scholarly journals Toward the Impact of Non-pharmaceutical Interventions and Vaccination on the COVID-19 Pandemic With Time-Dependent SEIR Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuexin Li ◽  
Linqiang Ge ◽  
Yang Zhou ◽  
Xuan Cao ◽  
Jingyi Zheng
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic Models ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
National Level ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
World Health ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Level Data ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The U.S

The outbreak of COVID-19, caused by the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, has been declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO) in March, 2020 and rapidly spread to over 210 countries and territories around the world. By December 24, there are over 77M cumulative confirmed cases with more than 1.72M deaths worldwide. To mathematically describe the dynamic of the COVID-19 pandemic, we propose a time-dependent SEIR model considering the incubation period. Furthermore, we take immunity, reinfection, and vaccination into account and propose the SEVIS model. Unlike the classic SIR based models with constant parameters, our dynamic models not only predicts the number of cases, but also monitors the trajectories of changing parameters, such as transmission rate, recovery rate, and the basic reproduction number. Tracking these parameters, we observe the significant decrease in the transmission rate in the U.S. after the authority announced a series of orders aiming to prevent the spread of the virus, such as closing non-essential businesses and lockdown restrictions. Months later, as restrictions being gradually lifted, we notice a new surge of infection emerges as the transmission rates show increasing trends in some states. Using our epidemiology models, people can track, timely monitor, and predict the COVID-19 pandemic with precision. To illustrate and validate our model, we use the national level data (the U.S.) and the state level data (New York and North Dakota), and the resulting relative prediction errors for the infected group and recovered group are mostly lower than 0.5%. We also simulate the long-term development of the pandemic based on our proposed models to explore when the crisis will end under certain conditions.

scholarly journals Cancer in COVID-19 Times – A Narrative Review of Guidelines and Recommendations

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 119-129
Author(s):  
Alecsandra Gorzo ◽  
Daniel Sur
Keyword(s):  
Resource Allocation ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Severe Infection ◽  
World Health ◽  
Atypical Pneumonia ◽  
The World ◽  
Immunocompromised Status ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Guidelines And Recommendations ◽  
The Impact

"Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was first reported to produce atypical pneumonia in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. This outbreak escalated very quickly due to the high transmission rate, and therefore, on March 11, 2020, it was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization. COVID-19 caused a massive hospital overload worldwide and instigated urgent adjustments in resource allocation. Compared to the general population, cancer patients are considered to be at high risk of developing severe infection due to their immunocompromised status. The purpose of this review was to highlight the impact of the COVD-19 pandemic on cancer care, available guidelines, and recommendations."

Characterizing the effectiveness of COVID-19 mitigation measures: A data-centric approach (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lukman Olagoke ◽  
Ahmet E. Topcu
Keyword(s):  
Control Measure ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
World Health ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
The World ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
The Impact

BACKGROUND COVID-19 represents a serious threat to both national health and economic systems. To curb this pandemic, the World Health Organization (WHO) issued a series of COVID-19 public safety guidelines. Different countries around the world initiated different measures in line with the WHO guidelines to mitigate and investigate the spread of COVID-19 in their territories. OBJECTIVE The aim of this paper is to quantitatively evaluate the effectiveness of these control measures using a data-centric approach. METHODS We begin with a simple text analysis of coronavirus-related articles and show that reports on similar outbreaks in the past strongly proposed similar control measures. This reaffirms the fact that these control measures are in order. Subsequently, we propose a simple performance statistic that quantifies general performance and performance under the different measures that were initiated. A density based clustering of based on performance statistic was carried out to group countries based on performance. RESULTS The performance statistic helps evaluate quantitatively the impact of COVID-19 control measures. Countries tend show variability in performance under different control measures. The performance statistic has negative correlation with cases of death which is a useful characteristics for COVID-19 control measure performance analysis. A web-based time-line visualization that enables comparison of performances and cases across continents and subregions is presented. CONCLUSIONS The performance metric is relevant for the analysis of the impact of COVID-19 control measures. This can help caregivers and policymakers identify effective control measures and reduce cases of death due to COVID-19. The interactive web visualizer provides easily digested and quick feedback to augment decision-making processes in the COVID-19 response measures evaluation. CLINICALTRIAL Not Applicable

