems ◽  
The Impact

As a sensitive, observable, and comprehensive indicator of climate change, plant phenology has become a vital topic of global change. Studies about plant phenology and its responses to climate change in natural ecosystems have drawn attention to the effects of human activities on phenology in/around urban regions. The key factors and mechanisms of phenological and human factors in the process of urbanization are still unclear. In this study, we analyzed variations in xylophyta phenology in densely populated cities during the fast urbanization period of China (from 1963 to 1988). We assessed the length of the growing season affected by the temperature and precipitation. Temperature increased the length of the growing season in most regions, while precipitation had the opposite effect. Moreover, the plant-growing season is more sensitive to preseason climate factors than to annual average climate factors. The increased population reduced the length of the growing season, while the growing GDP increased the length of the growing season in most regions (8 out of 13). By analyzing the impact of the industry ratio, we found that the correlation between the urban management of emerging cities (e.g., Chongqing, Zhejiang, and Guizhou) and the growing season is more significant, and the impact is substantial. In contrast, urban management in most areas with vigorously developed heavy industry (e.g., Heilongjiang, Liaoning, and Beijing) has a weak and insignificant effect on plant phenology. These results indicate that different urban development patterns can influence urban plant phenology. Our results provide some support and new thoughts for future research on urban plant phenology.

The shifting of climate types: manifestation to phenology and ecosystems structure

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gunta Kalvāne ◽  
Andis Kalvāns ◽  
Agrita Briede ◽  
Ilmārs Krampis ◽  
Dārta Kaupe ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Breaking Point ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Precipitation Regime ◽  
Climate Type ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Spatial Changes ◽  
Temporal And Spatial ◽  
The Impact

<p>According to the Köppen climate classification, almost the entire area of Latvia belongs to the same climate type, Dfb, which is characterized by humid continental climates with warm (sometimes hot) summers and cold winters.  In the last decades whether conditions on the western coast of Latvia more characterized by temperate maritime climates. In this area there has been a transition (and still ongoing) to the climate type Cfb.</p><p>Temporal and spatial changes of temperature and precipitation regime have been examined in whole territory to identify the breaking point of climate type shifts. We used two type of climatological data sets: gridded daily temperature from the E-OBS data set version 21.0e (Cornes et al., 2018) and direct observations from meteorological stations (data source: Latvian Environment, Geology and Meteorology Centre). The temperature and precipitation regime have changed significantly in the last century - seasonal and regional differences can be observed in the territory of Latvia.</p><p>We have digitized and analysed more than 47 thousand phenological records, fixed by volunteers in period 1970-2018. Study has shown that significant seasonal changes have taken place across the Latvian landscape due to climate change (Kalvāne and Kalvāns, 2021). The largest changes have been recorded for the unfolding (BBCH11) and flowering (BBCH61) phase of plants – almost 90% of the data included in the database demonstrate a negative trend. The winter of 1988/1989 may be considered as breaking point, it has been common that many phases have begun sooner (particularly spring phases), while abiotic autumn phases have been characterized by late years.</p><p>Study gives an overview aboutclimate change (also climate type shift) impacts on ecosystems in Latvia, particularly to forest and semi-natural grasslands and temporal and spatial changes of vegetation structure and distribution areas.</p><p>This study was carried out within the framework of the Impact of Climate Change on Phytophenological Phases and Related Risks in the Baltic Region (No. 1.1.1.2/VIAA/2/18/265) ERDF project and the Climate change and sustainable use of natural resources institutional research grant of the University of Latvia (No. AAP2016/B041//ZD2016/AZ03).</p><p>Cornes, R. C., van der Schrier, G., van den Besselaar, E. J. M. and Jones, P. D.: An Ensemble Version of the E-OBS Temperature and Precipitation Data Sets, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 123(17), 9391–9409, doi:10.1029/2017JD028200, 2018.</p><p>Kalvāne, G. and Kalvāns, A.(2021): Phenological trends of multi-taxonomic groups in Latvia, 1970-2018, Int. J. Biometeorol., doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-020-02068-8, 2021.</p>

scholarly journals Separating the Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on Runoff: A Review of Method and Application

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 2201 ◽  
Author(s):  
Feng Zeng ◽  
Ming-Guo Ma ◽  
Dong-Rui Di ◽  
Wei-Yu Shi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Research Methods ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Research Needs ◽  
Relevant Research ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Separating the impact of climate change and human activities on runoff is an important topic in hydrology, and a large number of methods and theories have been widely used. In this paper, we review the current papers on separating the impacts of climate and human activities on runoff, summarize the progress of relevant research methods and applications in recent years, and discuss future research needs and directions.

