scholarly journals External Validation of a Nomogram and Risk Grouping System for Predicting Individual Prognosis of Patients With Medulloblastoma

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chengcheng Guo ◽  
Dunchen Yao ◽  
Xiaoping Lin ◽  
He Huang ◽  
Ji Zhang ◽  
...  

Background: Medulloblastoma (MB) is one of the most malignant neuroepithelial tumors in the central nervous system. This study aimed to establish an effective prognostic nomogram and risk grouping system for predicting overall survival (OS) of patients with MB.Materials and Methods: The nomogram was constructed based on data from the database of Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER). This database consisted of 2,824 patients with medulloblastoma and was used as the training cohort. The data of another additional 161 patients treated at the Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center (SYSUCC) were used as the external validation cohort. Cox regression analysis was used to select independent prognostic factors. Concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve were used to predict the prognostic effect of the nomogram for overall survival.Results: In the training cohort, Cox regression analyses showed that the prognostic factors included histopathology, surgery, radiotherapy, chemotherapy, tumor size, dissemination, and age at diagnosis. The internal and external validated C-indexes were 0.681 and 0.644, respectively. Calibration curves showed that the nomogram was able to predict 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS for patients with MB precisely. Using the training cohort, a risk grouping system was built, which could perfectly classify patients into four risk nomogroups with a 5-year survival rate of 83.9%, 76.5%, 64.5%, and 46.8%, respectively.Conclusion: We built and validated a nomogram and risk grouping system that can provide individual prediction of OS and distinguish MB patients from different risk groups. This nomogram and risk grouping system could help clinicians making better treatment plan and prognostic assessment.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chao Zhang ◽  
Haixiao Wu ◽  
Guijun Xu ◽  
Wenjuan Ma ◽  
Lisha Qi ◽  
...  

Abstract Background: Osteosarcoma is the most common primary malignant bone tumor. The current study was conducted to describe the general condition of patients with primary osteosarcoma in a single cancer center in Tianjin, China and to investigate the associated factors in osteosarcoma patients with lung metastasis. Methods: From February 2009 to October 2020, patients from Tianjin Medical University Cancer Institute and Hospital, China were retrospectively analyzed. The Kaplan–Meier method was used to evaluate the overall survival of osteosarcoma patients. Prognostic factors of patients with osteosarcoma were identified by the Cox proportional hazard regression analysis. Risk factor of lung metastasis in osteosarcoma were investigated by the logistic regression model. Results: A total of 203 patients were involved and 150 patients were successfully followed up for survival status. The 5-year survival rate of osteo-sarcoma patients was 70.0%. Surgery, bone and lung metastasis were the significant prognostic factors in multivariable Cox regression analysis. Twenty-one (10.3%) patients showed lung metastasis at the diagnosis of osteosarcoma and 67 (33%) lung metastases during the later course. T3 stage (OR=11.415, 95%CI 1.362-95.677, P=0.025) and synchronous bone metastasis (OR=6.437, 95%CI 1.69-24.51, P=0.006) were risk factors of synchronous lung metastasis occurrence. Good necrosis (≥90%, OR=0.097, 95%CI 0.028-0.332, P=0.000) and elevated Ki-67 (≥50%, OR=4.529, 95%CI 1.241-16.524, P=0.022) were proved to be significantly associated with metachronous lung metastasis occurrence. Conclusion: The overall survival, prognostic factors and risk factors for lung metastasis in this single center provided insight about osteosarcoma management.


2021 ◽  
Vol 11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhen Tan ◽  
Yubin Lei ◽  
Bo Zhang ◽  
Si Shi ◽  
Jiang Liu ◽  
...  

BackgroundPancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is one of the most invasive solid malignancies. Immunotherapy and targeted therapy confirmed an existing certain curative effect in treating PDAC. The aim of this study was to develop an immune-related molecular marker to enhance the ability to predict Stages III and IV PDAC patients.MethodIn this study, weighted gene co-expression network (WGCNA) analysis and a deconvolution algorithm (CIBERSORT) that evaluated the cellular constituent of immune cells were used to evaluate PDAC expression data from the GEO (Gene Expression Omnibus) datasets, and identify modules related to CD4+ T cells. LASSO Cox regression analysis and Kaplan–Meier curve were applied to select and build prognostic multi-gene signature in TCGA Stages III and IV PDAC patients (N = 126). This was followed by independent Stages III and IV validation of the gene signature in the International Cancer Genome Consortium (ICGC, N = 62) and the Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center (FUSCC, N = 42) cohort. Inherited germline mutations and tumor immunity exploration were applied to elucidate the molecular mechanisms in PDAC. Univariate and Multivariate Cox regression analyses were applied to verify the independent prognostic factors. Finally, a prognostic nomogram was created according to the TCGA-PDAC dataset.ResultsA four-gene signature comprising NAPSB, ZNF831, CXCL9 and PYHIN1 was established to predict overall survival of PDAC. This signature also robustly predicted survival in two independent validation cohorts. The four-gene signature could divide patients into high and low-risk groups with disparity overall survival verified by a Log-rank test. Expression of four genes positively correlated with immunosuppression activity (PD-L1 and PD1). Immune-related genes nomogram and corresponding calibration curves showed significant performance for predicting 3-year survival in TCGA-PDAC dataset.ConclusionWe constructed a novel four-gene signature to predict the prognosis of Stages III and IV PDAC patients by applying WGCNA and CIBERSORT algorithm scoring to transcriptome data different from traditional methods of filtrating for differential genes in cancer and healthy tissues. The findings may provide reference to predict survival and was beneficial to individualized management for advanced PDAC patients.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lijie Jiang ◽  
Tengjiao Lin ◽  
Yu Zhang ◽  
Wenxiang Gao ◽  
Jie Deng ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Increasing evidence indicates that the pathology and the modified Kadish system have some influence on the prognosis of esthesioneuroblastoma (ENB). However, an accurate system to combine pathology with a modified Kadish system has not been established. Methods This study aimed to set up and evaluate a model to predict overall survival (OS) accurately in ENB, including clinical characteristics, treatment and pathological variables. We screened the information of patients with ENB between January 1, 1976, and December 30, 2016 from the National Cancer Institute Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program as a training cohort. The validation cohort consisted of patients with ENB at Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center and The First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University in the same period, and 87 patients were identified. The Pearson’s chi-squared test was used to assess significance of clinicopathological and demographic characteristics. We used the Cox proportional hazards model to examine univariate and multivariate analyses. The model coefficients were used to calculate the Hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Prognostic factors with a p- value < 0.05 in multivariate analysis were included in the nomogram. The concordance index (c-index) and calibration curve were used to evaluate the predictive power of the nomogram. Results The c-index of training cohort and validation cohort are 0.737 (95% CI, 0.709 to 0.765) and 0.791 (95% CI, 0.767 to 0.815) respectively. The calibration curves revealed a good agreement between the nomogram prediction and actual observation regarding the probability of 3-year and 5-year survival. We used a nomogram to calculate the 3-year and 5-year growth probability and stratified patients into three risk groups. Conclusions The nomogram provided the risk group information and identified mortality risk and can serve as a reference for designing a reasonable follow-up plan.


Blood ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 118 (21) ◽  
pp. 4241-4241
Author(s):  
Kendra L. Sweet ◽  
Robert M. Crescentini ◽  
Jennifer L. Cultrera ◽  
Jeffrey E Lancet ◽  
Rami S. Komrokji