Impact of hydroxychloroquin/azithromycin protocol on COVID-19 case-fatality rate reduction in Algeria. (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmed Youssef Kada
Keyword(s):  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Doubling Time ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
World Health ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Therapeutic Protocol ◽  
First Case ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact ◽  
At Home

BACKGROUND Covid-19 is an emerging infectious disease like viral zoonosis caused by new coronavirus SARS CoV 2. On December 31, 2019, Wuhan Municipal Health Commission in Hubei province (China) reported cases of pneumonia, the origin of which is a new coronavirus. Rapidly extendable around the world, the World Health Organization (WHO) declares it pandemic on March 11, 2020. This pandemic reaches Algeria on February 25, 2020, date on which the Algerian minister of health, announced the first case of Covid-19, a foreign citizen. From March 1, a cluster is formed in Blida and becomes the epicentre of the coronavirus epidemic in Algeria, its total quarantine is established on March 24, 2020, it will be smoothly alleviated on April 24. A therapeutic protocol based on hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin was put in place on March 23, for complicated cases, it was extended to all the cases confirmed on April 06. OBJECTIVE This study aimed to demonstrate the effectiveness of hydroxychloroquin/azithromycin protocol in Algeria, in particular after its extension to all patients diagnosed COVID-19 positive on RT-PCR test. We were able to illustrate this fact graphically, but not to prove it statistically because the design of our study, indeed in the 7 days which followed generalization of therapeutic protocol, case fatality rate decrease and doubling time increase, thus confirming the impact of wide and early prescription of hydroxychloroquin/azithromycin protocol. METHODS We have analyzed the data collected from press releases and follow-ups published daily by the Ministry of Health, we have studied the possible correlations of these data with certain events or decisions having a possible impact on their development, such as confinement at home and its reduction, the prescription of hydroxychloroquine/azithromycin combination for serious patients and its extension to all positive COVID subjects. Results are presented in graphics, the data collection was closed on 31/05/2020. RESULTS Covid-19 pandemic spreads from February 25, 2020, when a foreign citizen is tested positive, on March 1 a cluster is formed in the city of Blida where sixteen members of the same family are infected during a wedding party. Wilaya of Blida becomes the epicentre of coronavirus epidemic in Algeria and lockdown measures taken, while the number of national cases diagnosed begins to increases In any event, the association of early containment measures combined with a generalized initial treatment for all positive cases, whatever their degree of severity, will have contributed to a reduction in the fatality rate of COVID 19 and a slowing down of its doubling time. CONCLUSIONS In Algeria, the rapid combination of rigorous containment measure at home and early generalized treatment with hydroxychloroquin have demonstrated their effectiveness in terms of morbidity and mortality, the classic measures of social distancing and hygiene will make it possible to perpetuate these results by reducing viral transmission, the only unknown, the reopening procedure which can only be started after being surrounded by precautions aimed at ensuring the understanding of the population. CLINICALTRIAL Algeria, Covid-19, pandemic, hydroxychloroquin, azithromycin, case fatality rate

THE INFLUENCE OF SCOTTISH ACCOUNTANTS IN THE UNITED STATES: THE EARLY CASE OF THE SOCIETY OF ACCOUNTANTS IN EDINBURGH

1997 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 117-141 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. A. LEE
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
General Theory ◽  
Research Program ◽  
The United States ◽  
The World ◽  
Early Case ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Chartered Accountants ◽  
The U.S

This study represents part of a long-term research program to investigate the influence of U.K. accountants on the development of professional accountancy in other parts of the world. It examines the impact of a small group of Scottish chartered accountants who emigrated to the U.S. in the late 1800s and early 1900s. Set against a general theory of emigration, the study's main results reveal the significant involvement of this group in the founding and development of U.S. accountancy. The influence is predominantly with respect to public accountancy and its main institutional organizations. Several of the individuals achieved considerable eminence in U.S. public accountancy.

scholarly journals The Impact of Ultraviolet Radiation on the Aetiology and Development of Uveal Melanoma