scholarly journals Climate Change Impact in the Ria de Aveiro Lagoon Ecosystem: A Case Study

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (10) ◽  
pp. 352 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lopes ◽  
Lopes ◽  
Dias
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Temperature ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Inorganic Nitrogen ◽  
Nitrogen Concentration ◽  
Ria De Aveiro ◽  
Global Sea Level ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Aveiro Lagoon

Climate change and global sea-level rise are major issues of the 21st century. The main goal of this study is to assess the physical and biogeochemical status of the Ria de Aveiro lagoon (Portugal) under future climate scenarios, using a coupled physical/ eutrophication model. The impact on the lagoon ecosystem status of the mean sea level rise (MSLR), the amplitude rise of the M2 tidal constituent (M2R), the changes in the river discharge, and the rising of the air temperature was investigated. Under MSLR and M2R, the results point to an overall salinity increase and water temperature decrease, revealing ocean water dominance. The main lagoon areas presented salinity values close to those of the ocean waters (~34 PSU), while a high range of salinity was presented for the river and the far end areas (20–34 PSU). The water temperature showed a decrease of approximately 0.5–1.5 °C. The responses of the biogeochemical variables reflect the increase of the oceanic inflow (transparent and nutrient-poor water) or the reduction of the river flows (nutrient-rich waters). The results evidenced, under the scenarios, an overall decreasing of the inorganic nitrogen concentration and the carbon phytoplankton concentrations. A warm climate, although increasing the water temperature, does not seem to affect the lagoon’s main status, at least in the frame of the model used in the study.

scholarly journals Customer reactions to a webshop’s service quality

Empirica ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 47 (4) ◽  
pp. 699-731
Author(s):  
Franz Hackl ◽  
Rudolf Winter-Ebmer
Keyword(s):  
Service Quality ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Negative Binomial Regression ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Product Categories ◽  
Service Characteristics ◽  
Binomial Regression ◽  
Quality Aspects ◽  
Quality Dimensions ◽  
The Impact

Abstract E-commerce has become an integral part of the world’s economy. In this study we investigate the impact of service quality in e-tailing on site visits and consumer demand. Such an analysis is important given the almost Bertrand-like competitive structure. Our analysis is based on a large representative data set obtained from a price comparison site covering essentially the complete Austrian e-tailing market. Customer evaluations for a broad range of 15 different service characteristics are condensed using factor analysis. Negative binomial regression analysis is used to measure the impact of service quality dimensions on referral requests to online shops for different product categories. Our results show that the most important service quality aspects are those related to the ordering process and the firm’s website performance.

Tropospheric layering of ozone in regions of urbanized complex and/or coastal terrain: a review

2000 ◽  
Vol 24 (3) ◽  
pp. 329-354 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. G. McKendry ◽  
J. Lundgren
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Research Priorities ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Ground Level ◽  
Tropospheric Chemistry ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Rich Data ◽  
The Impact

Exchange of pollutants between the atmospheric boundary layer and free troposphere is an important (yet often neglected) process that tends to produce distinct layers of pollution in the lower troposphere. These layers represent a potential sink for pollutants from the boundary layer, have the potential to be mixed to ground and likely influence tropospheric chemistry and the global climate system. Factors influencing the vertical distribution of ozone in the troposphere are outlined as a prelude to a more specific discussion of elevated layers and myriad meteorological processes responsible for their development. Evidence from a range of geographical settings suggests that these phenomena are ubiquitous. A rich data set from the Lower Fraser Valley, British Columbia, is used to provide an inventory of layer structures and to highlight their diverse origins and histories. Approaches used to assess the impact of down-mixing of pollutants from elevated layers on ground-level concentrations of ozone are outlined and future research priorities recommended.