Abstract 4241 Background: Acute lymphocytic leukemia (ALL) incidence is approximately 4000 cases per year in the USA. Several standard induction regimens are used upfront for the treatment of ALL. The HyperCVAD regimen is currently a widely used upfront treatment option for adult ALL patients based on pioneer work at MD Anderson Cancer Center (MDACC). Here we present our experience with the HyperCVAD regimen treating ALL at Moffitt Cancer Center (MCC), representing the largest cohort treated with this regimen outside MDACC. Methods: Patients who were diagnosed and treated at MCC with ALL were identified through the MCC Total Cancer Care database. Individual charts were reviewed. All patients treated with the HyperCVAD regimen frontline were included in this analysis. The HyperCVAD regimen was administered as originally described at MDACC. Philadelphia positive patients were treated with addition of tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKI) (imatinib or dasatinib). Descriptive data are reported, t-test was used to compare continuous variables, chi square test for categorical variables, Kaplan Meier curves were used for overall survival (OS). Log rank test was used to compare survival times between groups. Cox regression analysis was used for multivariable analysis. All analyses were conducted using SPSS version 19.0 Results: Between 1/1/2002 and 6/30/2011, 100 ALL patients were treated with HyperCVAD at MCC. The median age was 45 years (range 18–83), 26 were above age of 60 years and 26 were below age of 30 years. Sixty three percent were male and 37% were female. Sixty five percent were white, 6% were African America, 7% were Hispanic and 22% were described as other. B-Cell ALL accounted for 83% of patients, while the other 17% had T-Cell origin. Of the 100 patients, 23% of patients were Philadelphia chromosome positive, while 72% were negative, and in 5% karyotype was unknown. Splenomegaly was present at diagnosis in 18% of patients, while 17% presented with lymphadenopathy. Twenty-three percent of patients presented with a WBC of 50,000 or greater. CNS disease was noted in 9% of patients at diagnosis. Seventy-six percent achieved a complete response (CR), while 12% had refractory disease. Response to frontline was not documented in 12% of patients. The median overall survival was 27 months (95% CI 15.6–38.3). In univariable analysis, no difference in outcome was observed based on gender, race, Philadelphia chromosome positivity, B or T-cell origin, presence of lymphadenopathy, splenomegaly, WBC >50,000 or CNS disease at presentation. Age was a significant prognostic factor. The median OS for patients <60 years old was 34 months (95% CI 20.8–47.), and 16 months for patients >60 years old (95% CI 6.9–25.1) (p= 0.006) (figure-1) The median OS was higher in patients who achieved CR with frontline chemotherapy. OS was 34 months (95% CI 22.5–45.4) compared to 13 months in patients who did not achieve CR after frontline (95% CI 7.3–18.7) (p=< 0.005). Thirty-eight patients proceeded to allogeneic SCT. The median OS was 40 months in patients who proceeded to allogeneic SCT compared with 16 months in patients who did not (p=0.002). In Cox regression analysis, achieving CR with frontline induction, and allogeneic SCT were statistically significant independent variables for OS for adult patients with ALL. The odds ratio was 3.4 in patients achieving CR with frontline therapy, and 3.1 in patients who underwent allogeneic SCT. Conclusion: To our knowledge, this cohort represents the largest group of ALL patients treated outside MDACC with HyperCVAD based regimens, with similar overall results in the setting of tertiary centers. Achievement of CR after frontline therapy, and undergoing allogeneic SCT were statistically significant prognostic indicators. The outcome of elderly patients (age >60) was inferior. In the elderly population there were lower rates of CR and less number of patients proceeded to allogeneic SCT. The outcome in Philadelphia chromosome positive ALL has improved with the introduction of TKI’s and allogeneic SCT. Disclosures: No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
muyuan liu ◽  
Litian Tong ◽  
Manbin Xu ◽  
Xiang Xu ◽  
Bin Liang ◽  
...  

Abstract Background: Due to the low incidence of mucoepidermoid carcinoma, there lacks sufficient studies for determining optimal treatment and predicting prognosis. The purpose of this study was to develop prognostic nomograms, to predict overall survival and disease-specific survival (DSS) of oral and oropharyngeal mucoepidermoid carcinoma patients, using the National Cancer Institute’s Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Methods: Clinicopathological and follow-up data of patients diagnosed with oral and oropharyngeal mucoepidermoid carcinoma between 2004 and 2017 were collected from the SEER database. The Kaplan-Meier method with the log-rank test was employed to identify single prognostic factors. Multivariate Cox regression was utilized to identify independent prognostic factors. C-index, area under the ROC curve (AUC) and calibration curves were used to assess performance of the prognostic nomograms. Results: A total of 1230 patients with oral and oropharyngeal mucoepidermoid carcinoma were enrolled in the present study. After multivariate Cox regression analysis, age, sex, tumor subsite, T stage, N stage, M stage, grade and surgery were identified as independent prognostic factors for overall survival. T stage, N stage, M stage, grade and surgery were identified as independent prognostic factors for disease-specific survival. Nomograms were constructed to predict the overall survival and disease-specific survival based on the independent prognostic factors. The fitted nomograms possessed excellent prediction accuracy, with a C-index of 0.899 for OS prediction and 0.893 for DSS prediction. Internal validation by computing the bootstrap calibration plots, using the validation set, indicated excellent performance by the nomograms. Conclusion: The prognostic nomograms developed, based on individual clinicopathological characteristics, in the present study, accurately predicted the overall survival and disease-specific survival of patients with oral and oropharyngeal mucoepidermoid carcinoma.