Cancers ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 1700
Author(s):  
Melissa Chalada ◽  
Charmaine A. Ramlogan-Steel ◽  
Bijay P. Dhungel ◽  
Christopher J. Layton ◽  
Jason C. Steel
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Ultraviolet Radiation ◽  
Uveal Melanoma ◽  
World Health Organisation ◽  
World Health ◽  
Genetic Mutations ◽  
High Incidence ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact

Uveal melanoma (UM) is currently classified by the World Health Organisation as a melanoma caused by risk factors other than cumulative solar damage. However, factors relating to ultraviolet radiation (UVR) susceptibility such as light-coloured skin and eyes, propensity to burn, and proximity to the equator, frequently correlate with higher risk of UM. These risk factors echo those of the far more common cutaneous melanoma (CM), which is widely accepted to be caused by excessive UVR exposure, suggesting a role of UVR in the development and progression of a proportion of UM. Indeed, this could mean that countries, such as Australia, with high UVR exposure and the highest incidences of CM would represent a similarly high incidence of UM if UVR exposure is truly involved. Most cases of UM lack the typical genetic mutations that are related to UVR damage, although recent evidence in a small minority of cases has shown otherwise. This review therefore reassesses statistical, environmental, anatomical, and physiological evidence for and against the role of UVR in the aetiology of UM.

Defining Preterm Birth and Stillbirth in the Western Pacific: A Systematic Review

2021 ◽  
pp. 101053952110260
Author(s):  
Mairead Connolly ◽  
Laura Phung ◽  
Elise Farrington ◽  
Michelle J. L. Scoullar ◽  
Alyce N. Wilson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Preterm Birth ◽  
National Level ◽  
Health Indicators ◽  
Western Pacific ◽  
World Health ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
The Impact

Preterm birth and stillbirth are important global perinatal health indicators. Definitions of these indicators can differ between countries, affecting comparability of preterm birth and stillbirth rates across countries. This study aimed to document national-level adherence to World Health Organization (WHO) definitions of preterm birth and stillbirth in the WHO Western Pacific region. A systematic search of government health websites and 4 electronic databases was conducted. Any official report or published study describing the national definition of preterm birth or stillbirth published between 2000 and 2020 was eligible for inclusion. A total of 58 data sources from 21 countries were identified. There was considerable variation in how preterm birth and stillbirth was defined across the region. The most frequently used lower gestational age threshold for viability of preterm birth was 28 weeks gestation (range 20-28 weeks), and stillbirth was most frequently classified from 20 weeks gestation (range 12-28 weeks). High-income countries more frequently used earlier gestational ages for preterm birth and stillbirth compared with low- to middle-income countries. The findings highlight the importance of clear, standardized, internationally comparable definitions for perinatal indicators. Further research is needed to determine the impact on regional preterm birth and stillbirth rates.

scholarly journals Impact of public health interventions to curb SARS-CoV-2 spread assessed by an evidence-educated Delphi panel and tailored SEIR model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bernd Brüggenjürgen ◽  
Hans-Peter Stricker ◽  
Lilian Krist ◽  
Miriam Ortiz ◽  
Thomas Reinhold ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Latency Period ◽  
Policy Decision ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Delphi Panel ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Health Policy Decision ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Aim To use a Delphi-panel-based assessment of the effectiveness of different non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) in order to retrospectively approximate and to prospectively predict the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic progression via a SEIR model (susceptible, exposed, infectious, removed). Methods We applied an evidence-educated Delphi-panel approach to elicit the impact of NPIs on the SARS-CoV-2 transmission rate R0 in Germany. Effectiveness was defined as the product of efficacy and compliance. A discrete, deterministic SEIR model with time step of 1 day, a latency period of 1.8 days, duration of infectiousness of 5 days, and a share of the total population of 15% assumed to be protected by immunity was developed in order to estimate the impact of selected NPI measures on the course of the pandemic. The model was populated with the Delphi-panel results and varied in sensitivity analyses. Results Efficacy and compliance estimates for the three most effective NPIs were as follows: test and isolate 49% (efficacy)/78% (compliance), keeping distance 42%/74%, personal protection masks (cloth masks or other face masks) 33%/79%. Applying all NPI effectiveness estimates to the SEIR model resulted in a valid replication of reported occurrence of the German SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. A combination of four NPIs at consented compliance rates might curb the CoViD-19 pandemic. Conclusion Employing an evidence-educated Delphi-panel approach can support SARS-CoV-2 modelling. Future curbing scenarios require a combination of NPIs. A Delphi-panel-based NPI assessment and modelling might support public health policy decision making by informing sequence and number of needed public health measures.