The Global Warming By Using The Experimental Methods Within Project-Based Learning Approach

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gulperi Selcan Öncü
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Greenhouse Gases ◽  
Water Temperature ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Experimental Methods ◽  
Project Based Learning ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Learning Approaches ◽  
The Impact

<div> <p>In recent times we have often received news such as about melting glaciers, sudden and torrential rain, storms, increased atmospheric temperatures, and forest fires. We have also observed some of these phenomena in our immediate vicinity. There is a frequently used expression among the public, 'the seasons are shifting'. </p> <p>Students have asked the reasons why these changes have been occurring and what about changes between the past and present. In order to understand these changes we all know that they need to understand global warming in the first place. To help them with this as an science teacher I have guided them to be capable of using experimental methods within project-based learning approaches. First they did preliminary literature surveys and then they designed an experiment. In the experiment, they tested the hypothesis that the water inside the bell JAR, which is coated with black cardboard, heats up more than the transparent one. In this way they began to investigate climate change due to greenhouse gases. </p> <p>In the experiment, two bell glasses were used to represent the atmosphere layers. One was intermittently covered with pieces cut out of black cardboard. Black cardboard was used to represent the greenhouse gas due since the black colour absorbs light. Two beakers of the same size were used, filled with water. A thermometer was placed inside and bell jars were turned upside down and put over the beakers. The two thermometers were used to measure the water temperature inside the beakers. </p> <p>The first apparatus is the control group (inside uncovered). The second apparatus is the experimental group (covered with independent black cardboard). In the experimental and observation stage, the independent variable is the bell jar; the dependent variable is the water temperature. The constant variables are the size of the jar, the size of the beaker, the amount of water and the ambient conditions. </p> <p>Having set up the apparatus, the initial temperature of water was measured and recorded. Students carried out the experiment on a sunny day by placing the apparatus in a sun-covered field. They recorded the data in the tables they completed periodically. Then they shared the results with participants at the science festival. </p> <p>In this way they began to investigate the impact of greenhouse gases on climate change.</p> </div>

scholarly journals Evaluative application of UKCP09‐based downscaled future weather years to simulate overheating risk in typical English homes

2013 ◽  
Vol 31 (4) ◽  
pp. 231-252 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rajat Gupta ◽  
Matthew Gregg ◽  
Hu Du ◽  
Katie Williams
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Simulation Modelling ◽  
Simulation Software ◽  
Building Simulation ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Difference

PurposeTo critically compare three future weather year (FWY) downscaling approaches, based on the 2009 UK Climate Projections, used for climate change impact and adaptation analysis in building simulation software.Design/methodology/approachThe validity of these FWYs is assessed through dynamic building simulation modelling to project future overheating risk in typical English homes in 2050s and 2080s.FindingsThe modelling results show that the variation in overheating projections is far too significant to consider the tested FWY data sets equally suitable for the task.Research and practical implicationsIt is recommended that future research should consider harmonisation of the downscaling approaches so as to generate a unified data set of FWYs to be used for a given location and climate projection. If FWY are to be used in practice, live projects will need viable and reliable FWY on which to base their adaptation decisions. The difference between the data sets tested could potentially lead to different adaptation priorities specifically with regard to time series and adaptation phasing through the life of a building.Originality/valueThe paper investigates the different results derived from FWY application to building simulation. The outcome and implications are important considerations for research and practice involved in FWY data use in building simulation intended for climate change adaptation modelling.

An ensemble analysis to predict future habitats of striped marlin (Kajikia audax) in the North Pacific Ocean

2013 ◽  
Vol 70 (5) ◽  
pp. 1013-1022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nan-Jay Su ◽  
Chi-Lu Sun ◽  
André E. Punt ◽  
Su-Zan Yeh ◽  
Gerard DiNardo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Pacific Ocean ◽  
Water Temperature ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
North Pacific Ocean ◽  
Additive Models ◽  
The North ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The North Pacific ◽  
Ensemble Analysis

Abstract Su, N.-J., Sun, C.-L., Punt, A. E., Yeh, S.-Z., DiNardo, G., and Chang, Y.-J. 2013. An ensemble analysis to predict future habitats of striped marlin (Kajikia audax) in the North Pacific Ocean. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 70: 1013–1022. Striped marlin is a highly migratory species distributed throughout the North Pacific Ocean, which shows considerable variation in spatial distribution as a consequence of habitat preference. This species may therefore shift its range in response to future changes in the marine environment driven by climate change. It is important to understand the factors determining the distribution of striped marlin and the influence of climate change on these factors, to develop effective fisheries management policies given the economic importance of the species and the impact of fishing. We examined the spatial patterns and habitat preferences of striped marlin using generalized additive models fitted to data from longline fisheries. Future distributions were predicted using an ensemble analysis, which represents the uncertainty due to several global climate models and greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The increase in water temperature driven by climate change is predicted to lead to a northward displacement of striped marlin in the North Pacific Ocean. Use of a simple predictor of water temperature to describe future distribution, as in several previous studies, may not be robust, which emphasizes that variables other than sea surface temperatures from bioclimatic models are needed to understand future changes in the distribution of large pelagic species.

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