2019 ◽  
Vol 50 (3) ◽  
pp. 261-269
Author(s):  
Jieyun Zhang ◽  
Yue Yang ◽  
Xiaojian Fu ◽  
Weijian Guo

Abstract Purpose Nomograms are intuitive tools for individualized cancer prognosis. We sought to develop a clinical nomogram for prediction of overall survival and cancer-specific survival for patients with colorectal cancer. Methods Patients with colorectal cancer diagnosed between 1988 and 2006 and those who underwent surgery were retrieved from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database and randomly divided into the training (n = 119 797) and validation (n = 119 797) cohorts. Log-rank and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used in our analysis. To find out death from other cancer causes and non-cancer causes, a competing-risks model was used, based on which we integrated these significant prognostic factors into nomograms and subjected the nomograms to bootstrap internal validation and to external validation. Results The 1-, 3-, 5- and 10-year probabilities of overall survival in patients of colorectal cancer after surgery intervention were 83.04, 65.54, 54.79 and 38.62%, respectively. The 1-, 3-, 5- and 10-year cancer-specific survival was 87.36, 73.44, 66.22 and 59.11%, respectively. Nine independent prognostic factors for overall survival and nine independent prognostic factors for cancer specific survival were included to build the nomograms. Internal and external validation CI indexes of overall survival were 0.722 and 0.721, and those of cancer-specific survival were 0.765 and 0.766, which was satisfactory. Conclusions Nomograms for prediction of overall survival and cancer-specific survival of patients with colorectal cancer. Performance of the model was excellent. This practical prognostic model may help clinicians in decision-making and design of clinical studies.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qian Huang ◽  
Jie Liu ◽  
Huifang Cai ◽  
Qi Zhang ◽  
Lina Wang

Abstract Background Pulmonary large-cell neuroendocrine carcinoma (LCNEC) is a rare primary malignant tumor with a poor prognosis, and surgery is the main treatment. However, there are no effective predictive tools to assess the prognosis of postoperative patients. Our aim is to identify prognostic factors and construct nomogram to accurately assess prognosis. Methods Patients were identified in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Based on the results of Cox regression analysis, construct nomogram for predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival. The predictive performance of nomogram was evaluated using the consistency index (C-index), the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC), and calibration plots. Results We finally screened 903 patients with pulmonary LCNEC who underwent surgery. The Cox regression analysis showed that age, SEER stage, T stage, N stage, M stage, tumor size, and chemotherapy were independent prognostic factors for overall survival (P<0.05). The C-index of the nomogram is 0.681 on the training cohort and 0.675 on the validation cohort. The AUC and calibration plots show that the nomogram has good performance. Conclusion We constructed and validated nomogram for predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival of patients with pulmonary LCNEC after surgery. Our nomogram provides reference information for assessing the overall survival of these patients.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yang-Yu Huang ◽  
Guowei Ma ◽  
Shen-Hua Liang ◽  
Lei-Lei Wu ◽  
Xuan Liu

Abstract Background: Occult breast cancer is a rare breast tumor, whose prognostic nomogram model has not been established. Thus, we aim to develop and validate a nomogram for evaluating the overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) of patients with occult breast cancer. Methods: Between 2004 and 2015, 704 eligible occult breast cancer patients were screened from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database using specific inclusion and exclusion criteria and then included in the surveillance. They were randomly divided into a training cohort (n = 494) and a validation cohort (N = 210). Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were performed to explore independent prognostic factors and establish two survival-related nomograms. Area under the curve (AUC), consistency index (C index), internal and external validation calibration curve, decision curve analysis (DCA), Kaplan-Meier analysis, and subgroup analysis were used to evaluate the nomogram. Results: A total of seven variables were considered to be independent prognostic factors for overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS): age, chemotherapy, radiotherapy, Progesterone receptor (PR) status, N stage, number of lymph node examinations, and number of positive lymph nodes. In the training cohort, the OS nomogram-predicted AUC for three, five, and ten years were 0.792, 0.775, and 0.783, respectively, while those of the CSS nomogram were 0.807, 0.817, and 0.812, respectively. The calibration chart showed excellent agreement between the actual and the nomogram-predicted survival rates in both the training and validation cohorts. The C-index values ​​of the OS nomogram in the training and validation cohorts were 0.762 and 0.782, respectively, while those ​​of the CSS nomogram were 0.786 and 0.816, respectively. DCA and subgroup analysis proved the usefulness of nomograms. Conclusion: The developed nomogram provided a comprehensive visual model of the risk of each prognostic factor. It can be conveniently used as a personalized prediction tool for the prognosis of occult breast cancer patients.