Mental Health Consequences of Intimate Partner Violence Against Women in El Salvador

2021 ◽  
pp. 107780122097880
Author(s):  
Laura Navarro-Mantas ◽  
Soledad de Lemus ◽  
Jesús L. Megías
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
Intimate Partner Violence ◽  
El Salvador ◽  
Violence Against Women ◽  
Partner Violence ◽  
Common Mental Disorders ◽  
Intimate Partner ◽  
World Health ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact

Violence against women (VAW) is currently one of the main problems in El Salvador, which leads the ranking of femicides in the world. We conducted the first national survey on VAW in El Salvador following the World Health Organization (WHO) methodology, to determine the impact of violence on women’s mental health ( N = 1,274). Women who had experienced intimate partner violence showed significantly poorer mental health and more suicidal ideations. Common mental disorders were significantly associated with the experience of all forms of violence, after adjusting for sociodemographic variables and stressful life experiences. The results are discussed in connection with the primary care protocols and the design of public policies.

scholarly journals A modified SEIR model to predict the behavior of the early stage in coronavirus and coronavirus-like outbreaks

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Wilfredo Angulo ◽  
José M. Ramírez ◽  
Dany De Cecchis ◽  
Juan Primera ◽  
Henry Pacheco ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Molecular Structure ◽  
Risk Perceptions ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Probable Site ◽  
Adjusted Model ◽  
The Impact

AbstractCOVID-19 is a highly infectious disease that emerged in China at the end of 2019. The COVID-19 pandemic is the first known pandemic caused by a coronavirus, namely, the new and emerging SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus. In the present work, we present simulations of the initial outbreak of this new coronavirus using a modified transmission rate SEIR model that takes into account the impact of government actions and the perception of risk by individuals in reaction to the proportion of fatal cases. The parameters related to these effects were fitted to the number of infected cases in the 33 provinces of China. The data for Hubei Province, the probable site of origin of the current pandemic, were considered as a particular case for the simulation and showed that the theoretical model reproduces the behavior of the data, thus indicating the importance of combining government actions and individual risk perceptions when the proportion of fatal cases is greater than $$4\%$$ 4 % . The results show that the adjusted model reproduces the behavior of the data quite well for some provinces, suggesting that the spread of the disease differs when different actions are evaluated. The proposed model could help to predict outbreaks of viruses with a biological and molecular structure similar to that of SARS-CoV-2.

scholarly journals The Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic and Lockdown Measures on Quality of Life among Italian General Population

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 289 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Stella Epifanio ◽  
Federica Andrei ◽  
Giacomo Mancini ◽  
Francesca Agostini ◽  
Marco Andrea Piombo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Quality Of Life ◽  
Online Survey ◽  
Physical Space ◽  
Sampling Strategy ◽  
World Health ◽  
Snowball Sampling ◽  
World Health Organization Quality ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact

The COVID-19 pandemic that has hit the world in the year 2020 has put a strain on our ability to cope with events and revolutionized our daily habits. On 9 March, Italy was forced to lockdown to prevent the spread of the infection, with measures including the mandatory closure of schools and nonessential activities, travel restrictions, and the obligation to spend entire weeks in the same physical space. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdown measures on quality of life (QoL) in a large Italian sample, in order to investigate possible differences in QoL levels related to both demographic and pandemic-specific variables. A total of 2251 Italian adults (1665 women, mainly young and middle adults) were recruited via a snowball sampling strategy. Participants were requested to answer to an online survey, which included demographic and COVID-related information items, and the World Health Organization Quality of Life BREF questionnaire (WHOQOL-BREF). The results showed statistically significant differences in QoL depending on a number of variables, including sex, area of residence in Italy, and being diagnosed with a medical/psychiatric condition. To our knowledge, this is the first study to assess QoL during COVID-19 pandemic in Italy, therefore the present findings can offer guidelines regarding which social groups are more vulnerable of a decline in QoL and would benefit of psychological interventions.

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