2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 15-32
Author(s):  
Minling LIU ◽  
Wei DAI ◽  
Mengyuan ZHU ◽  
Xueying LI ◽  
Min WEI ◽  
...  

Purpose: TNBC with germline BRCA1/2 mutation (gBRCAm) have higher sensitivity to DNA damaging agents including platinum-based chemotherapy and PARP inhibitors. But the treatment of TNBC without gBRCAm remains challenging. This study aimed to develop a long non-coding RNA (lncRNA) signature of TNBC patients without gBRCAm to improve risk stratification and optimize individualized treatment. Methods: 98 TNBC patients without gBRCAm were acquired from The Cancer Genome Atlas database. The univariable Cox regression analysis and LASSO Cox regression model were applied to establish an lncRNA signature in the training cohort. Then Kaplan–Meier survival curve and time-dependent ROC curve were used to validate the prognostic ability of the signature. The qPCR assay was performed to confirm the expressions and clinicopathological correlations of two potential lncRNAs HAGLROS and TONSL-AS1 in 30 paired clinical triple-negative breast cancer samples without gBRCAm. Results: We developed an 8-lncRNA signature in the training cohort including HAGLROS, AL139002.1, AL391244.2, AP000696.1, AL391056.1, AL513304.1, TONSL-AS1 and AL031008.1. Patients with higher risk scores showed significantly worse overall survival compared to those with lower risk scores (P=0.00018 and P =0.0068 respectively). 30 paired specimens of TNBC without gBRCAm in our center showed that two potential lncRNAs HAGLROS and TONSL-AS1 were found frequently overexpressed, and significantly associated with tumor grade and invasion. Conclusion: We constructed a novel 8-lncRNA signature which significantly associated with the overall survival of TNBC patients without gBRCAm. Among those 8 lncRNAs, HAGLROS and TONSL-AS1 may be potential therapeutic targets which function needed further exploration.


2021 ◽  
Vol 28 ◽  
pp. 107327482110367
Author(s):  
Fengshuo Xu ◽  
Fanfan Zhao ◽  
Xiaojie Feng ◽  
Chengzhuo Li ◽  
Didi Han ◽  
...  

Introduction The purpose of this study was to construct and validate a nomogram for predicting cancer-specific survival (CSS) in undifferentiated pleomorphic sarcoma (UPS) patients at 3, 5, and 8 years after the diagnosis. Methods Data for UPS patients were extracted from the SEER (Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results) database. The patients were randomly divided into a training cohort (70%) and a validation cohort (30%). The backward stepwise Cox regression model was used to select independent prognostic factors. All of the factors were integrated into the nomogram to predict the CSS rates in UPS patients at 3, 5, and 8 years after the diagnosis. The nomogram’ s performance was then validated using multiple indicators, including the area under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), consistency index (C-index), calibration curve, decision-curve analysis (DCA), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), and net reclassification improvement (NRI). Results This study included 2,009 UPS patients. Ten prognostic factors were identified after analysis of the Cox regression model in the training cohort, which were year of diagnosis, age, race, primary site, histological grade, T, N, M stage, surgery status, and insurance status. The nomogram was then constructed and validated internally and externally. The relatively high C-indexes and AUC values indicated that the nomogram has good discrimination ability. The calibration curves revealed that the nomogram was well calibrated. NRI and IDI values were both improved, indicating that our nomogram was superior to the AJCC (American Joint Committee on Cancer) system. DCA curves demonstrated that the nomogram was clinically useful. Conclusions The first nomogram for predicting the prognosis of UPS patients has been constructed and validated. Its usability and performance showed that the nomogram can be applied to clinical practice. However, further external validation is still needed.


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